'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil

[Alex Palamas + 52]

5 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

not everything is about you mate  

very correct, i am such a prosti that wants to be loved u cant imagine..

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Not really sure. Atleast historically this has been how the UKs approach. 

Personally, I think that a contributing factor to the East expansion was the need / want to create new markets and outsource production companies for European corporations. Also remember this was during the boom years - everybody had forgotten what a recessions was... We reaped the benefits and now we claim nobody told us that there could be a downside. Real mature. 

The nicest people (not me) would say that they just wanted to ensure a peaceful absorption of the failed states the USSR left..

Clearly cheaper outsourcing was a subject and it has worked (excellent german factories operate in Slovakia, Czechia etc etc..). The social effects to richer countries (mainly via immigration) are not being very positive at the moment (populism). I am curious to see when most eastern countries align economically what is going to happen with outsourcing.. Very very curious and big discussion subject..

I still think (just lateral understanding of history I guess past and near present) that british foreign policy is (also) nicely summarised in the Yes Minister clip!!

Edited August 27, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[David Jones + 84]

On ‎8‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 3:30 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Color me skeptical but I think this separation from the EU was just part of the larger picture of nationalism that is encircling the globe. Germany did the EU a lot of harm by allowing compassionate immigration, though Ms. Merkel did it for the right reasons. Great Britain wanted to take their country back over again: It has for centuries been an insular population totally absorbed in the niceties of minding the gap. In the end, opting out of the Schengen Agreement wasn't enough; they wanted to opt out of the whole mess!

I have to wonder though, does the UK remember why mass immigration became exacerbated? I would think they would be a bit more aware that the reason why so many Muslims are in fact in their country now is because the US felt it necessary to invade Iraq as well as Afghanistan and the UK decided to go along for the ride.  Expecting that the rest of the EU should take the brunt of a problem the UK was intimately connected to is quite unreasonable in my opinion as is any notion of closing off borders to refugees (does letting people drown in the Mediterranean by the thousands seem acceptable to people here I wonder?).

Had the US and UK focused on Afghanistan (ultimately the person they were seeking was found in the vicinity), Syria, Iraq and much of the middle east may be more stable today and thus there would certainly be less migration from those regions to deal with. You can't go about blowing countries to smithereens without consequences and if the idea is to engage in acts of military aggression against countries and deny refugees fleeing the carnage sanctuary, then the west would lose it's credibility as a positive force in the world. Loss of this credibility is a more serious issue than many seem to realize here as it would lead to a lot of destabilization on a global scale through lack of trust and cooperation.

As for what the UK might get from the US during/after a hard Brexit, the best they can hope from this administration is to be treated as a colony. That's what America First means in case the UK hasn't realized it yet, especially when the former is in a vulnerable position.

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, David Jones said:

I have to wonder though, does the UK remember why mass immigration became exacerbated? I would think they would be a bit more aware that the reason why so many Muslims are in fact in their country now is because the US felt it necessary to invade Iraq as well as Afghanistan and the UK decided to go along for the ride.  Expecting that the rest of the EU should take the brunt of a problem the UK was intimately connected to is quite unreasonable in my opinion as is any notion of closing off borders to refugees (does letting people drown in the Mediterranean by the thousands seem acceptable to people here I wonder?).

Had the US and UK focused on Afghanistan (ultimately the person they were seeking was found in the vicinity), Syria, Iraq and much of the middle east may be more stable today and thus there would certainly be less migration from those regions to deal with. You can't go about blowing countries to smithereens without consequences and if the idea is to engage in acts of military aggression against countries and deny refugees fleeing the carnage sanctuary, then the west would lose it's credibility as a positive force in the world. Loss of this credibility is a more serious issue than many seem to realize here as it would lead to a lot of destabilization on a global scale through lack of trust and cooperation.

As for what the UK might get from the US during/after a hard Brexit, the best they can hope from this administration is to be treated as a colony. That's what America First means in case the UK hasn't realized it yet, especially when the former is in a vulnerable position.

Certainly!! The different wars and/or destabilisation efforts (Syria, Libya, Africa etc..) have contributed heavily to the immigration problem.. I personally find it extremely interesting from the sociopolitical perspective to note how citizens, the "compact majority" of Ibsen, we are always so passive when our advanced militaries warmonger (some feel proud and safe as well) but become very animated and reactive (I appreciate and understand why) when our social comforts and relative or familiar normality is threatened.. It is also important to study and understand why or perhaps if, certain countries spent loads of energy trying to destabilise certain regions..

As Wilhelm Reich says in Listen Little Man "You are satisfied with the illusion that you govern - until the next war and the downfall of the new masters."

Edited August 27, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The nicest people (not me) would say that they just wanted to ensure a peaceful absorption of the failed states the USSR left..

Clearly cheaper outsourcing was a subject and it has worked (excellent german factories operate in Slovakia, Czechia etc etc..). The social effects to richer countries (mainly via immigration) are not being very positive at the moment (populism). I am curious to see when most eastern countries align economically what is going to happen with outsourcing.. Very very curious and big discussion subject..

I still think (just lateral understanding of history I guess past and near present) that british foreign policy is (also) nicely summarised in the Yes Minister clip!!

https://youtu.be/rvYuoWyk8iU

[Guest]

6 hours ago, David Jones said:

That's what America First means in case the UK hasn't realized it yet,

Are there many countries that don't put their own interests first?

''America First'' not exactly 'hold the front page' stuff from Trump is it?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

13 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Are there many countries that don't put their own interests first?

''America First'' not exactly 'hold the front page' stuff from Trump is it?

 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

17 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

I still think (just lateral understanding of history I guess past and near present) that british foreign policy is (also) nicely summarised in the Yes Minister clip!!

I disagree slightly - I think this was true till after WW2, but post WW2 I think the best summary would "trying to project power through alliance to the US". 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

9 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Are there many countries that don't put their own interests first?

''America First'' not exactly 'hold the front page' stuff from Trump is it?

I don't think anybody here has a problem with America first, but I think a cynical analysis of Trumps Brexit stand could be : Brexit weakens the UK and EU meaning that Trumpster can negotiate a better trade for the US with each party. And I really don't have a problem with that. UK voted to leave. End of. But it is foolish to think that Trump is supporting brexit / BoJo / Farage for ideological reasons.... 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

17 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The social effects to richer countries (mainly via immigration) are not being very positive at the moment (populism).

This is likely true of the muslim immigrants / refugees, but purely looking at financials I think low skilled labour migration from eastern Europe to Western Europe has been a financial benefit. I don't have any number for the UK, but I am pretty sure that agriculture in Western Europe would have died without this labour pool. 

There's a bit of a correlation between economic slowdown and the rise of anti immigration agendas... 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

20 hours ago, DayTrader said:

I don't think this is fair, I have been polite and read every word. I actually appreciate his passion and views unlike others here who have said 'anyone with brains voted remain'.  As stated before, the MAJORITY did not, and arguing this FACT and demanding reasons for wanting to leave because the vote did not go the way certain people wanted is beyond ridiculous and the idea of bothering to have a vote in the first place. 

I am NOT demanding any reasons. I respond to commentary and state that based on facts it is highly doubtfull that brexit will be a fiancial benefit to the UK. if people want to leave for sentimental reason; more power to them. I just think some people will become disappointed when they get what they wished for. That's all. 

p.s. I don't agree with how some opinions are expressed either

 

[Alex Palamas + 52]

3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

This is likely true of the muslim immigrants / refugees, but purely looking at financials I think low skilled labour migration from eastern Europe to Western Europe has been a financial benefit. I don't have any number for the UK, but I am pretty sure that agriculture in Western Europe would have died without this labour pool. 

There's a bit of a correlation between economic slowdown and the rise of anti immigration agendas... 

Yes sure, that is why I specifically say above the "social effects".. Financially, I also think the effect is overwhelmingly positive, especially in terms of wage competition and finding the right skills in every tier of the economic machinery.. The real issue is how populism is abusing the (often justifiable) social dissatisfaction of people.. 

I would really like once again to contribute few hard numbers on the financial (not social) contribution of EU migrants to the UK economy.. I really wish our UK friends check these numbers out, just for the sake of historical accuracy. Apologies to anybody who considers these numbers trivial or unimportant or is bored with the subject..

https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5

This is from the FT and it is simple numerical estimations basically. Cannot think how this can be overtly cooked but of course these numbers can be extrapolated in different ways..

Pls note figure 3 in particular and note the contribution differences.. Summary:

- European migrants paid substantially more in taxes to the government than they took in benefits or public services in 2016-17. 

- European migrants made a total contribution of £4.7bn to the public finances in 2016-17.  

- An average adult migrant from one of the original 13 EU member states (excluding the UK and Ireland) contributed £3,740 more to Britain’s exchequer than an average UK citizen 

- An eastern European migrant accession countries paid an average of £1,040 more. 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 minute ago, Alex Palamas said:

(often justifiable) social dissatisfaction of people.. 

how is it justifiable?

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

how is it justifiable?

You cannot expect a senior citizen for example with conservative and close-minded ideas to be happy and friendly towards cultures that he/she considers alien.. It is basic human nature unfortunately.. People are expectedly reactive to what they consider foreign.. Imagine how certain people might feel when their kids schools are full of foreigners that are not able to relate at any level, whether social or personal.. If the person in question faces financial difficulties as well, then it is not difficult to expect a reaction.. 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

3 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

You cannot expect a senior citizen for example with conservative and close-minded ideas to be happy and friendly towards cultures that considers alien.. It is basic human nature unfortunately.. People are expectedly reactive to what they consider foreign..

The argument that always seems to made is that they are welcome as long as they pay tax and abide by the law. And this is then used to legitimize why muslim immigration / fugitives aren't welcome. 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

The argument that always seems to made is that they are welcome as long as they pay tax and abide by the law. And this is then used to legitimize why muslim immigration / fugitives aren't welcome. 

 

Rasmus this is the argument and the logic. Are you trying to convince me that the "compact majority" (Ibsen, An Enemy of the People) apply such logical arguments to their sociopolitical theorisation or application of everyday reality? The "compact majority" is culturally and intellectually insecure thus foreign elements can induce dislike..

I wholeheartedly agree with you.. I am an advocate of studied and educated understanding and integration in societies.. We need to be confident of our culture, education and proud and confident of our roots! We dont need to be arrogant (trying to proselytise others) or insecure, feeling that our weak culture will be dissolved due to aliens..

Edited August 28, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

This is likely true of the muslim immigrants / refugees

Yes another reminder of how populism is bending reality and manipulates public opinion.. Is the wrath towards the EU (and its immigrants) justifiable in terms of which immigrant is more adjusted, integrated or useful to the society? It is terrible trying to compare people, their abilities and contributions, but graph 3 on link provided above is telling..

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I am NOT demanding any reasons

 

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

p.s. I don't agree with how some opinions are expressed either

All good man, my apologies, was a reference to the general negativity a while ago in fairness, not towards you or Alex at all

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

I'm enjoying the braying about Johnson suspending Parliament. Labour wanted to screw with the process and ended up on the receiving end. Hoisted on their own petard comes to mind. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

20 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

Rasmus this is the argument and the logic. Are you trying to convince me that the "compact majority" (Ibsen, An Enemy of the People) apply such logical arguments to their sociopolitical theorisation or application of everyday reality? The "compact majority" is culturally and intellectually insecure thus foreign elements can induce dislike..

Although true that wasn't where I was going. 

I think the rise of populism has a lot to do with economic slowdown. Things really accellerated after 2008; atleast in Denmark. Globalisation, AI, automation - economic threats are at an all-time high... 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/26/2019 at 11:47 AM, Alex Palamas said:

I am not sure what are you trying to extract so let me repeat once again, as I have done multiple times above (easy to check what I ve written), I totally support UK leaving the EU given that this is the vote of the referendum.. This should not be reversed.. 

Nevertheless, while I understand its limitations and problems, I believe in the EU socially and politically.. I think is a worthy project that can be improved and is already rather good in comparison to many other places, pedantic to mention details.. 

Based on facts, realities and knowledge, Brexit will affect me and will likely make my professional sector more challenging.. I am adapting for sometime now and hope my adaptation process pays back.. 

The EU and the EURO have done wonders for the Greek economy. 🤦‍♀️

[NickW + 2,714]

20 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

Yes another reminder of how populism is bending reality and manipulates public opinion.. Is the wrath towards the EU (and its immigrants) justifiable in terms of which immigrant is more adjusted, integrated or useful to the society? It is terrible trying to compare people, their abilities and contributions, but graph 3 on link provided above is telling..

 

The position of people like Nigel Farage has been that yes there is a small net contribution because of a particular spectrum bias in the nature of EU migrants who are mostly working age people, usually childless on arrival and invariably without disabilities. 

However these figures don't account for the knock on costs of inflation to housing costs,  congestion, displacement of native workers when workplaces become Pole only / Hungarian only, competion for school places, demands on the NHS etc etc. 

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

The position of people like Nigel Farage has been that yes there is a small net contribution because of a particular spectrum bias in the nature of EU migrants who are mostly working age people, usually childless on arrival and invariably without disabilities. 

However these figures don't account for the knock on costs of inflation to housing costs,  congestion, displacement of native workers when workplaces become Pole only / Hungarian only, competion for school places, demands on the NHS etc etc. 

Nick, I agree with your statement here and if u notice my post (sorry to be pedantic but relative accuracy matters) clearly mentions of what I call justifiable reaction of indigenous people to the social effects of immigration. Although, my thinking and stance about the subject is entirely different, I have been more than once and more than clear about how I appreciate the problem for the people of the UK even if I disagree with the understanding and analysis of the background reasons..  

Anyway, pls note that I gave this link as a continuation to a chat I had with @Rasmus Jorgensen (he was wondering what was the UK figure for economic contribution of immigrants thus I provided the link to slightly enrich the discussion) and specifically to highlight that the contribution of different immigrants to the economy (very specifically) cannot be placed into the same bag of arguments and has to be understood in full and in its temporal depth.. I am not saying these to antagonise your Brexit decision but to highlight that it is important that we understand what and how we make decisions.. You might agree with me that some media in the UK were rather simplistic about the messages that they provided to the public and did not try to explain these issues in depth.. Again, no antagonism, I am only stating my point of view with some facts every now and again.. 

 

[Alex Palamas + 52]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

The EU and the EURO have done wonders for the Greek economy. 🤦‍♀️

Nick this is I think quite simplistic.. The EU and Euro have really boosted economies such as Greece or Portugal (talking about old 13 EU members).. It is not necessarily the fault of the club that Greek politicians and citizens are not good in maintaining a well-functioning economy.. The club has tried (perhaps incompletely) to facilitate the improvement of many countries and many have and are doing rather well, unless u think that Holland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, Austria, Germany, Sweden, Denmark (last 2 not in euro) etc are all just failed useless states..  Many of the new entries (EU-27) are also doing quite well and the financial input of the EU has been quite indispensable actually.. Of course there are problems and issues but I mean come on.. I am also happy to agree that fuck knows, without the EU maybe things would be better.. I personally don't think this the case but we need to be agnostic when we don't know!!

Yes the EU and its countries are perhaps not the dream utopias we would like but perhaps the way the EU countries as a whole have been projected and presented by The Sun and Daily Mail might be perhaps a bit heavy    

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[NickW + 2,714]

40 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

Nick this is I think quite simplistic.. The EU and Euro have really boosted economies such as Greece or Portugal (talking about old 13 EU members).. It is not necessarily the fault of the club that Greek politicians and citizens are not good in maintaining a well-functioning economy.. The club has tried (perhaps incompletely) to facilitate the improvement of many countries and many have and are doing rather well, unless u think that Holland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, Austria, Germany, Sweden, Denmark (last 2 not in euro) etc are all just failed useless states..  Many of the new entries (EU-27) are also doing quite well and the financial input of the EU has been quite indispensable actually.. Of course there are problems and issues but I mean come on.. I am also happy to agree that fuck knows, without the EU maybe things would be better.. I personally don't think this the case but we need to be agnostic when we don't know!!

Yes the EU and its countries are perhaps not the dream utopias we would like but perhaps the way the EU countries as a whole have been projected and presented by The Sun and Daily Mail might be perhaps a bit heavy    

The Euro is an absolute disaster for many European economies to the benefit of a few. 

The main benefactors are Germany &  the Netherlands who have very strong commercial economies. However the Euro presents them with a double benefit because the impact of weaker economies is to give Germany  and Neth an artificially lower currency than if they had national currencies. At the same time they also benefit from artificially low central interest rates. 

Conversely weaker economies like Greece who previous could devalue the Drachma to offer cheaper shipping rates and el cheapo holidays and Ouzo to Northern European tourists are now bound into a over valued currency relative to their actual economic strength. Not only does this make exporting goods and services more expensive but also sucks in imports to swamp local manufacturers. 

I read a few years back that the Euro would have to devalue by approx 40% for the Greek Tourist economy to gain competitive parity with Turkeys.