Marc J. Rauch

Ethanol, the Perfect Home Remedy for A Saudi Oil Fever

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Yesterday's drone air attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities are threatening to disrupt the status quo of the world's oil markets and push the price of oil back to $100 per barrel, or perhaps higher. Oil prices on Friday were around $54 per barrel, therefore a rise to $100 is basically a doubling of the price. Shortly after the attacks, Robert Rapier wrote a story for Forbes.com titled "Attacks In Saudi Arabia Are A Recipe For $100 Oil." I think Robert could be correct on the prediction.

This is disconcerting news for more than just the obvious end result of driving up the price of gasoline to consumers. A report I read says that the attacks will force of cut of the Saudi production to 50% of it's normal supply. The same report says that Saudi Arabia supplies 5% of the world's oil. If this is true, it means that just 2.5% of the worlds supply is effected (half of 5% is 2.5%, right). Yet, this small 2.5% could lead to a 100% increase in price.

This sure seems overdone. Why would such a small impact have such a huge rippling impact?

The answer is because the oil industry is a highly manipulated monopoly; manipulated by OPEC and by commodity speculators. If the price goes up tonight (Sunday night, for Monday's bidding) as expected, it will all be because of speculators and OPEC, not because of reality. Robert Rapier used the term "fear premium" in his editorial to describe the situation. I think this is a good term to use.

An attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, or Iraq, or Venezuela, or the Russian oil fields should mean nothing to the rest of the world. It should warrant a passing remark on local news broadcasts, like a 10 car pile-up accident on the other side of the globe, but nothing more. And certainly, the incident shouldn't be the cause for any heightened U.S. military action...but you know this won't be the case.

Once again, the world is at the mercy of the oil industry.

And once again, ethanol is the perfect home remedy to the fever caused by this "fear premium."

Ethanol can be produced practically anywhere, from a variety of resources. Fortunately for America, we have a pretty great ethanol industry that's ready to supply the remedy to the fever. Fortunately for the rest of the world, they can have easy safe access to American ethanol if they're not already producing their own ethanol now.

We know that E27 is safe and economical for all internal combustion engine vehicles; Brazil has proven this. We know that E30 can be just as safe and even more economical than E27. Tests conducted over the years have proven this.

One result of the 1973 Oil Crisis was the federal legislation that ordered highways driving speeds restricted to 55 mph. That was a dumb move because what it really restricted was commerce. A great piece of federal legislation right now would be to require all gasoline to contain 30% ethanol. Canada should do the same, all of Europe should do the same, Australia and New Zealand should do the same, the rest of Asia should do the same.

Two things would happen if we moved to E30: America and much of the rest of the world would get out from under the fear caused by foreign oil domination, and the air we breathe would get much cleaner.

Wait, one other thing would happen: the national economies of those countries producing their own domestic ethanol would improve.

It's funny how a little alcohol has been a great remedy for thousands of years.

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N America at present is a net petroleum exporter so no need for more ethanol as long the three countries cooperate. In fact if N America wanted to seal itself off from the rest of the world they could easily do so when it comes to energy. Is ethanol another option? Sure but there are other options as well.

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30 minutes ago, Boat said:

N America at present is a net petroleum exporter so no need for more ethanol as long the three countries cooperate. In fact if N America wanted to seal itself off from the rest of the world they could easily do so when it comes to energy. Is ethanol another option? Sure but there are other options as well.

You'll notice that I refer to Robert Rapier in the editorial I wrote. You may recognize Robert from the oilprice.com website or from other media outlets. Robert is considered an energy expert. I consider Robert to be an energy expert, even though there as some issues that I disagree with him. In any event, not too long ago, Robert published the following story on Oilprice.com: No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/No-The-US-Is-Not-A-Net-Exporter-Of-Crude-Oil.html.

I think if you were to check with Robert that his opinion hasn't changed.

On top of this, whether America is a net exported of oil or not, the better question to ask is, "Do we want to be a net exporter of poison?"

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Give it a rest mate!

I sincerely hope that the ethanol lobby is paying you well to post this drivel...

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#ignoreuser

then you just see the gold

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''Drivel'' said it all. 

Trollville : population 1

 

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23 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

''Drivel'' said it all. 

Trollville : population 1

 

I fear that there is more than one...the rest just didn’t reply to the census.

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10 hours ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

 

PHOTO

 

 

Yesterday's drone air attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities are threatening to disrupt the status quo of the world's oil markets and push the price of oil back to $100 per barrel, or perhaps higher. Oil prices on Friday were around $54 per barrel, therefore a rise to $100 is basically a doubling of the price. Shortly after the attacks, Robert Rapier wrote a story for Forbes.com titled "Attacks In Saudi Arabia Are A Recipe For $100 Oil." I think Robert could be correct on the prediction.

This is disconcerting news for more than just the obvious end result of driving up the price of gasoline to consumers. A report I read says that the attacks will force of cut of the Saudi production to 50% of it's normal supply. The same report says that Saudi Arabia supplies 5% of the world's oil. If this is true, it means that just 2.5% of the worlds supply is effected (half of 5% is 2.5%, right). Yet, this small 2.5% could lead to a 100% increase in price.

This sure seems overdone. Why would such a small impact have such a huge rippling impact?

The answer is because the oil industry is a highly manipulated monopoly; manipulated by OPEC and by commodity speculators. If the price goes up tonight (Sunday night, for Monday's bidding) as expected, it will all be because of speculators and OPEC, not because of reality. Robert Rapier used the term "fear premium" in his editorial to describe the situation. I think this is a good term to use.

An attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, or Iraq, or Venezuela, or the Russian oil fields should mean nothing to the rest of the world. It should warrant a passing remark on local news broadcasts, like a 10 car pile-up accident on the other side of the globe, but nothing more. And certainly, the incident shouldn't be the cause for any heightened U.S. military action...but you know this won't be the case.

Once again, the world is at the mercy of the oil industry.

And once again, ethanol is the perfect home remedy to the fever caused by this "fear premium."

Ethanol can be produced practically anywhere, from a variety of resources. Fortunately for America, we have a pretty great ethanol industry that's ready to supply the remedy to the fever. Fortunately for the rest of the world, they can have easy safe access to American ethanol if they're not already producing their own ethanol now.

We know that E27 is safe and economical for all internal combustion engine vehicles; Brazil has proven this. We know that E30 can be just as safe and even more economical than E27. Tests conducted over the years have proven this.

One result of the 1973 Oil Crisis was the federal legislation that ordered highways driving speeds restricted to 55 mph. That was a dumb move because what it really restricted was commerce. A great piece of federal legislation right now would be to require all gasoline to contain 30% ethanol. Canada should do the same, all of Europe should do the same, Australia and New Zealand should do the same, the rest of Asia should do the same.

Two things would happen if we moved to E30: America and much of the rest of the world would get out from under the fear caused by foreign oil domination, and the air we breathe would get much cleaner.

Wait, one other thing would happen: the national economies of those countries producing their own domestic ethanol would improve.

It's funny how a little alcohol has been a great remedy for thousands of years.

I can the security benefit here of having your resources fairly diffuse unlike say Abqaiq which processes several percent of the worlds oil supply within 4-5km2

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17 minutes ago, NickW said:

I can the security benefit here of having your resources fairly diffuse unlike say Abqaiq which processes several percent of the worlds oil supply within 4-5km2

Your comment isn't clear to me.

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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

''Drivel'' said it all. 

Trollville : population 1

 

 

39 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I fear that there is more than one...the rest just didn’t reply to the census.

Gents, I know you are joking around, but please let Marc speak in peace, this is his thread.  You are free to ignore this thread if you wish. 

Pretty sure Marc is already aware that his dislike of the oil industry will probably not be well received on a pro-oil forum.

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The world market was over supplied with oil before this ‘drone’ strike. I fail to see oil going to $100/bbl and the world being at the mercy of those nefarious oil companies.

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3 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

Gents, I know you are joking around, but please let Marc speak in peace, this is his thread.  You are free to ignore this thread if you wish. 

Pretty sure Marc is already aware that his dislike of the oil industry will probably not be well received on a pro-oil forum.

Noted.....

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6 minutes ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

Your comment isn't clear to me.

Growing sugar cane / corn etc is diffuse and processing is usually in relatively small refineries which reduces its vulnerability to attacks of strategic importance - like the attack on Abqaiq. 

In short its one area I can see benefit from biofuels. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Give it a rest mate!

I sincerely hope that the ethanol lobby is paying you well to post this drivel...

I co-own the Internet's oldest and largest automotive information website. I produce and publish content related to the automotive and transportation industries. Included in this is lifestyle information that is relative to these industries. We don't get paid to publish content about General Motors or Ford or BMW or any specific fuel or car wax. You say what I write is drivel and you made other similar comments, yet you are unable to post anything that contradicts what I've written. The drivel comes from your keyboard, not mine.

Edited by Marc J. Rauch
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I dont like the smell of ethanol (for fuel) in the morning

but I love the smell of crude LOL

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14 hours ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

You'll notice that I refer to Robert Rapier in the editorial I wrote. You may recognize Robert from the oilprice.com website or from other media outlets. Robert is considered an energy expert. I consider Robert to be an energy expert, even though there as some issues that I disagree with him. In any event, not too long ago, Robert published the following story on Oilprice.com: No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/No-The-US-Is-Not-A-Net-Exporter-Of-Crude-Oil.html.

I think if you were to check with Robert that his opinion hasn't changed.

On top of this, whether America is a net exported of oil or not, the better question to ask is, "Do we want to be a net exporter of poison?"

I don’t pay much attention to the media talking heads when it comes to energy. The media in general has a credibility problem.I took on a quest to learn about oil around 2008 when Republicans were gathered in Washigton yelling drill baby drill. I follow all types of energy now and rely on data to form my own opinions. Raperier may be a fine fellow but unless he posts here odds are I won’t see them. The EIA puts out several reports every month that serve me well.

if you want to inform me, show me links that show ethonal not harming small engines and car engines when mixed over 15%. I haven’t looked up this issue for a couple years. Have refiners solved this problem or are you suggesting new engines for cars.

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16 hours ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude oil

Crude oil. Not including REFINED oil! Add them together and we export MORE than Saudi Arabia (9 million bbls per day). Exporting low value crude is dumb, when we can export high value refined products. 

Now let's talk about all the ethanol companies going broke and losing money. 

Let's talk about how ethanol can't be shipped in ANY pipeline and needs to be (inefficiently) trucked instead. 

Let's talk about how vehicles need to be modified to accept anything more than 10% ethanol. 

Let's talk about no flex fuel filling stations near… anyone. 

Let's talk about airplanes not being able to use ANY ethanol fuel. 

Shall I continue? 

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1 hour ago, Boat said:

I don’t pay much attention to the media talking heads when it comes to energy. The media in general has a credibility problem.I took on a quest to learn about oil around 2008 when Republicans were gathered in Washigton yelling drill baby drill. I follow all types of energy now and rely on data to form my own opinions. Raperier may be a fine fellow but unless he posts here odds are I won’t see them. The EIA puts out several reports every month that serve me well.

if you want to inform me, show me links that show ethonal not harming small engines and car engines when mixed over 15%. I haven’t looked up this issue for a couple years. Have refiners solved this problem or are you suggesting new engines for cars.

It seems that you don't pay attention to very much. You write about Robert Rapier, "Raperier may be a fine fellow but unless he posts here odds are I won’t see them." Obviously you didn't really read what I previously posted, you thought you could just post some stupid comment and you'd get away with it. Robert Rapier does post on Oilprice.com, and the link I provided specifically went to one of his editorials.

Ethanol is compatible with more types of rubbers, plastics, and metals than gasoline and aromatics. Therefore, ethanol is LESS corrosive than gasoline and aromatics. You will find thin in my book, which can be read online for free at https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2018/10/12/632678-ethanol-papers-massive-book-provides-whole-story-ethanol-fuel-free.html .

You can then read these two editorials that prove ethanol is less corrosive than gasoline and aromatics, or any other substance used in place of ethanol:

Famous Manufacturer of Anti-Ethanol Additives Proves Ethanol's Safety and Benefits - https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2019/08/10/677743-is-it-is-or-is-it-ain-t-famous-manufacturer.html

Automotive Aftermarket Saturated with Snake Oil Engine Additives - https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2019/08/16/680489-automotive-aftermarket-saturated-with-snake-oil-engine-additives.html

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5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Crude oil. Not including REFINED oil! Add them together and we export MORE than Saudi Arabia (9 million bbls per day). Exporting low value crude is dumb, when we can export high value refined products. 

Now let's talk about all the ethanol companies going broke and losing money. 

Let's talk about how ethanol can't be shipped in ANY pipeline and needs to be (inefficiently) trucked instead. 

Let's talk about how vehicles need to be modified to accept anything more than 10% ethanol. 

Let's talk about no flex fuel filling stations near… anyone. 

Let's talk about airplanes not being able to use ANY ethanol fuel. 

Shall I continue? 

Yes, you can continue post incorrect information all you want, it doesn't make any of what you post correct.

For correct information you can go to my 641-page book, THE ETHANOL PAPERS. It's available to read online for free at https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2018/10/12/632678-ethanol-papers-massive-book-provides-whole-story-ethanol-fuel-free.html.

But for sport, I'll reply to a couple of your inane points right here:

Why worry about ethanol companies going broke, when so many oil companies are going broke:

Why would ethanol be shipped via pipeline, the ethanol industry doesn't use the oil industry business model. It best uses the Dairy Industry to produce locally and distribute to local blenders. In any event, who told you that ethanol can't be transported by pipeline? They do it in Florida, and it's done in Brazil. If you stupidly mean that ethanol can't be sent in the same pipelines that transport oil, so what?

All spark-ignited internal combustion engines can use ethanol-gasoline blends with no modifications. I've proven this myself in hundreds of vehicles. Other studies going back more than a century have proven this.

Propeller airplanes can, and do use ethanol and ethanol-gasoline blends. There's a company called Embraer that makes ethanol-powered airplanes. Also, see this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ierFrs5FkAU

Ward Smith, you may be the least knowledgeable ethanol-hater on the entire oilprice.com website. Congratulations.

 

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23 minutes ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

But for sport, I'll reply to a couple of your inane points right here:

 

24 minutes ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

If you stupidly mean that ethanol can't be sent in the same pipelines that transport oil, so what?

 

24 minutes ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

Ward Smith, you may be the least knowledgeable ethanol-hater on the entire oilprice.com website. Congratulations

Look, Marc,  Tom Kirkman made the point that this is "your thread" and that the posters should be nice to you,  but I really don't see you taking the high road in your correspondence.   I do not need to speak for Ward Smith, he is an accomplished adult and can do his own, but I shall do so nonetheless.  Your responses are somewhere between brutish and rude, and you assuredly do not make yourself any friends with that tonality.  "Inane"?  "Stupidly"?  "Hater"?  Come on now, is that adult?  

This is an oil and gas forum.  The Moderators are nice enough to allow you an audience for your discussions of the merits of alcohol.  Abusing oil industry veterans with bile and diatribe is really inappropriate.  High time to clean it up. 

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21 minutes ago, Marc J. Rauch said:

Yes, you can continue post incorrect information all you want, it doesn't make any of what you post correct.

For correct information you can go to my 641-page book, THE ETHANOL PAPERS. It's available to read online for free at https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2018/10/12/632678-ethanol-papers-massive-book-provides-whole-story-ethanol-fuel-free.html.

But for sport, I'll reply to a couple of your inane points right here:

Why worry about ethanol companies going broke, when so many oil companies are going broke:

Why would ethanol be shipped via pipeline, the ethanol industry doesn't use the oil industry business model. It best uses the Dairy Industry to produce locally and distribute to local blenders. In any event, who told you that ethanol can't be transported by pipeline? They do it in Florida, and it's done in Brazil. If you stupidly mean that ethanol can't be sent in the same pipelines that transport oil, so what?

All spark-ignited internal combustion engines can use ethanol-gasoline blends with no modifications. I've proven this myself in hundreds of vehicles. Other studies going back more than a century have proven this.

Propeller airplanes can, and do use ethanol and ethanol-gasoline blends. There's a company called Embraer that makes ethanol-powered airplanes. Also, see this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ierFrs5FkAU

Ward Smith, you may be the least knowledgeable ethanol-hater on the entire oilprice.com website. Congratulations.

 

Deflect deflect deflect. Sounds like a politician or a snake oil salesman. Take your pick. 

Oil companies go broke, but they're not handed MASSIVE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES AND MANDATES! Going broke with all that free cash and largesse takes real (non) talent. 

"You" have proven? Well that just about puts it to bed doesn't it? Please explain oh wise one, why auto companies market flex fuel vehicles? Why they warn AGAINST running high ethanol content fuel? Hint, it doesn't have one thing to do with spark plugs, but EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE ENGINE INCLUDING COMPUTERS, TIMING AND COMPONENTS. But yeah, I'm sure a self appointed "expert" like you understands what a deteriorated fuel hose can do to a hot engine. 

I'm not flying an airplane running ethanol. I like to know when my bingo fuel hits, not have to constantly adjust for the 60% losses. Publicity stunts don't count. I fly from someplace TO someplace, not take off and land in front of cameras pretending I've accomplished something. 

I don't hate ethanol, in fact I plan to drink some tonight. I'm just against BS peddlers. 

 

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(edited)

On 9/16/2019 at 10:53 PM, Ward Smith said:

I'm just against BS peddlers. 

DING

On 9/16/2019 at 10:51 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Your responses are somewhere between brutish and rude,

Agreed. The reason I replied how I did (which I've apologised to mods for) , was because I was rather sick of the patronising replies and attacks on everyone. It is rather pointless to talk with someone who, when confronted with a differing opinion, or FACTS that they don't like, simply replies with pretentious abuse. Hence I've blocked this clown. 

Edited by DayTrader
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(edited)

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

 

Look, Marc,  Tom Kirkman made the point that this is "your thread" and that the posters should be nice to you,  but I really don't see you taking the high road in your correspondence.   I do not need to speak for Ward Smith, he is an accomplished adult and can do his own, but I shall do so nonetheless.  Your responses are somewhere between brutish and rude, and you assuredly do not make yourself any friends with that tonality.  "Inane"?  "Stupidly"?  "Hater"?  Come on now, is that adult?  

This is an oil and gas forum.  The Moderators are nice enough to allow you an audience for your discussions of the merits of alcohol.  Abusing oil industry veterans with bile and diatribe is really inappropriate.  High time to clean it up. 

Jan - The story that I posted had to do with oil, not just ethanol. And I don't see anything nice about someone posting lies, even if they dress it in sugary words. I respond the way that people act to me. Ward Smith posted lie after lie, and he did it in a challenging way. If he would have simply written questions about the points he had heard I would have responded in the same way. And if he's such an accomplished adult then he should stick to what he is accomplished in.

By the way, I was asked by the administrators of this site to post stories. I didn't happen along. At any time that they wish they can restrict my access or delete my replies. But doing so doesn't make me incorrect, and it doesn't make stupid lies into insightful facts.

Edited by Marc J. Rauch

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