Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

We are not modelling a bacterium in a bath of unlimited food...

Using a polynomial is a good idea:

X^C1 + C2(x) + C3

x^C1 for "exponential spread"

C2x for "people who recovered"

C3 "people who died"

Constants can be negative numbers. Exponents need not be integers.

#HighSchoolMathInCanada

Note that people who recovered are still carriers and can infect others depending on their remaining viral load.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Certainly I have no answers - I just like sharing math and science information. 

[Julio E. + 3]

LAX was near empty when I got on Southwest on a Sunday morning. Clearly everyone is spooked out by this, whether their fears are warranted or not. It's clearly effecting travel everywhere, not just to and from China.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Julio E.
previous post in wrong thread

[wrs + 893]

27 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Note that people who recovered are still carriers and can infect others depending on their remaining viral load.

That and not all people are susceptible.

Edited February 11, 2020 by wrs

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

17 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

One is that we have a global pandemic that kills up to 60,000  people. It's called the seasonal flu. It kills up to 650,000 people worldwide every year. EVERY year. Over half a million people... but it's acceptable.  The Flu is not "polemic" - single source. The flu is generalized and endemic in humans. I have to say it again ... over half a million people every year... nobody even blinks an eye. 35,000 - 70,000 Americans every year... "where are we going for lunch?" 

 

Sigh. For starters there's no way polemic means single source. That's not how language works, except when it's being bastardized by someone who doesn't understand words. The word polemic comes from the Greek word polemikos, which literally means war. Perhaps a word starting with haplo or haploid? Or we could switch to Latin, and look for words starting with uni or simplex or singular? 

Now to your second point. Half a million people might die from common influenza but more than one billion people catch it every year. Do the math, those odds aren't nearly as devastating as 2% (the minimum) through 4.9% (median) to 15% (likely, given the entire cities in quarantine) mortality rate for this disease. The doctor who was arrested and reprimanded for giving out information about this disease and who is now deceased was only 34 years old. The odds an otherwise healthy 34 year old doctor dies of common flu? Astronomically low. Those 500k per year dying of the flu are almost universally old, infirm or very young (and haven't built up immunity yet). Virology 101 this. 

You'd do well to dial down the bombast and dial up the think past.  

 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

24 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Sigh. For starters there's no way polemic means single source. That's not how language works, except when it's being bastardized by someone who doesn't understand words. The word polemic comes from the Greek word polemikos, which literally means war. Perhaps a word starting with haplo or haploid? Or we could switch to Latin, and look for words starting with uni or simplex or singular? 

Now to your second point. Half a million people might die from common influenza but more than one billion people catch it every year. Do the math, those odds aren't nearly as devastating as 2% (the minimum) through 4.9% (median) to 15% (likely, given the entire cities in quarantine) mortality rate for this disease. The doctor who was arrested and reprimanded for giving out information about this disease and who is now deceased was only 34 years old. The odds an otherwise healthy 34 year old doctor dies of common flu? Astronomically low. Those 500k per year dying of the flu are almost universally old, infirm or very young (and haven't built up immunity yet). Virology 101 this. 

You'd do well to dial down the bombast and dial up the think past.  

 

Why SARS will not return: a polemic

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC305318/

You can read it for yourself what a polemic is.

#1 - Here are the deaths by age for the flu in the U.S. 

0-4 yrs	3,678,342	(2,563,438 -7,272,693)	2,464,489	(1,695,054 – 4,904,296)	25,644	(17,871 – 50,702)	115	(0 – 367)
5-17 yrs	7,512,601	(5,899,989 – 10,199,144)	3,906,553	(3,002,375 – 5,356,724)	20,599	(16,177 – 27,965)	528	(205 – 1,392)
18-49 yrs	14,428,065	(12,258,820 – 19,396,710)	5,338,384	(4,262,260 -7,333,716)	80,985	(68,809 – 108,874)	2,803	(1,610 – 6,936)
50-64 yrs	13,237,932	(9,400,614 -23,062,957)	5,692,311	(3,895,925 – 10,028,080)	140,385	(99,691 – 244,576)	6,751	(4,244 – 15,863)
65+ yrs	5,945,690	(3,907,025 – 11,786,777)	3,329,586	(2,139,716-  6,623,717)	540,517	(355,184 -1,071,525)	50,903	(35,989 – 83,230)
All ages	44,802,629	(39,322,959 – 57,928,172)	20,731,323	(17,978,392 – 27,248,302)	808,129	(620,768 -1,357,043)	61,099	(46,404 – 94,987)

#3. So you point is that this novel virus with no vaccine, little to no medical history, in a country that has very poor medical response to these types of things kills a higher percentage of people than the flu.  OK. GREAT. 

How were you during the SARS infection...  SARS had a 15% fatality rate. Killed middle aged and young people. Yippee. 

Since you are a wordsmith you should look up the word "astronomically" what does it mean? one in a billion? one in a million... Astro is pretty big.  by my count 3,400 of 60,00 is 5.66%.  More than one in 20.  Does Astronomically Small mean 1 in 20?  Since you're a word genius. I think your understanding of what is "Astronomically small" is "Universally" wrong. Since you think that people who die from the flu are "universally" old. 

Here's the proper use for those words.... the chances of you or anyone you know, or anyone in your city catching coronavirus is ASTRONOMICALLY low.   (millions to one).  Fear by Americans of this virus are UNIVERSALLY stupid.

Conclusion:

My point is, was and will continue to be exactly the same.  This particular coronavirus is POLEMIC, it will die out by the Summer. In the U.S. - where we have social and medical systems to handle it - it will kill fewer people than falling coconuts. All the hand wringing and fear is caused by IGNORANCE and the media.  It's VOLUNTARY fear because you have nothing better to do with your life. 

You can keep pretending that coronavirus matters.  It doesn't. It's a minor blip. I guarantee the Chinese government doesn't care about the people it's killing... and I guarantee that YOU don't care about the many thousands of people who died over the past 2 months from wars, poverty, dysentery, etc.  Because this is ON TV, you think it's IMPORTANT. You conclusion regarding this virus are idiotic. But, since the flu only killed 3,400 Americans below the age of 50 every year I'm wrong. And because this novel virus killed a doctor that you heard about on CNN and the internet... no Americans, and a bunch of Chinese people (that their own government doesn't care about) ... you're a humanitarian.  YEA. 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Note that people who recovered are still carriers and can infect others depending on their remaining viral load.

My god! You people are the dumbest bunch of retards I've ever come across. Hey, anything to be afraid. If you're so gullible that you fall for all the hype and fear of this then I can reassure you... Your God will protect you... if he loves you.  If you're bad then you will die but it will be your own fault for being a sinner. So, pray!  Because if EVERYONE can be infected then your imaginary fears will be conquered by your imaginary god. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Anthony, I beg of you, tone it down, man. Look, everyone knows you're smart and have something to contribute. When you first came onto this site you were fun, wrote down your thoughts well, and I believe we all welcomed you. 

I am an old fellow, so I've nothing much to prove: I've fought most of my battles except the big one. I'm certainly not bragging, but I grew up with nothing, didn't think I had a brain, then went to college, did virus research on a PhD, went to medical school and had a career. Again, no brag, but damn it, I'm scared of this virus.  

Want to know why? I have a daughter in Washington, DC. Lots of people coming back from China and the world come into DC. This isn't a nothing when it hits your only child. You're 100% correct: this will likely play itself out (the dispositive word here is likely). On the other hand, we said the same thing about the Marburg virus--and the little bastard wound up killing 50% of the people it infected. I can assure you that if saw just one of them die of that damn thing you'd never make another comment in anger.

Please, continue to post. This is a good place for you. But you're rapidly alienating everyone on this site. For example, I've been following this guy ORO for months. He is a very bright, well-read, even-tempered fellow. Same thing for Ward Smith, and all these other folks. I don't always agree with them, but they are my part of my lifetime learning program. There are people on this site that are so much smarter than I that it's embarrassing, yet they continue to let me promulgate my strange theories and make my (sometimes stupid) comments. And I have learned a great deal from them. I can learn from you, too, and you from me, but we can't do it while trashing each other. 

Time out. Re-read your posts. Consider if this is the way you want to be known. Just think about this for a day. Then come back here and say something silly, like hey, the smartest guy on the planet is back, Yipee-Ki-Yee, mo fo. We'll give you a break. Okay? 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

19 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

My god! You people are the dumbest bunch of retards I've ever come across. Hey, anything to be afraid. If you're so gullible that you fall for all the hype and fear of this then I can reassure you... Your God will protect you... if he loves you.  If you're bad then you will die but it will be your own fault for being a sinner. So, pray!  Because if EVERYONE can be infected then your imaginary fears will be conquered by your imaginary god. 

Kindly give us dumb retards a few minutes to come back with a snappy comeback.  It will take a few minutes, because er, we are dumb and retarded.

 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Kindly give us dumb retards a few minutes to come back with a snappy comeback.  It will take a few minutes, because er, we are dumb and retarded.

 

wait... i see something in the background... oh no it's a Coronavirus, Duck!

When I say idiots I don't mean that ... rhetorical... I mean it literally. You can listen to Dr. Sanjay Gupta answer questions live on CNN such as... when someone dies of the coronoa virus does the virus die with them or does it keep living?  Idiots have been watching too many Alien movies. But don't worry there are so many idiots that it's impossible for one idiot to stand out. 

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-11-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Edited February 11, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[0R0 + 6,251]

18 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

My god! You people are the dumbest bunch of retards I've ever come across. Hey, anything to be afraid. If you're so gullible that you fall for all the hype and fear of this then I can reassure you... Your God will protect you... if he loves you.  If you're bad then you will die but it will be your own fault for being a sinner. So, pray!  Because if EVERYONE can be infected then your imaginary fears will be conquered by your imaginary god. 

That was a recent published finding. Not yet quantified.

For the record. It frightens me as to Chinese people and their hysteria dominated CCP response, more concerned with PR than with curing caring or even allowing food in for the ill. Their "treatment" "centers" are cross contamination farms with no care or consideration of the "patients" incarcerated there. They might as well call them concentration camps.

Yes, the flu can have 7% mortality per diagnosed case among octogenarians. 

The mortality on the official numbers is 2.3%, but the disease is slow, so you need to look at critical patients as dying, in which case the official numbers indicate a 12% overall mortality, and if you include 1/2 of the "serious" condition patients, then 15-16% should be the mortality - without treatment. Not just among octogenarians but overall. 

If this were a "flu" in its mortality and length of illness then they would never have quarantined anyone nor had flooded overwhelmed hospitals and dead bodies on the street. Their official numbers are at best lipstick on a pig of a disease. 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

That was a recent published finding. Not yet quantified.

For the record. It frightens me as to Chinese people and their hysteria dominated CCP response, more concerned with PR than with curing caring or even allowing food in for the ill. Their "treatment" "centers" are cross contamination farms with no care or consideration of the "patients" incarcerated there. They might as well call them concentration camps.

Yes, the flu can have 7% mortality per diagnosed case among octogenarians. 

The mortality on the official numbers is 2.3%, but the disease is slow, so you need to look at critical patients as dying, in which case the official numbers indicate a 12% overall mortality, and if you include 1/2 of the "serious" condition patients, then 15-16% should be the mortality - without treatment. Not just among octogenarians but overall. 

If this were a "flu" in its mortality and length of illness then they would never have quarantined anyone nor had flooded overwhelmed hospitals and dead bodies on the street. Their official numbers are at best lipstick on a pig of a disease. 

I agree that the Chinese government response shows what we already knew about the Chinese government.. they don't value individuals. Concentration camps are the best word for it. And there are no true personal liberties in China.

I'm not sure why it frightens you... do you live in China? Do you think the Chinese form of military medicine is coming to your town? It's certainly sad for the Chinese, but they had no choice on where they were born just like you and I didn't. The fact of the matter is that we are all born where we are all born and we all generally think where we are born is "right" and generally "good" up until the moment when they are cramming us, personally, into the back of a van to drag us off someplace.

If Chinese people saw the epidemic of Americas old people living at home with no one around they would be appalled. If they say all the American elderly who have their children visit 3 times a year - assuming they aren't already shoved in a nursing home they wouldn't be able to understand it. So there are are epidemics here as well.  They aren't a virus, but we have our own sicknesses that we are immune to seeing.

Do you think the concentration camps could happen here? What do you think would happen in the U.S. if an entire city of 11 million people had a virus like this spreading in it.  It's hard to find a city of 11 million in the U.S. There are only two metro areas in the U.S. with more than 10 million people - LA and NY City. Can you imagine if tens of thousands of cases in LA... what would happen.  What would the government do?  Would it jam people into the back of vans?

What would the 9,990,000 people think of 10,000 people being crammed in the back of vans and being carted off? Would they cheer..  no... would they protest... no.  They would do exactly what people in China are doing... thinking "thank god it's not me."  IF the media even showed it... Would the media show it or would they say there were "isolated stories" of such and such.. nothing to worry about folks.  Just use hand sanitizer. "

The fact of the matter is that you are as free as you are allowed to be. If you're in the 9,990,000 then you're free but upset. If you're part of the 10,000 you're called "an unfortunate overreach by concerned government officials" a year after it all happened.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

Here's what's going on in Doctor's office, critical care clinics and hospitals all over America.

"Can I help you?"

 My daughter has a cough I want her tested for Coronavirus.

"Has she been to China recently?"

 No

"Have you traveled outside the country recently?"

 No

"You are an idiot, and your daughter will be raised by an idiot... go home." (that's just me fantasizing) They probably only think it, but don't say it. 

------

For the record I've been a "prepper" for over 10 years.  I have medical grade face masks on hand at all times.  I have a trauma first aid kit that I can do minor surgery with (including inject-able local anesthetic), I keep prescription flu medications, antibiotics, parasite medications, atropine injectors, IV Saline, etc. on hand. I have a year's worth of food, goats, chickens, etc. solar energy, 200 gallons of gasoline on hand, 500 gallons of propane, wood burning heat and military grade weapons (and experience). 

So I'm a professional at over-reacting... and I think the corona-virus is over-hyped. But if it isn't I have the luxury of not having to go to work if I don't want to (because everything I own is paid for - house, cars, tractor, etc.) and I can go at least 6 months with no intake of anything but water because I only keep about 500 gallons of potable water on hand. I would need the water to keep flowing or I would need it rain. 

Here's a tip if you are worried about this coronavirus... if you aren't already prepared then it's too late. You could have gotten Tamiflu (or generic) from KiwiDrug.com in New Zealand shipped to you... you COULD have in December.  Now, I would guess they are completely overloaded with orders. You Could have gotten face masks.. .but they are all sold out. The problem that occurs when the EMERGENCY occurs is that everyone does the same thing at the same time.  The systems get overloaded and you die. The last bad flu season all the local drug stores ran out of Tamiflu. I had 5 boxes of it in my cabinet. So, if you really concerned about something like this happening then prepare for it when it ISN'T happening so you will not have to worry if it does happen. 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[0R0 + 6,251]

40 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

So I'm a professional at over-reacting... and I think the corona-virus is over-hyped. But if it isn't I have the luxury of not having to go to work if I don't want to (because everything I own is paid for - house, cars, tractor, etc.) and I can go at least 6 months with no intake of anything but water because I only keep about 500 gallons of potable water on hand. I would need the water to keep flowing or I would need it rain. 

Good for you.

I am sorry to say that I over-identify with the woes of others. As a teen, I was depressed for weeks after the news of Cambodia's genocide by the Khmer Rouge. Perhaps it is the lot of a child of a holocaust survivor, though it was not discussed at home till we were all mature adults.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

52 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Here's a tip if you are worried about this coronavirus... if you aren't already prepared then it's too late.

Nope.  I use baking soda, as mentioned below, and it works.  Your results may vary.

 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

Good for you.

I am sorry to say that I over-identify with the woes of others. As a teen, I was depressed for weeks after the news of Cambodia's genocide by the Khmer Rouge. Perhaps it is the lot of a child of a holocaust survivor, though it was not discussed at home till we were all mature adults.

I understand, You know I'm just goofing around, right?  We all have our compulsions. Mine is being a dick. And as I just stated I'm a compulsive prepper.  I have to be prepared for everything in order to feel in control. I have taped cash to light poles in the past just in case I lose my wallet and need gas money. I still keep cash in multiple places for that reason. In my car, on a necklace around my neck and in my wallet. So, I get it.  It is sad if you internalize it. 

I think that if the same pandemic happened in a major American city and they couldn't contain it (like is happening there) I have little doubt that our government would do exactly the same thing to us. Triage ain't pretty. The Dallas Metro area (a couple hours from me) doesn't have 18,000 cops (for various agencies) just so they can have big picnics.  When Spit hits the SPAM the powers that be will do what they do "for your own good." 

It's a pretty simple process... shut down all gatherings schools, events, etc. Then control movement "Everyone needs to stay in your home!" Shut down all the stores to keep it from spreading... Lock everyone down and then do house to house testing. If you have a fever (or whatever) then they jam you in a van.  Want to fight?  You're still going. For your own safety and the safety of your family.  Where are you going?  In Dallas it would be the American Airlines Center, Dallas Cowboy's Stadium, The Fort Worth Convention Center, etc. 

I participated in a mock city-wide disaster drill in Anchorage AK (earthquake). It's just a matter of activating the plan. And if you don't think every city in America is having meeting and revising their plans based on this virus... 

the

Edited February 11, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

My point is, was and will continue to be exactly the same.  This particular coronavirus is POLEMIC,

Umm reading comprehension required. The author of the paper (which I linked to right here days ago) was himself being polemic, meaning he was telling everyone up front that it was going to be a bit of a rant, tongue in cheek. SARS was bad, but its ability to get from human to human was highly limited, hence its contagion was low. Also it made people sick right away as most diseases should. It is extremely troubling (and suspicious) that this virus can hide for up to 24 days is the latest number. 

As to fear, no I'm not personally afraid. If I go, I go. I want to be around long enough to protect my family if need be, but if everything goes into the shite I'm not interested in a Mad Max future, no thanks. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

6 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Umm reading comprehension required. The author of the paper (which I linked to right here days ago) was himself being polemic, meaning he was telling everyone up front that it was going to be a bit of a rant, tongue in cheek.

I hope we get a sarcastic vaccine.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

41 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope.  I use baking soda, as mentioned below, and it works.  Your results may vary.

 

Back when I raced road bicycles I tried bicarbonate before a few time trails.

The highest I tried was 0.1g/Kg and that was enough Arm and Hammer for me...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24155093

P.S. your body pH won't change much due to respiratory control; also CO2 is acidic so rising CO2 levels may now concern you.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

also CO2 is acidic so rising CO2 levels may now concern you.

Umm no. CO2 is decidedly not acidic. Dissolved in water CO2 becomes H2CO3 otherwise known as carbonic acid, a very weak acid BTW. 

You sure you passed basic chemistry? You keep tripping over the simplest things…

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Umm no. CO2 is decidedly not acidic. Dissolved in water CO2 becomes H2CO3 otherwise known as carbonic acid, a very weak acid BTW. 

You sure you passed basic chemistry? You keep tripping over the simplest things…

Water is everywhere.

Put a pH indicator into water and blow bubbles like a child...

Edited February 12, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Also Lewis versus Bronsted-Lowry

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

We all have our compulsions. Mine is being a dick.

And you're excellent at it! 

See, don't say you didn't get a compliment here. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9Zw0X4uJuM

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

10 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Also Lewis versus Bronsted-Lowry

 

Bone up on this, then we'll talk