US Recession. Deja Vu 2000, Flashback 2007 or Operation Fear?

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PART II   How probable is a recession this year or next? The renowned David Rosenberg, who was one of the handful of economists to predict the 2007 downturn, thinks the US may be in one now. Evergreen doubts that, but the evidence is mounting that perhaps later this year, or in the first half of 2020, we could be in the midst of one.


Moreover, just this week the man considered the new King of Bonds, Jeff Gundlach, made the bold call that he believes there is a 75% chance of a US recession prior to next year’s presidential election. This is despite a growing chorus in the financial media lately singing the tune that the global economy is reviving. (Presumably, per his quote at the top of page 1, the reason he believes an “un-inversion” is problematic is that these happen when the Fed is panicking and furiously cutting rates to stave off a recession.)

Again, returning to the inversion of the yield curve, a striking aspect is how virtually the entire curve is flipped, which is a rare occurrence. As David Rosenberg wrote two weeks ago in his daily Breakfast with Dave (a must read, in my opinion, for any serious investor), the Fed pays the most attention to the 3-month T-bill versus the 10-year T-note. As well they should; when that has stayed inverted for at least three straight months, a recession has occurred 100% of the time.

Guess what just happened?

As David wrote on August 26th, “When it (the curve) was only flattening a year ago, the bulls said ‘it’ll never invert.’ When it began to, the bulls said “only 2s/10s matter.’* When that inverted, the bulls said, ‘it’s different this time’. Good grief.”


Edited by DayTrader

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Amid Too Much Good MAGAnomic Data, Bloomberg Cancels the Recession


And my earlier musings from a few weeks ago.  Hopefully I will be proven wrong:


As the impending "No - Deal Brexit" scares the piss out of EU Globalist unaccountable and unelected officials in Brussels, and Multinational companies and certain Western politicians that want to see China succeed and Western Democracies fail plot and scheme to create uncertainty and chaos, "Operation Fear" steps to the forefront.

I believe the "Operation Fear" scaremongering will get heavily promoted in all major Western Media, and will severely, and negatively, affect global economies - deliberately crashing them, including oil demand and oil prices.

So, I plan to periodically update this running thread with updates primarily from The Conservative Treehouse and The Tylers at ZeroHedge, both of which seem aware of what is going on with the Globalist backlash to a hard Brexit, a No - Deal Brexit.  

The Sky Is Falling !

Panic ! !

We're All Going To Die ! ! !

^ Mainstream Media reaction to No - Deal Brexit.

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MAGAnomic. I like that.

I will edit title.

Edited by DayTrader
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