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Experts review drone damage . Say Saudis need to do a lot of explaining.

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Does anyone know exclusion zone radius around Abqaiq facility? Is it larger than RPG/antitank weaponry range? Wondering if the hit was much closer to home but Saudi to embarrassed to admit or using to point finger to the usual suspect. 

Cannot be Houthi - their spokesperson mention 10 drones but there were 25 total

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(edited)

47 minutes ago, DanilKa said:

I’m fracer, not a rocket scientist:) 

Are you saying presented wreckage doesn’t have range they say it does? 

My guess it was fired from the Empty Quarter to the West while radars were looking east and north. Quite an excursion if they did that

Range is entirely due to payload/wing/engine.... Can't see the wings or know what payload is otherwise I could fairly accurately give you range.  The range they state is doable with fairly simple off the shelf tech and a little elbow grease. 

EDIT: My old lifter RC airplane; if I change payload for extra fuel + explosive and then add a ~50g auto pilot would have a range of roughly 250miles(400km) and that was with an inefficient wing for cruise as it was made for a VERY short runway and HIGH Lift at LOW speed.  If I switched out the wing I could easily throw together an RC autopiloted airplane that would fly ~400 miles with a 10kg explosive.  Put a little more elbow grease into it with a larger engine/wing and I see no reason to not be able to deliver 100kg of explosive with nothing more than plywood veneer as a working substance and wood glue any distance you want around the world with a larger RC engine or maybe 2 of them sold by Tower Hobbies even before we start talking Jet engines with more thrust but thirstier bills.  Well anything over 1000nmi gets to be a bit of a problem requiring superior materials.  This thing is not required to take large G forces after all.  It would be little different than any of the early gliders.  With modern materials like CF and Kevlar and an off the shelf autopilot?  I could build a plane/drone/missile easily able to go 2000nmi without batting an eye. 

What this actually says is that the RADAR network by the Saudis combined with their C&C loop is well.... PISS POOR as all of these vehicles should be seen on RADAR without a problem.  True, fly low helps, and this is the desert, but surely there are hills???  Or maybe the attackers picked an avenue where they could fly everything through valley's? or flat ground? 

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com
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19 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

True, fly low helps, and this is the desert, but surely there are hills??? 

There are sand dunes which are high but not huge. Otherwise flat. 

I wouldn’t advise talent...

from looks if it on photo - it wasn’t hobby farm build crafts

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On 9/17/2019 at 11:32 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

So what are you suggesting? Are you saying that the Saudis blew up their own facility in sone ‘false flag’ conspiracy?

Yes I fully agree,the attacks were locally arranged(by the MBS govt) with small guns mounted on helicopters.The storage containers/stabalising columns were emptied before the attacks & the fire was stage managed from a distance from the facilities.The black-soot was later sprinkled on the apparatus.Suppose,if there was crude inside the attacked containers & no fire were ignited by the attack,the spilled crude oil whould had left a visible footprint near the punctured holes.

The MBS govt has been used to such foolish acts earlier too (cf murder of the NYT correspondant & the RITZ hotel episode of the arab shiekhs).

 

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People are skeptical because the U.S. government was just caught doing a false flag in June. An oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. said Iranians damaged the tanker using limpet mines. They Provided a low resolution video to back up their accusations. Yahoo news provided statement from the ship's Japanese owner that the ship was not damaged by a limpet mine, rather it was flying projectiles (probably bullets). They were clearly trying to frame Iran.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/japanese-tanker-owner-trump-administration-195513013.html

 

 

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(edited)

Article in Guardian about Saudis never fight their own wars .

What does U.S. get out of it ?  Possibly thepromise from MBS to get the Sunni Arabs to buy $ peace between Palestinians and Israel.  His son-in-Law Jared's plan was DOA. Is that worth it to you ?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/22/saudi-arabia-iran-us-middle-east-saudis

"The US is being fooled that it needs to rescue its ally in the Middle East. The Saudis always get others to fight for them"
 
"Saudi does not “go to war”: it hires proxies, and depends on US gullibility to continue the lie that it is the regional peacekeeper, and that any threat to the country destabilises the region. "
 
The Brits at the Guardian Newspaper have figured it out.
Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

The Brent contract price for November deliveries settlement date this Friday. 

My opinion the Saudi rhetoric rises. The war drumbeat gets louder all week up till settlement.  

Saudis will say going to take longer to get parts.  They don't even use the Spherical HS2 gas separation chambers anymore.  They are at least 60 years old. Very slow and uneconomical. Loose 10% of crude. Much less expensive methods today to strip HS2 from crude today.  

Several sources have confirmed the missiles struck targets from West including WallStreet Journal article out Friday.   I know doesn't mean came from West but increases the probability. 

Brent probably hit 70 US dollars by Friday. Saudis will try keep it up to get internal 20 Billion dollar IPO out in November to rich Saudis. They don't have a choice

Edited by Jabbar

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On 9/21/2019 at 1:22 AM, DanilKa said:

There are sand dunes which are high but not huge. Otherwise flat. 

I wouldn’t advise talent...

from looks if it on photo - it wasn’t hobby farm build crafts

Actually, that is what 100% of the UAV's are. 

Hobby Farm Build crafts.  UAV's came OUT OF the RC hobby build crafts industry. 

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2 hours ago, Jabbar said:

The Brits at the Guardian Newspaper have figured it out.

Everyone wanted him to provide a source. There you go. 

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Ive worked in the oil industry for over 30 years.  When there is a plant emergency (as this clearly was) the fail safe is to divert volatile streams to a knock out pot and then this is linked to the flare which is designed to flare off the volatile in the worst case scenario.  The flare is sited away from people and property and designed to ensure the radiant heat will not affect people on the ground.  I cant tell by the pictures but usually you would still want the flare to be within a fenced off area so usually they are on the same facility but far away from any people or the assets

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(edited)

On 9/21/2019 at 4:22 AM, DanilKa said:

 

I wouldn’t advise talent...

f

All about push for November IPO. Strong arm local Saudi wealth. There are  4 leed managing banks and 12 junior banks. Total SIXTEEN Investment Banks.  Not one of them will say a negative word about Saudi or oil price or will be banned from IPO.

Saudi Aramco want listed in New York and London.  Exchange rules in these two require float greater than 5%.  Do the powerful Investment Banks get the respective exchanges to bend the rules for MBS ?  

This is not about 100 US billion.  It's about PR trying to position Saudi Arabia as safe Investment environment.  

My opinion only.

What say you ?

 

Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

On 9/17/2019 at 7:32 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

So what are you suggesting? Are you saying that the Saudis blew up their own facility in sone ‘false flag’ conspiracy?

Yes, it's perfectly clear.  Take an objective look.

It's obvious when you apply the five Gestalt Principles. 

Do you still disagree ?

Edited by Jabbar

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On 9/17/2019 at 4:28 AM, Jabbar said:

Experts question how attacks were so precise.  They knew exactly what to hit. 

Saudis need to explain 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-arabia-has-to-explain-how-its-oil-assets-in-abqaiq-were-attacked-says-ex-us-diplomat.html

Also, If you overlay GoogleMap on dramatic photo of billowing smoke you will see fire is not in oil processing plant or near complex but in the desert with a few roads and maybe some pipelines.  It is to southeast of the complex. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/drone-attack-on-saudi-oil-field-seen-as-pearl-harbor-moment

NEW: The Saudi government now say Anti-Missile Defense Systems were pointed to the South toward Yemen so did not detect incoming over 20 missiles and drones from the north..

U.S. military intelligence  determined first attack a couple of months ago on Saudi pipeline came from the Northeast not from Yemen Houthis in south.

The Saudi government didn't get the memo ? 

You can't make this up. 

Last week the WALLSTREET JOURNAL , FINANCIAL TIMES, BARRONS AND FORBES ALL  had articles with same theme. OPEC was losing the battle to keep oil prices up.  THEN COUPLE DSYS LATER THE ATTACK.

The Article referencing Pearl Harbor is gone. Hmmmmmm?

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If no other attack occurs in the next year to Abquiq then maybe it was the Saudis.  If it wasn't them, then surely another attack will follow and it will either be defeated or succeed.  In either case, it would prove the Saudis didn't do the first one.  Without a follow up we will never know but Iran is now enriching more uranium than they were allowed under the old deal.  They are also pushing for a new deal that would allow them greater enrichment.  They think there is pressure on KSA and the west, why?

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20 minutes ago, BakoDave said:

The Article referencing Pearl Harbor is gone. Hmmmmmm?

It's there for me, did you click on the link or try to type it in? 

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13 minutes ago, wrs said:

If no other attack occurs in the next year to Abquiq then maybe it was the Saudis.  If it wasn't them, then surely another attack will follow and it will either be defeated or succeed.  In either case, it would prove the Saudis didn't do the first one.  Without a follow up we will never know but Iran is now enriching more uranium than they were allowed under the old deal.  They are also pushing for a new deal that would allow them greater enrichment.  They think there is pressure on KSA and the west, why?

From the article I linked previously

Quote

According to Iranian and Houthi sources, the raiding force was comprised of 12 drones/cruise missiles, all from the Qasef family, which were launched from the Sanaa area in Yemen, and at least 20 drones which were launched “from nearby”, most likely Iran-held island(s) and/or barges, and provided intelligence coverage, last minute reconnaissance, jamming, decoys and diversion (including strikes on secondary objectives). According to the Iranian and Houthi sources, 10 of the Qasef 3 drone/cruise missiles hit their targets. A few Saeghe stealth drones launched Sadid-345 glide bombs against additional six to eight targets. Satellite damage assessment confirmed this statement.

On September 19, 2019, Houthi Brig.-Gen. Yahya Saree provided a detailed description of the strike.

Three types of strike drones/cruise missiles were used for the attack: the Qasef 3 combat drones, the long-endurance Sammad-3 drones (both with operational range of 1,500-1,700 kms) and “newly-developed drones equipped with jet engines”. This missile is actually a derivative of Iran’s Quds-1 cruise missile.

Saree explained that “the attacks were launched from three locations. Qasef 3 drones were launched from one site, Sammad 3drones from a second and new jet-powered drones from a third.” The Sammad-3 drones “carried four precise [precision] bombs per strike”. As well, numerous “other drones” were also “used to confuse the enemy so the main combat drones could hide in their shadow without being detected, and signal jamming devices effectively disabled the enemy’s air missile defense systems.”

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Has-Iran-Won-The-War-For-The-Middle-East.html

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Based on the rhetoric coming from both sides(Iran and US), I expect another strike shortly.  The Iranians have stated, if we can't export, no one can.  So then the next target may be UAE or it could be another strike on Abquiq.  However, I think UAE would be more problematic politically and business wise because Iran has a lot of registered companies in the UAE and uses them for a lot of import/export.  Besides, KSA ostracized UAE so enemy of my enemy could be in play there.  Not really sure but something is more likely than not to happen soon.

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