What determines oil prices?

[Dr.Masih Rezvani + 27]

With each passing year, oil seems to play an even greater role in the global economy. In the early days, finding oil during a drill was considered somewhat of a nuisance as the intended treasures were normally water or salt. It wasn't until 1857 that the first commercial oil well was drilled in Romania. The U.S. petroleum industry was born two years later with an intentional drilling in Titusville, Pa.

While much of the early demand for oil was for kerosene and oil lamps, it wasn't until 1901 that the first commercial well capable of mass production was drilled at a site known as Spindletop in southeastern Texas. This site produced more than 10,000 barrels of oil per day, more than all the other oil-producing wells in the United States combined. Many would argue that the modern oil era was born that day in 1901, as oil was soon to replace coal as the world's primary fuel source. Oil's use in fuels continues to be the primary factor in making it a high-demand commodity around the globe, but how are prices determined? (For more, read "How the Oil and Gas Industry Work.")

The Determinants of Oil Prices

With oil's stature as a high-demand global commodity comes the possibility that major fluctuations in price can have a significant economic impact. The two primary factors that impact the price of oil are:

 

• supply and demand
• market sentiment

The concept of supply and demand is fairly straightforward. As demand increases (or supply decreases) the price should go up. As demand decreases (or supply increases) the price should go down. Sound simple? (For background reading, see "Economics Basics: Demand and Supply.")

Not quite. The price of oil as we know it is actually set in the oil futures market. An oil futures contract is a binding agreement that gives one the right to purchase oil by the barrel at a predefined price on a predefined date in the future. Under a futures contract, both the buyer and the seller are obligated to fulfill their side of the transaction on the specified date.

 

The following are two types of futures traders:

 

• hedgers
• speculators

 

An example of a hedger would be an airline buying oil futures to guard against potential rising prices. An example of a speculator would be someone who is just guessing the price direction and has no intention of actually buying the product. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the majority of futures trading is done by speculators as less than 3 percent of transactions actually result in the purchaser of a futures contract taking possession of the commodity being traded.

 

The other key factor in determining oil prices is sentiment. The mere belief that oil demand will increase dramatically at some point in the future can result in a dramatic increase in oil prices in the present as speculators and hedgers alike snap up oil futures contracts. Of course, the opposite is also true. The mere belief that oil demand will decrease at some point in the future can result in a dramatic decrease in prices in the present as oil futures contracts are sold (possibly sold short as well), which means that prices can hinge on little more than market psychology at times.

When Economics of Oil Prices Don't Add Up

Basic supply-and-demand theory states that the more of a product is produced, the more cheaply it should sell, all things being equal. It’s a symbiotic dance. The reason more was produced in the first place is because it became more economically efficient (or no less economically efficient) to do so. If someone were to invent a well stimulation technique that could double an oil field’s output for only a small incremental cost, then with demand staying static, prices should fall.

 

Actually, supply has increased. Oil production in North America is at an all-time zenith, with fields in North Dakota and Alberta as fruitful as ever. Since the internal combustion engine still predominates on our roads, and demand hasn’t kept up with supply, shouldn’t gas be selling for nickels a gallon?

 

This is where theory butts up against practice. Production is high, but distribution and refinement aren’t keeping up with it. The United States builds an average of one refinery per decade, construction having slowed to a trickle since the 1970s. There’s actually a net loss: the United States has eight fewer refineries than it did in 2009. Still, the 142 remaining refineries in the country have more capacity than any other nation’s by a large margin. The reason we’re not awash in cheap oil is because those refineries operate at only 62 percent of capacity. Ask a refiner, and they’ll tell you that excess capacity is there to meet future demand. (For more, see: "How Does Crude Oil Affect Gas Prices?")

Commodity Price Cycle Affecting Oil Prices

Additionally, from a historical perspective, there appears to be a possible 29-year (plus or minus one or two years) cycle that governs the behavior of commodity prices in general. Since the beginning of oil's rise as a high-demand commodity in the early 1900s, major peaks in the commodities index have occurred in 1920, 1951 and 1980. Oil peaked with the commodities index in both 1920 and 1980. (Note: there was no real peak in oil in 1951 because it had been moving in a sideways trend since 1948 and continued to do so through 1968.) It is important to note that supply, demand and sentiment take precedence over cycles because cycles are just guidelines, not rules. (Find out how to invest and protect your investments in this slippery sector in "Peak Oil: What to Do When the Well Runs Dry.")

 

If one wishes to pursue his or her education of oil beyond this brief introduction, recommended educational material on oil can be obtained directly from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Information on the oil futures market can be obtained through the CME.

 

Market Forces Impacting Oil Prices

Then there’s the problem of cartels. Probably the single biggest influencer of oil prices is OPEC, made up of 15 countries (Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela); collectively, OPEC controls 40 percent of the world's supply of oil.

 

Although the organization’s charter doesn’t explicitly state this, OPEC was founded in the 1960s to – put it crudely – fix oil and gas prices. By restricting production, OPEC could force prices to rise, and thereby theoretically enjoy greater profits than if its member countries had each sold on the world market at the going rate. Throughout the 1970s and much of the 1980s, it followed this sound, if somewhat unethical, strategy.

 

To quote P. J. O’Rourke, certain people enter cartels because of greed; then, because of greed, they try to get out of the cartels. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC member countries often exceed their quotas, selling a few million extra barrels knowing that enforcers can’t really stop them from doing so. With Canada, China, Russia and the United States as non-members – and increasing their own output – OPEC is becoming limited in its ability to, as its mission euphemistically states, “ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers.” 

 

While the consortium has vowed to keep the price of oil above $100 a barrel for the foreseeable future, in mid-2014, it refused to cut oil production, even as prices began to tumble. As a result, the cost of crude fell from a peak of above $100 a barrel to below $50 a barrel. As of February 2018, oil prices are hovering slightly below $62.

 

The Bottom Line

Unlike most products, oil prices are not determined entirely by supply, demand and market sentiment toward the physical product. Rather, supply, demand and sentiment toward oil futures contracts, which are traded heavily by speculators, play a dominant role in price determination. Cyclical trends in the commodities market may also play a role. Regardless of how the price is ultimately determined, based on its use in fuels and countless consumer goods, it appears that oil will continue to be in high demand for the foreseeable future.

Edited August 8, 2019 by Dr.Masih Rezvani

[markslawson + 1,042]

On 8/9/2019 at 3:30 AM, Dr.Masih Rezvani said:

With oil's stature as a high-demand global commodity comes the possibility that major fluctuations in price can have a significant economic impact.

I wouldn't disagree with anything said in the article but I wonder about the necessity for saying it. Oil is one of the most studied and traded commodity - next down, by a long margin, is coffee - and all those traders and analysts (who would know the theory) can often be quite wrong about what will happen in the market. A prime example is when oil prices peaked at U$US140 late last decade. The major players then forecast it would keep going to $200 plus, only for prices to collapse. Why did prices peak then collapse? I have yet to see any explanation. One possibility is that several minor production issues had the cumulative effect of a large problem initially pushing prices up, then the boom-bust cycle of markets took over - but the fact that analysts still have to speculate years after the event shows how difficult it can be to forecast the market. The advent of fracking has changed the game  again. No wonder oil producers like to sell their future output forward and lock in existing prices. Who knows what's going to happen? Of course speculators set prices in those markets, as the do in almost all markets, but in oil and gas the forward markets have substantial uses. I note you talked about a price cycle in commodities. I'm not disputing that, but price cycles have been observed before (gold, securities markets in general), and have proved of little use in forecasting prices. 

[Dr.Masih Rezvani + 27]

8 hours ago, markslawson said:

I wouldn't disagree with anything said in the article but I wonder about the necessity for saying it. Oil is one of the most studied and traded commodity - next down, by a long margin, is coffee - and all those traders and analysts (who would know the theory) can often be quite wrong about what will happen in the market. A prime example is when oil prices peaked at U$US140 late last decade. The major players then forecast it would keep going to $200 plus, only for prices to collapse. Why did prices peak then collapse? I have yet to see any explanation. One possibility is that several minor production issues had the cumulative effect of a large problem initially pushing prices up, then the boom-bust cycle of markets took over - but the fact that analysts still have to speculate years after the event shows how difficult it can be to forecast the market. The advent of fracking has changed the game  again. No wonder oil producers like to sell their future output forward and lock in existing prices. Who knows what's going to happen? Of course speculators set prices in those markets, as the do in almost all markets, but in oil and gas the forward markets have substantial uses. I note you talked about a price cycle in commodities. I'm not disputing that, but price cycles have been observed before (gold, securities markets in general), and have proved of little use in forecasting prices.