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(edited)

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/aramco-could-face-weeks-restoring-full-production-capacity-specter-100-oil-looms                 - Full Article

 

With the Saudis now racing to restore full oil production to normal levels as one Sunday morning headline noted, the industry is bracing for a potential significant delay in production — given rumors the fires at the facilities struck in the early hours of Saturday may not be fully "under control" as the kingdom was quick to assure hours after the raging explosions — which could translate into oil prices being very high for a long time. Industry sources said it could take weeks to return full production levels to normal.

Following what Yemen's Houthis claimed was their own successful targeting of Saudi Arabia's second largest oil field in the Khurais, as well as the sprawling Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq  described by Aramco as "the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world" — the Saudi company acknowledged it was forced to slash its output by half, equal to about 5% of world supply, specifically 5.7 million barrels a day of oil production lost. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia’s stock market fell by 2.3% at Sunday’s open.

smoke%20abqaiq.jpg

Satellite imagery showing the scene at Abqaiq crude processing facility in Buqyaq,Sept. 14, 2019. 

 

What will Monday bring? Upon market opening there's widespread prediction oil will rally by $5 to $10 per barrel, and as we were among the first to notecould eventually hit $100 per barrel — the latter alarming scenario dependent on how slow or fast the facilities can be brought back online. 

As Bloomberg detailed, citing insiders familiar with Aramco operations

Aramco would need weeks to restore full production capacity to a normal level, according to people familiar with the matter. The producer however can restore significant volume of oil production within days, they said. Aramco could consider declaring force majeure on some international shipments if the resumption of full  capacity at Abqaiq takes weeks, they said.

Aramco's president and CEO Amin Nasser announced Sunday, “Work is underway to restore production and a progress update will be provided in around 48 hours.” 

Though the company says alternative plans are in place to temporarily make up for the shortfall, such as tapping Aramco's global storage network, the 5.7 million barrels a day outage is the single worst supply disruption even over and against that brought on by the first Gulf War and the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.

 
Edited by DayTrader

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Wondering if Iran is actually considering going to war, and if so, now would be a great time for Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz to inflict maximum global damage.  A giant middle finger to the world from a cornered rogue state.

 

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(edited)

#lockedandloaded apparently.

Gulp

Edited by DayTrader

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(edited)

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Wondering if Iran is actually considering going to war,

Unlikely.  The criminal govt does not have the support of the people for that, or much of anything else.  While the fanatics in that "Revolutionary Guard" corps might go for it, I would be surprised if the regular army would, and the idea of the regular Navy wanting to be bloodied by the Americans strikes me as preposterous.  The Navy especially is totally professional and they know better.  Getting all your ships "shot out from under your ass," to quote the Captain of the Bismarck when he was shelled by the guns of the Hood, 24 May 1941 in the Denmark Strait, before opening up with a full broadside, and sinking that battle cruiser, is not something that any Iranian Admiral seeks to contemplate.  So, short answer, I doubt the professional army/navy is going to join in.  

Now, those utter total lunatics in that Iranian Revolutionary Guard outfit, whatever they call themselves, that is quite another matter. Those guys are totally nuts.  

P.S.  The actual quote was:  "I am not going to get my ship shot out from under my ass!"    What was happening was that the Task Force Commander, who technically out-ranked the Captain, was repeating Hitler's direct Orders that the Bismarck and Prinz Eugen  (accompanying pocket battleship) were to avoid engaging enemy battleships and only do commerce raiding.  The idea was for the two ships to break out to the South Atlantic and thus disrupt all marine traffic coming around the Cape of Good Hope, as well as the inbound traffic into England from Argentina, mostly grains and meats. That would starve England into surrender.  They were intercepted in the Denmark Strait by the older battleship Hood and two cruisers, who engaged, but the Bismarck did not return fire.  That encouraged the Hood to steam closer and keep firing, provoking the exchange on the bridge of the Bismarck.  Once the Bismarck found the range, her shells blew the Hood in half.  Now the moral of this is not lost on modern Navy men:  don't screw around with an enemy that has more firepower on just one ship than the next six countries next door, because you will get pulverized.  The Iranian admirals understand this.  Contrary to popular opinion, those guys are not stupid. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
typing error; added PS.
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Quds Force, that's what they call themselves, and they are indeed nuts. I sort of hadn't considered them. They are a funny outfit--and not haha funny either--in that they support other forces, like Hezbollah, even the Houthis. 

Come to think of it, they are likely culprits in this thing, as they are said to have skills approaching those of the most elite Mossad. 

Whoever did this wasn't just your average shit-kicker Houthi rebel, that's for sure, as the drones were apparently brought in under the radar. And the hits were said to be precise. This has the Iranian Quds Force written all over it.

 

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(edited)

Weeks, if not months, to get back on track. From article on OilPrice ... 

Saudi Arabia, too, is holding a more reserved position that initially thought, believing now that less than half the capacity at the Abqaiq processing plant can be restored quickly, according to Bloomberg sources that spoke on condition of anonymity. One of the longer lead-time items of the restoration are Abqaiq’s stabilization towers that separates out the dissolved gas from the crude oil—a distillation process that sweetens sour crude, if you will. Just the specialized parts to repair those towers could take months to get.

Edited by DayTrader

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16 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Just the specialized parts to repair those towers could take months to get.

Aramco has literally billions in inventory of specialized parts under a plan called "maintain potential." Mostly to me it seemed like a way to pad purchases so the 10% agent cuts were larger, but the basic idea, backs up for almost everything, is in theory sound.

Some engineered for a single specific site, probably doesn't have backup. But key components in it, probably are stored in a warehouse somewhere. Drive down to Abqaiq and you will pass miles and mile of desert that is full of spare stuff. Sometimes it's stolen, and sold to Aramco again. There was an elaborate RF technology plan, partly so they wouldn't lose the gear, and partly to prevent buying the same thing again and again.

I am still stunned, with the accuracy and targeting involved, they could have done far worse if that was the intent. Odd Iran and the Houthies haven't shown this accuracy before because they have shot at a lot of things before. One problem with living i the Middle East, you start to see completely improbable theories make more sense than the obvious truth, which is a Houthie/Iranian attack with some local assistance. Listening to NPR yesterday, and hearing how ARAMCO has world class leadership reminded how accurate the media is. Not so much the outlets like to us, but rather and how often the media is being played, passing on what they are told to fit a greater narritive. Anyone who has worked at ARAMCO, was that your impression of the leadership? 

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(edited)

Well I have heard Aramco is well run by professionals.  However, I don't think they have those spheroids in stock nor do I think a lot of the stuff that will need to be replaced in the stabilzation towers are OTS items.  This place was built in 1997 and earlier so much of the equipment is old and unique.  That means pulling drawings and hoping you have as-built stuff to get bids on.  I still don't see manufacturers turning the components around in a month.  That's not realistic.  Expect 6 months realistically and three months optimistically.  They gave us the optimistic view at the news conference.

I want to know why the four other flares at the GOSPs are still running today if they got 2mmbbl/day back on line. Wouldn't that relieve some of the pressure and allow those flares to be turned off? 

 

stillflaring917e17W.png

Edited by wrs
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3 hours ago, John Foote said:

I am still stunned, with the accuracy and targeting involved, they could have done far worse if that was the intent.

d46271c872b1bb9f.thumb.jpeg.1f1c6d2ec6fe250fbccba3f46356835d.jpeg

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:00 AM, DayTrader said:

stabilization towers that separates out the dissolved gas from the crude oil—a distillation process that sweetens sour crude, if you will

This doesn’t smell sulphur to me - it smells like someone taking liberty guessing:) 

you’ve mixed three distinct processes (degassing, distillation and desulfurization) into one. 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, DanilKa said:

This doesn’t smell sulphur to me

I DO NOT HAVE A CLUE ADMITTEDLY HOW IT WORKS 

It is a direct quote from an OilPrice.com article, AS i STATED. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Aramcos-Oil-Disruptions-Could-Last-Months-Analyst.html

 

Weeks, if not months, to get back on track. From article on OilPrice ... 

Saudi Arabia, too, is holding a more reserved position that initially thought, believing now that less than half the capacity at the Abqaiq processing plant can be restored quickly, according to Bloomberg sources that spoke on condition of anonymity. One of the longer lead-time items of the restoration are Abqaiq’s stabilization towers that separates out the dissolved gas from the crude oil—a distillation process that sweetens sour crude, if you will. Just the specialized parts to repair those towers could take months to get.

Edited by DayTrader

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2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

It is a direct quote from an OilPrice.com article, AS i STATED. 

Pardon miss attribution. Now I can say that it smells like BS to me:)

OilPrice needs to give “oil business 101” to its oil experts... 

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6 hours ago, DanilKa said:

Now I can say that it smells like BS to me:)

Haha no worries buddy, say what you want.

Literally I have no idea. 

But I can copy and paste like a beast. 

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