'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil

[Alex Palamas + 52]

56 minutes ago, NickW said:

The Euro is an absolute disaster for many European economies to the benefit of a few. 

The main benefactors are Germany &  the Netherlands who have very strong commercial economies. However the Euro presents them with a double benefit because the impact of weaker economies is to give Germany  and Neth an artificially lower currency than if they had national currencies. At the same time they also benefit from artificially low central interest rates. 

Conversely weaker economies like Greece who previous could devalue the Drachma to offer cheaper shipping rates and el cheapo holidays and Ouzo to Northern European tourists are now bound into a over valued currency relative to their actual economic strength. Not only does this make exporting goods and services more expensive but also sucks in imports to swamp local manufacturers. 

I read a few years back that the Euro would have to devalue by approx 40% for the Greek Tourist economy to gain competitive parity with Turkeys. 

 

The idea has always been by few wise politicians (like they did rather successfully in Portugal for example the last 5-10 years) that Greece needs to diversify from cheap tourism.. I know it is not well understood and it is a small letter subject, but altho Greece has not diversified in terms of other industries (unlike Portugal and Spain), they have really changed a gear in their tourist product and apart from the classic cheap et al they also cater for fuller pockets these days.. Yes they can't compete with the Turks but there are sizeable differences between Portugal or Greece vs Turkey in terms of GDP, GINI, income equality and quality of life and services (even after 2010 with the crisis at its max)..  

Before arriving to the point of castigating the euro in defence of Spain, Portugal or Greece (Italy as well), Greece has an enormous unexplored competitive space that completely useless populist govts have never explored so they can appease the compact majority down there..It would be very informative if u check graphs indicating greek finances, public debt and other measures such as unemployment and gdp growth since they joined the EU (1980) and the euro (1999 or 2000)..

Lets also not forget that Greece is a net importer of pretty much every commodity minus few agri products, generic drugs, aluminium and perhaps cement (not super sure).. Their biggest income outside tourism is shipping with around ~50% of European vessels (!!!) and ~20% global DWT (!!!).. I am not sure a super soft currency would go down well in terms of importing oil, gas, other crap plus not sure a super soft currency would be of immense value to the shipping industry either given the almost universal fact that shipping workers are basically super cheap foreign sea men and while flags and taxes are far more important (I think, but am no Onassis) to income from this industry.. Not sure Greeks would be net gainers if they did have a softer currency given their dependency on imports.. Anyway, yes excellent food for thought! 

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

5 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Although true that wasn't where I was going. 

I think the rise of populism has a lot to do with economic slowdown. Things really accellerated after 2008; atleast in Denmark. Globalisation, AI, automation - economic threats are at an all-time high... 

No question there.. When we lose our relative comforts we are likely to react and look for scapegoats.. Lets not forget Dr Stockmann right?

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The idea has always been by few wise politicians (like they did rather successfully in Portugal for example the last 5-10 years) that Greece needs to diversify from cheap tourism.. I know it is not well understood and it is a small letter subject, but altho Greece has not diversified in terms of other industries (unlike Portugal and Spain), they have really changed a gear in their tourist product and apart from the classic cheap et al they also cater for fuller pockets these days.. Yes they can't compete with the Turks but there are sizeable differences between Portugal or Greece vs Turkey in terms of GDP, GINI, income equality and quality of life and services (even after 2010 with the crisis at its max)..  

Before arriving to the point of castigating the euro in defence of Spain, Portugal or Greece (Italy as well), Greece has an enormous unexplored competitive space that completely useless populist govts have never explored so they can appease the compact majority down there..It would be very informative if u check graphs indicating greek finances, public debt and other measures such as unemployment and gdp growth since they joined the EU (1980) and the euro (1999 or 2000)..

Lets also not forget that Greece is a net importer of pretty much every commodity minus few agri products, generic drugs, aluminium and perhaps cement (not super sure).. Their biggest income outside tourism is shipping with around ~50% of European vessels (!!!) and ~20% global DWT (!!!).. I am not sure a super soft currency would go down well in terms of importing oil, gas, other crap plus not sure a super soft currency would be of immense value to the shipping industry either given the almost universal fact that shipping workers are basically super cheap foreign sea men and while flags and taxes are far more important (I think, but am no Onassis) to income from this industry.. Not sure Greeks would be net gainers if they did have a softer currency given their dependency on imports.. Anyway, yes excellent food for thought! 

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Sure diversify your economy but don't ignore the single biggest source of foreign earnings income until your diversification makes it insignificant. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The idea has always been by few wise politicians (like they did rather successfully in Portugal for example the last 5-10 years) that Greece needs to diversify from cheap tourism.. I know it is not well understood and it is a small letter subject, but altho Greece has not diversified in terms of other industries (unlike Portugal and Spain), they have really changed a gear in their tourist product and apart from the classic cheap et al they also cater for fuller pockets these days.. Yes they can't compete with the Turks but there are sizeable differences between Portugal or Greece vs Turkey in terms of GDP, GINI, income equality and quality of life and services (even after 2010 with the crisis at its max)..  

Before arriving to the point of castigating the euro in defence of Spain, Portugal or Greece (Italy as well), Greece has an enormous unexplored competitive space that completely useless populist govts have never explored so they can appease the compact majority down there..It would be very informative if u check graphs indicating greek finances, public debt and other measures such as unemployment and gdp growth since they joined the EU (1980) and the euro (1999 or 2000)..

Lets also not forget that Greece is a net importer of pretty much every commodity minus few agri products, generic drugs, aluminium and perhaps cement (not super sure).. Their biggest income outside tourism is shipping with around ~50% of European vessels (!!!) and ~20% global DWT (!!!).. I am not sure a super soft currency would go down well in terms of importing oil, gas, other crap plus not sure a super soft currency would be of immense value to the shipping industry either given the almost universal fact that shipping workers are basically super cheap foreign sea men and while flags and taxes are far more important (I think, but am no Onassis) to income from this industry.. Not sure Greeks would be net gainers if they did have a softer currency given their dependency on imports.. Anyway, yes excellent food for thought! 

Given that this is an oil forum, let's talk about Greek oil shall we? If they weren't so stuck in the mud (literally and figuratively) they could have a thriving oil industry. Look at their neighbors and recognize that oil didn't stop just because there's an arbitrary international boundary. I have Greek friends in the oil industry and this has been a bone of contention for decades. 

Smart, ambitious people whose ancestors conquered the world, but today they can't get out of their own way nor evict their notoriously corrupt politicians and bunglecrats. 

Edited August 29, 2019 by Ward Smith

[Alex Palamas + 52]

43 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Given that this is an oil forum, let's talk about Greek oil shall we? If they weren't so stuck in the mud (literally and figuratively) they could have a thriving oil industry. Look at their neighbors and recognize that oil didn't stop just because there's an arbitrary international boundary. I have Greek friends in the oil industry and this has been a bone of contention for decades. 

Smart, ambitious people whose ancestors conquered the world, but today they can't get out of their own way nor evict their notoriously corrupt politicians and bunglecrats. 

Totally correct and I think I suggest this as well above quite clearly..

I always thought given the shipping strength and tonnage (and specialisation in oil tankers as well) that a carefully designed oil industry would be a no-brainer for the greeks.. Their politics is terrible but also caught in the middle of the American/Russian divide and conquer game against the rather friendly Neo-Ottoman administration for many years..  

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

46 minutes ago, NickW said:

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Sure diversify your economy but don't ignore the single biggest source of foreign earnings income until your diversification makes it insignificant. 

Certainly, not! I don't think I suggest this to be the case. In fact I think that their tourism has gone more 4-5 Star focused and this is good.. Just for the sake of the discussion I looked and found this graph below.. It does not mean of course that net profit to the state or the average citizen is positively affected or so, but u can clearly see (and seasonally adjusted) that the tourism industry receipts are clearly going up since Euro entry in 2000 (from ~1.2bil/y to ~3,5bil/y).. I also looked (superficially) for similar graph from 1980 (EU entry) to 2000 for comparison but couldn't find it.. 

Thus, in purely numerical terms, rev is up since euro entry (harder currency etc..).. Again, I am not alluding that the "monetary" benefit is also plusing the citizen or is +ve for salary pressures and cost of life..

 

Source is bank of Greece, y-axis is million euros.. Dips are due to summer-winter seasonality.. 2009-2010 dip is crisis.. End of graph is June 2019..

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

43 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

Totally correct and I think I allude to this as well above quite clearly..

I always thought given the shipping strength and tonnage (and specialisation in oil tankers as well) that a carefully designed oil industry would be a no-brainer for the greeks.. Their politics is terrible but also caught in the middle of the American/Russian divide and conquer game against the rather friendly Neo-Ottoman administration for many years..  

Here's a topical article from just last year on this subject:

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Oil-Pull-Greece-Out-of-Poverty.html

[Alex Palamas + 52]

59 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Here's a topical article from just last year on this subject:

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Oil-Pull-Greece-Out-of-Poverty.html

Thanx.. Interesting, never actually new the exact size in numbers (its fucking huge) of Greek refining.. Yet, as a lab-based chemical engineer I have been often curious that many analytical and bulk grade petrochemicals are "Made in Greece" (never checked the size of refining but surely is connected) even if marketed and sold largely by German fine chemical companies.. 

Cant help myself tho to have an affection for commodity poor but highly diversified economical bastards like Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden come to mind.. Its hard life if not blessed with commodities, but also hard work to make sure u use the commodities appropriately if u have them..

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

On 8/27/2019 at 2:18 PM, NickW said:

Where we are at fault are working tax credits created by that moron Gordon Brown and not repealed by successive chancellors. Its WTC's that are the reason the UK has seen a massive proliferation of non jobs such as dog walking services, hand car washes, professional big issue sellers, ann summers party coordinators. Until WTC all these jobs were done by kids, house wives looking to earn a bit of cash or were automated - ie car washes . 

Interesting and quite funny. This is a special case in the world I believe! How could someone even think of such an idea!

On 8/27/2019 at 9:27 PM, Alex Palamas said:

The nicest people (not me) would say that they just wanted to ensure a peaceful absorption of the failed states the USSR left..

Clearly cheaper outsourcing was a subject and it has worked (excellent german factories operate in Slovakia, Czechia etc etc..). The social effects to richer countries (mainly via immigration) are not being very positive at the moment (populism). I am curious to see when most eastern countries align economically what is going to happen with outsourcing.. Very very curious and big discussion subject..

I still think (just lateral understanding of history I guess past and near present) that british foreign policy is (also) nicely summarised in the Yes Minister clip!!

That was the reality. EU's objective has always been anti-Russian. The assimilation of East European nations into EU is to prevent Russia from gaining a hold over them by using its leverage of oil and gas supply as well as using Russian current account surplus to "buy" power.

But why would British people hate Russia? Russian hatred goes long way back and is rooted in Orthodox and Roman Church split and not communism as many think. In 1856 Crimean war, for example, UK & France helped Ottoman against Russians.In WW2, Hitler admired UK while didn't have good opinion of Russia despite Russian goods and oil supply. Hitler got anxious about stability of Russian oil an attacked Russia despite knowing that USSR grouping was much bigger than Germany and that German war resources had to take on a 2 front war. This too is rooted in West European hatred against Russia.

But, why would British people share same thoughts as its elite leadership? Why should UK citizens take the bunt for the irrational anti-Russian stance of their elites?

On 8/27/2019 at 10:28 PM, David Jones said:

I have to wonder though, does the UK remember why mass immigration became exacerbated? I would think they would be a bit more aware that the reason why so many Muslims are in fact in their country now is because the US felt it necessary to invade Iraq as well as Afghanistan and the UK decided to go along for the ride.  Expecting that the rest of the EU should take the brunt of a problem the UK was intimately connected to is quite unreasonable in my opinion as is any notion of closing off borders to refugees (does letting people drown in the Mediterranean by the thousands seem acceptable to people here I wonder?).

Had the US and UK focused on Afghanistan (ultimately the person they were seeking was found in the vicinity), Syria, Iraq and much of the middle east may be more stable today and thus there would certainly be less migration from those regions to deal with. You can't go about blowing countries to smithereens without consequences and if the idea is to engage in acts of military aggression against countries and deny refugees fleeing the carnage sanctuary, then the west would lose it's credibility as a positive force in the world. Loss of this credibility is a more serious issue than many seem to realize here as it would lead to a lot of destabilization on a global scale through lack of trust and cooperation.

As for what the UK might get from the US during/after a hard Brexit, the best they can hope from this administration is to be treated as a colony. That's what America First means in case the UK hasn't realized it yet, especially when the former is in a vulnerable position.

UK and USA are practically same countries. USA is a colony of UK and has autonomy but the difference ends there. USA an UK have always acted with same intentions. Sometimes, there was good cop - bad cop behaviour while some other time, there was outright cooperation. So, it is obvious that UK and USA will act together.

It is also a legitimate demand from Arabs that USA an Europe must contribute for the well being of Arabs as these countries get plenty of oil and various preferential trade agreements with Arabs. Arabs were questioning EU stance of "We need your oil but not your people". So, I can't oppose this demand of Arabs or condone US-UK actions in middle east.

On 8/28/2019 at 4:44 PM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I am NOT demanding any reasons. I respond to commentary and state that based on facts it is highly doubtfull that brexit will be a fiancial benefit to the UK. if people want to leave for sentimental reason; more power to them. I just think some people will become disappointed when they get what they wished for. That's all. 

p.s. I don't agree with how some opinions are expressed either

 

Brexit was never a short term goal. It is about changing a trend before it became too big to handle. It has longer term objectives and not just short term.

On 8/28/2019 at 5:27 PM, Alex Palamas said:

Yes sure, that is why I specifically say above the "social effects".. Financially, I also think the effect is overwhelmingly positive, especially in terms of wage competition and finding the right skills in every tier of the economic machinery.. The real issue is how populism is abusing the (often justifiable) social dissatisfaction of people.. 

I would really like once again to contribute few hard numbers on the financial (not social) contribution of EU migrants to the UK economy.. I really wish our UK friends check these numbers out, just for the sake of historical accuracy. Apologies to anybody who considers these numbers trivial or unimportant or is bored with the subject..

https://www.ft.com/content/797f7b42-bb44-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5

This is from the FT and it is simple numerical estimations basically. Cannot think how this can be overtly cooked but of course these numbers can be extrapolated in different ways..

Pls note figure 3 in particular and note the contribution differences.. Summary:

- European migrants paid substantially more in taxes to the government than they took in benefits or public services in 2016-17. 

- European migrants made a total contribution of £4.7bn to the public finances in 2016-17.  

- An average adult migrant from one of the original 13 EU member states (excluding the UK and Ireland) contributed £3,740 more to Britain’s exchequer than an average UK citizen 

- An eastern European migrant accession countries paid an average of £1,040 more. 

 

The problem with your tax statistics is that these people contribute tax from the money they earned in UK. This is obvious that immigrants (not refugees) will pay higher taxes as they immigrate for work whereas normal people may be retiree, student etc an hence lower tax.

Secondly, these people repatriate significant amount of money, left after paying taxes, back home which drain resources of UK.

So, overall, the GDP and economic activity of UK may go down by Brexit but the per capita income is most likely to go up. The question boils down to - whether you would prefer a $1000 economy with 20 people ($50 per person) or would you prefer $900 economy with 15 people ($60 per person). Though overall number goes down, per capita number goes up.

4 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The idea has always been by few wise politicians (like they did rather successfully in Portugal for example the last 5-10 years) that Greece needs to diversify from cheap tourism.. I know it is not well understood and it is a small letter subject, but altho Greece has not diversified in terms of other industries (unlike Portugal and Spain), they have really changed a gear in their tourist product and apart from the classic cheap et al they also cater for fuller pockets these days.. Yes they can't compete with the Turks but there are sizeable differences between Portugal or Greece vs Turkey in terms of GDP, GINI, income equality and quality of life and services (even after 2010 with the crisis at its max)..  

Before arriving to the point of castigating the euro in defence of Spain, Portugal or Greece (Italy as well), Greece has an enormous unexplored competitive space that completely useless populist govts have never explored so they can appease the compact majority down there..It would be very informative if u check graphs indicating greek finances, public debt and other measures such as unemployment and gdp growth since they joined the EU (1980) and the euro (1999 or 2000)..

Lets also not forget that Greece is a net importer of pretty much every commodity minus few agri products, generic drugs, aluminium and perhaps cement (not super sure).. Their biggest income outside tourism is shipping with around ~50% of European vessels (!!!) and ~20% global DWT (!!!).. I am not sure a super soft currency would go down well in terms of importing oil, gas, other crap plus not sure a super soft currency would be of immense value to the shipping industry either given the almost universal fact that shipping workers are basically super cheap foreign sea men and while flags and taxes are far more important (I think, but am no Onassis) to income from this industry.. Not sure Greeks would be net gainers if they did have a softer currency given their dependency on imports.. Anyway, yes excellent food for thought! 

Euro is a disaster. The main problem with common currency is that without a common government and common economic policy, there can't be common currency. Countries like Holland, Germany etc did not improve because of Euro. Euro came only after 1990s.

The idea that Greece can simply diversify at will is not reasonable. How an Greece diversify? To diversify, a country must get technology to manufacture, capital to invest and get good markets for goods and services.Greece does not have technology to manufacture as none offered assistance in the past. To invest in manufacturing now, Greece needs the ability to channel resources without disturbing the financial accounts. This means Greece needs to print money. But Euro restricts that power. The market for goods and services are hard to get due to disintegration of USSR and the policy of EU to wean the former USSR countries away from Russia and hence giving rise to overflow of cheap labour from east Europe.This makes it difficult for Greece to diversify.

The fact that Greece is a net importer also comes down to how politics was manage post WW2. Greece did not get assistance from USA an NATO in developing industries (may be due to orthodox hatred or Turkey's discomfort). We have to understand that it was alliance with USA that is responsible for EU countries to gain technology assistance (Marshall Plan & later petrodollar cooperation with NATO). So, spending on how the alliance thinking went, different countries of Europe were given different specialisations. Countries trusted most by USA got more favours. It is not Greek incompetence. Greece lacks resource to stand on its own feet. It will always nee some assistance to develop.

[Alex Palamas + 52]

35 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

The problem with your tax statistics is that these people contribute tax from the money they earned in UK. This is obvious that immigrants (not refugees) will pay higher taxes as they immigrate for work whereas normal people may be retiree, student etc an hence lower tax.

Secondly, these people repatriate significant amount of money, left after paying taxes, back home which drain resources of UK.

So, overall, the GDP and economic activity of UK may go down by Brexit but the per capita income is most likely to go up. The question boils down to - whether you would prefer a $1000 economy with 20 people ($50 per person) or would you prefer $900 economy with 15 people ($60 per person). Though overall number goes down, per capita number goes up.

I think is better to read more carefully and temporally what others and I say on this specific subject.. I am not blindly referring to the stats and the link provided also gives more in depth explanations.. My focus was very specific, no probs just highlighting.. 

The way money flows in the economy is not a trivial or simple matter.. The fiscal contribution of the EU migrants, especially those from the old 13 EU countries prior to Eastern expansion, is not trivial my friend and in comparison with non-EU migrants as well.. It is also indicative of their education and types of jobs they take versus their actual numbers..

Pls note I have been specifically addressing the economic impact in terms of Brexit and the way (in my understanding and analysis) the matter of immigration was presented, extrapolated and digested by the British public.. Also pls remember that even if the per capita income goes up if the economic output drops (if I say) and if tax revenue drops eventually the per capita income might also fall.. Remember, endless numbers for this, EU migrants (especially from the old EU 13 countries) are very often in high paid specialist employment so they are less likely to be recipients of the social protection net until they grow old.. Am not saying the issue is black or white but we should process the numbers within the principles of the real economy..

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

34 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

The idea that Greece can simply diversify at will is not reasonable. How an Greece diversify? To diversify, a country must get technology to manufacture, capital to invest and get good markets for goods and services.Greece does not have technology to manufacture as none offered assistance in the past. To invest in manufacturing now, Greece needs the ability to channel resources without disturbing the financial accounts. This means Greece needs to print money. But Euro restricts that power. The market for goods and services are hard to get due to disintegration of USSR and the policy of EU to wean the former USSR countries away from Russia and hence giving rise to overflow of cheap labour from east Europe.This makes it difficult for Greece to diversify.

My friend sorry, the concept of money printing outside of the realm of dollar denomination anyway is very simplistic and I would dare say irrelevant.. Economies need specific impulse and juice to work.. Printing useless currency is ok if u live in Zimbabwe or Venezuela, not a country with the economy, gdp, education and GINI of Greece.. This is entirely aimless..

The greek tech sector is completely integrated within the EU really fucking completely and they have scores and scores of scientists and engineers working in Germany, UK, Holland, Belgium and USA!! Tech knowledge is not lacking at all it is just their state is not capable of producing sweet conditions for SME or so flourishing!! They can't get the people back to do cool business cause their structure is shit!!

Their marker access is euro-powered within the EU!! It is again their fault not using a highly integrated system of trade within the EU to make their trade more powerful.. Note their shipping and tourism and as they work well, how nicely they have made use of their relative advantage and market integration and opportunities.. 

I mean come on man, Greece GDP/capita is ~20k while Russia is ~11k, pls man!! The USSR, Russia market has been a pile of crap since the 1960s!!!! seriously now.. 

The cheap labor from Eastern EU countries, well yes u are right but also, just pls note that hardcore industrial commercial opportunities were passed by the greeks as they did not want to have factories while the Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians etc, are super happy and doing super-well with German, Austrian, French, Dutch and other tech and industry  companies setting up.. So lets be more cautious..

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

33 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Countries like Holland, Germany etc did not improve because of Euro

I never said this man.. I speak specifically about Greece, Portugal etc and don't even say that they have categorically improved.. I am fully aware of how the euro perhaps benefits or not the germans or the dutch and the other more trade orientated economies..

Edited August 29, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

I never said this man.. I speak specifically about Greece, Portugal etc and don't even say that they have categorically improved.. I am fully aware of how the euro perhaps benefits or not the germans or the dutch and the other more trade orientated economies..

You were wrong NOT to say it, so I will. Germany won YUUUGE due to the Euro. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2018/01/23/the-german-swindle-built-into-the-euro/#21d1d14d27da

Quote

Right from the start, then, the currency union divided the Eurozone into two classes of economies: producers and consumers. Greece, Spain Portugal, Italy, and other weaker economies over consumed and under produced. The Germans did the opposite. The difference surely contributed to the fiscal-financial crises that have plagued Europe’s periphery since. Meanwhile, the biases locked into the euro at the onset have since built on themselves. The Germans, with every inducement to produce, have poured effort into expansion and efficiency, improving their economic fundamentals and widening the gap between economic reality and the euro’s expression of it. The rest of Europe, most especially its periphery, has enjoyed no such positive inducements. They, understandably, have neglected productive effort, while the austerities imposed by the fiscal-financial crisis made them still less inclined to invest in the future. Their fundamentals consequently have fallen further behind. Updated IMF data suggests that by 2017 the German pricing edge built into the euro had about doubled to over 12%.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

It may also interest you to see what Germans themselves think of this. 

https://www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany-gains-most-from-euro-introduction/a-47675856

[Alex Palamas + 52]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

You were wrong NOT to say it, so I will. Germany won YUUUGE due to the Euro. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2018/01/23/the-german-swindle-built-into-the-euro/#21d1d14d27da

 

I am such a pedantic bastard I cant just not defend my ground again..

I have said before and I think its pretty clear from what I ve written, I am fucking fully aware  of the euro-induced disparities and especially in this context. I was clearly talking about greece and portugal.. The fact that germans have profited is so well-studied that even The Sun has written about it (I am sure in a nice way).. 

The extract that you attached above, also nicely highlights that it is not necessarily that the germans are greedy fuckers for having a solid and frugal economy and it is not their fault that the italians or greeks were up with the fairies, right? We can blame the Euro as a soulless teutonic entity all we want, but for fuck sake, lets also accept the national and even individual responsibility for once for being unable to align or worse unwilling to do it after joining..

Surely it must have been hard work as a country to align and find the benefits of a globally traded, second reserve and commodity trading currency.. I am sure many benefited from the lower and rather stable rates the euro offered and more stable importing power, global exchange and trading power but some idiots went on borrowing money they didnt have to sustain their countries with credit and not with products.. 

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

You were wrong NOT to say it, so I will. Germany won YUUUGE due to the Euro. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2018/01/23/the-german-swindle-built-into-the-euro/#21d1d14d27da

 

I am really curious more than anything, why do we see history and the passage of time in such a short-term perspective.. The euro is just 20y old.. The experiment was from the start and openly a massive and heavy experiment in fiscal and economic alignment.. Something so extraordinary and so impatiently antagonised as well surely needs the benefit of the time in my opinion.. 20y is peanuts and lets not forget that the financial crisis in 2008 was not caused by the euro but mainly by the lack of frugality and true hard work from some countries.. I think it is harder work to put your arse down be innovative, creative, a productive maker of things and ideas while saving money for the rainy day, rather than go to the bet shop (trading derivatives or oil as I do) or go on printing bonds to pay your useless civil servants (around 1mil in 2008 in greece for example..)..

As always tho with political realities, 99% people want money in their pocket and an easy life, cant blame them either.. Anyway, as always thanx for the intelligent discussion Ward!

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

12 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The way money flows in the economy is not a trivial or simple matter.. The fiscal contribution of the EU migrants, especially those from the old 13 EU countries prior to Eastern expansion, is not trivial my friend and in comparison with non-EU migrants as well.. It is also indicative of their education and types of jobs they take versus their actual numbers..

It is indeed a complex issue. The money flow is so complex that even central banks can't pinpoint these flows!

Nevertheless,I am talking of resources redistribution without bothering about money flow. It makes logical sense that UK will get more resources within the country if it stops sending resources outside as remittance. How it gets distributed within is not something I am going to speculate. So, my contention is that PER CAPITA income will go up.

12 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

I mean come on man, Greece GDP/capita is ~20k while Russia is ~11k, pls man!! The USSR, Russia market has been a pile of crap since the 1960s!!!! seriously now.. 

This is due to bloating of currency due to alliance with USA and Arabs. This doesn't mean Russian Economy is worthless. Russia is structured different from Europe and Russia has more robust Economy with good fundamentals whereas Europe has speculation driven Economy.

12 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

The cheap labor from Eastern EU countries, well yes u are right but also, just pls note that hardcore industrial commercial opportunities were passed by the greeks as they did not want to have factories while the Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians etc, are super happy and doing super-well with German, Austrian, French, Dutch and other tech and industry  companies setting up.. So lets be more cautious..

How do you know Greeks passed on the industry? I have told that tge cold war political environment where Greece was seen as orthodox country and hence likely to defect to USSR may have caused USA to pressurise other NATO countries to ensure Greece doesn't get the industrial might. Or, Greece - Turkey rivalry meant that Greece was kept low to ensure Turkey is not alarmed.

Similarly, the industrial activity of east Europe ia due to USSR policy of distribution of work. That caused a problem to USSR when it split as the industrial base got scattered across and Russia had to spend 1 decade to rebuild all of it back in Russia.

You are falsely assuming that Greece was incompetent and hence let go of its opportunity. Reality is different

[Alex Palamas + 52]

48 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Nevertheless,I am talking of resources redistribution without bothering about money flow. It makes logical sense that UK will get more resources within the country if it stops sending resources outside as remittance. How it gets distributed within is not something I am going to speculate. So, my contention is that PER CAPITA income will go up.

My friend, lets be specific and clear again.. I really really cannot be convinced that migrants from the OLD EU 13 countries that contribute around 3.5 billion pounds per year send money back home!! Perhaps only for vacation.. These are mostly well-paid jobs man and these are countries of high income.. The german or belgian or french or dutch worker (even the few greeks) need not to send money to their mom and their kids are here as well.. the old 13 countries are not Albanias man pls.. Lets not take the discussion to paranormal activity pls.. I can easily talk about myself and so many others like me but seriously this is v tedious..

Of course tho and I have been saying this all the fucking time The new EU countries of the eastern block and the non-EU migrants do send money back home as they come from far poorer countries!!

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

How do you know Greeks passed on the industry? I have told that tge cold war political environment where Greece was seen as orthodox country and hence likely to defect to USSR may have caused USA to pressurise other NATO countries to ensure Greece doesn't get the industrial might. Or, Greece - Turkey rivalry meant that Greece was kept low to ensure Turkey is not alarmed.

Thanx for telling me that I am false, makes me think harder!

It is not me my friend, every single fucking chart and metric can easily tell u that the fiscal expansion in greece was based on debt.. anyway, if u dont want to appreciate this what else can I say? 

The greeks have gone thru MASSIVE de-industrialisation man, MASSIVE, it was their choice, their govts failed to make the country industry friendly.. see chart below.. I wish I can find before 1996 but data is telling (from WorldBank).. In sharp contrast to what u claim, only the euro entry (and its inevitable investment from serious players) produced some bounce to manufacturing output but it has been falling since the 80s like there is no tomorrow.. Now they need to shape up and they are I think try again to set it up.. Graph is manufacturing output and is sharply opposite their heavy duty tourism and shipping sector that is going up..

The greeks had enormous fucking enormous opportunities to develop within the eurozone and in contrast to all the euro-haters, this is really the case of a country failing to grab opportunities by the balls.. They have atrocious tax policies and very unfriendly bureacracy as well.. I think it is super-unfair to horizontally blame external parameters for their own failures.. https://www.wsj.com/articles/taxation-strangles-greeces-growth-prospects-1532597400

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Or, Greece - Turkey rivalry meant that Greece was kept low to ensure Turkey is not alarmed.

I agree, Sure the aggressiveness of turkey and the highly turkophilic approach of US (and UK) has not helped greece but seriously just study the influx of money greece has enjoyed and the horrible management they did over it.. Plus to be honest, even with the crisis, even with all the problems etc, there is fucking no comparison between greece and turkey in terms of quality of life and personal development.. before the crisis the comparison was geometric..

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

This is due to bloating of currency due to alliance with USA and Arabs. This doesn't mean Russian Economy is worthless. Russia is structured different from Europe and Russia has more robust Economy with good fundamentals whereas Europe has speculation driven Economy.

No man it is not only currency bloating.. Russia is a v bad example and am sure u know it.. A country with good education, huge natural resources, yet highly poor, unequal and underdeveloped for its real capacity and worth, largely ruled by Oligarchs which are also exported in the UK..

I cannot even believe a country of ~120mil or whatever with such enormous natural commodity gift from god, yet with GDP/capita comparable to Libyas before the war.. fuck it seriously.. 

Sure russia is also heavily antagonised in international trade, I agree so picture might have been different if they were allowed fair play! But they are also themselves unfair players..

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

13 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

No man it is not only currency bloating.. Russia is a v bad example and am sure u know it.. A country with good education, huge natural resources, yet highly poor, unequal and underdeveloped for its real capacity and worth, largely ruled by Oligarchs which are also exported in the UK..

I cannot even believe a country of ~120mil or whatever with such enormous natural commodity gift from god, yet with GDP/capita comparable to Libyas before the war.. fuck it seriously.. 

Sure russia is also heavily antagonised in international trade, I agree so picture might have been different if they were allowed fair play! But they are also themselves unfair players..

 

Russia has all the Economy it needs. Its Economy is extremely robust and its consumption limited. This means that Russia has the ability to be self sufficient and have independent foreign policy. These European countries are having big Economy solely due to alliance with USA and the consequent political favours from USA & Arabs, which bloated their currency. Do you think Italy has any sort of meaningful Economy that can compete with Russia? Still, Italy is having higher GDP than Russia! Similarly, even Canada has higher GDP than Russia. All this only shows that it is due ti currency manipulation and the petrodollar that the GDP appears bloated. Reality is that Russian Economy is quite good and is more stable than entire European Economy.

23 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

I agree, Sure the aggressiveness of turkey and the highly turkophilic approach of US (and UK) has not helped greece but seriously just study the influx of money greece has enjoyed and the horrible management they did over it.. Plus to be honest, even with the crisis, even with all the problems etc, there is fucking no comparison between greece and turkey in terms of quality of life and personal development.. before the crisis the comparison was geometric..

The money which came to Greece was a political investment by NATO. The condition of this political funds may have been that Greece can't industrialise itself. If Greece ecver started major industrial project, the funds could have been cut by putting restrictions on Greece. So, unlike your claim that Greece got funds but didn't use to industrialise, the reality is more like - Greece was given funds with the condition of not industrialisation.

I have seen that you ignore political conditions, orthodox-Roman cold war and simply divert attention to your narrow set of arguments. I can't explain much to you if you continue to selectively ignore some parts if the picture as the picture can be completed only when it is looked at holistically

27 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

Thanx for telling me that I am false, makes me think harder!

It is not me my friend, every single fucking chart and metric can easily tell u that the fiscal expansion in greece was based on debt.. anyway, if u dont want to appreciate this what else can I say? 

The greeks have gone thru MASSIVE de-industrialisation man, MASSIVE, it was their choice, their govts failed to make the country industry friendly.. see chart below.. I wish I can find before 1996 but data is telling (from WorldBank).. In sharp contrast to what u claim, only the euro entry (and its inevitable investment from serious players) produced some bounce to manufacturing output but it has been falling since the 80s like there is no tomorrow.. Now they need to shape up and they are I think try again to set it up..

The greeks had enormous fucking enormous opportunities to develop within the eurozone and in contrast to all the euro-haters, this is really the case of a country failing to grab opportunities by the balls.. They have atrocious tax policies and very unfriendly bureacracy as well.. I think it is super-unfair to horizontally blame external parameters for their own failures.. https://www.wsj.com/articles/taxation-strangles-greeces-growth-prospects-1532597400

As I have mentioned above, Greece may never have had any opportunities as the funds were with conditions. Hence any attempts from Greece to violate the political conditions imposed by NATO could have made Greece get cut off from the funds. So, Greece really may have had very little opportunity to industrialise.

H

43 minutes ago, Alex Palamas said:

Of course tho and I have been saying this all the fucking time The new EU countries of the eastern block and the non-EU migrants do send money back home as they come from far poorer countries!!

This is also a drain on UK resources. Even after Brexit, UK can have immigrant labour but will not have compulsion to allow free flow of labour from every country. UK can restrict labour immigration only to certain specific roles and reduce immigration yo 10% of current level.

[Alex Palamas + 52]

51 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Do you think Italy has any sort of meaningful Economy that can compete with Russia?

Yes I do my friend.. Plus it is a far nicer place to live even now.. Italy does not have petrol or gas or gold or ore.. Yet, even with their limited capacity and historical inefficiencies, they make nice stuff man which are also expensive and sought after by Russian oligarchs and plutocrats.. 

The reality remains.. A country like russia so blessed has not achieved economically what it could.. Pls also note I am personally a massive fun (and well-read) of russian literature and fine thought.. If u want to understand even modern day russia, I cannot recommend  highly enough to go heavy on the russian classics, not to mention Bakunin one of my big heroes!! If I understand you correctly (I am wildly extrapolating here so pls forgive me), I would immediately recommend "Notes from the Underground" by Dostoyevski..  I am fully aware of what they are capable and I am stating hard cold facts man..

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

40 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

As I have mentioned above, Greece may never have had any opportunities as the funds were with conditions. Hence any attempts from Greece to violate the political conditions imposed by NATO could have made Greece get cut off from the funds. So, Greece really may have had very little opportunity to industrialise.

Greece received structural funds from the EU.. pls stop the fixation with NATO handing funds.. Instead greece has spent tons of worthless money to NATO (indirectly; via NATO arm-producers) to sustain a large military under the dogma of divide and conquer that greece has been placed against turkey.. Read more carefully what I write if u have time (I understand u might not)..

The EU funds that Greece received were used since the 80s to drastically improve (successfully) the infrastructure and the country achieved solid alignment with other EU countries easily till 2008-2010 when the crisis exploded (because of their unchecked debt and useless politics).. 

Again, greece had enormous opportunities but did not use them exactly right..

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

31 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

I have seen that you ignore political conditions, orthodox-Roman cold war and simply divert attention to your narrow set of arguments. I can't explain much to you if you continue to selectively ignore some parts if the picture as the picture can be completed only when it is looked at holistically

I am answering back with facts, graphs, links and arguments based on the realities of the market and instead u reprimand me for ignoring the potential anti-orthodox conspiracy.. fine, not much I can say.. It is very disheartening.. 

You have seen this very incorrectly.. I specifically described my agreement with u for the political difficulties Greece faces.. Pls read carefully before horizontally accusing me of ignorance.. 

I will state this again, I agree with you, there are political challenges that greece faces.. I personally always felt an anti-greek sentiment from specific countries.. Turkey is difficult as well.. 

You are also pulling the subject from a biased direction.. Greece has tried to be a very russia-friendly country over the years u can find endless articles (for obvious cultural reasons and orhtodoxy as u point out) but u can clearly see that russia has not done its bit!! They have always played the game that the americans have also played with greece for the geopolitical reasons we all understand..