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Democrats through impeachment process helped Trump go out of China deal conundrum. Now Trump can safely postpone deal till after November 2020 elections

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(edited)

Democratic party by starting and aggressively pursuing the impeachment process suddenly changed the optics of current US political narrative. It seems domestic matters will dominate campaign clashes.

Trade war with China took a back seat. At the same time Congress becomes more hawkish towards China every day. There is bipartisan contest who is true American patriot, anti-Chinese American patriot. Anti-Chinese bills relating to Hong Kong and today Xinjang were passed with overhelming bipartisan support. Trump had to sign them, and prize them or he will suddenly face backlash from Republican Party. So impeachment proceedings are very convenient distraction from China conundrum. This is a real win for Trump as he can now safely postpone the deal till after the elections, at the same time eliminate the threat from hawkish Congress that would scrutinize any deal and name Trump Chinese asset  and still be owner of China narrative - the first President that done a lot to stop China raping American economy.

And Trump is wise, he saw the opportunity and already utilized it, as Tuesday remarks show:

“I have no deadline, no,” Trump told reporters in London, where he was due to attend a meeting of NATO leaders.

“In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now, and we’ll see whether or not the deal’s going to be right; it’s got to be right.”

What are your opinions about it ?

Edited by Marcin
typo
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8 minutes ago, Marcin said:

And Trump is wise, he saw the opportunity and already utilized it, 

Trump is NOT wise. As per your own analysis Trump needs cooperation with Europe in order to really have an impact on China. If Trump was wise and preparing for hegemony conflict with China he would making allies and friends around the world. 

No doubt he is good a winning the election though. But in terms of conflict with China - this is a marathon, not a sprint. But trump is treating it like a sprint

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21 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Trump is NOT wise. As per your own analysis Trump needs cooperation with Europe in order to really have an impact on China. If Trump was wise and preparing for hegemony conflict with China he would making allies and friends around the world. 

No doubt he is good a winning the election though. But in terms of conflict with China - this is a marathon, not a sprint. But trump is treating it like a sprint

I get the feeling Rasmus you're not a massive Trump fan 🤣🤣

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Marcin said:

“I have no deadline, no,” Trump told reporters in London, where he was due to attend a meeting of NATO leaders.

“In some ways, I like the idea of waiting

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

But in terms of conflict with China - this is a marathon, not a sprint. But trump is treating it like a sprint

In what sense sir? 

EDIT -  I assume you mean their 'conflict' in its totality sir, not simply the latest 'deal' I assume. Nevermind. My apologies.

I would also add that I believe Mr Trump will win again but the title of this thread could be seen as a risky tactic if indeed this is the case.

Edited by Papillon
Addition and clarification.
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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

I get the feeling Rasmus you're not a massive Trump fan 🤣🤣

What gave me away ?

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2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Trump is NOT wise.

@Rasmus Jorgensen I will first go a little bit off topic to back my premise that Trump is by some metrics the best US President since at least Eisenhower. Donald Trump is the first really succesful person turned politician and not professional politician turned US President. I think business experience is a very good background for becoming politician.

List of US presidents, professional politicians are also divided into experienced and inexperienced at the moment of election:

Trump - succesful businessman turned politician

Obama - professional politician (inexperienced)

Bush Junior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced), with short business career,

Clinton - professional politician (experienced)

Bush senior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (experienced), short business career,

Ronald Reagan - actor that became professional politician (experienced),

Jimmy Carter - professional politician (experienced)

Ford - professional politician (experienced)

Nixon - professional politician (experienced)

Johnson - professional politician (experienced)

Kennedy - princeling from Kennedy Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced)

Eisenhower - military commander turned politician

 

 

 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Trump is NOT wise. As per your own analysis Trump needs cooperation with Europe in order to really have an impact on China. If Trump was wise and preparing for hegemony conflict with China he would making allies and friends around the world. 

No doubt he is good a winning the election though. But in terms of conflict with China - this is a marathon, not a sprint. But trump is treating it like a sprint

I was trying to see the situation through the Trump lenses, his problems and goals. His major task is to win 2020 election, all other tasks are secondary. You are right to REALLY solve conflict with China, Trump needs co-operation with Europe, but who says any US politician really wants to solve US problems. It is not their primary task, primary one is ...................................................... yes, no suprise here, to win next election.

Edited by Marcin
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21 minutes ago, Marcin said:

@Rasmus Jorgensen I will first go a little bit off topic to back my premise that Trump is by some metrics the best US President since at least Eisenhower. Donald Trump is the first really succesful person turned politician and not professional politician turned US President. I think business experience is a very good background for becoming politician.

List of US presidents, professional politicians are also divided into experienced and inexperienced at the moment of election:

Trump - succesful businessman turned politician

Obama - professional politician (inexperienced)

Bush Junior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced), with short business career,

Clinton - professional politician (experienced)

Bush senior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (experienced), short business career,

Ronald Reagan - actor that became professional politician (experienced),

Jimmy Carter - professional politician (experienced)

Ford - professional politician (experienced)

Nixon - professional politician (experienced)

Johnson - professional politician (experienced)

Kennedy - princeling from Kennedy Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced)

Eisenhower - military commander turned politician

I like your list. One addendum I would add is executive management experience. It is well known (albeit forgotten in all the hype surrounding Obama) that state governors make better presidents than senators or congressmen, because the skillset is totally different. Someone like Biden can spend a 30 year career in the Senate and never introduce a single piece of legislation, let alone "manage" anything more that a staff of yes men. 

On the experience side, Trump is completely inexperienced as a politician. Many people like myself see that as a positive, but every professional politician (and they are legion) see that as decidedly negative. Many people like to compare Trump to Reagan, but as you adroitly pointed out, Reagan was most certainly a professional politician by the time he ran for President. Eisenhower was merely a general and obviously an outsider to politics as Trump is. However, with his pedigree (winning WWII helps), no one dared subject him to the kind of attacks Trump experiences daily. Furthermore it was quite frankly a better time then. Newspapers and the three networks employed actual journalists who had professional standards, not pitch men pretending to be journalists. 

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13 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I like your list. One addendum I would add is executive management experience. It is well known (albeit forgotten in all the hype surrounding Obama) that state governors make better presidents than senators or congressmen, because the skillset is totally different. Someone like Biden can spend a 30 year career in the Senate and never introduce a single piece of legislation, let alone "manage" anything more that a staff of yes men. 

On the experience side, Trump is completely inexperienced as a politician. Many people like myself see that as a positive, but every professional politician (and they are legion) see that as decidedly negative. Many people like to compare Trump to Reagan, but as you adroitly pointed out, Reagan was most certainly a professional politician by the time he ran for President. Eisenhower was merely a general and obviously an outsider to politics as Trump is. However, with his pedigree (winning WWII helps), no one dared subject him to the kind of attacks Trump experiences daily. Furthermore it was quite frankly a better time then. Newspapers and the three networks employed actual journalists who had professional standards, not pitch men pretending to be journalists. 

Good point, and I also  took the governorships under consideration in labelling professional politicians. Only Bush junior in my opinion was inexperienced even that he was Texas governor before. But he was not up to his job more because history made small nasty twist (9/11 attack) which he changed into a big policy blunders, and was under the shadow of Dick "Military industrial complex" Cheney. Was Bush Junior the President during easy times of Clinton Presidency nobody would notice his weakness.

I think Obama made a lot of good for racial problems both in US and globally and I will always remember him more as Martin Luther King like personality. And in his first term I think the real President was Secretary Clinton.

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3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Trump is NOT wise. As per your own analysis Trump needs cooperation with Europe in order to really have an impact on China. If Trump was wise and preparing for hegemony conflict with China he would making allies and friends around the world. 

No doubt he is good a winning the election though. But in terms of conflict with China - this is a marathon, not a sprint. But trump is treating it like a sprint

Tom said it best though, the war really is over and we did win. Getting disentangled through judicial means can get messy, and no one wants the government telling companies that they have to leave China, so the tariffs have done the job splendidly by themselves. I want to see nothing more that complete disengagement form the China economy, I know we'll never get completely free, but as much as possible.

And are you so sure that Trump is not wise? I really do believe he has been setting the Demo's up for the fall, and they are so EAGER to prosecute him that we all know they are more than willing to jump at even the slightest minuscule chance to do so.... If they get stuck in Washington next year because of an impeachment trial, they won't be able to go out on the campaign trail, and all of them are up for re-election.....

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32 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I think Obama made a lot of good for racial problems both in US and globally and I will always remember him more as Martin Luther King like personality. 

Couldn't disagree more!

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18 minutes ago, SERWIN said:

Tom said it best though, the war really is over and we did win. Getting disentangled through judicial means can get messy, and no one wants the government telling companies that they have to leave China, so the tariffs have done the job splendidly by themselves. I want to see nothing more that complete disengagement form the China economy, I know we'll never get completely free, but as much as possible.

And are you so sure that Trump is not wise? I really do believe he has been setting the Demo's up for the fall, and they are so EAGER to prosecute him that we all know they are more than willing to jump at even the slightest minuscule chance to do so.... If they get stuck in Washington next year because of an impeachment trial, they won't be able to go out on the campaign trail, and all of them are up for re-election.....

Please read my comments in the Tom Kirkman thread about trade war with China. But fortunately we do not have to argue about it,  to prove this or other way, win/loose etc. Time will tell, Trump is wisely manouvering with the deal right into spring of 2021, after winning second term. By this moment the numbers will tell the truth about the trade war (for some like me they already told their story, but longer time series will give satisfying answer for the rest of the pack).

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(edited)

5 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Please read my comments in the Tom Kirkman thread about trade war with China

That narrows it down to half the website I believe, so I thank you sir for mentioning Mr Kirkman atleast as that may save me a little time ...  :) 

Edited by Papillon
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47 minutes ago, Bob D said:

Couldn't disagree more!

There is a stereotype relating to black persons both in US and around the world. Obama changed this stereotype.

Edited by Marcin
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1 hour ago, Marcin said:

I think Obama made a lot of good for racial problems both in US and globally and I will always remember him more as Martin Luther King like personality. And in his first term I think the real President was Secretary Clinton.

   I would have to disagree with that statement, under the Obama administration racial tensions are higher than they have been in years, and even black people that have been watching will tell you that he did absolutely nothing for them. I do believe the only thing he did was make it easier for Muslims to be here, pointedly things like them being excluded from the regulations of the ACA. That was pure favoritism there, I will say it again, either a law applies to everyone, or it doesn't apply at all. Why should anyone be expected to obey a law when someone else is exempted? Kind of like the no kid left behind strategy( I know that was Bush), why should the school districts that are performing be expected to follow the law and the ones that just can't get it together get exemptions and keep right on being a mess? 

   That was the start of really being able to see that the law only applies to certain people, but not everyone. Like how it seems to apply to everyone with the exception of the Demo's in congress right now? I live around the Houston area and the school is such a stupid mess that the state finally came in and took over the schools, the board has no say now in HISD policies and such. What a waste, but there was so much of a power struggle from within that they couldn't get anything positive done for the students. But they did manage to give out raises for themselves, kinda funny how that worked.

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1 hour ago, Papillon said:

That narrows it down to half the website I believe, so I thank you sir for mentioning Mr Kirkman atleast as that may save me a little time ...  :) 

Tom just quoted part of my argumentation relating to trade war in his thread , so it is down to 2-3 latest comments.

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(edited)

@Papillon And argument why long term technology war cannot be won by US, copied from my other thread: Blue lines are East Asia, and more than half of blue lines is China alone (more than Europe and Noth America combined)

 

image.png.fd6f24789ebbf4e85847ae720fc015db.png
:

Installations of industrial robots are good indicator of trends in advanced manufacturing development.

The largest cluster of supply chains in advanced manufacturing is located in Asia and more precisely in the East Asia region in 3 countries:

China, Japan, South Korea

These 3 countries installed 251,000 out of 422,000 of industrial robots in 2018, that is 59.5% of global installations.

United States installed 40,000 units: 9.5%

Germany 27,000 robots: 6.4%

By region: Asia 67%, Europe 18.% and North America 13.0%.

These advanced manufacturing is working for 7.5 billion of global consumers.

United States is .3 billion consumers 4% but constituting 23% of global GDP.

Never the less the rest of the world is 77% of global GDP and this share is rising by 1.5% every year,

because global GDP growth is about 4%, whereas US growth is 2%.

So chances of changing supply chains due to trade or technology war are minimal, what is more probable isolated supply chains of more expensive goods will be developed exclusively for US consumer market and for components for US industry. These in turn will further decrease competitiveness of US industry vs rest of the world

It is from World Robotics 2019 report by International Federation of Robotics

Edited by Marcin
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7 minutes ago, Marcin said:

@Papillon And argument why long term technology war cannot be won by US, copied from my other thread: Blue lines are East Asia, and more than half of blue lines is China alone (more than Europe and Noth America combined)

 

image.png.fd6f24789ebbf4e85847ae720fc015db.png
:

Installations of industrial robots are good indicator of trends in advanced manufacturing development.

The largest cluster of supply chains in advanced manufacturing is located in Asia and more precisely in the East Asia region in 3 countries:

China, Japan, South Korea

These 3 countries installed 251,000 out of 422,000 of industrial robots in 2018, that is 59.5% of global installations.

United States installed 40,000 units: 9.5%

Germany 27,000 robots: 6.4%

By region: Asia 67%, Europe 18.% and North America 13.0%.

These advanced manufacturing is working for 7.5 billion of global consumers.

United States is .3 billion consumers 4% but constituting 23% of global GDP.

Never the less the rest of the world is 77% of global GDP and this share is rising by 1.5% every year,

because global GDP growth is about 4%, whereas US growth is 2%.

So chances of changing supply chains due to trade or technology war are minimal, what is more probable isolated supply chains of more expensive goods will be developed exclusively for US consumer market and for components for US industry. These in turn will further decrease competitiveness of US industry vs rest of the world

It is from World Robotics 2019 report by International Federation of Robotics

In terms of technical prowess, don't just focus on installation of robots, ask yourself where said robots were designed and manufactured? 

Foxconn has the vast majority of those robots installed in their many factories. Almost exclusively they come from Japan and some from the US. The big robots come from the US and the small fast robots from Japan. I'll be impressed with China when they design their own chips (instead of stealing them), write their own software (same), and invent something all on their own. 

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(edited)

.

Edited by Bob D
wrong thread

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(edited)

17 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

In terms of technical prowess, don't just focus on installation of robots, ask yourself where said robots were designed and manufactured? 

True, what I wanted to show is that supply chains of advanced manufacturing are entrenched in East Asia and are not going anywhere. Technology apect was secondary objective.

Composite technology/innovation metrics, China is 14th, only developing country in top 30:

Global Innovation Index 2019 is the most comprehensive ranking I know related to Innovation. It is common effort by Cornell University, INSEAD and WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization)

Link to the report:

https://www.wipo.int/publications/en/details.jsp?id=4434

Start reading on page xvii the Executive Summary

The main messages of the Global Innovation Index 2019 can be
summarized in seven key findings. (Every finding is described in a few paragraphs)
1: Amid economic slowdown, innovation is blossoming around the world; but new obstacles pose risks to global innovation

2: Shifts in the global innovation landscape are materializing;some middle-income economies are on the rise

3: Innovation inputs and outputs are still concentrated in very few economies; a global innovation divide persists

4: Some economies get more return on their innovation investments than others

5: Shifting focus from innovation quantity to innovation quality remains a priority

6: Most top science and technology clusters are in the U.S., China, and Germany

7: Creating healthy lives through medical innovation requires more investment in innovation and increased diffusion efforts (Medical innovation is this year special focus area apart from usual report)

 

Edited by Marcin
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Picture of R&D spending by countries and regions, from Global Innovation Index 2019. Most of R&D (about 75%) globally is funded by business. Area of each circle shows the amount of spending.

image.png.e17c3755120b6b9a03fb19aab504f3e3.png

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November 24
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image.png.61e9ae429130da470a7c9b8dabf82a45.png

 

 

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Number of Foreign Patents registered in US Patent Office by country in 2015, TOP COUNTRIES

Origin   2015

JAPAN   54422

GERMANY   17752

KOREA, SOUTH   20201

TAIWAN   12575

CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF   9004

UNITED KINGDOM   7167

Origin 2018:

JAPAN 49702

KOREA, SOUTH 21817

GERMANY 17326

CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 16759

TAIWAN 11742

UNITED KINGDOM 7599

In 1995 China was not in top 20, in 2008 China was not in Top 10, in 2015 it was on 5th place with half of Germany patents, in 2018 it was close 4th after Germany, current 2019 data show China moved to 3rd place past Germany, and will be 2nd in 2020.

I just wanted to show that technologically China is in the middle of the pack of most advanced countries, about 5th place, but going up very fast.There are Achilles heel areas like semiconductors where they are 7 years behind Intel, Samsung or TSMC, but in all areas they are catching up fast. Stereotype that China is stealing and no innovation should be long gone.

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3 hours ago, Marcin said:

Number of Foreign Patents registered in US Patent Office by country in 2015, TOP COUNTRIES

Origin   2015

JAPAN   54422

GERMANY   17752

KOREA, SOUTH   20201

TAIWAN   12575

CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF   9004

UNITED KINGDOM   7167

Origin 2018:

JAPAN 49702

KOREA, SOUTH 21817

GERMANY 17326

CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 16759

TAIWAN 11742

UNITED KINGDOM 7599

In 1995 China was not in top 20, in 2008 China was not in Top 10, in 2015 it was on 5th place with half of Germany patents, in 2018 it was close 4th after Germany, current 2019 data show China moved to 3rd place past Germany, and will be 2nd in 2020.

I just wanted to show that technologically China is in the middle of the pack of most advanced countries, about 5th place, but going up very fast.There are Achilles heel areas like semiconductors where they are 7 years behind Intel, Samsung or TSMC, but in all areas they are catching up fast. Stereotype that China is stealing and no innovation should be long gone.

I'm not convinced about the not stealing part. In fact my old ASIC company had designed communications chips and cores currently standard in roughly all the world. Everyone who didn't buy the chips just licensed the cores. Except a well known Chinese company suddenly came out with their "own" design. Except it wasn't their own, they had just run with a design we'd used for a test boat (the wafers are called boats). The test code was supposed to have been protected, then destroyed, clearly it wasn't. Now there was a bug in our design, which was why we'd run the tests in the first place. We knew they'd stolen from us because they had exactly the same bug. Their production systems needed glue logic to compensate. 

Innovation is still innovation and I don't care how much a company like IBM spends, they're constantly out-innovated by smaller, more nimble competitors, who spend considerably less. 

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10 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I get the feeling Rasmus you're not a massive Trump fan 🤣🤣

That would mean going for a deal ASAP thus losing any progress. He is against an Emperor for life. 

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16 hours ago, Papillon said:

That narrows it down to half the website I believe

Made me laugh 😁

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