NY TIMES: Saudis can't depend on U.S. to protect their oil anymore . . . .

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(edited)

 .   .   .   So they are talking to their enemies. 

That's good.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/26/world/middleeast/saudi-iran-qatar-talks.html

It's about time.  Why should U.S. spend over $30 Billion a year to protect Mideast shipping lanes so Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Bahrain , etc can sell their oil and gas to China , Asia, Europe etc is all getting a little old.

U.S. citizens don't want to be in Mideast forever. It's cost the U.S. too many lives and $Triions. 

Also,  another factor forcing Mideast countries hands ,  leading to more talks less bombs is the new lower price for oil.  With the U.S. slowly pulling back the likes of Saudi Arabia and Iran can ill afford conflict as a result of their reduced funds and increased budget deficits. 

What is the U.S. responsibility.  The U.S. wants peace , of course  .  .  .  .  .  but at what cost. If the rest of the industrialised world will not put some skin in the game, why should U.S. ?  

"End of American Era in Mideast" emboldens China , Russia

https://www.ft.com/content/960b06d0-2a35-11ea-bc77-65e4aa615551

Iran , China , Russia  are planning joint navel military exercises in 2020.  Turkey agreement with Libyan Tripoli National gpvernment will cause players in the Mideast and Mediterranean trouble.   You have the Kurds conflict with Turkey . . . and then there is always Israel.

Tensions not going to  go away anytime soon. 

WHAT HAPPENS IF BRENT BENCHMARK settles between $55 to $60 a barrel. The conflicts may change from external conflicts between countries and religious factions to internal unrest. Which is just as urgent.

There is no simple solution .  Maybe Mideast adversaries talking might work ?

Edited by Jabbar
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They have never gotten along, the religion keeps them divided and it always will. I say we just need to pull out and let those cats fight it out in the sandbox. 

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(edited)

On 12/27/2019 at 5:45 PM, SERWIN said:

They have never gotten along, the religion keeps them divided and it always will. I say we just need to pull out and let those cats fight it out in the sandbox. 

If major war in ME world wide depression follows. 

 

Edited by Jabbar
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You could not be more incorrect.  

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(edited)

On 12/27/2019 at 4:46 PM, Jabbar said:

What is the U.S. responsibility.  The U.S. wants peace , of course

I presume this is a joke sir? Also you could add to the title something along the lines of ''but Saudi Arabia can rest assured they can murder American journalists with nothing done about it, so swings and roundabouts.''

On 12/27/2019 at 9:45 PM, SERWIN said:

I say we just need to pull out and let those cats fight it out in the sandbox. 

And yet you have not for around 30 years sir? 

Edited by Papillon
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5 hours ago, Papillon said:

I presume this is a joke sir? Also you could add to the title something along the lines of ''but Saudi Arabia can rest assured they can murder American journalists with nothing done about it, so swings and roundabouts.''

And yet you have not for around 30 years sir? 

So, we should continue forever?

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(edited)

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, we should continue forever?

 

11 hours ago, Papillon said:

I presume this is a joke sir? Also you could add to the title something along the lines of ''but Saudi Arabia can rest assured they can murder American journalists with nothing done about it, so swings and roundabouts.''

And yet you have not for around 30 years sir? 

Peace on Earth

GET OUT OF MIDEAST

Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

15 hours ago, Papillon said:

I presume this is a joke sir? Also you could add to the title something along the lines of ''but Saudi Arabia can rest assured they can murder American journalists with nothing done about it, so swings and roundabouts.''

And yet you have not for around 30 years sir? 

Saudi Arabia is not the U.S. friend

Trump thinks if he is nice to MBS he will deliver Israeli peace accord.

Never gonna happen.  

U.S. should spend that $30 Billion every year on domestic infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, low income housing)  .  .  .  .   not protecting Mideast oil shipments to China. 

So the Russians and Chinese have more control over Mideast.  Big deal. 

Let Merkel deal with it. She doesn't need U.S.  She laughs at Trump.  

While he's at it he should also a reciprocal 25% tariff on Germany cars, trucks and car parts.  

 

Edited by Jabbar
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8 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, we should continue forever?

Of course not sir, you should have left them to it years ago as suggested.

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53 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Of course not sir, you should have left them to it years ago as suggested.

"years ago" U.S. needed their oil.

Now Europe and China need their oil .  

 

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On 12/28/2019 at 12:46 AM, Jabbar said:

 Why should U.S. spend over $30 Billion a year to protect Mideast shipping lanes so Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Bahrain , etc can sell their oil and gas to China , Asia, Europe etc is all getting a little old.

Iran , China , Russia  are planning joint navel military exercises in 2020.  Turkey agreement with Libyan Tripoli National gpvernment will cause players in the Mideast and Mediterranean trouble.   You have the Kurds conflict with Turkey . . . and then there is always Israel.

There is no simple solution .  Maybe Mideast adversaries talking might work ?

Sometimes...... 

solve problem.jpg

Edited by specinho
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(edited)

4 hours ago, Jabbar said:

"years ago" U.S. needed their oil.

Well atleast you can openly admit what you were doing there I guess sir. Now you have lots of oil of your own so you want peace in the ME, or don't care what happens there deep down. What heroic morals. 

Edited by Papillon

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There is a saying in the region, "We will fight them to the last American soldier." No country should have that attitude, even if the USA encouraged it for years.

KSA's military is expensive toys/weapons, but not an internal disciplined fighting force. Heck, the Houthies are better on the ground and are a rag tag force, but they are fierce. There are disciplined palace guards and such, but that's to protect the monarchy, not the country. The monarchy knows the history of strong militaries in the region, eventually a general throws a coup.

If someone truly threatened attacked the KSA the USA would intervene and protect them. The Abqaiq mess, how was that not totally asked for my the Saudis themselves with their adventurism in Qatar and Yemen. I wonder how that moat is going? Perhaps MBS has learned not to trust the whispers coming from MBZ (UEA). Trump deserves credit, absolutely, for not attacking Iran.

Maybe MBS didn't appreciate the transactional nature to Trump, but clearly Trump's willingness to tear up a deal suggests he wasn't a fit for KSA in reality. I was around during Trump's visit and the deals were made up whooy on the spot, people scrambling to find something to sign to old deals were printed up on new pieces of paper. The Kushner peace plan was always something only an unknowing complete outsider could think might work. Kushner's OK to MBS on grabbing Khashoggi was naive, flat wrong, and put both parties in a bad spot. Like it or not, Palestinians need to be acknowledged, and that is not going to happen. And many Palestinians still won't acknowledge Israel's basic right to exist. So stuck in hate hate land. 

Don't be too quick to blame Shia/Sunni. Intermarriages were common in Iraq. Not so much in KSA, but that's because they keep to the tribe/family, with marrying a cousin as the normal way to go. Weaponizing the Islamic divisions wasn't common place 100 years ago. There is still plenty of tribalism to prevent trust. Does much of the region fear Iran because of the historical Persian empires, yes. I suspect they also remember the Ottoman empire with trepidation. 

The sooner outside parties keep offering arms and assistance, the more likely they won't fight it out. In asymmetric warfare Iran is exceptional, and the USA is poor at it. 

And don't write them all off. Many of us have met wonderful Iranians, and also many wonderful Saudis. My life is richer in ways far beyond the checkbook for living there. How the rank and file can create change, I don't know. But I now enabling their war mongering makes it worse.

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(edited)

On 12/29/2019 at 8:04 PM, Papillon said:

Well atleast you can openly admit what you were doing there I guess sir. Now you have lots of oil of your own so you want peace in the ME, or don't care what happens there deep down. What heroic morals. 

"what you were doing there.  .  "

The U.S. was there , not me. 

Heroic morals .  Are you french ? French Canadian ? Same thing.  

No country has cherished the White Flag of Surrender as the French. They don't know the meaning of either " "heroic" or "morals" . 

We in the Mideast have played the U.S. for almost 100 years.  Living off the oil money that U.S. has paid us. The riches were wasted on Dictators, royals and Republican Guard.  Not the people or economy. Now ME must deal with reality.  

Since the Iran drone attack Trump sent has sent over 14000 new troops to mideast, aircraft carriers, military equipment and additional advanced patriot missile defense systems and technicians to man them.  

What Trump wants more than anything is an Israeli peace agreement for his hapless son-in-law Jared.  Trump believes MBS is only one that can deliver it.  MBS knows it will never happen, just playing Trump as usual.  

The UAE pulled out of Yemen after Iran sent a drone (small one) to one of their airports.  No big damage . . . just a message to back down.  The message was If UAE and Saudis want a war Iran could level their beautiful cities, luxurious resorts, oil facilities and decadent palaces in under 24 hours.  

ME not a bunch of mud huts, tents and camels like 100 years ago. A lot to lose now. 

It's about time the ME countries grow up and join the 21st century. 

Their Cash Cow is dying. 

 

Edited by Jabbar

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(edited)

It was sarcasm sir, I fear you are missing my point about morals or heroism.

You are from the Middle East then, yes? Whereabouts if I may ask? 

And I am half English, half Japanese. No French bones at all. 

Edited by Papillon
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14 hours ago, Papillon said:

It was sarcasm sir, I fear you are missing my point about morals or heroism.

You are from the Middle East then, yes? Whereabouts if I may ask? 

And I am half English, half Japanese. No French bones at all. 

Sir

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It will not happen again with regard to yourself Jabbar, you clearly do not understand politeness and it annoys you. What a wonderful world we live in. 

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5 hours ago, Papillon said:

It will not happen again with regard to yourself Jabbar, you clearly do not understand politeness and it annoys you. What a wonderful world we live in. 

Yes Sir

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5 hours ago, Papillon said:

It will not happen again with regard to yourself Jabbar, you clearly do not understand politeness and it annoys you. What a wonderful world we live in. 

Your overuse of "sir" shows your British arrogance, sense of privilege and superiority.  

It's annoying  .  .  .  not polite

Talk normal. 

Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

Politeness to others is now arrogance is it? If privileged (which you spelt wrongly) I would expect to be called sir, not say it to others. Do you understand how language works? This is yet another case of users typing away without having any idea what they are talking about, or re-reading their own words before hitting ''submit reply''. You seem a rather angry young man in all honesty and have quoted a sentence where I made a point of not saying ''sir'' to you. Apart from all of these things, you may have a point somewhere. 

''Talk normal'' - that rather says it all. Wonderful English. You are criticising others' words when you come out with beauties like this? Not annoying or polite, just ignorant. 

I agree with superior however. From what I have observed of your comments this is not a difficult feat though is it? 

Edited by Papillon
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On 12/29/2019 at 9:10 AM, Jabbar said:

"years ago" U.S. needed their oil.

Now Europe and China need their oil .  

 

I agree, we don't need their oil so let them figure out how to defend that area. We need to get out of there and let the games begin....

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14 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

Talk normal. 

As in

"Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe."

And through the looking glass it is clear that Iran has the ability to destroy or disable any vessel in the Persian Gulf at will and the only advantage of military escorts would be in determining it was actually Iran who was responsible although even in this regard the last effort set "fake news" to the fore.

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On 12/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, Jabbar said:

If major war in ME world wide depression follows. 

 

I am curious as to why, we don't need their oil, and the other countries that do would be only too happy to provide the coverage over that area they felt was needed, or they wouldn't be getting the resources they need. We have enough of our own oil to get by, and other, much closer and more stable sources for any extra. China needs that oil so let China build a navy defense force and send them over to "keep the peace". And if they are at war with each other, it opens up possibilities for a lot of oil exporting from around the world that has been ignored until then. Let a couple of VLCC's get sunk and they'll figure it out over there....

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On 12/29/2019 at 4:26 PM, Jabbar said:

What Trump wants more than anything is an Israeli peace agreement for his hapless son-in-law Jared.  Trump believes MBS is only one that can deliver it.  MBS knows it will never happen, just playing Trump as usual.  

The UAE pulled out of Yemen after Iran sent a drone (small one) to one of their airports.  No big damage . . . just a message to back down.  The message was If UAE and Saudis want a war Iran could level their beautiful cities, luxurious resorts, oil facilities and decadent palaces in under 24 hours.  

Trump is too smart to believe there is an Israeli peace agreement to be made. But there is money to be made.

The UAE absolutely depends on Iran who is a very large official trading partner. And UAE is also a major way Iran gets around SWIFT sanctions. Transactions are logically performed in the UAE, but the physical transaction, sale of goods, is in Iran. 

MBZ is happy to see MBS waste resources.

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On 12/29/2019 at 6:51 AM, Jabbar said:

Saudi Arabia is not the U.S. friend

Trump thinks if he is nice to MBS he will deliver Israeli peace accord.

Never gonna happen.  

U.S. should spend that $30 Billion every year on domestic infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, low income housing)  .  .  .  .   not protecting Mideast oil shipments to China. 

So the Russians and Chinese have more control over Mideast.  Big deal. 

Let Merkel deal with it. She doesn't need U.S.  She laughs at Trump.  

While he's at it he should also a reciprocal 25% tariff on Germany cars, trucks and car parts.  

 

That is not a good analysis. 

Letting China and Russia join Iran and form a coalition to control the sea lanes to Asia is not in the playbook. US is trying to assemble a SE Asian military alliance to keep China from having any naval ambitions outside the S China sea. Remember that the US' had fought WWII Japan, Korea, Vietnam, in order to protect over a century's interests in the SE Asian corner down to Australia. This much blood spilled is not a business calculation, it is an existential one. 

Letting the Russia/China axis powers have an oil resource that they control (beyond Russia's is absolutely not something the US can allow, Trump or not. That they would use Iran as their base and local proxy is beyond intolerable and amounts to a declaration of war all on its own. 

Go look up Stratfor's George Friedman for perspective. Contrast that to his protege's, Peter Zeihan's analysis which is akin to Trump's thinking. The China/Russia alliance sucked in by the vacuum Zeihan predicts for the Gulf is not a scenario the US will pick as a solution. That is because it means abandoning the SE Asian shipping lane to Chinese control. Which is THE focus of the administration and Republican Neocons. 

The middle east isn't somewhere the US wants to be, it is somewhere it has to be because anyone else having it means they have the world's cheapest oil, thus capable of winning any economic competition, even if the US had 200 year's worth of shale. 

I don't know how the US can intervene in Venezuella, but it has to be done one way or another. The new China Russia axis can not be allowed their resource grab that would create a new communist empire.

 

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