Dr.Masih Rezvani

Iran in the world market

Recommended Posts

If Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries succeed in replacing Iranian oil in world markets and if the nuclear deal does not continue , What is the fate of Iran in the world market?

  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If what you describe actually occurs, what else could Iran offer the world market? If you have nothing to sell, then you have no money to buy.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If what you describe actually occurs, what else could Iran offer the world market? If you have nothing to sell, then you have no money to buy.

Presumably, and we can hope, the armies of the West will finally invade the place, knock over the Revolutionary Guard (the ones that refuse to surrender are shot), and every single one of those Ayatollahs and Mullahs are taken to the gallows and publicly hung. 

The problems go away when the crazy, worthless, poisonous jerks are all finally dead. There is a time to live, and a time to die, and it is now time for the Ayatollahs and their politicians to die. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Dr.Masih Rezvani said:

If Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries succeed in replacing Iranian oil in world markets and if the nuclear deal does not continue , What is the fate of Iran in the world market?

Some of what you are saying , KSA and neighbours have been replacing Iranian oil, so there is that. Besides that, the sanctions will keep on weakening and chipping away at the Iranian war machine and further weakening their economy, The Iranian people are suffering because of the attitude of the leaders. As a historical perspective on N Power  and related matters , most (developing)countries that have acquired such resources, have not had any benefits except for stroking the tiny egos to claim some form of one up on their neighbours. Look @ India , they wanted to have it for power gen., yet it hasnt given any benefits , and they have N weapons. Look at the plight of majority of Indians , very bad electrical power supply, lack of sanitation, clean water, healthcare and on and on, and the pollution.

Look @ Pakistan, similar problems.

So Iran would be different? NO!

Coming back to Iran and crude oil markets, even KSA is getting on into the action of exporting US produced crude.

 

Aramco Trading sells first U.S. West Texas Light crude to South Korea's Hyundai

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-aramco-trading-sells-first-063254260.html

 

 

If things drag out this way for Iran and its economy with the sanctions, it may very well come down to a blow out internally and that could start the foreign assistance to the internal resistance.

  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like iran selling plenty of oil. Oops

  • Haha 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iran can feed itself. The workforce is capable, relatively young and educated. Iran will go along, with or without the west. Enforced sanctions will force them to align more with China, and India. Iran's standard of living will be restricted, but not the basic fundamentals.

Kuwait, KSA, UAE, Qatar, all are very dependent on expat labor. In their own way, they are far more addicted to the west.

In some small extent the Iranian expat community contribute to sanctions, making folks believe pressure will cause a regime change and things will work out great. The expat Iraq community did an exceptional job at selling this notion. And the Iranian expat community is much larger, and much better networked, than the Iraqi community was.

And in it's own way North Korea has demonstrated the best response to the USA's pressure is to go all-out at developing a nuclear capability. It will bring the US to the table. Albeit it is more risky with Israel and it's capabilities in the picture. 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Before the Islamic revolution in 1979 the capital of Iran was one of the most culturally advanced in the world. The newspaper The New York Times wrote: "Before the revolution, Iran was the most cultural and multi-ethnic country in the region.

So based on some of the comments above it could once again become a cultural hot spot for tourism for Wrstern countries and replace Cancun.

Edited by James Regan
  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect they will just start using more oil directly to improve their standard of living.

Oil --> $$ --> Pretty much anything you want.

Oil --> Energy --> Pretty much anything you want.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Before the Islamic revolution in 1979 the capital of Iran was one of the most culturally advanced in the world. The newspaper The New York Times wrote: "Before the revolution, Iran was the most cultural and multi-ethnic country in the region.

So based on some of the comments above it could once again become a cultural hot spot for tourism for Wrstern countries and replace Cancun.

Also math and science.  Say algebra out loud like "Allah-ge-bra" it obviously didn't come from the west. 😂

Apparently it can also be quite beautiful - the proposed location of the mythical garden of eden.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, John Foote said:

Iran can feed itself. The workforce is capable, relatively young and educated. Iran will go along, with or without the west. Enforced sanctions will force them to align more with China, and India. Iran's standard of living will be restricted, but not the basic fundamentals.

Kuwait, KSA, UAE, Qatar, all are very dependent on expat labor. In their own way, they are far more addicted to the west.

In some small extent the Iranian expat community contribute to sanctions, making folks believe pressure will cause a regime change and things will work out great. The expat Iraq community did an exceptional job at selling this notion. And the Iranian expat community is much larger, and much better networked, than the Iraqi community was.

And in it's own way North Korea has demonstrated the best response to the USA's pressure is to go all-out at developing a nuclear capability. It will bring the US to the table. Albeit it is more risky with Israel and it's capabilities in the picture. 

I am not sure if you know about Iran internal workings and labour force or not, but like much of the Mid-East, Iran had/has has a large work force that are expats from South Asia and Far East. They also have a massive Afghan migrant work force doing labour work and farm work etc.

India is not going to align with Iran very easily, India wants to maintain good relations with the West and will comply with any existing and new sanctions.

The standard of living in Iran for the general population is getting worse under the sanctions.

The US wont be negotiating with Iran or anyone else if they cross the line of N. capability. Eventually it will end badly for the bad actor.

  • Like 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I suspect they will just start using more oil directly to improve their standard of living.

Oil --> $$ --> Pretty much anything you want.

Oil --> Energy --> Pretty much anything you want.

The natural resource can be used domestically but it will only go so far, they cant consume all the oil and all the plastics etc, they need an export market as does any country that has those resources. SO it will be a very limited demand and engine of the economy.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Before the Islamic revolution in 1979 the capital of Iran was one of the most culturally advanced in the world. The newspaper The New York Times wrote: "Before the revolution, Iran was the most cultural and multi-ethnic country in the region.

So based on some of the comments above it could once again become a cultural hot spot for tourism for Wrstern countries and replace Cancun.

It may, but it will take decades to do so to overcome the decay that has occurred.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Also math and science.  Say algebra out loud like "Allah-ge-bra" it obviously didn't come from the west. 😂

Apparently it can also be quite beautiful - the proposed location of the mythical garden of eden.

 

Maybe think of Zoroastrianism as you probably use this word unknowingly each day a word from the religious philosophy of the early Iranian gods.

Think of Iran while eating your Roast chicken 🍗 

Tonnes of culture in Iran could be a great nation again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, John Foote said:

Iran can feed itself. The workforce is capable, relatively young and educated. Iran will go along, with or without the west. Enforced sanctions will force them to align more with China, and India. Iran's standard of living will be restricted, but not the basic fundamentals.

Kuwait, KSA, UAE, Qatar, all are very dependent on expat labor. In their own way, they are far more addicted to the west.

In some small extent the Iranian expat community contribute to sanctions, making folks believe pressure will cause a regime change and things will work out great. The expat Iraq community did an exceptional job at selling this notion. And the Iranian expat community is much larger, and much better networked, than the Iraqi community was.

And in it's own way North Korea has demonstrated the best response to the USA's pressure is to go all-out at developing a nuclear capability. It will bring the US to the table. Albeit it is more risky with Israel and it's capabilities in the picture. 

What you say may be true, but you ignore the 'will of the people'. Unrest has been bubbling for decades. The standard of living is not great and getting worse. The leaders in Iran know this and if they have any common sense, are worried about it.

Eventually it will be the Iranian people themselves who free their country from this theocracy.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

I am not sure if you know about Iran internal workings and labour force or not, but like much of the Mid-East, Iran had/has has a large work force that are expats from South Asia and Far East. They also have a massive Afghan migrant work force doing labour work and farm work etc.

India is not going to align with Iran very easily, India wants to maintain good relations with the West and will comply with any existing and new sanctions.

The standard of living in Iran for the general population is getting worse under the sanctions.

The US wont be negotiating with Iran or anyone else if they cross the line of N. capability. Eventually it will end badly for the bad actor.

Agree, the bad actor being the US

  • Upvote 1
  • Rolling Eye 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What you say may be true, but you ignore the 'will of the people'. Unrest has been bubbling for decades. The standard of living is not great and getting worse. The leaders in Iran know this and if they have any common sense, are worried about it.

Eventually it will be the Iranian people themselves who free their country from this theocracy.

So leave it to its own devices as failure is imminent as you say. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JR EWING said:

So leave it to its own devices as failure is imminent as you say. 

Did I say an uprising was 'imminent'? I believe the word I used was 'eventually'.

Are you suggesting that the rest of the world take a 'hands off' approach to Iran? No international political or economic pressure on the theocracy, no covert assistance of any type to the Iranian people? You do realize that you are pitting an unarmed civilian population against the Republican Guard who would not hesitate to massacre civilians to keep the theocracy in power, don't you?

  • Like 2
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do realize what i'm s saying, hands off. No intervention whstsoever required.

I guess you are more afraid they will succeed. Lets face it, us is after iran and vz for same reason. Keep their oil from market so that shale and canadian tar can be competitive (to some extent). Market share needed to be wedged in somehow. 

Lets drop the illusion that the US government gives a rats arse what the Iranian people endure. 

If the US was so concerned about theocracies shouldn't Saudi be under strict sanctions and embargoes of one form or other.

Oh no Doug, there goes the god argument.

 

 

  • Great Response! 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

I am not sure if you know about Iran internal workings and labour force or not, but like much of the Mid-East, Iran had/has has a large work force that are expats from South Asia and Far East. They also have a massive Afghan migrant work force doing labour work and farm work etc.

India is not going to align with Iran very easily, India wants to maintain good relations with the West and will comply with any existing and new sanctions.

The standard of living in Iran for the general population is getting worse under the sanctions.

The US wont be negotiating with Iran or anyone else if they cross the line of N. capability. Eventually it will end badly for the bad actor.

My wife is Iranian and said this is rubbish. Indian and SE Asian migrants are few and far between - usually incidental in oil and gas ops run by foreign forms. There are a couple of million Afghans in the workforce but they are largely in low skilled jobs. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, John Foote said:

Iran can feed itself. The workforce is capable, relatively young and educated. Iran will go along, with or without the west. Enforced sanctions will force them to align more with China, and India. Iran's standard of living will be restricted, but not the basic fundamentals.

Kuwait, KSA, UAE, Qatar, all are very dependent on expat labor. In their own way, they are far more addicted to the west.

In some small extent the Iranian expat community contribute to sanctions, making folks believe pressure will cause a regime change and things will work out great. The expat Iraq community did an exceptional job at selling this notion. And the Iranian expat community is much larger, and much better networked, than the Iraqi community was.

And in it's own way North Korea has demonstrated the best response to the USA's pressure is to go all-out at developing a nuclear capability. It will bring the US to the table. Albeit it is more risky with Israel and it's capabilities in the picture. 

My wife was there in July and this pretty much mirrors what she saw. Spent a fortune too boosting their economy even at very favourable exchange rates😉

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/28/2019 at 5:20 PM, ceo_energemsier said:

I am not sure if you know about Iran internal workings and labour force or not, but like much of the Mid-East, Iran had/has has a large work force that are expats from South Asia and Far East. They also have a massive Afghan migrant work force doing labour work and farm work etc. 

There is always someone poorer, Afghans for example, but I was writing about people with technical capabilities. They aren't going to Afghanistan migrants for high end work. Iran has scientists, engineers, roads, and a culture that supports collaboration going back thousands of years. The oil producing Gulf States do not, at least not enough to maintain there ways.

India is not going to align with Iran very easily, India wants to maintain good relations with the West and will comply with any existing and new sanctions.

India is a different beast. You think China has ethics issues, try India. But you don't have a clever CCP, so not as dangerous.

The standard of living in Iran for the general population is getting worse under the sanctions.

Absolutely. One of my local friends, his brother is a university professor, and I think you'd make more on Food Stamps on the USA. 

The US wont be negotiating with Iran or anyone else if they cross the line of N. capability. Eventually it will end badly for the bad actor.

Would we even spit in North Korea's direction if they didn't have nukes. It's nasty game of chicken they are playing, but invading, or even just bombing Iran, is a hornets nest that would make the Bush43 fiasco look like a walk in the park, which also inadvertently greatly strengthened Iran's position. And for all the posturing, Kim is still playing his games. I'm just saying the US has used most of the arrows in our economic pressure quiver, and applying this sort of pressure isn't working nearly as well on Iran as it does in making us feel we are succeeding. It's kind of like torture, it doesn't work. If feels like it works, but the wins you get are very quick and early. If you have to sustain it, it is quite counter-productive. This prisoner is well trained in dealing with pressure techniques.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/28/2019 at 4:24 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Presumably, and we can hope, the armies of the West will finally invade the place, knock over the Revolutionary Guard (the ones that refuse to surrender are shot), and every single one of those Ayatollahs and Mullahs are taken to the gallows and publicly hung. 

The problems go away when the crazy, worthless, poisonous jerks are all finally dead. There is a time to live, and a time to die, and it is now time for the Ayatollahs and their politicians to die. 

But how do you really feel Jan?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you have problems with the Iranian people or with the Iranian government ???

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Me ?

We've made it clear a few times we have no issue obviously with the Iranian people. 

Personally I want them to be free of evil. 

Edited by DayTrader
  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.