Brent Up $0.80 as Libya Oil Production Shut In

[Bob D + 272]

Libya oil production is dropping by 800 kb/d (total Libya production currently almost 1.2 MMb/d) as militia’s loyal to General Haftar have shut pipeline(s) from major inland fields to coastal ports.  Russia and Turkey have been very involved with the recent cease fire efforts and may play a role in the timing and duration of any shutdown.  Additionally, France and Italy will certainly weigh in as Total and ENI both have significant interests in Libyan oil production.

[Joseph Arsenault 0]

I faded the gap from Monday open once things cooled off for now. Closed positions yesterday once it hit support..Libya situation consolidated for now for me. Watching for nature of developments. Meanwhile API and EIA comes next

[Douglas Buckland + 5,746]

On 1/20/2020 at 10:32 AM, Bob D said:

Libya oil production is dropping by 800 kb/d (total Libya production currently almost 1.2 MMb/d) as militia’s loyal to General Haftar have shut pipeline(s) from major inland fields to coastal ports.  Russia and Turkey have been very involved with the recent cease fire efforts and may play a role in the timing and duration of any shutdown.  Additionally, France and Italy will certainly weigh in as Total and ENI both have significant interests in Libyan oil production.

What difference does this actually make if the surplus figures are correct and the world is awash in oil? Bringing this Libyan oil back on the market will certainly drive the oil price lower.

[Rob Kramer + 195]

32 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What difference does this actually make if the surplus figures are correct and the world is awash in oil? Bringing this Libyan oil back on the market will certainly drive the oil price lower.

I have no idea about physical oil sales in combination with online trading but ... if a customer is called up with a unexpected to be missed delivery and they have to scramble to buy elsewhere and if elsewhere can ship at the same time / price... all seems premium worthy is all I'm saying. And from the online aspect anything that adds volume (news) or any change in numbers (production) is worthy of moving price as there not literally trading every last barrel anyways. If the current oversupply is already "baked into" the price as it was before the outage then this would add bullish action. What is a fair price to you in today's market? Personally I'd like brent at 60$ wti at 55$ wcs at 42$ and NG at 3$ .... but all for selfish reasons . (Slowing shale + helping Canadian heavy producers + good economy for N America) ... but only for 1 yr then all oils move up 3$/yr ng can have 10c . Lol fantasy oil price .

[Douglas Buckland + 5,746]

I’d love $150/bbl oil! I’ve been out of work for four years. Anything that causes drilling to pick up (especially dirt rigs in ‘difficult’ areas) is fine by me.

Yes, entirely selfish reasoning.

[Rob Kramer + 195]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I’d love $150/bbl oil! I’ve been out of work for four years. Anything that causes drilling to pick up (especially dirt rigs in ‘difficult’ areas) is fine by me.

Yes, entirely selfish reasoning.

Lol I gotta say that would make my oil stocks go crazy ! But mabey a recession would follow