When Can Electric Cars Compete on Cost with ICE

[NickW + 2,714]

56 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Here are the numbers for European EVs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Europe They are still a niche vehicle. It will be interesting to see how they do over the long run. I can't imagine long range trucks working on electricity except as hybrids charged by diesel or gasoline engines. 

 

Hybrid* CNG?

They would be series hybrid (parallel isn't going to work on HGV's) with an electric motor at each wheel on the tractor unit. 

Think of that energy you can recover when 44 tonnes starts braking. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by NickW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 minutes ago, NickW said:

Hybrid* CNG?

They would be series hybrid (parallel isn't going to work on HGV's) with an electric motor at each wheel on the tractor unit. 

Think of that energy you can recover when 44 tonnes starts braking. 

I am all for harnessing braking power and wasted heat. That would be fantastic. When I think of trucking I think of diesel electric locomotives and how LNG could do that more cleanly and cheaply. 

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Here are the numbers for European EVs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Europe They are still a niche vehicle. It will be interesting to see how they do over the long run. I can't imagine long range trucks working on electricity except as hybrids charged by diesel or gasoline engines. 

All the major vehicle manufacturers are now committed to EV models and are pouring in tens of $billions to get this to fruition, plus there are now 45 newly proposed battery megafactories in the pipeline, so the tide has turned strongly in favor of EVs for now, although heavy vehicles may move in future to energy dense hydrogen.

Edited November 11, 2019 by remake it
added "hydrogen" to the mix

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Hydrogen is less energy dense than natural gas, is more expensive, more dangerous, and harder to contain. 

The main contribution of electric vehicles will be cleaner air, which is great. Natural gas will be the main fuel. Natural gas doesn't require batteries. Future market share will see how far they will go. Price is a big factor for the average person. 

I really want to see a good cost analysis of electric vehicles versus ICE options. It may be too soon for that. I am not anti, just anti the purchase price. 

[Marcin + 519]

On 11/10/2019 at 12:15 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Come on, Ron!  US nuclear reactors have been operating for 70 years!

The big ships of the US Navy are are nuke powered, with "dangerous" light-water reactors, if you believe the hysteria crowd.  A carrier has four reactors on board; a sub has at least two.  Those are high-stress combat vessels.  They don't have problems.  The reactors on the Enterprise ran for 50 years continuous service, totally flawless.  Don't let the spooks and the crazies push your thinking away from nuke power.  Those people are both nuts and illiterate. 

I agree with all that you said about naval reactors. Numbers: US current aircraft carriers 2 reactors each, only Enterprise had 8, all other US nuclear vessels have 1 reactor. It actually proves more your point that nuclear reactors are flawless, fantastic human inventions. Carriers need 2 because too big power needed so 1 insufficient + survivability thing. Only early US subs 2 reactors. Soviet Union mounted 2 in largest monster subs like Akula class, Russian Navy puts only 1 in each, the same as US (and all other countries).

[remake it + 288]

26 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Hydrogen is less energy dense than natural gas, is more expensive, more dangerous, and harder to contain. 

The potential solution for heavy vehicles, believe it or not, is in Tesla's first name - Nikola Motors -  and the company's recent $billion injection tells us it's a very serious proposition.

29 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I really want to see a good cost analysis of electric vehicles versus ICE options. It may be too soon for that. I am not anti, just anti the purchase price.

Different nations will have different bureaucratic "entry" and insurance costs affecting such a comparison although the earlier link to Tesloop's maintenance costs at least showed repairs to be on a relatively equal basis, while again different costs of electricity can significantly alter the analysis (eg. Germany being nearly 3 times higher than USA). 

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

One nice thing about natural gas vehicles is that they can be had by just converting any ICE vehicle 

https://www.thoughtco.com/compressed-natural-gas-conversion-companies-85555

https://www.energiaalliance.com/ Europe

Most the conversions are to LPG though

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 hours ago, NickW said:

Hybrid* CNG?

They would be series hybrid (parallel isn't going to work on HGV's) with an electric motor at each wheel on the tractor unit. 

Think of that energy you can recover when 44 tonnes starts braking. 

Think about the energy required to haul a fully loaded 18 wheeler over the Continental Divide..

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Most the conversions are to LPG though

Large trucks and ships use LNG. Cars, buses, small vans, local trucks, refuse trucks, cement trucks all use CNG. LNG is used for long haul trucks sometimes, but there is plenty of range in the new CNG cylinders also. LNG is always used in ships and could be used for locomotives and aircraft. CNG has been used in small aircraft. LNG would require a special design for large planes. It has not been done but designs have been made, it is doable and would cost far less than jet fuel. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

26 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Think about the energy required to haul a fully loaded 18 wheeler over the Continental Divide..

Think about the energy to push an LNG powered ship around the world.  See https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrE1xsVIcpdiTgAtxhXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyYWRkM2FjBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjg3NDVfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=lng+powered+ships&fr=mcafee

https://www.marineinsight.com/tech/10-noteworthy-lng-fueled-vessels/

Edited November 12, 2019 by ronwagn
reference

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Imagine, if you will, somebody actually stopped talking about this stuff and, without any subsidies or tax breaks, built a ‘proof of concept’ system/ design that actually proved the concept to work AND generate a profit.

This would silence the nay-sayers and attract investors.

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Think about the energy required to haul a fully loaded 18 wheeler over the Continental Divide..

Applies equally to both conventional ICE and series Hybrid*. Difference is a Hybrid can recover a significant proportion of the braking energy and reuse it. 

*A series hybrid is basically an updated version of a diesel - electric which also has a battery pack to store recovered energy / charge if sufficiently sized. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

9 minutes ago, NickW said:

Applies equally to both conventional ICE and series Hybrid*. Difference is a Hybrid can recover a significant proportion of the braking energy and reuse it. 

*A series hybrid is basically an updated version of a diesel - electric which also has a battery pack to store recovered energy / charge if sufficiently sized. 

Nick,

I do not doubt what you are saying, you are obviously much more knowledgeable on this subject than I am.

What is confusing me is, if this technology is so damn good, and presently available, why isn’t it being accepted and out there on the road?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

14 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What is confusing me is, if this technology is so damn good, and presently available, why isn’t it being accepted and out there on the road?

It already is  : )    Although in it is in combination form ...

 

[NickW + 2,714]

13 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Nick,

I do not doubt what you are saying, you are obviously much more knowledgeable on this subject than I am.

What is confusing me is, if this technology is so damn good, and presently available, why isn’t it being accepted and out there on the road?

They certainly are in the medium sector and starting to in HGV but fleet turnover is slow - it isnt going to happen over night or even a decade. I suspect the sector wanted to see first how it worked out in cars and private light goods. 

Some examples of whats on the market:

Medium truck

https://www.volvotrucks.co.uk/en-gb/about/environment/volvohybridconcept/volvofehybrid.html

https://www.scania.com/uk/en/home/experience-scania/news-and-events/news/2018/09/hybrid-truck-for-urban.html

(Elecric - good for urban enviroments)

http://www.renault-trucks.co.uk/news/renault-trucks-unveils-its-electric-truck-range-zero-emissions-from-31-to.html

HGV

http://tools.mercedes-benz.co.uk/current/trucks/brochures/products/atego-bluetec-hybrid.pdf

https://www.trucklocator.co.uk/blog/truck-and-trailer-news/2017/03/volvo-trucks-unveils-improved-hybrid-hgv-concept

https://www.daf.com/en/about-daf/innovation/electric-and-hybrid-trucks

https://www.danfoss.com/en/service-and-support/case-studies/dps/europe-s-first-hybrid-powered-heavy-truck/

[NickW + 2,714]

4 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

It already is  : )    Although in it is in combination form ...

 

I don't really see the difference between that and running out of petrol and getting the breakdown service to come out with 5 litres of gasoline. 

For PHEV / Hybrid Heavy and Medium trucks the above is only going to happen if you run out of diesel😉

[remake it + 288]

7 minutes ago, NickW said:

I don't really see the difference between that and running out of petrol and getting the breakdown service to come out with 5 litres of gasoline. 

For PHEV / Hybrid Heavy and Medium trucks the above is only going to happen if you run out of diesel😉

The truth is that the “generator” is a lithium battery pack and not "diesel" but nice try from Mr Kirkman who might need new glasses.

[remake it + 288]

28 minutes ago, NickW said:

I don't really see the difference between that and running out of petrol and getting the breakdown service to come out with 5 litres of gasoline. 

Mr Ward, see for yourself as the battery pack is made in Adelaide.

[NickW + 2,714]

26 minutes ago, remake it said:

Mr Ward, see for yourself as the battery pack is made in Adelaide.

Good spot or maybe not - its charged off the rescue vehicle

Edited November 12, 2019 by NickW

[PE Scott + 563]

16 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

PE that truck will probably average 4 to 5L/100 . 13' 5.4L f150 get 15L/100 that's 5 speed the 6 speeds get like 13L and current aluminum 2.7L 9 speed TT get like 9/100 . So that cuts current fuel in half and should have other benefits as you stated.

Do you think it would be that dramatic of a difference?

Maybe, I don't really have anything to compare with. I feel like my current twin-turboed engine in my raptor paired with a 10 speed is pretty efficient(16 mpg or 6.25 gal/100 miles). Certainly the MPG are a lot better than my previous 6.2L raptor with a 6 speed. Ultimately though, it's a tall gearing with 35" tires. That alone will kill efficiency. 

Just as an aside, my I-Pace has averaged 39 kwh/100 mi over the last 1200 miles or so. I think it may be the very least efficient electric car out right now. It also weighs nearly as much as my truck, all though it's far more aerodynamic.

My residential electric average is $0.117 per KWH. The trip meter indicates an average speed of 43 mph, which is misleading because I do 80 up and down the freeways all the time. So, it gives you guys some real world numbers to compare to.

 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Many people ignore the mileage benefits of the new automatic transmissions with say 8-10 speeds. It is impressive.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, remake it said:

The truth is that the “generator” is a lithium battery pack and not "diesel" but nice try from Mr Kirkman who might need new glasses.

Don’t even touch this Tom! If you do it will devolve into a helical argument with no end...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

22 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Don’t even touch this Tom! If you do it will devolve into a helical argument with no end...

Heh heh, watching the helical arguments here can be amusing to me. 

Usually I make no attempt to respond to certain posters here, as it is generally a lost cause in my opinion.  Or sometimes I poke them a bit, just for amusement, to watch the Jello jiggle and bounce and dance around and perform impossible mental pretzel gymnastics.

Anyway, not sure if bots will "get" this oblique humor:

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

PE is the raptor supercharged? 6.2L is alot of engine ! Turbos dont add load off gas but superchargers always had load now some have a clutch system. Superchargers have better down low with no spool up time. For those wondering . I did the math looks like your doing 11.3L/100km if so even it that's highway that's impressive . Raptor is like 600hp? Plus tires for mud not aerodynamic jacked up with large frontal surface area. My uncles transport is a 600hp cat 16L chipped to 900hp on a switch. He said trailer or not 23L/100km. Electric motors use power very different that ICE. So with a small ice generator (gasoline battery in mind) the gen is always in its powerband and the motor can use the power more efficiently.  Think a turbine engine is efficient at wide open , a 4 stroke in power band , a electric motor a low/no speed but also it doesn't make heat to create movement (it moves therefore it gets hot) so all (most 90%) of energy is movement . Kinda like an old lightbulb they make heat that makes light (glowing hot wire with no oxygen to melt) led lights make like and that makes some heat.

Doug - ontop of lower cruise rpm and wider range in the transmission they help get the engine to use thinner oil (along with wider bearings) while having longer service intervals . Hp and therefore bearing thrust stays lower longer an oil cooler keeps it at temp and the rpm isnt enough to wipe the surface film and without overheating the oil the pump pressure stays proper. So with a crank going through thinner oil a billion times it saves fuel. Honda Toyota have super thin 0w-16 out and are working on 0w -12 . 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Rob Kramer
Add add add

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

One nice thing about natural gas vehicles is that they can be had by just converting any ICE vehicle 

 

If they can run better than propane in the cold it could stand a chance; but propane is actually a liquid fuel when compressed and cold.

Downside is underground parking prohibits such vehicles.