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USA : Attack came from 'Iranian soil'. Pompeo to release 'evidence'.

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(edited)

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden by Tyler DurdenMon, 09/16/2019 - 08:30

- Despite US officials repeatedly over the weekend claiming they were "certain" attacks came from Iraqi soil, likely from Iran-backed militias acting as proxies, they've now changed their tune to line up behind the latest Saudi military assessment. US officials have told FOX that the attacks originated from Iranian soil, which is the first time such a direct charge has been issued since the early Saturday morning crisis.
- Meanwhile in this rapidly changing who dunnit narrative, one key piece of recent history should not be forgotten after the Saudis announced Monday their belief that "Iranian weapons" were behind the attack, based on an initial investigation:
- However, the coming hours will be interesting given a Saudi coalition spokesman said photos will soon be released proving the US-Saudi position which points the finger at Iran. Mike Pompeo is also said to be prepping a report which gives a US assessment of the evidence. 
 
- And still awkwardly amid all these claims and counterclaims (after both Iran and Iraq have vehemently denied having any involvement), Yemen's Houthis have consistently and firmly admitted responsibility with no change in their original narrative. 
- UpdateIt's official — after Trump over the weekend put the ball squarely in the Saudis' court, saying the US was "waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!" — Saudi Arabia has responded by saying it was indeed Iran, confirming that "Iranian weapons" were used to attack its oil facilities. 
- After the US apparently ruled out Iraq as a launching pad on Monday, following Baghdad's firm denial, it looks like Riyadh appears to be pointing to a potential direct cruise missile or drone attack from Iran. An official military statement pointed to "Iranian weapons" but stopped short of naming the Islamic Republic as directly conducting the attack.
 
- Saudi military spokesman Turki al-maliki futher said the preliminary investation suggests the attack "was not launched from Yemen," backing prior US statement. As expected, things are escalating fast and the ball is back in Trump's court - he could be preparing to this time follow up on prior threats of being "locked and loaded". 
- While US officials were quick out of the gate to allege an Iranian attack on Saudi Aramco facilities launched from Iraq early Saturday, a theory which the WSJ said was focus of an ongoing US-Saudi investigation, Iraq's government issued a firm denial on Sunday, which followed Iran's own denial that condemned Washington's "maximum lies". 
- Saying there was no link to Iraqi soil and the attack which caused oil prices to spike to record levels the moment markets opened, initially surging to as much as 18% before retreating after President Trump authorized use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to "keep the markets well-supplied," the Iraqi government further vowed to “punish anyone who intended to use Iraq as a launchpad for attacks in the region.”

This @WSJ map shows how "#Houthi" drone capabilities have increased with the support of #Iran - these drones can loiter but are not designed to return to base but can be controlled over long distances #Saudi #KSA via @andreas_krieg

View image on Twitter5
 
“We assure the Saudi regime that our long hand can reach wherever we want, and whenever we want,” Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said. The statement added threateningly: 
“We warn companies and foreigners not to be present in the facilities that were hit in the strikes because they are still within range and may be targeted at any moment.”

Meanwhile, the official US position still seems to be Mike Pompeo's sentiment expressed soon after the attack that there was "no evidence" it was carried out from Yemen. 

 

US and Saudi officials, still amid an ongoing investigation, told reporters over the weekend they are "certain" the attack actually originated from Iraq, especially as the debris and precision targeting show a level of "sophistication" which would link it to Iran's elite IRGC.

This as Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” of the source of the attack.

Of course there remains the possibility that the Houthis will again "prove" their capabilities by simply launching another devastating attack. 

 
Edited by DayTrader
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Th Houthis would need to launch a similar type of weapon on a similar drone to prove the point, if they launch a Qasef-1 then it will be a nap that that it was indeed an Iranian soil fired weapon.

This is going to be an interesting few days, we thought the capture of the Stenna Tanker was going to push us over the cliff, this is another ball game indeed.

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4 hours ago, James Regan said:

This is going to be an interesting few days

Tell me about it, be nice to have some concrete news though. This flatline in oil price while we filter this rumour mill is ridiculous. 

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(edited)

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo swiftly accused Iran of being behind the assault, without providing any evidence. The claim was rejected by Tehran which said the allegations were meant to justify actions against it.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has promised to "confront and deal with this terrorist aggression", while US President Donald Trump hinted at possible military action after Riyadh concluded its investigation into the attacks.

Trump said it's "looking like" Iran was responsible for the attacks on key oil installations in Saudi Arabia, but he said he doesn't want war.

Still, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the US "is prepared" if the attacks warrant a response.

Russia is ready to help Saudi Arabia following attacks on the Saudi oil industry if needed, Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with leaders of Turkey and Iran in Ankara, and proposed Russian weapons for purchase.

The new US ambassador to the United Nations has called the "deeply troubling" attacks on key Saudi oil installations "a direct assault on the world energy supply".

Kelly Craft told a UN Security Council meeting on Yemen that "the United States condemns these attacks in the strongest possible terms, standing firmly with our Saudi friends".

Yemen's vice president condemned attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and said they revealed Iran's "destructive role in the region" and its use of Yemen to stage operations.

China has expressed concern over the weekend attacks on key Saudi oil sites, while noting reports that the US blamed Iran for the strikes.

India has condemned the attack on key Saudi oil installations over the weekend as an "act of terrorism".

Israel*** is prepared for the possibility it might be drawn into any US-Iranian confrontation over strikes on two Saudi oil plants.

 The attacks on Saudi oil facilities are a "game changer" in US-Iran relations, The US cannot allow this incident to set a precedent, where more incidents like this happen in the future.

As far as the US is concerned, the responsibility lies with Tehran, and they are going to have to do something - whether its war or serious diplomacy Lets see....

The technology Iran processes is obviously high end, remember the US Drone they shot down at, 28,000ft over the Straights of Hormuz, IMO too many proxies are supporting the case against Iran, this may be favourable for Iran as most of them are involved with Iran in some shape or form, this may prevent an all out assault. I think if the Houthis really did it then they would have no problem doing it again, Iran on the other hand now know they are one more event away from an all out assault on the IRG, and some very strategic targeting of Theran University Mosque on Friday.

As for Saudi its all about saving face, how can they not retaliate in some form after being made look like fools, if they thought for a minute it has come from Yemen then we would already be seeing the destruction. 

A war between Iran and KSA is very unlikely, it would disrupt the whole region. The USA may be happy to let loose some old ordinance in soft targets to show that they are prepared to act, but that would be an act of war and Iran and its proxies would be in a strong position politically if they did not retaliate, then China and Russia would get involved as peace makers and the next phase of Xis Digital Silk Road would be laid.

***And Israel would disappear off the map. of that I have no doubts.

I think the uncertainty will keep the price of OIL fluctuating high for the next few days until someone acts, the US can't produce enough to take up the lag. I dont trade Oil obviously, I have done but couldn't get my head around it, Gold was easier for me so I stuck with it.

Edited by James Regan
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2 hours ago, James Regan said:

I dont trade Oil obviously, I have done but couldn't get my head around it, Gold was easier for me so I stuck with it.

If you could just do like a daily world report like that for me everyday when I wake that would be great James. 

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We need to get it through our heads that we never have had, and never will have, access to ANY of the raw data or satellite intelligence, which indicates where this attack originated and so forth. NOBODY is going to show ANYTHING that relates to their intelligence gathering capabilities. To think otherwise is childish.

That said, trying to figure out this mess based on information provided by the mainstream media is an exercise in futility.

Finally, whatever retaliation is planned, it will not target the Iranian oil infrastructure due to reasons given above. Taking out the Iranian naval bases on the Straits of Hormuz would send an equivalent message IF, IN FACT, IRAN IS RESPONSIBLE!

It is more likely that any retaliation will be ‘Saudi led’, and will target those responsible for the ‘command & control’ of the attack - wherever that happens to be.

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(edited)

Doug you're wrong!  Look at the thread title !!!

It came from Iranian soil and Pompeo will show us all the evidence!  Quite possibly with their workings and intelligence capabilities.      

 

 

 *lol just kidding 

Edited by DayTrader

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(edited)

6 hours ago, James Regan said:

I think the uncertainty will keep the price of OIL fluctuating high for the next few days until someone acts, the US can't produce enough to take up the lag. I dont trade Oil obviously, I have done but couldn't get my head around it, Gold was easier for me so I stuck with it.

Pompeo has proof then let's see it.  

The Americans have still not shown any satellite pictures of damage at Abqaiq. Where is the damage.  The fire was outside the complex. Most likely staged. 

The picture of damage at Khurais was just some scorched dirt next to some process infrastructure. Hardly damning. 

Your President  will get U.S. involved in Saudi war.  Why ?

Edited by Jabbar

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11 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

We need to get it through our heads that we never have had, and never will have, access to ANY of the raw data or satellite intelligence, which indicates where this attack originated and so forth. NOBODY is going to show ANYTHING that relates to their intelligence gathering capabilities. To think otherwise is childish.

That said, trying to figure out this mess based on information provided by the mainstream media is an exercise in futility.

Finally, whatever retaliation is planned, it will not target the Iranian oil infrastructure due to reasons given above. Taking out the Iranian naval bases on the Straits of Hormuz would send an equivalent message IF, IN FACT, IRAN IS RESPONSIBLE!

It is more likely that any retaliation will be ‘Saudi led’, and will target those responsible for the ‘command & control’ of the attack - wherever that happens to be.

You're right. Remember that both Bahrain and UAE are close allies of the KSA, tied together through the House of Saud. It may well be no coincidence that Bahrain announced today that they are buying a Patriot missile battery from Raytheon. Bahrain! An archipelago with a population of about one million. The United Arab Emirates has the most advanced air defense system in the Arabian Peninsula: several of the latest Patriot systems, as well as the high-altitude THAAD system, which is capable of intercepting intercontinental missiles. As such, UAE has long been held to be a protector of Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia--if perchance KSA needs help. Well, that time has come. Embarrassingly for KSA, it looks as if everyone was looking high in the sky while cheap drones were actually coming in low over the desert floor, flying under the radar. This appears to be a game-changer in so many ways. There is almost zero chance that by now the culprit hasn't been nailed down by the United States. That information has likely been shared with the KSA, as well as Bahrain and UAE. There is also almost zero chance that there will not be retaliation in some form, likely performed not by Fredo but his strong cousin, UAE. It can't be long in coming either, because every hour without retaliation is an hour of vulnerability somewhere else--like a pipeline standpipe. So I believe we can expect a very sophisticated missile attack against someone within a few days. It makes sense that it will be performed by a much smarter and powerful drone, likely flying low over the Persian Gulf. What's the alternative? To just pretend this didn't happen? So, Day Trader and others that trade oil, if I were you I'd be getting those world reports at frequent intervals. Going only slightly out on the limb, I think we'll see $100 oil by this time next week. 

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@Jabbar  , please just quote a selection rather than someone's whole post buddy.

It would be much appreciated. 

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(edited)

15 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

So, Day Trader and others that trade oil, if I were you I'd be getting those world reports at frequent intervals. Going only slightly out on the limb, I think we'll see $100 oil by this time next week. 

Hope so buddy, but as I say you gotta filter through the rumour mill and BS first. I watch Bloomberg all day, everyday. Was just joking about James' reply, but it was quite a handy little snapshot   :)   

And yes, I agree. If these things are as simple and cheap as they appear to be and operate, this ain't a one off. 

Edited by DayTrader

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4 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

Pompeo has proof then let's see it.  

The Americans have still not shown any satellite pictures of damage at Abqaiq. Where is the damage.  The fire was outside the complex. Most likely staged. 

The picture of damage at Khurais was just some scorged first next to some process infrastructure. Hardly damning. 

Your President  will get U.S. involved in Saudi war.  Why ?

Why is it the Responsibility of the US to present damage to a facility in another country?

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(edited)

Doug have you learnt nothing from these threads? People want USA help so they can moan decades later about your interference. Duh. 

It should clearly be the USA that is the first to show pictures from somewhere halfway round the planet. Is this not obvious?

Edited by DayTrader
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