JN

Trade deal coming. Be careful. Oil Price up Initially but down when traders realize the Huge Increase of U.S. Oil Exports to China.

Recommended Posts

(edited)

The deal being discussed foundation is based on China agreeing to make HUGE imports of U.S  pork, Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL). Great for U.S. SHALE producers.

But traders be aware.  I think Oil Prices go up initially, but come in after everyone realizes the large amount of U.S. shale exports increase prices come back down. 

Need to be quick on this trade. Protect your downside. 

Edited by Jabbar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oil prices are a global commodity. I don’t think where China gets its oil matters in the long run as long as they keep consuming. Same with nat gas. I am sure the US producers will sell for the best price they can get. China or no China. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed Boat.  US is an exporter.  China is an importer.  Oil in fungible. 


I'd sell any rally in Oil until the demand equation is solidified.  I regret that might not be until 2021.

For now, we'll need to knock some supply off the market to get at least a short covering rally.  That'll be OPEC (fast) or US rig count drop (slow).  Look out $40's, here we come?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jabbar said:

But traders be aware.  I think Oil Prices go up initially, but come in after everyone realizes the large amount of U.S. shale exports increase prices come back down. 

 

Oil went up for 90 mins then went down all day. Gold star to @Jabbar . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

1 hour ago, Boat said:

Oil prices are a global commodity. I don’t think where China gets its oil matters in the long run as long as they keep consuming. Same with nat gas. I am sure the US producers will sell for the best price they can get. China or no China. 

Agreed. Boat is correct.  Oil Prices going down. 

Don't think ever coming back strong absent a major Middle East conflict.

World Oil has not seen the effect of new pipelines to U.S. export terminals, Russia increase 500k day, Iraq increase 2 million day, Nigeria continue increase, Norway increase, Brazil 3 million increase, Guyana grow from zero to 3 million, Canada Keystone 800k increase. 

What if Venezuela, Iran settle ?

 

Edited by Jabbar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aren’t you making the assumption that EVERYONE will increase production regardless what the price is?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.