Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

19 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Until price and production coordination are implemented (currently 50 years waiting in the wings), each producer is a threat to oil markets and global economics. The coronovirus is simply one of the many trading triggers --  short term and meaningless. If you neither understand what I say nor do not accept its validity, that is OK. Don't sweat it. Just enjoy $30 oil.

So, the producers are the enemy? I think Ayn Rand quoted you in her novel. Who is John Galt anyway? 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

17 hours ago, frankfurter said:

in 2018, in USA, approximately 80,000 people died from 'flu', after infecting about 30 million. in France, about 10,000 died in 2019 from flu. India is so bad, no reliable numbers are reported, but estimates are +200,000.  world wide, the number of 'flu' deaths annually could be +1 million.   yet the WHO has NEVER declared an emergency.  even if the cases in China reach 100k and the deaths reach 5k [5%], this is still WAY below 80k in USA and +1mm in world. 

this virus outbreak has too many sinister correlations to be simple coincidence. IF this is engineered, the implications are very very dire.  only 1 country has declared China to be an enemy and only that country has the motive. research and time will tell.  

Dude, if the muricans are so brilliant and devious that they got the Chinese to create the virus and then release it against themselves, you'd better just give up right now. Can't win against that kind of genius. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, J.mo said:

Isnt that what the chinese government said a month ago? Move along, nothing to see here..

 

😄

The risk to YOU is small. 

The risk in Wuhan when they said that as hospitals were overrun was enormous. Fortunately, you are not in Wuhan. Mortality in Wuhan is at 8% by my calculation because they don't treat you at all till you are on the verge of death. 

Elsewhere, mortality is 0.16% in China so far. recoveries are 10-20 days. Mortality for treated patients should fall further as drug cocktails are already successful and are being further optimized. So if you contract the disease, which is already a microscopic probability, you are not likely to die from it if you get medical help.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

@Tom Kirkman China does not trust US, they are in hegemonic conflict , they can trade , but never trust again. They will never allow US doctors within their borders. They do not need subversion and Hong Kong like color revolution on top of epidemic.

I think the CCP has internal threats to its survival. Their now 3rd major biohazard flop, with rising food inflation, and a crude and inefficient quarantine and leaving tens of thousands to die without resources even after the big show of erecting lego assembly hospitals and airlifting doctors and nurses, it is just a matter of time till we have leaked videos of party officials found dead in front of the glass doors of their offices, and sudden crowds storming in protest of insignificant issues. 

It will start small, then after the financial crash it will rise into a real threat that requires martial law to stamp out. It is just a question of how long the CCP can keep juggling the hot potatoes in their financial system.

China WAS becoming a consumer economy in 2008. But the consumer economy crashed and Fixed asset investment rose back to 48% and remains at just under 45%. While the 2009-2011 investment produced real estate and high speed airports and roads that became occupied and used, what is being built now remains empty for prolonged periods, vacancies expand towards 25% and 2/3 of home sales are 2nd or 3rd, while prices are flat for nearly 5 years and are far above normal affordability ratios. If you deflate the reported GDP numbers to realistic levels as documented by some experts and by Prof. Xiang and others within China, then fixed asset investment remains 48% of the economy and the private consumer economy has been shrinking without the income contribution from these infrastructure and housing expenditure out of debt. 

The hegemonic conflict will drop by the wayside in China and they will focus on domestic recovery from the financial disaster they created. The CCP has already lost the trust of its Millennial generation. The distrust with the US is really a small issue now. 

The reason they are not taking in medical help from the West is fear of them reporting what they see in Wuhan hospitals. The ordinary discussions of medical professionals dealing with reality is a PR threat to the CCP. They can't arrest foreign doctors for discussing their findings like they do with domestic medical professionals. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

21 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Since the outbreak began, a number of misleading claims and hoaxes about the virus have circulated online. 

They include false conspiracy theories that the virus was created in a lab ...

 

20 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

"Most of these were personally spread by a Mr. Tom Kirkman." 

 

Dang it, you just spoiled my plans to trick people into believing the Flat Sun theory. 

 

Twitter is now banning this type ^ of disinformation meme.  Really.  I guess stupid people need to be protected by Twitter's ban on "incorrect images".

 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

34 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I think the CCP has internal threats to its survival. Their now 3rd major biohazard flop, with rising food inflation, and a crude and inefficient quarantine and leaving tens of thousands to die without resources even after the big show of erecting lego assembly hospitals and airlifting doctors and nurses, it is just a matter of time till we have leaked videos of party officials found dead in front of the glass doors of their offices, and sudden crowds storming in protest of insignificant issues. 

It will start small, then after the financial crash it will rise into a real threat that requires martial law to stamp out. It is just a question of how long the CCP can keep juggling the hot potatoes in their financial system.

China WAS becoming a consumer economy in 2008. But the consumer economy crashed and Fixed asset investment rose back to 48% and remains at just under 45%. While the 2009-2011 investment produced real estate and high speed airports and roads that became occupied and used, what is being built now remains empty for prolonged periods, vacancies expand towards 25% and 2/3 of home sales are 2nd or 3rd, while prices are flat for nearly 5 years and are far above normal affordability ratios. If you deflate the reported GDP numbers to realistic levels as documented by some experts and by Prof. Xiang and others within China, then fixed asset investment remains 48% of the economy and the private consumer economy has been shrinking without the income contribution from these infrastructure and housing expenditure out of debt. 

The hegemonic conflict will drop by the wayside in China and they will focus on domestic recovery from the financial disaster they created. The CCP has already lost the trust of its Millennial generation. The distrust with the US is really a small issue now. 

The reason they are not taking in medical help from the West is fear of them reporting what they see in Wuhan hospitals. The ordinary discussions of medical professionals dealing with reality is a PR threat to the CCP. They can't arrest foreign doctors for discussing their findings like they do with domestic medical professionals. 

I thought the previous link by Tom was short. This is the full speech: 

Secret Speech of General Chi

Quote

After the June 4 riot was suppressed, we have been thinking about how to prevent China from peaceful evolution and how to maintain the Communist Party’s leadership. We thought it over and over but did not come up with any good ideas. If we do not have good ideas, China will inevitably change peacefully, and we will all become criminals in history. After some deep pondering, we finally come to this conclusion: Only by turning our developed national strength into the force of a first striking outward – only by leading people to go out – can we win forever the Chinese people’s support and love for the Communist Party.

And…

Quote

Conventional weapons such as fighters, canons, missiles and battleships won’t do; neither will highly destructive weapons such as nuclear weapons. We are not as foolish as to want to perish together with America by using nuclear weapons, despite the fact that we have been exclaiming that we will have the Taiwan issue resolved at whatever cost. Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves. There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio-weapons have been invented one after another. Of course, we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of “cleaning up” America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country.

 

[Marcin2 + 726]

Tom, this meme was awesome. Ban of satire is a grotesque in itself, was it not real.

I hope Terry Pratchett Disc World books will not be banned they always gave me so much entertainment.

I think there should be filter at media like this relating to explicit sex materials.

You decide and click yes if: By clicking this button I acknowledge I can be subject of unrestricted materials of potencially harmful nature like: fake news, satire and stand up performances.

This should solve the problem

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I thought the previous link by Tom was short. This is the full speech: 

Secret Speech of General Chi

And…

 

Yes, that is their internal perspective, but it was never practical. They can't turn the people to an external diversion to unify them as they had attempted through the last few years and more so during the trade war. They have lost the plot in their own country. The green rot in rice paddies, swine fever, Wuhan coronavirus and now the bird flu among chickens are state failures in food and health safety. It has turned the cynical but accepting Millennial generation to seething hatred of the CCP and its puppets in the government. No statistic can hide the fact that food inflation is raging, that besides having no pork, they are running out of vegetable oils. Small business has been in slow motion collapse from manufacturing to services. Cooking up GDP numbers is not going to convince someone without a job. 

Their grotesque housing investment, privately driven, relies on much of the remaining rural population urbanizing. But it can't. It is old, and dying off at 10 million a year now, and labor productivity in agriculture is not improving so they can't send off that many people into town. Housing has been teetering on the edge of collapse for 5 years as vacancies grow (~25% now)  At some point the investors will realize that the people aren't coming any longer, it will be a cultural shock,  and they will stop buying and head to the doors to sell into a null set market.. 

These are not things you can hide in a war effort. 

They are an ossified system. Their paranoid actions on social media censorship show that their hair is burning. 

[Marcin2 + 726]

@0R0 and @Ward Smith This bio weapons conspiracy theories, make Tom Flat Earth memes so probable in comparison.

All people has very similar genomes. Genetics - the more we deep dive into this science: „ The more we know that we don’t know”

Bio weapons are potentially too self devastating to be used by anybody but terrorist organizations.

I must acknowledge I was not able to read To the end this gibberish of the lunatic general.

You are sure he was not broadcasting from the asylum together with Napoleon ?

[notsonice + 1,255]

Score another one for the Virus, increase in new cases at a new high.....On 2-2 there was 19.7 k cases in China, on 2-3 there were 23.7 k cases, a jump of 4000 in China in one day. Definitely not a sign the Chinese have the upper hand on the little evil buggers. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

@0R0 and @Ward Smith This bio weapons conspiracy theories, make Tom Flat Earth memes so probable in comparison.

All people has very similar genomes. Genetics - the more we deep dive into this science: „ The more we know that we don’t know”

Bio weapons are potentially too self devastating to be used by anybody but terrorist organizations.

I must acknowledge I was not able to read To the end this gibberish of the lunatic general.

You are sure he was not broadcasting from the asylum together with Napoleon ?

Do yourself a favor and watch the translated speech of Xi to the party plenum that elected him to permanent president. If it remids you of the lunatic claptrap of the Polish communist party under the shadow of the impending Soviet collapse then you understood it correctly.

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Score another one for the Virus, increase in new cases at a new high.....On 2-2 there was 19.7 k cases in China, on 2-3 there were 23.7 k cases, a jump of 4000 in China in one day. Definitely not a sign the Chinese have the upper hand on the little evil buggers. 

That was a delivery of test kits to Wuhan. Not new cases, but new confirmations. Occasionally they leak the number of cases "under observation" which means clinically diagnosed.  Was 43K in Hubei on Saturday..If you get a more up to date number then post it.

Last time they got a big delivery of test kits, 6k people were taken off the "observation" list and about 3k of confirmations popped up. 

[Marcin2 + 726]

About the probability of revolt in China. I would like if what 0R0 said could be truth. But i think that apart from still very high results in opinion polls CCP controls every citizen in real time. I would be gross but they could tell you how often you used toilet last year, or just on Sundays, provided that you had mobile with yourself.

In US the same.

The historical data about each citizen are kept indefinitely.

Cost of 1 TB is about 100 dollars. It is enough to have 10 GB about each citizen each year. Detailed activities, 30 MB of data about YOU each and every day.

This is possible I do not know if it is 1GB or 10 GB about each citizen a day, but authorities certainly know much more about you than you do.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

About the probability of revolt in China. I would like if what 0R0 said could be truth. But i think that apart from still very high results in opinion polls CCP controls every citizen in real time. I would be gross but they could tell you how often you used toilet last year, or just on Sundays, provided that you had mobile with yourself.

In US the same.

The historical data about each citizen are kept indefinitely.

Cost of 1 TB is about 100 dollars. It is enough to have 10 GB about each citizen each year. Detailed activities, 30 MB of data about YOU each and every day.

This is possible I do not know if it is 1GB or 10 GB about each citizen a day, but authorities certainly know much more about you than you do.

If you want to avoid surveillance you can. Look at HK. The protests continue. Lessons learned on how to circumvent facial recognition and electronic monitoring via cell phones. 

Wait and see. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

If you want to avoid surveillance you can. Look at HK. The protests continue. Lessons learned on how to circumvent facial recognition and electronic monitoring via cell phones. 

Wait and see. 

Easiest thing to do is put your cell phone in the microwave oven. Perfect little Faraday cage. Better than turning it off, because turning off cell phones "too often" is another tell to surveillance minded regimes. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

28 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

@0R0 and @Ward Smith This bio weapons conspiracy theories, make Tom Flat Earth memes so probable in comparison.

All people has very similar genomes. Genetics - the more we deep dive into this science: „ The more we know that we don’t know”

Bio weapons are potentially too self devastating to be used by anybody but terrorist organizations.

I must acknowledge I was not able to read To the end this gibberish of the lunatic general.

You are sure he was not broadcasting from the asylum together with Napoleon ?

Can't keep the lid on forever.

Remember our discussions about Iran shooting down the Ukrainian jet? I recall I nailed it immediately, but many of you folks chased your tails. Just a matter of time until we find out the truth on this one also. They're studying the hell out of this virus and finding the CRISPR markers. 

Wouldn't want to be a CCP bigwig right now. Think mobs with torches and pitchforks.  The day they order soldiers to fire on civilians and the army says, "No" is the day the CCP breathes its last. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Never mind, the cure is at hand

I'm missing @Daytrader who no doubt would complain they spelled whiskey wrong in the title …

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

22 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

They're studying the hell out of this virus and finding the CRISPR markers.

Source on that?

Even if that were true it still could have been made by someone else and/or the markers / genes made it into the virus from some other vector / accident.

Normally if you make a bio-weapon you would make yourself the cure first...

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

Source on that?

Even if that were true it still could have been made by someone else and/or the markers / genes made it into the virus from some other vector / accident.

Normally if you make a bio-weapon you would make yourself the cure first...

Not that you're some kind of bio weapon expert, but logically you'd need the disease first to be able to design the cure. Letting the disease out of the level 4 lab likely wasn't in the plan. 

Some light reading for you

In their defense, they might have been trying to create a vaccine for SARS and botched the job. 

More light reading for you

Edited February 5, 2020 by Ward Smith
Added vaccine link

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Background on using CRISPR to fight viruses

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Score another one for the Virus, increase in new cases at a new high.....On 2-2 there was 19.7 k cases in China, on 2-3 there were 23.7 k cases, a jump of 4000 in China in one day. Definitely not a sign the Chinese have the upper hand on the little evil buggers. 

Just read that the R naught for this new virus is 2.2, which means that for every sick person 2.2 will become infected--and that is much more than the SARS virus or even the "Flu of 1918" (which had an R naught of 1.8). The thing is apparently mutating daily, becoming more easily transmissible. I'm not sure the Chinese CAN gain control over this thing, with these numbers and this level of infectivity. 

Not to be a fear-monger, but, okay, here it is: China is shut down. There are 1.5 billion of them. Soon, if this keeps going at this rate, the infectivity and numbers of sick and dying will go parabolic. Nobody will want to land or dock in China. At that point their economy will crash. People are going to start getting hungry. A socioeconomic crisis is very likely upon China.

Viruses have no brain, so they depend upon DNA or RNA mutation to enhance their propagation within host DNA. It sounds as though this one is "learning" fast. 

[frankfurter + 562]

16 hours ago, GunnysGhost said:

 

To those with such a worldview,  I invite you to go stand in downtown Islamabad with a 'Gay Rights for Pakistan' sandwich board. 

Pull all the headscarves and face covers off all the women and say 'No no, your husbands don't own you, you're free as them or I"

Goodbye. 

 

such a freaking idiot.  you ever hear the phrase, when in Rome..?  why would I go to Pakistan and act contemptibly against their religion and customs?  by your admission, only a 'murcan would do this. 

[frankfurter + 562]

16 hours ago, GunnysGhost said:

When care has been given, I agree.

I just don't think its wise to take the CCP's word when as the more we know about this, the more it looks like they are covering up how long they knew, how long they reported....  they haven't been a model of trustworthiness.

Journalists on the ground are reporting that hospitals are turning away people 'unless they are dying'.  They are only admitting the critical patients, of which 414 died in Hubei so far to 327 recovered.  

I'm not saying the mortality rate is actually that high, I'm saying China's strategy is causing it to be that high. 

 

The cherry on top is that they are investigating and arresting journalists that criticize the response.  Which is of course what you do when you have nothing to hide, eh Comrades? 

 

the bigotry here is beyond astounding.  journalists arrested?  where, when?  the hospitals are over-run, so only the most critical cases can be accepted. would YOUR hospital admit you for a common cold?  even if so, would YOU want to pay for for over -subscribed and -utilised treatment?  etc, etc. 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 2/3/2020 at 8:12 AM, 0R0 said:

By now we know that the virus is an escapee from the Wuhan Biosecurity Virology Lab research center where substantial research on the subject of genetically modified coronaviruses has been published. There was plenty of suspicion that the institute was working with the PLA to build biowarfare viruses, which the HIV sequences in the Wuhan coronavirus DNA would obviously indicate was the case. Indeed, if there were such a bioweapons program in China, this was the only place it could have been happening. As per official proclamations, there definitely is a concerted bioweapons effort going on for 20 years.

Obviously, for Chinese face saving reasons, the broader internet media have been censored by the Chinese paranoid PR machine. I don't know with what threats and with what encouragement, but obviously enough to give up on good business. If Malthusian billionaires are involved either in the release or the suppression, I don't know, and I suspect it is not something they did because there is no reason for it. Global births are already down and on a downtrend, And in the key OECD+China heavy resource consumption regions, the trend is far stronger, with populations falling 30-40% by 2050. The Club of Rome projections are off because they got the demographic effects of urbanization wrong. It is simply not happening. I am certain they know that. 

Billionaires in general may have a motive to suppress news on the actual origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus, since have an interest in businesses in China on the financial side, production side, and end market side. Plenty of reasons to pressure Google and twitter etc..

But it is garbage reasoning on the billionaires' club part if that is what they are thinking. China is in the second decade of a terminal decline trend in growth that seems to have gone negative already last year, and by all financial considerations will be followed by a financial crash which will make it that much worse..How recovery proceeds will be a test of China's leadership's comprehension of  how economies work. If it were in Deng's reformist technocrat's hands there may have been an eventual rosy scenario, but those were banished from leadership by the hardliners that put up Xi Jinping at the top of a dictatorship rather than the broader technocratic oligarchy that Deng installed. 

There are plenty of Western vulture funds setting up in China to buy distressed debt and flip assets sold at "firesale" prices. I am not certain the have any advantage over locals having government favor and its printing press at their backs. 

if you KNOW, then please SHOW your irrefutable facts and sources.  

 

[frankfurter + 562]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Dude, if the muricans are so brilliant and devious that they got the Chinese to create the virus and then release it against themselves, you'd better just give up right now. Can't win against that kind of genius. 

uh, why would the Chinese release such virus against themselves?