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Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3046175/tsai-ing-wen-says-beijing-must-face-reality-taiwan-independent

Tsai Ing-wen President of Taiwan, tells Beijing that the must face reality. Taiwan is already independent. She was just re-elected by a wide majority. China is already under scrutiny for its pressure on Hong Kong and the reaction there.

How will this effect the reputation of China and its worldwide plans? RCW

Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected as president of Taiwan in a landslide victory on Saturday. Photo: EPA-EFE

 

 

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(edited)

Ron, the prospects of Taiwan are really gloomy. It is a real human tragedy that over 20 million people, de facto independent, democratic state are doomed to be part of Chinese dictatorship in the future.

Taiwan is already independent and still independent.

China is playing the long game, want to "reunite" Taiwan before 2049.

Strategic location of Taiwan, the military threat that independent Taiwan possesses to China, makes future independence of the country not possible.

About 0.5 billion Chinese live within 600 miles of its shores.

No matter what China will take Taiwan under its control, in peaceful way or by force.

At the moment China wants to keep the issue low profile, till it gets stronger, trying to take over island in economic terms, and is successfull in this pursuit.

On the other hand, United States want to keep the issue hot, by different and numerous provocations.

China is reacting in a very toned way, they need time.

 

Edited by Marcin2
typo
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28 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Ron, the prospects of Taiwan are really gloomy. It is a real human tragedy that over 20 million people, de facto independent, democratic state are doomed to be part of Chinese dictatorship in the future.

Taiwan is already independent and still independent.

China is playing the long game, want to "reunite" Taiwan before 2049.

Strategic location of Taiwan, the military threat that independent Taiwan possesses to China, makes future independence of the country not possible.

About 0.5 billion Chinese live within 600 miles of its shores.

No matter what China will take Taiwan under its control, in peaceful way or by force.

At the moment China wants to keep the issue low profile, till it gets stronger, trying to take over island in economic terms, and is successfull in this pursuit.

On the other hand, United States want to keep the issue hot, by different and numerous provocations.

China is reacting in a very toned way, they need time.

 

We can give Taiwan a nuclear arsenal and solve the problem, though that is highly unlikely. 

But the Chinese long game is not within the reach of their economy. I think they miscalculated. I don't know that they can keep juggling their bank problems any longer. As pointed out elsewhere, the banks are acting like the global banking system post Lehman's collapse. 

The US will be growing its presence on the periphery of the S.China sea. And I believe Indonesia, Philippines along with Taiwan Japan and Korea and eventually Thailand and vietnam. will be in position to control China's physical access to imports and markets. That should keep China's Taiwan ambitions at bay. I am assuming US forces would be placed upfront so as to be a tripwire like they are in Poland and Romania. 

As to provocations, those are largely Chinese naval and air force actions. 

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”China is reacting in a very toned way, they need time.”

Are you suggesting that simply because the Chinese want something that the rest of the world should simply sit back and give them time?

 

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5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

”China is reacting in a very toned way, they need time.”

Are you suggesting that simply because the Chinese want something that the rest of the world should simply sit back and give them time?

 

But what you can do ? There is no scenario, even damn crazy scenario (apart from nuke arming of Taiwan as @0R0 suggested, but Americans would not die in nuclear war over this small island) in which China will not eventually get Taiwan, in 15 or 25 years, peacefully or by force. It is a huge human tragedy, because China is dictatorship and Taiwan democracy.

Edited by Marcin2
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Again, just because China desires Taiwan and the entire South China Sea, does the rest of the world just sit idly by and let them do what they want simply because they are a dictatorship?

Just imagine what the world would look like today if we had taken the same approach to Hitler’s Germany or Hirohito’s Japan.

Doing nothing is the lazy man’s way out.

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13 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The US will be growing its presence on the periphery of the S.China sea. And I believe Indonesia, Philippines along with Taiwan Japan and Korea and eventually Thailand and vietnam. will be in position to control China's physical access to imports and markets. That should keep China's Taiwan ambitions at bay. I am assuming US forces would be placed upfront so as to be a tripwire like they are in Poland and Romania. 

As to provocations, those are largely Chinese naval and air force actions. 

US does not have enough major combatants. Every US vessel will be trailed by 3-4 smaller but capable Chinese navy ships each armed with anti-ship missiles (They have 70+80+30=180 such smaller ships + Chinese Coast Guard dedicated for South & East China Sea) . It is Chinese Navy that are in a largest naval buildup since: 1941-1945 US Naval buildup during WW2.

All the coutries you mentioned are very closely economically attached to China. The conflicts about these small islands, in total 1,000 acres are not worth these economic benefits. All of them are Chinese neighbours, and US is a stranger from different hemisphere.

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2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Just imagine what the world would look like today if we had taken the same approach to Hitler’s Germany or Hirohito’s Japan.

Germany and Japan were losers since the first minute of war.

Technically they could not win against the industrial capacity of the United States, the moment United States joined war.

Their only gamble was that US is too self concerned, isolated after Great Crisis and would not care about Europe or East Asia.

But they were wrong.

This is very sad truth, but truth, world can only sit idly and watch, but not comment.

Of course US could and will comment, but China waits for the time when it will not be important.

When the country is large and strong enough, it creates sphere of influence around its borders. China is doing the same, although it is difficult as US since Obama concentrates major popwers in this area.

US sphere of influence is large, it is North and Central America. Could I have Chinese naval base in Havana ? That is why China will take over Taiwan and kick US troops out of Asia (apart from Middle East), this is natural.

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Try explaining all this to Malaysia and Indonesia who are presently confronting China for escorting fishing fleets with Chinese Coast Guard vessels in disputed waters.

How these waters can be disputed is beyond me. A cursory look at the map shows them to be far, far away from the Chinese mainland.

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You are changing your tune!

Originally you said there were no viable options since China was a dictatorship. When I brought up Germany and Japan in WW2 you simply dismiss this saying they were doomed from the start.,I do not think the Soviets or the UK would have agreed with you.

If you believe that the world should let China do anything and everything they desire, then we will need to agree to disagree.

I am off this thread as of now...

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You are changing your tune!

Originally you said there were no viable options since China was a dictatorship. When I brought up Germany and Japan in WW2 you simply dismiss this saying they were doomed from the start.,I do not think the Soviets or the UK would have agreed with you.

If you believe that the world should let China do anything and everything they desire, then we will need to agree to disagree.

I am off this thread as of now...

China is too strong and still getting stronger (you know country size of continent, 1.4 billion people, country on the verge of being developed). Germany and Japan in 1940s were 2 middle countries, without natural resources, but with great ambitions and dreams. Their comprehensive national power was too small from the beginning in order to win WW2.

It is all coherent, size matters, and ... the nukes.

Edited by Marcin2
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2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Again, just because China desires Taiwan and the entire South China Sea, does the rest of the world just sit idly by and let them do what they want simply because they are a dictatorship?

Just imagine what the world would look like today if we had taken the same approach to Hitler’s Germany or Hirohito’s Japan.

Doing nothing is the lazy man’s way out.

Tibet, Nuff said

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2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

US does not have enough major combatants. Every US vessel will be trailed by 3-4 smaller but capable Chinese navy ships each armed with anti-ship missiles (They have 70+80+30=180 such smaller ships + Chinese Coast Guard dedicated for South & East China Sea) . It is Chinese Navy that are in a largest naval buildup since: 1941-1945 US Naval buildup during WW2.

All the coutries you mentioned are very closely economically attached to China. The conflicts about these small islands, in total 1,000 acres are not worth these economic benefits. All of them are Chinese neighbours, and US is a stranger from different hemisphere.

TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. The greatest "fab" on the planet, currently building 7 nanometer (feature size) chips. The best Intel can manage in their own state of the art fab is 14nm. 

EVERYONE not named Intel is using TSMC to fabricate their chips. That includes Cisco, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, IBM (used to have their own fab, gave up), ARM and on and on. The chips Huwai can't buy from the US are manufactured by TSMC right across the strait. 

TSMC may be the flashpoint for WWIII. All those smart weapons have TSMC chips inside. 

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4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. The greatest "fab" on the planet, currently building 7 nanometer (feature size) chips. The best Intel can manage in their own state of the art fab is 14nm. 

EVERYONE not named Intel is using TSMC to fabricate their chips. That includes Cisco, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, IBM (used to have their own fab, gave up), ARM and on and on. The chips Huwai can't buy from the US are manufactured by TSMC right across the strait. 

TSMC may be the flashpoint for WWIII. All those smart weapons have TSMC chips inside. 

Which is why I think the US deployment is happening. At least in small part. 

We will have to see if US and Taiwan manage to move some production and R&D assets onto US shores or disperse them further into say Thailand etc. The recent elections indicate a detachment of Taiwan from interaction with China is in the works. A financial crisis in China, which has been building pressure for over a decade (interbank lending is 150 Trillion Yuan https://tradingeconomics.com/china/loans-to-banks) and their interbank lending market is already in disarray since September 19 should make a decision to leave China an easy one for Taiwan. .I don't know how the manage to keep this one afloat this time. The distress signals are coming more often and more intensely. For China's sake I very much hope they have installed a backup financial system, because what they have right now looks like it is on the verge of imploding or requiring an enormous central bank money printing campaign to keep it running - which would be highly inflationary in a country with nearly triple M2 to GDP than in OECD.  . 

9034844cad320b2534ea71e23e36ad0c

I don't expect they can let this continue, so their attempts to draw down reserves last year have to be abandoned, as that is likely what has caused the disarray. 

 

@Marcin2, Regarding the nature of the deployment, it is heavy Navy forces outside the S China sea and hardened air resources and small navy forces on land throughout the periphery islands.It is still in the works and I don't think it will be US forces alone. Japan has already committed. 

You are viewing the tailing of China ships around US ships as an advantage to China as imposing a threat. I expect that it is going to act as a tripwire for a total war to remove China from the sea and then economically dismantle China. The US has bled to hold onto its role in the region for well over a century. Surrounding US Navy groups with matchstick Chinese navy ships only means that at the first shot they will all be sunk. Not necessarily by the US ships they are tailing. 

China PBOC balance sheet Dec 2019, 5 year view.gif

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9 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. The greatest "fab" on the planet, currently building 7 nanometer (feature size) chips. The best Intel can manage in their own state of the art fab is 14nm. 

EVERYONE not named Intel is using TSMC to fabricate their chips. That includes Cisco, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, IBM (used to have their own fab, gave up), ARM and on and on. The chips Huwai can't buy from the US are manufactured by TSMC right across the strait. 

TSMC may be the flashpoint for WWIII. All those smart weapons have TSMC chips inside. 

That is exactly what I was telling in the other thread unaware of this opinion.

Whoever stops access of the other side to TSMC foundries will start the war.

US by preventing Huawei access to Kirin processors or China preventing Apple access to A11 or DOD access to Chips for F35.

I was signalling that US pressures Taiwan to stop supply for Huawei, it would be strengthened by 10% US technology content  ban.

US also wants TSMC to reroute DOD production to US.

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On 1/18/2020 at 10:39 AM, Ward Smith said:

TSMC may be the flashpoint for WWIII. All those smart weapons have TSMC chips inside. 

I beg differ there. A lot of DOD chips are not state of the art, and others which are, not utilizing silicon as a substrate, which leaves TSMC out. They are focussed on contract manufacturing for the fabless semiconductor companies. Folks like Sandia Labs and Northrup run smaller fabs, specialized in chips for military applications.

The McCain act of a few years back is driving a lot on "can't use China" in the supply chain. But chips aren't the challenge as much as rare earth metals. This initiative well predates Trump.

Last week I visited a factory that has a small army of engineers trying to develop congruent magnetic fields, driven by the need to avoid rare earth materials only procured from China. In some cases changing from one rare earth material to another is a hell of a challenge.

TSMC does have plants in China as well, just not state of the art 300mm.

There are also significant disadvantages for utilizing sub 35 micron technology in many applications. It just doesn't work very well for analogue chips, which are advantageous in many applications. A modern phone has 200+ chips in it, but only a couple are close to leading edge technology.

The US is actively working to ensure China doesn't get state of the art steppers. That is a good thing.

Folks like Apple are getting into designing their own state of the art chips, which won't made in China. They know darn well the risks of China. Facebook now has their own fab and is designing their own chips for AI. The bleeding edge tech companies might not give a hoot about China per say geopolitically, but they do lose sleep over being copied and losing their edge and profit margins. The notion of insourcing chip design and manufacturing is quite the change, and driven by protecting their IP.

 

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35 minutes ago, John Foote said:

I beg differ there. A lot of DOD chips are not state of the art, and others which are, not utilizing silicon as a substrate, which leaves TSMC out. They are focussed on contract manufacturing for the fabless semiconductor companies. Folks like Sandia Labs and Northrup run smaller fabs, specialized in chips for military applications.

The McCain act of a few years back is driving a lot on "can't use China" in the supply chain. But chips aren't the challenge as much as rare earth metals. This initiative well predates Trump.

Last week I visited a factory that has a small army of engineers trying to develop congruent magnetic fields, driven by the need to avoid rare earth materials only procured from China. In some cases changing from one rare earth material to another is a hell of a challenge.

TSMC does have plants in China as well, just not state of the art 300mm.

There are also significant disadvantages for utilizing sub 35 micron technology in many applications. It just doesn't work very well for analogue chips, which are advantageous in many applications. A modern phone has 200+ chips in it, but only a couple are close to leading edge technology.

The US is actively working to ensure China doesn't get state of the art steppers. That is a good thing.

Folks like Apple are getting into designing their own state of the art chips, which won't made in China. They know darn well the risks of China. Facebook now has their own fab and is designing their own chips for AI. The bleeding edge tech companies might not give a hoot about China per say geopolitically, but they do lose sleep over being copied and losing their edge and profit margins. The notion of insourcing chip design and manufacturing is quite the change, and driven by protecting their IP.

Most of what you're saying is correct, but the "Industry" doesn't consider TSMC to be "China". They've scaled back their mainland plants due to rampant Theft by the Chinese. They've got a plant in Camas, Washington for the RAD hardened unsophisticated parts. Just because they can build 5nm parts doesn't mean they must. The same fab is capable of multiple different designs, it's just setup and scheduling. 

My previous company was one of many fabless semiconductor firms out there. In fact the vast majority of chips are designed by a fabless firm, then sent to TSMC and a small handful of others. It doesn't matter if Apple designs its own chip, they're not going to build it. 

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Just because Taiwan thinks it is independent, that doesn't make it so.   Not too long ago a block of Southern US states thought they were independent too.  I agree with the other writer that China is playing the long game.  They can out wait the US.  When the US loses it's economic and military might, Taiwan will once again be united back into the Chinese fold.

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How can you possibly equate the American Civil War to what happened in China? Prior to 1860 the US was already a unified country and a viable union up to that point.

China, on the other hand, was never a ‘union’. The Nationalists and the Communists fought each other as much as the Japanese in WW2. It was not until after WW2 that the Communist routed the Nationalists.

The Nationalist retreated to what was then Formosa (which had never been under Communist rule) and formed their own country.

This is vastly different from a portion of a country deciding to secede from a union. 

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On 1/20/2020 at 12:56 PM, Ward Smith said:

Most of what you're saying is correct, but the "Industry" doesn't consider TSMC to be "China". They've scaled back their mainland plants due to rampant Theft by the Chinese. They've got a plant in Camas, Washington for the RAD hardened unsophisticated parts. Just because they can build 5nm parts doesn't mean they must. The same fab is capable of multiple different designs, it's just setup and scheduling. 

My previous company was one of many fabless semiconductor firms out there. In fact the vast majority of chips are designed by a fabless firm, then sent to TSMC and a small handful of others. It doesn't matter if Apple designs its own chip, they're not going to build it. 

Except for my 7 year dalliance in Saudi trying in vain to implement modern business practices at a certain now pseudo public oil company, my commercial life is in semiconductor tool business. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, they really drive the large fabs. Probably only six or so customers that matter for volume sales. But there is a large resurgence in the 60nm and higher because of analogue chips, which have fundamental advantages in certain applications. I am working on a new 150mm tool design now. Probably the first new 150mm chamber over 20 years, and the company didn't want to sell it or develope, but if the right customer asks, heck yes. Pretty sure a US based customer. The original reason for cluster tools was easier to control a smaller space. Involved in a new ALD (atomic layer deposition) project now, and for some processes, unlikely to be able to control it on 300mm, or 450mm. There is one particular chip on every smart phone nobody has figured out how to make on a larger wafer. 

TSMC does have substantial mainland footprint, they are building new 200mm fabs, but yes, they won't put state of the art there. They worry more about China than we do. Their recent elections show that too. And there is a significant must be made in the US chip business for the DOD. Tiny in comparison to what the foundries do, but it's still a big business. 

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:59 AM, 0R0 said:

We can give Taiwan a nuclear arsenal and solve the problem, though that is highly unlikely. 

But the Chinese long game is not within the reach of their economy. I think they miscalculated. I don't know that they can keep juggling their bank problems any longer. As pointed out elsewhere, the banks are acting like the global banking system post Lehman's collapse. 

The US will be growing its presence on the periphery of the S.China sea. And I believe Indonesia, Philippines along with Taiwan Japan and Korea and eventually Thailand and vietnam. will be in position to control China's physical access to imports and markets. That should keep China's Taiwan ambitions at bay. I am assuming US forces would be placed upfront so as to be a tripwire like they are in Poland and Romania. 

As to provocations, those are largely Chinese naval and air force actions. 

You advocate the US God-given right to force other countries to obey and accept increased infiltration of foreign soldiers and hardware. No mention whatsoever about whether those countries want this. Not so little consideration as even to ask these countries. No, you will put your military there and all others be damned. And you wonder why your kind is so hated in the world?  Well, when the hot war starts, I hope you will be the first to be on the front lines. Or, like your cowardly presidents, will you fake an illness to avoid duty? 

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You mean like owning the entire South China Sea, financial servitude via BRI, and things like that?

No country is FORCED to accept US forces....study your history...

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(edited)

Douglas Buckland

Saturday at 03:12 PM

Just imagine what the world would look like today if we had taken the same approach to Hitler’s Germany or Hirohito’s Japan.

Doing nothing is the lazy man’s way out.

 

On 1/18/2020 at 3:30 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

You are changing your tune!

Originally you said there were no viable options since China was a dictatorship. When I brought up Germany and Japan in WW2 you simply dismiss this saying they were doomed from the start.,I do not think the Soviets or the UK would have agreed with you.

If you believe that the world should let China do anything and everything they desire, then we will need to agree to disagree.

I am off this thread as of now...

Douglas, and all other commenters that are interested in economy of WW2.

I encourage you to read about economic reality of late 1930s and early 1940s.

Wartime GDP of the Great Powers

1938 to 1945 in International Dollars and 1990 Prices (billions)*

Country 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
USA 800 869 943 1094 1235 1399 1499 1474
UK 284 287 316 344 353 361 346 331
France 186 199 164 130 116 110 93 101
Italy 141 151 147 144 145 137 117 92
USSR 359 366 417 359 274 305 362 343
Germany 351 384 387 412 417 426 437 310
Austria 24 27 27 29 27 28 29 12
Japan 169 184 192 196 197 194 189 144
Allied/Axis GDP 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.1

5.0

Edited by Marcin2
typo
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On 1/23/2020 at 4:58 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

No country is FORCED to accept US forces....study your history...

Did Iraq invite us? Bush41s situation totally different than Bush43s.

And yes, at least pre-2000s we were typically invited though in Vietnam we invented the invite, it was a true belief in the Domino theory and that Vietnam was puppet of USSR (not a puppet of anyone as Nixon learned, the puppets were USA, China, and USSR, the Vietnamese just provided most of the bodies). I don't see how folks can argue against USA's good nature in WW2 were we even saved Uncle Joe (USSR). 

Now we did invent countries like Panama, but that sort of intervention was only in the Western Hemisphere. One of my favorite presidents, Teddy Roosevelt, was hardly shy about gunboat diplomacy, I wouldn't call that invited, just not large scale invasions, and the slightly earlier Spanish American war was a false pretense, and really an extension of the Monroe Doctrine.

I miss the Powell Doctrine.

Rule 1, don't go to war.

Rule 2, if absolutely critical to National Security do it, but go all in, make the result is absolutely certain.

You don't tiptoe into war. You win and they know they've lost before you even start because it is so overwhelming. No "appropriate response." And don't destroy stability unless you are willing to do the work or you've just made it worse. Leaving Saddam was intentional, but he was defanged from a force projection perspective. Nation building doesn't exist unless you occupy, and run the country for some time and do a McArthur Plan. 

Bush43 put the Power Doctrine in the shredder and we're still making the hole bigger. JFK, LBJ, Nixon were also quite guilty of half assed war, so not really fair to blame Bush43 as stupid and by all accounts 43 was not a student of history or war. Neither is Trump or Obama as both are repeating it. Trump in a more Nixonian fashion than Obama, but both doing/did things to make it worse, just one plays better to the home audience (Trump by far). 

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26 minutes ago, John Foote said:

Did Iraq invite us? Bush41s situation totally different than Bush43s.

And yes, at least pre-2000s we were typically invited though in Vietnam we invented the invite, it was a true belief in the Domino theory and that Vietnam was puppet of USSR (not a puppet of anyone as Nixon learned, the puppets were USA, China, and USSR, the Vietnamese just provided most of the bodies). I don't see how folks can argue against USA's good nature in WW2 were we even saved Uncle Joe (USSR). 

Now we did invent countries like Panama, but that sort of intervention was only in the Western Hemisphere. One of my favorite presidents, Teddy Roosevelt, was hardly shy about gunboat diplomacy, I wouldn't call that invited, just not large scale invasions, and the slightly earlier Spanish American war was a false pretense, and really an extension of the Monroe Doctrine.

I miss the Powell Doctrine.

Rule 1, don't go to war.

Rule 2, if absolutely critical to National Security do it, but go all in, make the result is absolutely certain.

You don't tiptoe into war. You win and they know they've lost before you even start because it is so overwhelming. No "appropriate response." And don't destroy stability unless you are willing to do the work or you've just made it worse. Leaving Saddam was intentional, but he was defanged from a force projection perspective. Nation building doesn't exist unless you occupy, and run the country for some time and do a McArthur Plan. 

Bush43 put the Power Doctrine in the shredder and we're still making the hole bigger. JFK, LBJ, Nixon were also quite guilty of half assed war, so not really fair to blame Bush43 as stupid and by all accounts 43 was not a student of history or war. Neither is Trump or Obama as both are repeating it. Trump in a more Nixonian fashion than Obama, but both doing/did things to make it worse, just one plays better to the home audience (Trump by far). 

Did Iraq like Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, N Korea, Russia, Lydia threaten the US, US allies or threaten oil flow for world commerce. You can say some of these military actions could have been managed different but the need for action was and is real. Get over it. 
I argue for a more practical policing of the world with missiles and bombs that is more budget friendly and forcing the rest of the world to pay for it. But when a country steps out of line they must be felt with. I would argue we have been to weak and that’s why these countries pull the tail of the tiger.

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