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2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019

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Welcome to the 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019!

 

If you've been with us since our previous challenge, you know the drill. If not, welcome to Oil Price, and welcome to your opportunity to win some street cred here at the Oil Price Community.

Whether you are a veteran oil trader flush with cash (or down on your luck) or a crude oil connoisseur, a drilling rig operator or a geopolitical analyst with your finger on the pulse, a Washington insider with the skinny on trade developments with China, a loyal community follower, or a pricing expert citing in newsfeed the world over, this contest is for you!

No experience required. 

We are looking for the best oil price predictions. 

Community members will have the opportunity to place their best oil price predictions in this thread in the following categories (you must be a member to enter, so join now )

1) 4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2019

2) 4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2019

3) 4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2019

Entries will be taken until December 8, 2019, and winners will be announced on or around January 13, 2020. The spot price data will be used to determine the contest winners is the EIA spot price published here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm

Along with your predictions in the three categories above, we would love to hear your basis for your predictions, whether it's based on technicals, fundamentals, geopolitics, or pulled straight out of your.... er.... hiney. Any information regarding your price predictions are welcomed as well. 

 

IMPORTANT RULES

  • Price prediction posts CANNOT be edited, edited posts will be disqualified from the challenge. We will keep a master list of the rpedictions, which will be used for determining the winners (one winner per category).
  • You may comment on other's posts, and what you think about their prediction (keep it civil, please)
  • Off topic posts in this thread will be deleted
  • Winners will be selected at the start of the new year and will be notified via a community message. The winners will also be publicly listed in this thread.
  • To enter: Simply place your predictions for the three categories above in a post in this thread below no later than December 8, 2019.

 

WHAT TO WIN?

The winner in each category will win a full year of Global Energy Alert, which will be delivered to you every week. 

LET THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR!

 

 

 

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WTI - 54.111

Brent - 59.444

Spread - 5.333

 

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WTI - 60.52

Brent - 66.21

Spread - 5.69

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3 hours ago, DayTrader said:

WTI - 54.111

Brent - 59.444

Spread - 5.333

 

Coming in early with a 3-decimal place answer! The confidence.....

I see you've left the currency ambiguous though. Smart move. Now you can argue this was in pesos or whatever currency brings you closer to the correct answer.....I'm on to your tricky ways @DayTrader 😂

 

 

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(edited)

22 minutes ago, PE Scott said:

3-decimal place answer! The confidence.....

Haha well on my platform WTI is to 3 decimal places. Brent admittedly is only to 2 and I never trade it, but I can't edit now coz I'll be accused of cheating. And I'm not gonna wait until the last second to make my prediction - that's verging on cheating. PFF. Get your predictions in bitches!! 

And no confidence at all - I looked at daily charts for each oil for first time in weeks, normally I work primarily off a 15 minute chart and care where oil will be in 6 hours, not 6 weeks! I'm hoping no shooty obviously, not that it affected a lot before. 

And yes, it's quid, bucks or euros - not decided yet, I will decide in late Dec ...

Edited by DayTrader
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WTI - 57.21

Brent - 62.77

Spread - 5.13

 

*takes darts from the dartboard and walks away*

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WTI - 56.55

BRENT- 62.75

SPREAD - 5.65

I believe the prices will continue to float in their current rut, weighing on the trade war, ample supply, continued economic slowdowns and overall optimistic outlook going into 2020.  opec meeting, we will see if ksa will do "whatever it takes" to prevent glut in first half of the year anf get prices up, which they need prior to their public offering.  far from something short of a serious outbreak of large proportions(markets shrugged off everything this last year) may be gloomy going into 2020 so I don't see much movement in prices going in...but we'll see and cross our fingers

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WIT: Ethanol will magically grow

DENT: Free Renewable Energy with 100% capacity factor

SPREAD: Uh, police pat down or Greta & co taking your wallet?

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Wti 61.454

BC 67.75

Spr 6.296

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WTI (bullish view): OPEC agrees on deeper cuts, though current inventories and demand declines offset the optimism not allowing the price to rise too far

Brent (bearish view): oil will follow the stock market Xmas correction. Current stock valuations are quite rosy and should any of the significant risks materialize the correction would be imminent dragging the price of oil down

Spread (slanted towards stable-slightly bullish): the higher the oil price in any 'marker' the bigger the spread.

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WTI 53.01

Brent 57.42

Spread 4.41

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WTI    $US 59.95

Brent    $US 65.96

Brent/WTI    $US 6.01

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WTI  $58.73

Brent $63.29

SPREAD $5.13

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WTI $57.00

Brent $62.50

Spread $5.50

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WTI - 54.80

Brent - 61.10

Spread - 5.65

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On 11/20/2019 at 6:51 PM, Selva said:

LET THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR!

FavoUr  ;) 

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Brent 65.22

WTI 60.37

Spread 4.85

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Brent: 61.50

WTI: 57.85

WTI/Brent Spread: -3.65

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Brent: $66.45

WTI:  $61.25

Brent WTI spread: $5.20

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WTI: 53

Brent: 57.41
Spread: 4.41

[Undercutting the lowest bid by 1 cent so if oil closes low, I automatically win]

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9 hours ago, canadas canadas said:

Bullish on sour crude

Bearish on sweet crude

canadas canadas,

What could be possibly be good about sulphur ? Did you mean bullish Heavy crude ?

Or have you just bought into Tullow Oil like me ?

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WTI        58.63

BRENT   64.18

SPREAD 5.67

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