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US and China are already in a full economic war and this battle for global hegemony is a little bit frightening

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1. Both United States and China are in full war for global hegemony and both countries are using all the resources at their disposal to pursue the Goal.

2. The fight for supremacy will be very long (20 years at least) and it will go very nasty&brutal, all but the direct nuclear confrontation is possible.

 

First I try to explain why Hegemony is so important ?

Being the Global Hegemon is the Ultimate Prize for any very large country

as the main privileges are: the reserve currency status & unlimited access to resources (natural and other) because of dominant military.

It usually comes this way:

largest economy->strongest military->the reserve currency,

For The United States the timing of achieving the status from British Empire was:

- 1870s the largest economy or about 1900s if all the British Empire is counted,

- early 1940s the strongest military,

- 1940s USD becomes dominant reserve currency.

 

 

Who could be or were contenders after 1945 for US hegemonic position ?

 

Soviet Union after 1945: Never had a chance, below described why

Population 1/4 larger than US, large area, good access to natural resources, placed in Eurasia, since 1950s sophisticated military

but due to inefficient economic model (isolated&centrally planned economy) and political model (very limited civil liberties, no rule of law, isolated society) Soviet Union never was even close.

Soviet Union was a problem for the world as evil, militaristic empire but its development model was only attractive for a few dictators. It was always a dangerous outsider.

At present with less than 150m population it would never be candidate.

Japan was never a contender. Small population (40% of US), isolated islands with no natural resources, limited sovereignty (subordinate country of United States).

European Union – never was or tried to be a contender.

Significant population&economy, but power of EU is much smaller than sum of its constituent countries due to divergent interests, lack of important natural resources, limited sovereignty of important countries: Germany and United Kingdom. Important countries are: Germany (economy) and both UK and France (economy, military, status at UN)

Any other candidates on Earth ?

By population only: China and India other countries are way too small and have bad geography (like Brazil or Indonesia).

India – could not be contender in the foreseeable future, because: third world country, less than 10% of population engaged in sth we could call meaningful economic activity.

This lefts us with China.

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Unfortunately China is different than countries assessed in previous post.

I would try to explain why it is a very dangerous candidate for the Top Spot. Candidate with very limited weaknesses.

I would list and characterize a bunch of metrics, could call it Key Performance Indicators that will be used to compare chances of both United States and China in global race for world hegemony.

Geographical location and potential connectivity

China is located in Eurasia (Europa+Asia), 73% of world people live (5.3 billion) there and it has land borders with 14 countries. On the other hand United States is located in North America, 8% of global population (0.6 billion) live there with land borders with 2 countries.

Over 30% of world people live as close neighbours of China (not more than 1000 miles off its borders), and 3% of world people live as close neighbours of United States.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines are within 48 hours journey by ship from major Chinese cities, it is less than 1000 miles. Such proximity is crucial to build close, reliable supply chains.

On the other hand it takes about 20 days to cross Pacific from West Coast to East Asia

(5500 miles from Los Angeles to Tokyo, over 6000 miles from West Coast to East Asia coast).

US East Coast is much closer to European shores 3000-4000 miles but it is still a long way.

 

Any geographical location could be both blessing and obstacle.

In the past United States location in North America, bordered by 2 weak countries and 2 vast Oceans was the best of all Great Powers, very safe as it was automatically immune against practically all threats to motherland.

China with very long land borders with strong countries and maritime proximity to Japan, Korea and Western colonial possessions in East Asia was very vulnerable, it was very bad geographical location.

Since the development of nuclear weapons it does not make much difference. There is currently no reliable defence against ICBMs with MIRVs and it takes 20 minutes of flight to strike any point on the globe.

Large area countries like United States, Russia or China will be always capable to launch land based retaliatory strike against attackers even if marine part of nuclear triad is destroyed by first strike.

So at present Chinese location is better than United States. Chinese location gives it much more opportunities to create close economic ties with Asian countries.

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(edited)

I'm speechless. 

Edited by DayTrader

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On 9/11/2019 at 11:14 PM, Marcin said:

Unfortunately China is different than countries assessed in previous post.

 

I would try to explain why it is a very dangerous candidate for the Top Spot. Candidate with very limited weaknesses.

 

I would list and characterize a bunch of metrics, could call it Key Performance Indicators that will be used to compare chances of both United States and China in global race for world hegemony.

 

Geographical location and potential connectivity

 

China is located in Eurasia (Europa+Asia), 73% of world people live (5.3 billion) there and it has land borders with 14 countries. On the other hand United States is located in North America, 8% of global population (0.6 billion) live there with land borders with 2 countries.

 

Over 30% of world people live as close neighbours of China (not more than 1000 miles off its borders), and 3% of world people live as close neighbours of United States.

 

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines are within 48 hours journey by ship from major Chinese cities, it is less than 1000 miles. Such proximity is crucial to build close, reliable supply chains.

 

On the other hand it takes about 20 days to cross Pacific from West Coast to East Asia

 

(5500 miles from Los Angeles to Tokyo, over 6000 miles from West Coast to East Asia coast).

 

US East Coast is much closer to European shores 3000-4000 miles but it is still a long way.

 

 

 

Any geographical location could be both blessing and obstacle.

 

In the past United States location in North America, bordered by 2 weak countries and 2 vast Oceans was the best of all Great Powers, very safe as it was automatically immune against practically all threats to motherland.

 

China with very long land borders with strong countries and maritime proximity to Japan, Korea and Western colonial possessions in East Asia was very vulnerable, it was very bad geographical location.

 

Since the development of nuclear weapons it does not make much difference. There is currently no reliable defence against ICBMs with MIRVs and it takes 20 minutes of flight to strike any point on the globe.

 

Large area countries like United States, Russia or China will be always capable to launch land based retaliatory strike against attackers even if marine part of nuclear triad is destroyed by first strike.

 

So at present Chinese location is better than United States. Chinese location gives it much more opportunities to create close economic ties with Asian countries.

 

Sounds good! Let the games begin!

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China appears to be warning it's citizens that there will be 'difficulties ahead'. Presumably these 'difficulties' will include economic retrenchment, partly due to an overextended government and partly do to external backlash, whether the US 'trade war', increasing restrictions on capital acquisition in Europe, or Belt and Road participants that have gotten caught up in debt traps and are flushing out acquiescent political kingpins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YENMDYEU9s

 

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China cancels visit

Could be bad

Reeeeal bad

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"facing difficulties ahead." so?

all countries face difficulties ahead, which I venture to say with certainty. 

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(edited)

On 9/16/2019 at 1:28 AM, Meredith Poor said:

China appears to be warning it's citizens that there will be 'difficulties ahead'. Presumably these 'difficulties' will include economic retrenchment, partly due to an overextended government and partly do to external backlash, whether the US 'trade war', increasing restrictions on capital acquisition in Europe, or Belt and Road participants that have gotten caught up in debt traps and are flushing out acquiescent political kingpins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YENMDYEU9s

 

Don't listen to that guy.  He lost his perceived white privilege in China and became quite bitter. He and his friend are slamming China in their videos. They don't do honest work anymore but get sponsorships and make their living doing this type of thing.

You can check this other guy out. He is posting his honest opinions and not making any money out of his videos.

https://youtu.be/dgY5daoQbxA

I had dinner around 3 weeks ago with an American national who lives in China. He told me that the general populace is not very aware of the severe trade war being waged by America - other than news about Huawei.  There may be some economic  slowdown, but life is quite normal.The Chinese government is keeping a tight lid on news to prevent a backlash against American companies, products and services. There is no anti-American hysteria in China like Americans are having against China. I think the Chinese government is trying to keep American companies sweet, to keep them as much as possible as allies against the Trump Administration.

 

Edited by Hotone
Wording

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15 hours ago, Hotone said:

Don't listen to that guy.  He lost his perceived white privilege in China and became quite bitter. He and his friend are slamming China in their videos. They don't do honest work anymore but get sponsorships and make their living doing this type of thing.

You can check this other guy out. He is posting his honest opinions and not making any money out of his videos.

https://youtu.be/dgY5daoQbxA

I had dinner around 3 weeks ago with an American national who lives in China. He told me that the general populace is not very aware of the severe trade war being waged by America - other than news about Huawei.  There may be some economic  slowdown, but life is quite normal.The Chinese government is keeping a tight lid on news to prevent a backlash against American companies, products and services. There is no anti-American hysteria in China like Americans are having against China. I think the Chinese government is trying to keep American companies sweet, to keep them as much as possible as allies against the Trump Administration.

 

Regardless of the credibility of the speaker, there either are or are not ads being broadcast by the Chinese government warning people that there will be 'difficulties'. Your response pretty much evades this question. Whether people are 'aware' of a trade war or not would have little bearing on downsizing in some of the primary metals manufacturing districts, or reductions in the armed forces, or other changes that are driven by internal circumstances rather than foreign issues.

A lot of YouTubers make money. This seems to occur regardless of their opinions or content.

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5 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

I think the Chinese government is trying to keep American companies sweet, to keep them as much as possible as allies against the Trump Administration.

American companies provide Americans, and provide American technology.  Both are resources for China to go tap into.  The American expats tend to have a large backlog of experience in their fields and (of course) immediate access to other Americans in the USA.  Pushing those guys out the door, by making life difficult for their employers, is thus self-defeating;  the Chinese need that access. The American companies also provide a gateway for the sale of Chinese-made products into the USA, tariffs or no tariffs.  There is no percentage in pushing those guys out the door, either.  

China exports manufactures and imports foodstuffs and raw materials, and energy.  That is the way they are set up, and to make changes will cause lots of disruption and cost lots of money.  Not much point in doing that just to be prideful, now is there?

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India is siding with the U.S.

China should be nervous in the trade war.

Here is something that U.S. mainstream media simply will not show you...

 India's Prime Minister introducing Trump at the India / U.S. forum in Houston Texas.

If you dislike (or hate) Trump and / or the U.S. then I would encourage you to listen carefully to India's PM, speaking slowly and clearly for a global audience to hear:

PM Modi welcomes US President Donald Trump at Howdy Modi event

 

It was a truly remarkable introduction.  CNN ignored it, obviously, and would never be caught dead airing it.

Full stadium in Houston for this event:

p92wx0pgc7o31.jpg.475e982e67a1b5f746dadfb13b61c711.jpg

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(edited)

On 9/11/2019 at 7:21 PM, Marcin said:

1. Both United States and China are in full war for global hegemony and both countries are using all the resources at their disposal to pursue the Goal.

2. The fight for supremacy will be very long (20 years at least) and it will go very nasty&brutal, all but the direct nuclear confrontation is possible.

First I try to explain why Hegemony is so important ?

Being the Global Hegemon is the Ultimate Prize for any very large country

as the main privileges are: the reserve currency status & unlimited access to resources (natural and other) because of dominant military.

It usually comes this way: largest economy->strongest military->the reserve currency,

Japan was never a contender. Small population (40% of US), isolated islands with no natural resources, limited sovereignty (subordinate country of United States).

European Union – never was or tried to be a contender.

Significant population&economy, but power of EU is much smaller than sum of its constituent countries due to divergent interests, lack of important natural resources, limited sovereignty of important countries: Germany and United Kingdom. Important countries are: Germany (economy) and both UK and France (economy, military, status at UN)

Any other candidates on Earth ?

By population only: China and India other countries are way too small and have bad geography (like Brazil or Indonesia).

India – could not be contender in the foreseeable future, because: third world country, less than 10% of population engaged in sth we could call meaningful economic activity.

This lefts us with China.

The concept of hegemony and the exclusive list of countries might be misleading............. 

1. US was involved in world war II because Japan blew off Pearl Habour...... US nuked Nagasaki and Hiroshima to end the war in few days............ US did not respond when told how many children; women and men were killed brutally while the Japs sweeping their path from the north to the south.......... US reacted because their men were killed and facilities were hit in Hawaii........... The later development might have been a surprise turn. Owing to the courage or fearlessness displayed which resulted in a quick ending of WWII...... US is always called when countries are on dispute after that.......... They are selected to be the big brother to help the weak and the poor............. In a nutshell.......... they did not do it on purpose to have spred far and wide with the military influence and purchase power on raw materials and etc but by accidental chance......... (p/s: nowadays might be a different story......)

2. There has been a hearsay........ oversea chinese were never treated very well. Mostly looked down upon; insulted or mistreated by others especially the whites (with blue eyes?? Quote from Mr. Bolsanaro)........... Therefore....... China makes it a national aim to revive the glorious past as one of the five earliest civilizations of the world peacefully. Historically China had invented many earliest technologies and established a few influences. Besides that China has never been arrogant enough to invade or to provoke any war. They have enough problems with their internal zones. In a nutshell...... speculating the intention of China to become wholesome again is likely dangerous line that could provoke unnecessary war or dispute amidst countries.......

p/s: there has been a stand down of trade war leading by Chinese Oilers. It's a silly game they said......... They have decided not to heed the bait.........

 

3. Although small....... never undermind the determination of Japan to fullfill its dream of becoming an Imperial Empire. It has been a compulsory lesson in any secondary book in the vicinity......... The uprising of Japan as the world richest country; the world top technology player superceeding the US; the world best model of being resilient and etc might have been highly praised but overlooked the far reaching aim behind those achievements......

4. So is Europe........... especially country(ies) with special past................ It's a different ball game at this level........ How can we help you to be more efficient?

5. According to Indian ellites...... Indians are proud that India has almost everything and especially proud with their IT sector and Bollywood. India is prepared to go to war with Pakistan and Bangladesh and expected to win........ and etc........ Their arrogance is starting to show but to conquer the world might still be a distance away......

8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

India is siding with the U.S.

India doesn't have a famous history to be relied on. To grow...... they might not like to align themselves with the East for a few thinkable reasons. One of them might be snobbishness....... Same with Singapore.......... So they will need to align with the west.......... Behavioral pattern is predictable as the joke below:

image.png.925360af8e8cfd89745cf0b3640fdc99.png

Edited by specinho
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(edited)

2 hours ago, specinho said:

T

2. There has been a hearsay........ oversea chinese were never treated very well. Mostly looked down upon; insulted or mistreated by others especially the whites (with blue eyes?? Quote from Mr. Bolsanaro)........... Therefore....... China makes it a national aim to revive the glorious past as one of the five earliest civilizations of the world peacefully. Historically China had invented many earliest technologies and established a few influences. Besides that China has never been arrogant enough to invade or to provoke any war. They have enough problems with their internal zones. In a nutshell...... speculating the intention of China to become wholesome again is likely dangerous line that could provoke unnecessary war or dispute amidst countries.......

🤣🙄🤣🙄🤣🙄🤣🙄😎

Lets see, all in the last 80 years...

  1.  Canton/all of southern China
  2.  Tibet
  3.  Inner Mongolia
  4.  Uigyhar
  5.  India
  6.  Bhutan
  7.  Vietnam
  8. S. China Sea
  9. Korea/Manchuko(Manchuria)

Through history prior to Communists(latest batch of oligarchs) EVERY single one of these countries(other than India/Bhutan) has been attacked by the Han Chinese Many many many many times. 

"Peace".

China's neighbors, unlike goobers on an internet forum, know all about China's "peaceful" intentions. 

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com
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(edited)

I can't even read his green stuff so fair play if you did jeez

On 9/23/2019 at 9:01 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

"Peace".

 

Edited by DayTrader

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I don’t think this is as scarey as many, even though I do believe that the outcome will be a critical element of the direction of the global economy, and further, I think that at some point the parties had to come to the (poker) table with the cajones to put some money at risk. The purpose being to begin the long process of hammering out areas where we feel the most damage has been done (i.e. where the chinese government has cheated its global trading partners).

Seems to me that in our desire to drum up support for a less than pleasant “must-do” we run the risk of over-vilification. For instance, I feel that the new rhetoric is that the opening up of China and the ensuing Chinese miracle was just a huge mistake. Faaaar from it in my opinion - and the reason I believe that is multi-faceted. A few of those facets are:

1) Market economics are cool and now there are lots of Chinese that have increasingly similar values to us (bonus - they aren’t starving). It has provided yet more proof of the benefits of personal property ownership, working for yourself (as opposed to “society” aka “the guvment”). Yes, it was done with a Chinese psuedo-authoritarian/communist flavor, but daamn, look how many people were lifted out of poverty in such an incredibly short period of time! It’s such a cool reminder of why you should feel good about producing wealth for yourself in a, relatively, free market - less people are starving! 

2) There are many reasons ($$$) for both sides to work our frustrations out before initiating military conflict (side note, I have lots of military friends and would prefer we don’t risk their lives unnecessarily).  While our DoD believes we need to prepare for great power warfare, I still feel a lot more confident I will be dying of old age (or probably some dietary bs) than if we were entering this posture from a place of zero economic integration. 

3) I find Asian women are very attractive (although I suppose I’m like the United Nations when it comes to that... I take all comers (get it??)) and so ya, not sure why this is a facet but it is...

Anywayyy, let’s not delude ourselves. China has been naughty and specifically their government. We should challenge them, just like you would your friend/family member that has matured and made huge progress in their life in the last 30 years, but still has more to work on. Buuut, patience is a virtue and we shouldn’t run with the de-coupling jazz to a point that we start to lose those increasingly common values. For us (I’m american if you couldn’t tell), we feel cheated and want to remain top dog (ps/side note/apologies for tangent - maybe we should, we’ve done a pretty damn good job so far... queue historically incompetent anti-American peeps), but consider how far China has come in a historically short period of time. Let’s not get up in our ivory towers and armchair QB everything, let’s focus on what matters. Not personally a Trump fan, but hell, let’s make a deal, I wanna make a deal, I think modern day America isn’t so bad (queue perpetually pessimistic trolls).

Life here is pretty good and a lot better than all our warfare, so we should probably have reasonable expectations about changing their government, even if it is oppressive. And make no mistake, if you have not been there and you were raised in a “Western” economy, then it can be hard to get your head around just how much control they exert over information. For families that last generation were plowing fields on “society-owned” property, going to the big city and working their ASSES OFF, it’s hard to find ways to read between the lines of government info control. You kinda just read what you see and have little reason to question - remember, many of these people had starving families and now don’t, why question the government? 

I prefer that if their government needs to change, that should be up to their people. So let’s not bash it too much, it could be a whoooole lot worse (like Venezuela or Russia or Saudi). 

In the meantime, I urge some glass half full perspectives, and let’s hope we can hammer some stuff out, reduce over-dependencies on both sides, and keep the post-WW2 global miracle going. 

Alright, I’m going to sign off now, as there are a whole bunch of related/sub-topics id like to get into, but I want to spare you the need to continue reading this drivel. 

- sincerely, lover of Asian women

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9 minutes ago, ChrisG said:

I don’t think....

(i.e. where the chinese government has cheated its global trading partners).

1) Market economics are cool and now there are lots of Chinese that have increasingly similar values to us (bonus - they aren’t starving). It has provided yet more proof of the benefits of personal property ownership, working for yourself (as opposed to “society” aka “the guvment”). Yes, it was done with a Chinese psuedo-authoritarian/communist flavor, but daamn, look how many people were lifted out of poverty in such an incredibly short period of time! It’s such a cool reminder of why you should feel good about producing wealth for yourself in a, relatively, free market - less people are starving!

Until adherence to WTO rules are followed like every other nation in the WTO which China promised to implement 20 years ago..... 20... I don't care if they are kicked entirely OUT of WTO.  You cannot have rules for one and then everyone else because EVERYONE will rightly start to OPENLY cheat as well.  Yes, people cheat, but if rules are being followed the number of cheaters is very small.  But if it is open and only way to participate.... anarchy

Yes, humans are the same everywhere, they want to keep what they earn and despise thieves who destroy. 

PS: Yes, women are beautiful... who knew?

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Fair point, re:WTO stuff. Again, I’m not arguing for rolling over, I agree with the need for us to have begun this (for reals this time) challenge to their cheating ways. I just don’t personally think it will be the end of the world, the end of American hegemony (still think we’ve done a pretty good job), nor should we be hoping for complete and utter de-coupling. 

Uh oh, side note again - I used to manage procurement for $100m annually of Chinese produced goods. It’s a pain and they are always cheating, but I think once they see previously never-ending-seeming growth disappear, they’ll be looking to step up their legitimate game. The rebalancing of the global supply chain is already helping that and reducing over-dependence at the same time. 

It is tough though, part of the reason for their export central economy (and therefore resulting need to resort to IP theft in high tech industries) is the fact that their people have no social safety net and therefore work incredibly late in life and have maintained the traditional familial structure and living arrangements. A byproduct being that they save instead of consume, which makes it hard for them to get their domestic consumption going and rebalance their economy. On the other hand, as debtor nations, it’s ncie to have creditor nations out there in the world. (I think anyway, might have just confused myself.)

 

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1 hour ago, ChrisG said:

I don’t think this is as scarey as many, even though I do believe that the outcome will be a critical element of the direction of the global economy, and further, I think that at some point the parties had to come to the (poker) table with the cajones to put some money at risk. The purpose being to begin the long process of hammering out areas where we feel the most damage has been done (i.e. where the chinese government has cheated its global trading partners).

Seems to me that in our desire to drum up support for a less than pleasant “must-do” we run the risk of over-vilification. For instance, I feel that the new rhetoric is that the opening up of China and the ensuing Chinese miracle was just a huge mistake. Faaaar from it in my opinion - and the reason I believe that is multi-faceted. A few of those facets are:

1) Market economics are cool and now there are lots of Chinese that have increasingly similar values to us (bonus - they aren’t starving). It has provided yet more proof of the benefits of personal property ownership, working for yourself (as opposed to “society” aka “the guvment”). Yes, it was done with a Chinese psuedo-authoritarian/communist flavor, but daamn, look how many people were lifted out of poverty in such an incredibly short period of time! It’s such a cool reminder of why you should feel good about producing wealth for yourself in a, relatively, free market - less people are starving! 

2) There are many reasons ($$$) for both sides to work our frustrations out before initiating military conflict (side note, I have lots of military friends and would prefer we don’t risk their lives unnecessarily).  While our DoD believes we need to prepare for great power warfare, I still feel a lot more confident I will be dying of old age (or probably some dietary bs) than if we were entering this posture from a place of zero economic integration. 

 

I started this topic mainly because I noticed rising tide of over-vilification of China and everything Chinese in the United States.

I observe the increasing trend of across the board vilification of China in US media since "pivot to Asia"  project under Obama,

but under Trump it accelerated.

And this is a very dangerous trend, trend that leads to war, nuclear war, please find argumentation in the bullet points:

- US society is very easy to  manipulate as US citizens do not have access to independent sources of information. Americans travel relatively rarely and lack first hand experience relating to how really people live in other countries, especially distant ones.

- American system of education is not teaching US citizens about history and geography of the world, people without basic knowledge are easier to manipulate,

- American national philosophy is exceptionalism, that is a belief that Americans are indispensable, chosen nation. It implicitly states that United States is a country better than all other (so it is natural to "teach" others the rules, truth etc. it is called American arogance),

- The last war on American soil was American Civil War, so there is no lucid memory left about the fact what war is to civilians. So average US citizen is not aware how much suffering the wars conducted by US are causing to many nations in the world. So you can read about US "liberating" Syrian people, defending them against dictators etc. US citizens (and politicians) only care about US military casualties.

- American propaganda machine organized by mass media is very, very  efficient.

- There are many precedents in the last 20 years where United States brutally destroyed whole countries like Iraq, Libya or Syria even that the countries and the objectives were much less important than current conflict with China.

- United States has the strongest army, army that is mainly offensive in nature, designed to conquer and destroy adversaries and not to defend the motherland. US army is mainly located outside of US borders (only such case in the world) in numerous bases in vassal countries. Nobody spends 750 billion USD every year on toys that it will not use.

- Goals of US politics are driven mainly by money donated by lobbysts, money that is needed to finance multi billion campagn circus every 2 years. Military complex corporations are one of main donors.

- Because of current US military supremacy any attacked country must resort to nuclear weapons to succesfully defend against agression,

- There is massive propaganda about US missile defence . The fact that it is currently useless agains ICBMs is not important and US society does not know it. China at present has officially only 300 warheads, so there is temptation in Pentagon to believe that first strike could be succesful or with limited warheads reaching main US cities,

- US has many internal political and economic problems but because Americans are exceptional they are not effectively solved, so common external enemy is a useful tool, (fiscal&trade deficit, rotting infrastructure, decreasing level of eduction , rising inequalities, increase in crime etc.)

- United States in long-term cannot compete with China in economic terms. China is currently much better in education (PISA 2015), and is closing fast R&D gap (UNESCO 2018 data). Chinese government is very effective in building first class infrastructure of all types much better than existing US. And China has 4 times the US population and is located in Eurasia. US is located in distant sparsely populated continent North America. China is also closing military gap.

- IF China could achieve global hegemony renminbi would substitute US dollar as reserve currency. That will cause significant although probably temporary (maximum 20 years) decrease in American standard of living (no unlimited printing),

And all of this together is not a good prognosis for peaceful future.

 

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(edited)

@Marcin, let me initiate my rebuttal by saying that I think China has done a pretty good job in the grand scheme of things, since Mao's death, and the world as a whole has benefited from an improved life for a large portion of the planets population. Further, I myself pointed out that I feel that there has been too much over-vilification of China. That being said, while I find that you have a few logical arguments in your reply and several actually hit at major frustrations I have as an American myself, many others are... uhhh... not so good. Rounding out my introductory paragraph is, I sure hope it doesn't lead to nuclear war, because that would totally blow...

With that out of the way - onward!!

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- US society is very easy to  manipulate as US citizens do not have access to independent sources of information. Americans travel relatively rarely and lack first hand experience relating to how really people live in other countries, especially distant ones.

I'm going to say this is both somewhat reasonable and laughable at the same time! Not intending to offend, but here is why:

It is somewhat reasonable because, as I am frustratingly aware, we have limited un-biased sources of information, but that is far different than no access to independent information. We have the luxury of a free internet and while I can't find the reporting of facts that I would prefer, I can access multiple angles of opinion, if I so choose, and arrive at a fairly accurate picture of whatever I'm looking for. 

Now, it is laughable for many reasons, such as the wildly inaccurate claim that American's travel rarely. All 3 of the largest commercial airlines in the world are American companies. American's freaking love to travel. I myself have been to China a few times, and many other countries as well. This brings me to the second reason I think this argument is very weak and that is that the statement of our inability to access independent sources of information in the context of a comparison to China is... uhhh…. ridiculous. There are literally ZERO independent sources of information in China, and I think I can move on from this point because I like... just can't... be... nice... about... it...any...more... (and you know what momma always told me... #insidejoke4Americans)

 

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- American system of education is not teaching US citizens about history and geography of the world, people without basic knowledge are easier to manipulate

Ummm, Chinese text books are written by the government. They don't even reference the Tiananmen Square incident, but I'm sure that's the only thing they are not teaching their citizens about right? And on this topic, I hear this drivel a lot. Thus far I haven't had many discussions about history or geography with average people in other countries that are more aware of history and geography than I am. So while I actually agree that our system of education needs some work and history and geography should be more central, let's not act like the Chinese citizenry isn't similarly without basic knowledge and therefore easy to manipulate.

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- American national philosophy is exceptionalism, that is a belief that Americans are indispensable, chosen nation. It implicitly states that United States is a country better than all other (so it is natural to "teach" others the rules, truth etc. it is called American arogance),

Ooookay, name me a country of size or importance, with a functional government, that didn't have some sort of personal feeling of pride (and a degree of superiority/arrogance) engrained in their consciousness. Exceptionalism is something most people want to feel when they band together... it's kinda like that thing... uhhh, the one that all governments play off of for domestic support... ohh yeah, National Pride! I feel like China has some national pride too, 5,000 years of history and all. They probably never lord over others and act better than others...

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- United States has the strongest army, army that is mainly offensive in nature, designed to conquer and destroy adversaries and not to defend the motherland. US army is mainly located outside of US borders (only such case in the world) in numerous bases in vassal countries. Nobody spends 750 billion USD every year on toys that it will not use.

Basic strategy - the best defense is a good offense. Many of our overseas bases were obtained leading up to and after WW2, with a particularly large number from the British. Were you aware that thanks to those bases we have supported freedom of navigation, providing a huge boost to maritime trade, which has itself been a major component of the success of Asian economies since the end of WW2? Consider that several hundred years ago (here I go with that history thing again), the richest nations in the world bordered the Atlantic Ocean (of course you can nitpick, but by and large this is the case), and that was in large part due to maritime trade. At the same time that many Asian countries were blazing a path of economic success, Pacific trade surpassed Atlantic trade... sooo… you're welcome, China? no problem, any time my friends. I love fireworks, and I have you to thank for that after all.

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- US has many internal political and economic problems but because Americans are exceptional they are not effectively solved, so common external enemy is a useful tool, (fiscal&trade deficit, rotting infrastructure, decreasing level of eduction , rising inequalities, increase in crime etc.)

This is literally the playbook for autocratic and communist governments. China shifts blame like its going out of style. American media always has an element that is calling out our problems, so I just don't buy this. Every country has serious problems and most of them struggle to solve them. That shit just doesn't get fixed over night and sometimes it doesn't get fixed at all. 

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

- United States in long-term cannot compete with China in economic terms. China is currently much better in education (PISA 2015), and is closing fast R&D gap (UNESCO 2018 data). Chinese government is very effective in building first class infrastructure of all types much better than existing US. And China has 4 times the US population and is located in Eurasia. US is located in distant sparsely populated continent North America. China is also closing military gap.

I could write a freaking book on why this is nothing but conjecture and you simply cannot state as a fact that the US cannot compete long-term with China, for no other reason that it is projecting and therefore... not a fact. China has it's own massive problems lurking behind the scenes (but its not like they keep information from their citizens, right, so maybe I'm wrong... but I'm not).

Further, North America is awesome and while Mexico and Central America have their problems, there remains massive untapped opportunity for collaborative development that could be capitalized on at some point in the near future. Why is North America awesome? Massive amounts of resources, both discovered and yet-to-be. Tons of room to expand and build "stuff" - look at what Texas has done for it's economy thanks to urban sprawl, yet has significant trade volumes in such a "sparsely populated" area... oh wait, trucks and trains! I forgot about those. Diverse talent. Beauty and reasons that smart people want to move to it... other good stuff.

//

Anywhoooo, I'd like to end this by saying that I hope we can work things out because I think we're all better off if we continue to build on and with each other, and do it without resorting to military conflict, but just because China is rising doesn't mean it's destined to be numero uno.

- sincerely, someone writing from an uncensored location

Edited by ChrisG
  • Upvote 2

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On 9/11/2019 at 5:14 PM, Marcin said:

Unfortunately China is different than countries assessed in previous post.

 

I would try to explain why it is a very dangerous candidate for the Top Spot. Candidate with very limited weaknesses.

 

I would list and characterize a bunch of metrics, could call it Key Performance Indicators that will be used to compare chances of both United States and China in global race for world hegemony.

 

Geographical location and potential connectivity

 

China is located in Eurasia (Europa+Asia), 73% of world people live (5.3 billion) there and it has land borders with 14 countries. On the other hand United States is located in North America, 8% of global population (0.6 billion) live there with land borders with 2 countries.

 

Over 30% of world people live as close neighbours of China (not more than 1000 miles off its borders), and 3% of world people live as close neighbours of United States.

 

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines are within 48 hours journey by ship from major Chinese cities, it is less than 1000 miles. Such proximity is crucial to build close, reliable supply chains.

 

On the other hand it takes about 20 days to cross Pacific from West Coast to East Asia

 

(5500 miles from Los Angeles to Tokyo, over 6000 miles from West Coast to East Asia coast).

 

US East Coast is much closer to European shores 3000-4000 miles but it is still a long way.

 

 

 

Any geographical location could be both blessing and obstacle.

 

In the past United States location in North America, bordered by 2 weak countries and 2 vast Oceans was the best of all Great Powers, very safe as it was automatically immune against practically all threats to motherland.

 

China with very long land borders with strong countries and maritime proximity to Japan, Korea and Western colonial possessions in East Asia was very vulnerable, it was very bad geographical location.

 

Since the development of nuclear weapons it does not make much difference. There is currently no reliable defence against ICBMs with MIRVs and it takes 20 minutes of flight to strike any point on the globe.

 

Large area countries like United States, Russia or China will be always capable to launch land based retaliatory strike against attackers even if marine part of nuclear triad is destroyed by first strike.

 

So at present Chinese location is better than United States. Chinese location gives it much more opportunities to create close economic ties with Asian countries.

 

So, US should better looked for allies (EU, Japan) instead of fighting them. President Trump`s policy of fighting the world all alone has failed. It is sad to see his administration now begging for a quick trade agreement with China in order to limit the economic losses for his (former) voters.

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(edited)

(edited)

@Marcin, let me initiate my rebuttal by saying that I think China has done a pretty good job in the grand scheme of things, since Mao's death, and the world as a whole has benefited from an improved life for a large portion of the planets population. Further, I myself pointed out that I feel that there has been too much over-vilification of China. That being said, while I find that you have a few logical arguments in your reply and several actually hit at major frustrations I have as an American myself, many others are... uhhh... not so good. Rounding out my introductory paragraph is, I sure hope it doesn't lead to nuclear war, because that would totally blow...

With that out of the way - onward!!

@ChrisG Thank you for such a detailed and honest comment.

I am metrics & numbers driven and when I do not understand a topic or idea I try to get opinion of experts on the subject but with verification of their explanations. I do not have myself any stake in Chinese "win", I am Polish, and happy living in Pax Americana world.

Please find below some of the ideas I had behind the list of arguments and relatively high probability of ominous consequence of them:

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- US society is very easy to  manipulate as US citizens do not have access to independent sources of information. Americans travel relatively rarely and lack first hand experience relating to how really people live in other countries, especially distant ones.

I'm going to say this is both somewhat reasonable and laughable at the same time! Not intending to offend, but here is why:

It is somewhat reasonable because, as I am frustratingly aware, we have limited un-biased sources of information, but that is far different than no access to independent information. We have the luxury of a free internet and while I can't find the reporting of facts that I would prefer, I can access multiple angles of opinion, if I so choose, and arrive at a fairly accurate picture of whatever I'm looking for. 

M: As in every democratic country in US too, minority exists that: 1. Has intellectual capacity and 2. Wants to make an effort to arrive at balanced opinion. And it is often that 2. is needed just to do one's job right. Let's be optimistic and say 10% is like you.

Now, it is laughable for many reasons, such as the wildly inaccurate claim that American's travel rarely. All 3 of the largest commercial airlines in the world are American companies. American's freaking love to travel. I myself have been to China a few times, and many other countries as well. This brings me to the second reason I think this argument is very weak and that is that the statement of our inability to access independent sources of information in the context of a comparison to China is... uhhh…. ridiculous. There are literally ZERO independent sources of information in China, and I think I can move on from this point because I like... just can't... be... nice... about... it...any...more... (and you know what momma always told me... #insidejoke4Americans)

M: Air travel in US is mainly domestic driven. Per data (National Travel and Tourism Office does a great job) : U.S. Citizen Traffic to Overseas Regions, Canada & Mexico, and expert assesments, less than 10% of Americans  travel often abroad (and I do not mean Mexico, Canada or Caribbean resorts) i mean like once every 5 years. And most of them (over 50%) were for a week or 2 on vacation in Europe. Majority of the rest of the rest are people travelling on business or immigrants visiting relatives in home countries. Exposure of Americans to foreign countries is minimal, lower than West European citizens or even ... Chinese. 10% of Americans traveling abroad are probably the same as 10% of critical thinkers and accidentally most of them are in 100k+ annual income bracket.

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- American system of education is not teaching US citizens about history and geography of the world, people without basic knowledge are easier to manipulate

Ummm, Chinese text books are written by the government. They don't even reference the Tiananmen Square incident, but I'm sure that's the only thing they are not teaching their citizens about right? And on this topic, I hear this drivel a lot. Thus far I haven't had many discussions about history or geography with average people in other countries that are more aware of history and geography than I am. So while I actually agree that our system of education needs some work and history and geography should be more central, let's not act like the Chinese citizenry isn't similarly without basic knowledge and therefore easy to manipulate.

M: I do not know Chinese curriculum, I was only assessing US education vs US citizens reception of (war) propaganda. China will not be military problem for US for the long time, I take at least 30 years. Optimistically (for Chinese not for the rest of us) they achieve parity in 20 years.

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- American national philosophy is exceptionalism, that is a belief that Americans are indispensable, chosen nation. It implicitly states that United States is a country better than all other (so it is natural to "teach" others the rules, truth etc. it is called American arogance),

Ooookay, name me a country of size or importance, with a functional government, that didn't have some sort of personal feeling of pride (and a degree of superiority/arrogance) engrained in their consciousness. Exceptionalism is something most people want to feel when they band together... it's kinda like that thing... uhhh, the one that all governments play off of for domestic support... ohh yeah, National Pride! I feel like China has some national pride too, 5,000 years of history and all. They probably never lord over others and act better than others...

M: There is significant difference between the national pride and American exceptionalism. The dangerous feature of American exceptionalism is this arrogant urge to "teach" others by military means, American lack of distance to themselves and their country, lack of insight. And again probably 10% of US citizens is different.

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- United States has the strongest army, army that is mainly offensive in nature, designed to conquer and destroy adversaries and not to defend the motherland. US army is mainly located outside of US borders (only such case in the world) in numerous bases in vassal countries. Nobody spends 750 billion USD every year on toys that it will not use.

Basic strategy - the best defense is a good offense. Many of our overseas bases were obtained leading up to and after WW2, with a particularly large number from the British. Were you aware that thanks to those bases we have supported freedom of navigation, providing a huge boost to maritime trade, which has itself been a major component of the success of Asian economies since the end of WW2? Consider that several hundred years ago (here I go with that history thing again), the richest nations in the world bordered the Atlantic Ocean (of course you can nitpick, but by and large this is the case), and that was in large part due to maritime trade. At the same time that many Asian countries were blazing a path of economic success, Pacific trade surpassed Atlantic trade... sooo… you're welcome, China? no problem, any time my friends. I love fireworks, and I have you to thank for that after all.

M: I was nor precise enough in this argument. In order to  defend US and its interest and global freedom of navigation you do not need half of this hardware. Will give you example: so many many bombers and air tankers will be only useful in large scale invasion. The same with tactical nukes now developed by US, the same with medium range missiles etc. During the last 5 years US spent at least 1 trillion dollars on weapons that will be useful only in conflict with China.

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- US has many internal political and economic problems but because Americans are exceptional they are not effectively solved, so common external enemy is a useful tool, (fiscal&trade deficit, rotting infrastructure, decreasing level of eduction , rising inequalities, increase in crime etc.)

This is literally the playbook for autocratic and communist governments. China shifts blame like its going out of style. American media always has an element that is calling out our problems, so I just don't buy this. Every country has serious problems and most of them struggle to solve them. That shit just doesn't get fixed over night and sometimes it doesn't get fixed at all. 

M: I do not know much about US domestic politics. Agree that US media&politicians are discussing US domestic problems. What I mean is that data & experts opinions show that things are deteriorating every year not going in the right direction.

Name me 1 major US domestic problem that was addressed/partially amended in the last 10 years or more (I mean in 2018 it is in better shape than in 2008 or 2005 or 2011).

It is true that China was acting bad in IP protection (as all the once developing countries did). But at present China has very good domestic reason to protect IP: Chinese companies are developing lots of IP.

2 metrics for you: China in 2018 spent 495 billion in PPP USD on R&D and 75% was corporate (right after US, UNESCO data), China in 2018 was third after Japan and South Korea in patents granted in United States (yes better than Germany). They are developing really fast, should overtake South Korea in 2020 and Japan in 2025.

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

- United States in long-term cannot compete with China in economic terms. China is currently much better in education (PISA 2015), and is closing fast R&D gap (UNESCO 2018 data). Chinese government is very effective in building first class infrastructure of all types much better than existing US. And China has 4 times the US population and is located in Eurasia. US is located in distant sparsely populated continent North America. China is also closing military gap.

I could write a freaking book on why this is nothing but conjecture and you simply cannot state as a fact that the US cannot compete long-term with China, for no other reason that it is projecting and therefore... not a fact. China has it's own massive problems lurking behind the scenes (but its not like they keep information from their citizens, right, so maybe I'm wrong... but I'm not).

M: There is a general consensus among US&China experts that China, with current economi&political set up will reach about 50% of US GDP per capita. But lets not believe experts. Making a succesful modern country, is like making a cookie you need ingredients: education, R&D, rule of law, personal liberties, all types of physical infrastructure, military to defend what you built, effective financial infrastructure, good government, industry and industrial policy etc.

In most of the indicators China is on par or superior in comparison with leading high-income countries ( I mean 40-60k  USD per capita GDP countries), yet China only needs to develop from current 10k USD per capital GDP to about 15k USD per capita GDP to surpass United States as the largest ecoonmy.

And China is developing 2.5-3 times faster than United States. 2017 and 2018 were bad years for Chinese economy because they were slowing growth on purpose because needed to rein in bank credit expansion. So for sake of long-term growth and development in 2017-2018 Chinese growth was only about 6%.

The main weakness of China at present is its policy relating to private sector and scarce financing available to private sector,

other than that I do not see anything serious that could hamper growth.

Further, North America is awesome and while Mexico and Central America have their problems, there remains massive untapped opportunity for collaborative development that could be capitalized on at some point in the near future. Why is North America awesome? Massive amounts of resources, both discovered and yet-to-be. Tons of room to expand and build "stuff" - look at what Texas has done for it's economy thanks to urban sprawl, yet has significant trade volumes in such a "sparsely populated" area... oh wait, trucks and trains! I forgot about those. Diverse talent. Beauty and reasons that smart people want to move to it... other good stuff.

M: In North America there are basically only 3rd world countries bar US and Canada, but it does not matter anyway. US is 330, Mexico 130, Canada 40 million with Central America it is 580 m population. Eurasia is 5 billion people.

//

Anywhoooo, I'd like to end this by saying that I hope we can work things out because I think we're all better off if we continue to build on and with each other, and do it without resorting to military conflict, but just because China is rising doesn't mean it's destined to be numero uno.

- sincerely, someone writing from an uncensored location

Edited 8 hours ago by ChrisG
Edited by Marcin

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(edited)

On 9/24/2019 at 4:01 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Lets see, all in the last 80 years...

  1.  Canton/all of southern China
  2.  Tibet
  3.  Inner Mongolia
  4.  Uigyhar
  5.  India
  6.  Bhutan
  7.  Vietnam
  8. S. China Sea
  9. Korea/Manchuko(Manchuria)

Through history prior to Communists(latest batch of oligarchs) EVERY single one of these countries(other than India/Bhutan) has been attacked by the Han Chinese Many many many many times. 

"Peace".

China's neighbors, unlike goobers on an internet forum, know all about China's "peaceful" intentions. 

I'm not sure how you came to the conclusions but here are some info for your references:

1. Canton/Vietnam/all of southern China - you might have confused migration and natural assimilation (trades and job opportunities) with invasion (military attack)??

2. Inner Mongolia: It had been Khenghis Khan the leader of Mongolia and his successor's incessant attack on Han Dynasty that out of self defence Han Emperor ordered the retaliation to appease the situation. (check out movie Mulan?)

3. Tibet-Bhutan-India:

a) Bhutan is the only country never invaded/colonized by anyone in history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutan;

b) India is always busy with the triplets of Pakistan-Bangladesh-Nepal. China might not have chance to get involved at all.

c) Tibet - the highest out-look point at this region. Quote:" Tibet a suzerainty of the Mongol and later Chinese rulers in Nanjing and Beijing, with reasonable autonomy given to the Tibetan leaders." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet

With the surrender of Mongols - the rulingship of China onto Tibet becomes natural. When Tibet's Llama was provoked to run to India and fight for independence with India and others China decided to take control by sending administrator and army there. It is not invasion but defence of territory.......... Tibetians might have much improved conditions than before the defence.

4. Manchuria is part of Chinese Dynasties in the history. Could you be more specific how Manchurians were leading China at one point??

5. Ulgyhar / Uighur: According to history they are decendants of Turk..... Migrating into Xinjiang for economic reasons. They never have any land but ask for independenship as minority muslim community within territory of China. Could you be more specific by what you are trying to mean when you said China invaded Ulgyhar??

6. South China Sea: By the given name........ China has the right to protect its territory within 200km radiant off the coast....... A proper name is probably called EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Could you be more specific when you said this is an invasion?

 

Edited by specinho

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On 9/23/2019 at 4:37 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

India is siding with the U.S.

China should be nervous in the trade war.

Here is something that U.S. mainstream media simply will not show you...

 India's Prime Minister introducing Trump at the India / U.S. forum in Houston Texas.

If you dislike (or hate) Trump and / or the U.S. then I would encourage you to listen carefully to India's PM, speaking slowly and clearly for a global audience to hear:

PM Modi welcomes US President Donald Trump at Howdy Modi event

 

It was a truly remarkable introduction.  CNN ignored it, obviously, and would never be caught dead airing it.

Full stadium in Houston for this event:

BUMP!

I agree.  India is siding with the U.S.  

Allies are being chosen.  

Modi and his party are known for their radical often violent insistence that Hinduism remains strong in India and places under its control.

India invaded Kashmir not long ago and has around one million troops stationed there.  The capital of Pakistan is not far away from Kashmir.

 

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4 hours ago, specinho said:

I'm not sure how you came to the conclusions but here are some info for your references:

1. Canton/Vietnam/all of southern China - you might have confused migration and natural assimilation (trades and job opportunities) with invasion (military attack)??

2. Inner Mongolia: It had been Khenghis Khan the leader of Mongolia and his successor's incessant attack on Han Dynasty that out of self defence Han Emperor ordered the retaliation to appease the situation. (check out movie Mulan?)

3. Tibet-Bhutan-India:

a) Bhutan is the only country never invaded/colonized by anyone in history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutan;

b) India is always busy with the triplets of Pakistan-Bangladesh-Nepal. China might not have chance to get involved at all.

c) Tibet - the highest out-look point at this region. Quote:" Tibet a suzerainty of the Mongol and later Chinese rulers in Nanjing and Beijing, with reasonable autonomy given to the Tibetan leaders." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet

With the surrender of Mongols - the rulingship of China onto Tibet becomes natural. When Tibet's Llama was provoked to run to India and fight for independence with India and others China decided to take control by sending administrator and army there. It is not invasion but defence of territory.......... Tibetians might have much improved conditions than before the defence.

4. Manchuria is part of Chinese Dynasties in the history. Could you be more specific how Manchurians were leading China at one point??

5. Ulgyhar / Uighur: According to history they are decendants of Turk..... Migrating into Xinjiang for economic reasons. They never have any land but ask for independenship as minority muslim community within territory of China. Could you be more specific by what you are trying to mean when you said China invaded Ulgyhar??

6. South China Sea: By the given name........ China has the right to protect its territory within 200km radiant off the coast....... A proper name is probably called EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Could you be more specific when you said this is an invasion?

 

So, you admit China has attacked every single neighbor for everything from water, to coal, to fishing zones, even though they have never held control over most of these regions except for very short periods of time through history... and you call them "peaceful".    (PS: When Bhutan's "land" gets cut in half, but no troops "enter" the other half, I guess you can "claim" they were never invaded...)

Guess you REALLY want the roman empire to come back.  Viva La Roma!  Makes perfect logical sense.   Yea.... After all, Roman empire had control over these lands for ~1000 years to 1500 years while China has only had control over most of the lands it conquered in last 80 years for a couple hundred and most of those couple hundred were in the VERY distant past when Han CHINA was systematically subjugated/murdered/raped by the mongols.

So, according to your own logic, if someone conquers the UK, then that means whoever conquers them is justified in retaking the entire British empire... Yea, that is perfectly logical....  Russia, Iran, all of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, watch out, China demands return of its overmasters land, the mongols land from 700 years ago...

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