Tom Kirkman

Drone attacks cause fire at two Saudi Aramco facilities, blaze now under control

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(edited)

''Biggest day in oil impact ever. More than Iran in '79 or Hussein and Kuwait''  -  Bloomberg

By the way, Gold is up $22 in about an hour

Edited by DayTrader

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26 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Look at my recent post. Talk of $100 but I can't see it. Lot of news still to come though. 

50% production affected. This is nuts.

 

14 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Imagine how far it will go if there is retaliation $80/Bbl or higher?

 

Related comment from @Gerry Maddoux, copied in full from a different thread, from before the attack on Aramco:

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/7541-oil-production-growth-in-us-grinds-to-a-halt/page/5/?tab=comments#comment-66317

I'm a bit late to the party but would be remiss (to myself) in not registering my profound belief. The EIA is like a verse from Shakespeare: A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. 

When you look at their estimates of stored supply, there is a ten-million-barrel drawdown one week, a 350,000 buildup the next. Only when you go to find out why, and actually look at the manufacturing index, the home-builder's index, the refinery feedstock load that week--any index of what actually uses less or more of petroleum--there has been no demonstrable change. And yet the EIA moves markets. 

As a man who makes his living off oil and gas, I must reluctantly admit to some bitter truths: 1) The world is over-supplied with crude oil right now, if you measure it only on an as-needed basis. 2) To have a wee bit laid aside for a major disruption, the supply-demand ratio is just about right. 3) The current price is artificially low for Saudi Arabia and Oman and Nigeria and Iraq to balance their budgets, and also too low to keep most shale drillers from going broke. 4) Ergo, we're going to wallow out about $137 B worth of junk bonds floated to cowboys with more hat than cattle, see the super-majors gobble up most of those big-hat shale companies, and watch the Saudi scorpion sting a host of too-rich guys in the Saudi Aramco IPO. 5) About year 2022, we're going to probably be wondering about two unusual monetary events: negative interest rates and why in the holy hell we sold our Tier One tight oil more cheaply than Starbucks coffee. 

 

And a follow-up response to Gerry's comment by @Toranaga after the attack on Aramco:

@Gerry Maddoux  All good points. The attack on the Saudi oil facilities this weekend is a big escalation. Clearly an operation run by Iran.  Iran knew on Tuesday that Bolton was fired, and Trump offered to talk to them later in the week. Trump comes out looking like a dove. Now Iran has done this and it plays right into the hands of the hard-liners in the Trump admin and it might even shift the Europeans more to the American point-of-view. The attack also benefits the United States because the U.S. is the largest oil power now. High prices are great for us and help alleviate the $400 billion shale debt bubble. Very stupid move by Iran.  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

One day Jan. One day there will be a topic you know f**k all about

Today is not that day.

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Oh crap, looks like this is going to escalate.  Bad move by Trump, in my opinion.

Trump Authorizes Release of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve After Saudi Attacks

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday evening that he has authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields and refineries.

“Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” he wrote at around 6 p.m. on Sept. 15.

He added that the amount would be “sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied.”

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(edited)

Meanwhile the pulse of the nation CNN is talking about GOP Rivals and fabricating Trumps sound bites. 

CNN-SUCKS

5B7F8C7E-208C-4D82-BEB0-3F5304959E00.jpeg

Edited by James Regan
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1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Oh crap, looks like this is going to escalate.  Bad move by Trump, in my opinion.

Trump Authorizes Release of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve After Saudi Attacks

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday evening that he has authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields and refineries.

“Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” he wrote at around 6 p.m. on Sept. 15.

He added that the amount would be “sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied.”

Trump is worried about 100 million oil consumers, not 500k producers and their employees

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2 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

he has authorized the release of oil

Yep, we are waiting for you or Jan to give us the protocol

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2 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Oh crap, looks like this is going to escalate.  Bad move by Trump, in my opinion.

Trump Authorizes Release of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve After Saudi Attacks

However, I do agree with Trump on this bit:

“I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States,” the president tweeted.

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57 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

OK, so a cruise missile plows into a 9/16" steel plate, that should detonate it.  Are those not contact warheads?  If so, it blows a nice hole in the plate, but the facility has not a scratch.  You may need to keep a supply of spare plates around, though.  Irony:   the steel plate is sourced from scrapped oil tankers!

Better yet - they don’t have waste millions tones of steel to build THE WALL around border (may be difficult on sea side) - they can build literally an IRON DOME - sphere around critical infrastructure. It may be painter blue inside:) or they can go next step and make it like one in the Hunger Games! 

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14 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

However, I do agree with Trump on this bit:

“I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States,” the president tweeted.

I also agree let’s suck the hell out of the shale plays and peak oil will come fairly quick and we can get back to business as normal.

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2 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I also agree let’s suck the hell out of the shale plays and peak oil will come fairly quick and we can get back to business as normal.

I never argue against increasing oil & gas pipeline infrastructure, anywhere in the world.

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1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Market has certainly reacted , how far will this go?

BCA98E0E-327F-4B54-B521-F57F63B0D7D9.jpeg

I don't care.  I just hope there's some left for me.  

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(edited)

This. THIS is the reason why I don't like holding positions overnight, especially over the weekend.  

It's always better to trade immediately after something's happened then to bet whether something will happen or not.  

Edited by Zhong Lu
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(edited)

25 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

This. THIS is the reason why I don't like holding positions overnight, especially over the weekend.  

It's always better to trade immediately after something's happened then to bet whether something will happen or not.  

Probably still meat on the bone once London starts trading and by then KSA will have stoked the fire.

BHGE worth a punt!!

Edited by James Regan
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(edited)

10 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Jan... you're up

Sorry for being late here, I was taking a well-deserved nap.   

OK, so the Protocol is for Congress to meet and do the authorizing.  However, since Congress does nothing these days, Mr. Trump will usurp the Congressional role, do it by Executive Order, which is an abuse of the privileges of Executive Order but he will do it anyway, and the oil will be immediately released.  

Remember that that oil is being held in reserve for the Navy, that was how it came into being, so that there would always be a large oil supply ready to go if the Navy needed fuel to go to war.  the first time the oil was siphoned off for private gain was in the so-called "Teapot Dome Scandal,"  that goes way back in US history, so you can look it up and enjoy that tidbit.  After that, the strategic oil reserve has morphed into some sort of national stabilization scheme, which was not its original intent, and thus is subject to all kinds of abuse.   

Trump will do whatever he wants to do, and protocol be damned.  So if he says "I am releasing X tons oil to the market because I feel like it," then that is the way it is. I don't picture the Congress even bothering to meet to debate the issue. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
typing error
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(edited)

Cheers Jan. Now we all know. I should have just guessed these bits though haha. 

23 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

which is an abuse of the privileges of Executive Order but he will do it anyway,

23 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Trump will do whatever he wants to do, and protocol be damned

 

Edited by DayTrader
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(edited)

@James Regan , what were we thinking?

image.png.91b79e8c9137373a9bf34be3da08f952.png

Edited by DayTrader
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5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Part of my family in Russia will now get a relief- end of austerity policy. Russia can now plan a higher breakeven price in budget not 40 $. So I hope my grandmother will get her pension index up a little so we wont have to send her money. 

World oil producers and frackers can increase oil production thanks to brave Houthi.

I hope it is sarcasm--- re "brave Houthi" !!!!!!

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37 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Sorry for being late here, I was taking a well-deserved nap.   

OK, so the Protocol is for Congress to meet and do the authorizing.  However, since Congress does nothing these days, Mr. Trump will usurp the Congressional role, do it by Executive Order, which is an abuse of the privileges of Executive Order but he will do it anyway, and the oil will be immediately released.  

Remember that that oil is being held in reserve for the Navy, that was how it came into being, so that there would always be a large oil supply ready to go if the Navy needed fuel to go to war.  the first time the oil was siphoned off for private gain was in the so-called "Teapot Doe Scandal,"  that goes way back in US history, so you can look it up and enjoy that tidbit.  After that, the strategic oil reserve has morphed into some sort of national stabilization scheme, which was not its original intent, and thus is subject to all kinds of abuse.   

Trump will do whatever he wants to do, and protocol be damned.  So if he says "I am releasing X tons oil to the market because I feel like it," then that is the way it is. I don't picture the Congress even bothering to meet to debate the issue. 

Jan, I have nothing against you, but come on. please atleast on this side of the hemisphere and in NA, please dont use tons while referring to oil, we use barrels LOL , the Putinator will have tons of orgasms if we started using tons for oil LOL hahaha

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4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Oh crap, looks like this is going to escalate.  Bad move by Trump, in my opinion.

Trump Authorizes Release of Oil From US Strategic Petroleum Reserve After Saudi Attacks

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday evening that he has authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields and refineries.

“Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” he wrote at around 6 p.m. on Sept. 15.

He added that the amount would be “sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied.”

Us imports lot less foreign oil, domestically we are well supplied with a good blend of heavy , mid grade sour and light ultra light sweet and condensates and The Trumpster can authorize all he wants but how many buyers? If foreign buyers buy then he should also charge a premium to them . Good business .

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3 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Jan, I have nothing against you, but come on. please atleast on this side of the hemisphere and in NA, please dont use tons while referring to oil, we use barrels LOL , the Putinator will have tons of orgasms if we started using tons for oil LOL hahaha

The original measurement of oil for the reserve was specified in tons.  That is because the Navy, back in the days when it ran on oil, loaded fuel and calculated remaining fuel on board in tons.  All that pretty much stopped when the battleships were retired.  A battleship has 16-inch armor belt of steel around most of the ship to defeat torpedoes, and all that weight required lots of oil to move, ergo the "tons" measurement unit.  Sorry to be a stiff-assed pedant.  I shall endeavour to use "barrels" in the future!  (Although I would suspect Trump would also say "tons," he is a tonnage kind of guy!)

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3 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Us imports lot less foreign oil, domestically we are well supplied with a good blend of heavy , mid grade sour and light ultra light sweet and condensates and The Trumpster can authorize all he wants but how many buyers? If foreign buyers buy then he should also charge a premium to them . Good business .

Good point. The past several times the Strategic Reserve was "drained" it was to stabilize prices. I recall a lot of push back when that happened. I'm not convinced @Jan van Eck is right about Congress getting involved. It may be 100% under the purview of the President as CIC. 

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2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The original measurement of oil for the reserve was specified in tons.  That is because the Navy, back in the days when it ran on oil, loaded fuel and calculated remaining fuel on board in tons.  All that pretty much stopped when the battleships were retired.  A battleship has 16-inch armor belt of steel around most of the ship to defeat torpedoes, and all that weight required lots of oil to move, ergo the "tons" measurement unit.  Sorry to be a stiff-assed pedant.  I shall endeavour to use "barrels" in the future!  (Although I would suspect Trump would also say "tons," he is a tonnage kind of guy!)

I know all that, it was well humour LOL

Like we dont ship or sell oil in actual barrels anymore . He would say many many many millions of oils LOL

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13 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

I hope it is sarcasm--- re "brave Houthi" !!!!!!

Nope.

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