China Faces Economic Collapse

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

6 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

 

" winter is coming, the Chinese cannot have a shortage of food"

 

And what does that have to do with the amount of Tea in China? pun fully intended LOL

 

Nothing, but there is now more wheat in China.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Just now, Enthalpic said:

 

Nothing, but there is now more wheat in China.

And they will have lot more wheat, and they will buy more from Canada and the US and other countries.

[Marcin + 519]

8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Trump has put the Chinese Communists under quite a bit of pressure.  I predict they will fold. 

 

 

To put things in perspective.

384,000 new industrial robots were installed in the world in 2018.

Out of this number:  35,880 robots, 9.3% in the United States and 156,400 robots, 40.7% in China.

In 2018 China was the largest market for industrial robots for 6^th consecutive year, United States is the 4^th largest market after China, Japan (50 thousand) and South Korea (41 thousand).

The collapse of China, is imminent 😉

During the last decade China was the elephant in the room.

So Chinese authorities decided that China could no longer "hide its strength and bide its time".

In 2013 China named all the activities it was already conducting abroad "the Belt and Road Initiative".

And intensified overseas M&As, infrastructure building etc,

Suddenly huge geopolitical, global project aimed at United States emerged.

In 2015 China named "China 2025" all the activities it was already conducting in areas of R&D and industrial policy.

And China started building its own global institutions and organizations like: SCO and AIIB/Silk Road Fund to directly compete with

NATO and Asian Development Bank/World Bank. RMB was included in the SDR basket.

Many argued that this bold moves were premature and made by Xi Jinping to consolidate its power.

China could have waited 5-10 more years, until it openly challenged the United States and then it will win with ease.

 

For China trade war, tariff war is not important, at present

China only needs technology and natural resources from the outside world,

it has its own, largest consumer market in the world.

Steve Bannon was right when he said sth like: Huawei ban is worth 10 times more than tariffs.

Technology war is everything.

United States could win only if it could persuade its subordinate countries in Europe and East Asia

(Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Germany) to stop co-operation with China.

To put it bluntly to destroy Huawei you need to persuade TSMC to stop making chips for Huawei.

Unfortunately it is not possible as Chinese economy is much more important for these countries than American economy.

So what China will do in trade war is actually meaningless, watch Technology.

 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I believe you on the internal Chinese pressure, but would like your sources. 

[Guest]

What people never seem to mention on here is why Trump is doing this, or why China has been allowed to get away with these practices for decades. It seems to always descend into ''well China will be fine because of x'', ''Trump is bad because of x''. Even the pro China people seem to agree about IP theft, not following simple world rules and so on, and yet no one seems to consider why Trump is doing this.

This, to me, is literally about the next century on this planet. A few tariffs here and there, back and forth, talks, lack of talks, it's just noise. This will probably go on for years, it's already been 18 months with very little actual progress. This is before they get to Huawei.

One of the reasons I admire what Trump is doing is that I'd argue he may not even be around when the eventual benefits of all this are realised. This will take years and will literally change the planet's future. This isn't just about one easily solvable thing. It's the US economy, the Chinese economy, technology in the future, international trade, sweat shop child labour, bringing back jobs to USA, etc etc .....  hundreds of things.

Also, even after these years, there is no guarantee China will even be doing what they agreed to anyway. This is the 2 biggest powers in the world, both full of pride, trying to come to a deal they are both happy with, and which makes it look like neither has backed down, about a wide range of issues. Good luck with that...

As I seem to keep saying on posts, because something is difficult or takes time is no reason not to start. If Trump does not win and his successor does not follow through with this, you're f**k*d. If he does win, I believe talks will speed up and 'progress' as China has no reason now to stall by waiting for an election. My point about starting something difficult is that none of your other presidents did this. This is not mentioned, just the standard anti Trump shit. 

This is not, to me, a competition about who is suffering more. I believe it is a small price to pay. China has the advantage of not having a bunch of morons whining in their country, as they do not understand what their leader is trying to achieve. Trump does not have this luxury.

It would be lovely if people could see what he is trying to achieve. The odd tariff and bit of hardship is a small price to pay to have 'Made in the USA' on an item. This to me is preferable to 'Made in China by a hungry poor person, quite possibly a child'.

This isn't about a few soy beans.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2019 by Guest

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

so the game goes: on again, off again.  now tariffs are off.  who can say how long this lasts?  but all this is temporary.  the Chinese will have a long term "solution".   Trump plays poker.  the Chinese play chess.  

Ahem.  I disagree.

Panda Hungry – China Buys Soybeans, Exempts Pork and Beans From Additional Tariffs

In a quite admission of food dependency, China purchased 600,000 tonnes of soybeans yesterday (link), and simultaneously announced that U.S. pork and soybean imports would be exempt from further tariff increases.

The surface message Beijing is selling, surrounds their magnanimous panda narrative of reaching out to diminish trade friction.  However, below the surface everyone knows China cannot feed itself and if food prices keep rising they could likely have growing unrest.

Beijing’s decision to not enhance tariffs of pork and soybeans is very self serving. Particularly because China owns Smithfield foods, the largest producer of U.S. pork.  In essence China has lessened tariffs against their own company.  ...

 

... Now we can see why Vice-Premier Liu He asked President Trump to postpone the tariffs on Chinese products from October 1st to October 15th.

Manipulative panda needed the two-week delay as the basis for a face-saving move.

Likely Beijing was already going to make the bean purchases and exempt the pork products etc.  China has no choice, they need the food.  However, making the purchase as a stand alone would make them appear weak…. So Beijing asks President Trump for a two-week delay,… then they make the purchase,…. and then they position the purchase as a response to the two-week delay.

Typical panda.

POTUS knew….

Donald J. Trump

 

✔@realDonaldTrump

 

 

It is expected that China will be buying large amounts of our agricultural products!

 

87.9K

8:45 PM - Sep 12, 2019

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

'' This shit's chess, it ain't chequers ''   - D. Washington

8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Typical panda.

POTUS knew….

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Talk about turmoil in China proper, outside of HK and Uighur areas, is absolute junk.  Go and visit the country and see for yourself.  There is a better chance of a riot happening in Baltimore or Los Angeles than Shanghai or any of the other major cities with the exception of HK, which is rioting for non-economic reasons. 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Guest]

Who mentioned riots within China?

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The ones talking about internal Chinese pressure from lack of food.

China has plenty of food.  I can assure everyone of this.  The food I buy in America comes from China (i.e. the Chinese grocery stores in America gets their food from China because it's cheaper).  

Edited September 14, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Marcin + 519]

8 hours ago, DayTrader said:

This, to me, is literally about the next century on this planet. A few tariffs here and there, back and forth, talks, lack of talks, it's just noise. This will probably go on for years, it's already been 18 months with very little actual progress. This is before they get to Huawei.

One of the reasons I admire what Trump is doing is that I'd argue he may not even be around when the eventual benefits of all this are realised. This will take years and will literally change the planet's future. This isn't just about one easily solvable thing. It's the US economy, the Chinese economy, technology in the future, international trade, sweat shop child labour, bringing back jobs to USA, etc etc .....  hundreds of things.

Unfortunately the next century on this planet was already decided,

during a few weeks after 9/11/2001.

Bush junior administration virtually since its inauguration in January 2001, started very effective,

China containment policy. But Bush jr was too new to politics, too inexperienced to be bold enough

  so he caved in, for the first time in July 2001 after Hainan plane incident.

This was the last moment to contain Chinese growth, China was 1.2 trillion economy, US was 10.3 trillion economy.

Then 9/11/2001 happened and Bush jr was distracted by its advisors to pursue wars in Middle East and Central Asia.

China was saved, it gained a few years of Opportunity Window.

In 2000/2001 Chinese growth accelerated, they invested like mad, like the country preparing for the total war.

Next came global financial crisis and US was distracted for the second time.

Now it is way too late, by most measures China is already the most powerful country in the world.

 

 

[Marcin + 519]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I believe you on the internal Chinese pressure, but would like your sources. 

1. China is probably the only country in the world that seriously takes under consideration

planetary effects of its actions in so many areas.

That is why food security is the issue of national security.

That is why they have Strategic Pork Reserve, Strategic Wheat Reserve etc.

Because if there is an awful natural disaster in China, not enough pork or wheat or rice

exist on planet Earth to feed 1.4 billion Chinese even if everybody is the willing seller.

Tariff wars are really the least important contingency, they are prepared for true Acts of God.

2. To directly criticize Xi Jinping in China AD 2019 is SACRILEGE.

CPC emulates proved by 3000 years of Chinese history imperial model of governance.

Only the Emperor is collective, it is called the Standing Committee, at present 7 guys that rule China.

But Xi Jinping gained so much power that first time since Mao he is the single emperor,

not the first among equals as in the past.

And that worries Chinese, it should be source of joy for Americans because Xi already makes mistakes

in economy area but only he can decide to correct them, nobody else.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

15 minutes ago, Marcin said:

To directly criticize Xi Jinping in China AD 2019 is SACRILEGE.

Well dang it then, here's my offering to the god emperor Xi, long may he Pooh over China.

 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Marcin said:

To directly criticize Xi Jinping in China AD 2019 is SACRILEGE.

And there it is.

To you obviously. Not to me.

CHINA GOOD CHINA GOOD CHINA GOOD CHINA GOOD

USA BAD USA BAD USA BAD USA BAD USA BAD

YAAAAAAAAWWWWWWNNNNN

 

FFS @Tom Kirkman , just saw your post haha, keep beating me to it!!

#SACRILEGE    

11 hours ago, Marcin said:

China is probably the only country in the world that seriously takes under consideration

planetary effects

Yep. I mean, you can't see infront of your face there, but apart from that....

Edited September 14, 2019 by Guest

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

Then 9/11/2001 happened and Bush jr was distracted by its advisors to pursue wars in Middle East and Central Asia.

China was saved, it gained a few years of Opportunity Window.

What a lovely view of the world you have. It was saved. Woohoo. Team China!! Go Xi!  

Terrorism and lots of death somewhere else saved us. Yay! 

Get the kids back to work, yay!

We haven't seen a horizon for months. Yay!

Edited September 14, 2019 by Guest

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

In 2000/2001 Chinese growth accelerated, they invested like mad, like the country preparing for the total war.

Next came global financial crisis and US was distracted for the second time.

YAY !!!    The 'Total War'      WOOHOO.

Communism, yay!!    We love you Xi

I have no more time for your evil nonsense.

Good day.

 

Edited September 14, 2019 by Guest

[Boat + 1,324]

On 9/12/2019 at 2:30 PM, ronwagn said:

The wages in China are, reportedly, nearing that of Mexico. There are many countries with lower standards of living and who would love to produce products for companies. Their wages are lower than the Chinese now offer. The main gains for us is weakening China, our greatest competitor worldwide, gaining new or better friends, lower prices, less technology theft, less strong arming of  our companies by China. 

American companies have to find a way to beat Chinese production or farm out production. If they cannot, China wins. If China decides to play fair they can keep most of the production but once they lose it they may not get it back. They are going to focus on meeting the needs of their own people with their own products.That is their best choice anyway. Cheap Chinese products have been great for consumers, but not for our well being as a nation in the long run. 

So if Chinese wages are approaching Mexico I would say Mexico is more backwards than I assumed. China has a rural population of peasants larger than the US has in total population. That is an extremely low educated workforce to draw from if that’s what you want for labor. 

The US leads in college debt for a comparison but corporate still screams for educated immigration to drive wages lower for those who did train their brain. 

As robots and AI take jobs from the uneducated which country is better prepared. I do not fear China’s labor force. 

However access for American companies to the China market should be a given. That has to be a rule of the road basic for any country that wants access to American markets. That should be what trade wars are fought for.

As the world fights climate change China and all of Asia will have to learn how to control their populations and their pollution. Trade laws will become the enforcement arm for survival.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

So if Chinese wages are approaching Mexico I would say Mexico is more backwards than I assumed. China has a rural population of peasants larger than the US has in total population. That is an extremely low educated workforce to draw from if that’s what you want for labor. 

The US leads in college debt for a comparison but corporate still screams for educated immigration to drive wages lower for those who did train their brain. 

As robots and AI take jobs from the uneducated which country is better prepared. I do not fear China’s labor force. 

However access for American companies to the China market should be a given. That has to be a rule of the road basic for any country that wants access to American markets. That should be what trade wars are fought for.

As the world fights climate change China and all of Asia will have to learn how to control their populations and their pollution. Trade laws will become the enforcement arm for survival.

I don't think that Asia will let population control get in the way of their economy. Old people, like myself, are not producers. They are living off of whatever rewards they gained from their prior employment and whatever value they still have as consumers and through good works. The real problem for Asians (especially Japanese} is that reproductive rates are dropping, thus the elderly become a burden if they are mainly supported by the government. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Marcin said:

1. China is probably the only country in the world that seriously takes under consideration

planetary effects of its actions in so many areas.

That is why food security is the issue of national security.

That is why they have Strategic Pork Reserve, Strategic Wheat Reserve etc.

Because if there is an awful natural disaster in China, not enough pork or wheat or rice

exist on planet Earth to feed 1.4 billion Chinese even if everybody is the willing seller.

Tariff wars are really the least important contingency, they are prepared for true Acts of God.

2. To directly criticize Xi Jinping in China AD 2019 is SACRILEGE.

CPC emulates proved by 3000 years of Chinese history imperial model of governance.

Only the Emperor is collective, it is called the Standing Committee, at present 7 guys that rule China.

But Xi Jinping gained so much power that first time since Mao he is the single emperor,

not the first among equals as in the past.

And that worries Chinese, it should be source of joy for Americans because Xi already makes mistakes

in economy area but only he can decide to correct them, nobody else.

The people can take control of China. A revolution against the emperor for life is possible. He must keep China a dictatorship in the midst of a world that is made up of relatively free people. The Chinese know the rest of the world through travel. They are not like the North Koreans. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I don't think that Asia will let population control get in the way of their economy. Old people, like myself, are not producers. They are living off of whatever rewards they gained from their prior employment and whatever value they still have as consumers and through good works. The real problem for Asians (especially Japanese} is that reproductive rates are dropping, thus the elderly become a burden if they are mainly supported by the government. 

That's a north American problem too - more and more people collecting and fewer taxpayers.  Nothing a solid dose of immigration can't fix

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

1. More CHINA… intriguing anecdotes from Dinny McMahon

   • Dinny is the author of the book (2018) China’s Great Wall of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle.
     (3 Paragraphs below clipped from Amazon)
     Over the course of a decade spent reporting on the ground in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon gradually came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong.

     In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system, have all become a regular fixture in the press in recent years, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it.

     Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the Chinese economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers; or why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina; or why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities; or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over the distribution of table salt.

     Jul 25, 2019
     Fascinating interview with Dinny McMahon by Jason Burack
     (70 minutes – audio podcast)
     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE1vMcatF1E

Edited September 14, 2019 by Tom Nolan

[Marcin + 519]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

The people can take control of China. A revolution against the emperor for life is possible. He must keep China a dictatorship in the midst of a world that is made up of relatively free people. The Chinese know the rest of the world through travel. They are not like the North Koreans.

It seems that Chinese trust&support its dictatorship government. According to 2019 Edelman Public barometer 86% of Chinese trust government. According to Pew Research for the years 2008-2017 over 80% of Chinese said yes to the question "Are You satisfied with the way things are going in our country ?"

So there is distant possibility that in every sample significant number of people were scared to tell the truth, but I do not think so.

Otherwise significant part of 160 million Chinese that travelled abroad in 2018 would not return.

Chinese are relatively free&safe society, the taboo is to try to overthrow the rule of Communist Party or even speak about it.

Chinese dictatorship or meritocracy as they call it really delivers.

You do not have to take my opinion, read a few statistics, it is obvious that Chinese government has very good track record.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 minutes ago, Marcin said:

It seems that Chinese trust&support its dictatorship government. According to 2019 Edelman Public barometer 86% of Chinese trust government. According to Pew Research for the years 2008-2017 over 80% of Chinese said yes to the question "Are You satisfied with the way things are going in our country ?"

So there is distant possibility that in every sample significant number of people were scared to tell the truth, but I do not think so.

Otherwise significant part of 160 million Chinese that travelled abroad in 2018 would not return.

Chinese are relatively free&safe society, the taboo is to try to overthrow the rule of Communist Party or even speak about it.

Chinese dictatorship or meritocracy as they call it really delivers.

You do not have to take my opinion, read a few statistics, it is obvious that Chinese government has very good track record.

My China Stories https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Wb2YoQGpSWTz32ljsiA_ey6FLVqc2Dpe7Fnpiqn9lBs/edit

[Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas + 96]

18 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

The ones talking about internal Chinese pressure from lack of food.

China has plenty of food.  I can assure everyone of this.  The food I buy in America comes from China (i.e. the Chinese grocery stores in America gets their food from China because it's cheaper).  

Food inflation in China
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/food-inflation

Food inflation in USA
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/food-inflation

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Marcin said:

80% of Chinese said yes to the question "Are You satisfied with the way things are going in our country ?"

LOL WOW. What happens if they say No??

47 minutes ago, Marcin said:

the taboo is to try to overthrow the rule of Communist Party or even speak about it.

Thankyou for proving my point within a few sentences. 

#1984

Edited September 14, 2019 by Guest