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Tom Kirkman

Iranian Tanker Makes Drastic Course Reversal As It Entered Turkish Waters

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In my observations, looking for a well thought rational plan when belief structures are more important than logic in the leadership, you end up with some odd things. Whatever they thought they could do, didn't pan out. Probably on plan A, no B, no C, no .....Z by now.

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My guess is that the Iranian crew (I assume the ship is crewed by Iranians) has had enough of the theocracy and the Revolutionary Guard and will beach the vessel on the Island of Lesbos, or perhaps mainland Greece, and apply for political asylum....

Come on! Where's your sense of humor?😂

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13 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

My guess is that the Iranian crew (I assume the ship is crewed by Iranians) has had enough of the theocracy and the Revolutionary Guard and will beach the vessel on the Island of Lesbos, or perhaps mainland Greece, and apply for political asylum....

Come on! Where's your sense of humor?😂

I would be surprised if there was even one Iranian national sitting on that boat.  Last I heard, it had a Pakistani captain and mostly Filipino crew.  That would be common enough, incidentally.

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19 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

A bit of a head scratcher.  Anyone wish to offer up theories?  This is a bit unexpected.

Iranian Tanker Makes Drastic Course Reversal As It Entered Turkish Waters

Oil is headed for ship-to-ship transfer.  Nobody wants to see that Iranian tanker showing up on their doorstep with that oil inside, and the ship does have to be both reprovisioned and re-fuelled, so they gotta get that oil off that boat.  I predict it will go onto some smaller, old tubs and hauled off to Syria. 

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I believe some trader in Turkey bought it for a bargain basement price, then the US got wind of it and tightened the screws. Pariah oil from a pariah dictatorship looking for a home, won't be easy. Hard to hide a supertanker

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1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

I believe some trader in Turkey bought it for a bargain basement price, then the US got wind of it and tightened the screws. Pariah oil from a pariah dictatorship looking for a home, won't be easy. Hard to hide a supertanker

Ward, that is entirely logical.  Meanwhile, US relations with Ankara are at a low ebb, and I don't conclude that the US has much leverage over Turkey. Erdogan and Trump are already at loggerheads.  Yes, a large tanker is hard to hide.  That is why it can be offloaded by ship-to-ship, which is entirely plausible. 

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Ward, that is entirely logical.  Meanwhile, US relations with Ankara are at a low ebb, and I don't conclude that the US has much leverage over Turkey. Erdogan and Trump are already at loggerheads.  Yes, a large tanker is hard to hide.  That is why it can be offloaded by ship-to-ship, which is entirely plausible. 

Maybe its going into the russian distribution system in novorrissiysk and blended and sold on to europe at blended prices. Maybe originally it was going to turkey for discount prices paid on delivery and someone in the "dark state" decided to deprive the US of a publicity win. We will see in a few days whos not playing ball.

I noted yesterday that platts put chinese import of iranian oil at just shy of 1mbod in july. I suppose platts are wrong and pompus pompeo is right. 

It sure looks iran is managing to sell almost 1.5mbod vs the so called zero noted by us administration.

I noticed the absence of any board comment/reference to platts figures with mild amusement

 

 

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5 minutes ago, JR EWING said:

I noticed the absence of any board comment/reference to platts figures with mild amusement

I have previously commented here that Iran's oil will continue to flow to market, sanctions or no sanctions.  I did not specifically reference Platt's, but that is trivia.  To say that there was no "board comment" is inaccurate. 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, JR EWING said:

Maybe its going into the russian distribution system in novorrissiysk

That is dubious.  Putin built a bridge across the Kerch Strait, I would be a restriction on the size of ship that can transit underneath.  My guess is that the span clearance precludes this size of VLCC. 

NOTE:  I stand corrected.  The port is on the Black Sea side of the bridge, not the Sea of Azov side.  

Edited by Jan van Eck
added NOTE of correction.

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Only restriction is potentially the bosphorous. The kerch bridge doesnt impact novorrissiysk port access. Russian black sea fleet docks there. Lots of oil coming out of novorissiysk from russia and kz. Buts its all a bi directional system

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