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Which type of Hegemony will China follow

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(edited)

Thank you Rob for linking this article. I just read the abstract, later would read the whole so it is difficult now to have any opinion, It would depend on what are the authors definitions of 3 types.

I do not know, countries always act according to their interests.

Edited by Marcin2
typo
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(edited)

An interesting observation

Edited by Marcin2
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It will not be a Dutch Style as China does not give one damn about the liberal order.  In fact, their governance style is directly opposed, and in fact their conformist Taoism/Maoism/Confucianism culture is directly opposed.  They worship serfdom(guy at top is ~god and only power matters).  China sees itself as the center of the world and will not look for allies as they are xenophobic and blame the rest of the world for all of their problems.  Why?  China has not ruled itself for several hundred years until present government.  When not invaded by the Manchus, Mongols, Cantonese people they have been at civil war most of the time. Their history also teaches them this as well.   

They will be more like British/French empires where they go out and take.  Already doing it in Africa, but do not have the military to back them up, nor do they have the tech advantage, so until this is comes up to "par", will not be an empire.  At the same time, not like the British/French because as powerful as they were, they never had the population to back up their culture.  The Brits got lucky by finding 2 continents with essentially no one on them where they could export people(most of whom were not theirs, but everyone changes to speak English) and grow that way.  Germany tried the same thing, but there were people in the way ....

The real question is: Hydrocarbons.  WHERE do they get them.  And China cannot truly become the worlds super power as India is right next door, EU, USA are still around and China has many many decades required to build its infrastructure to come within barking distance before trying for top dog position.  USA had ~4X the population of UK, largest economy by 2X and growing in the world for a half century before two EPIC end of civilization World Wars knocked the UK off top dog spot.  If even ONE of those World Wars had not happened, I would state with a fair amount of oomph that the British Empire would still be here and be the #1 top dog. 

Give it a half century, then come back and talk...  If anything, I'll bet India has a better chance at being the worlds next #1 top dog.  its Geography is superior. 

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(edited)

An interesting observation

Edited by Marcin2
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(edited)

I do not believe in Dutch model, trade is not enough. Netherlands was never a hegemonic power, just made profitable trade for some time.

Edited by Marcin2
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10 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Dutch model exists only in the minds of the authors. Netherlands was never a hegemonic power, just made profitable trade for some time.

But does China really want to hegemon? Or do they just want to be treated as equals and make good business deals? 

 

11 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

3. Ensures access to hydrocarbons.

With the timescales we are talking for China to achieve hegemon status the world could easily have found a replacement for hydrocarbons. 

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2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

How India has better geography ?

to the North Himalaya,

to the west Pakistan: archrival, constant low intensity war. So blocking India better than Himalaya. India should sort Kashmir situation long time ago, with Pakistan

to the East jungles and high mountains of Myanmar, and Myanmar is already Chinese sphere of influence.

India has really bad political geography, most of it the fruits of its own lack of coherent strategic vision of the country.

India is the center of the world.  Controls the entire Indian ocean and therefore controls the flow of Hydrocarbons.  Ability to control Asia.  Pakistan will be consumed by India in a war.  Myanmar is behind mountains, just as Iran is.  Half of Pakistan hates Pakistan's guts and will willing, gladly join India.  They speak roughly the same language.  Just that religious problem... both India's religious problem and the Pakistan/Bangladesh problem will be solved at the same time as it always has been in India.  War, and when it settles, India will still control the Indian Ocean with the best agricultural land in the world with 1/4 of the worlds population centered right between another half of the worlds population.  The only stumbling block India has to becoming the next world super power is the religious problem as they unlike China have access to the Hydrocarbon center of the world and can feed themselves. 

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Face it kids, if history is any teacher, if China becomes ‘top dog’ the rest of the world will go down the toilet. China will strip mine every ounce of coal or any valuable mineral and send it back to China. Same with all the oil. China couldn’t care less if the rest of the planet freezes or starves to death as long as China is doing well.

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(edited)

An interesting observation

Edited by Marcin2
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3 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

@footeab@yahoo.com or I should say Nostradamus, you only tell me in which year India consumes Pakistan, we wait to that year , and then I also believe in the rest of the bullsh*t your post is more densely populated with than India itself.

No offence but you belong to category: sarcasm is the only way to argue, With people that do not use them.

Tutorial:
Example of argumentation technique:

Statement: India rules Indian Ocean ( and not US)

Arguments: I footeab know about 2 top secret Indian bases each with naval assets: 1 aircraft carier groups plus 10 destroyers, plus 10 boomers

“...India consumes Pakistan”

Are you forgetting that both are nuclear armed and that Pakistan is essentially governed by her intelligence service? There will be no ‘consuming’, it would be a nuclear holocaust! 

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(edited)

An interesting observation

Edited by Marcin2
typo

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(edited)

An interesting observation

 

Edited by Marcin2
typo

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14 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

@footeab@yahoo.com or I should say Nostradamus, you only tell me in which year India consumes Pakistan, we wait to that year , and then I also believe in the rest of the bullsh*t your post is more densely populated with than India itself.

No offence but you belong to category: sarcasm is the only way to argue, With people that do not use argument.

Tutorial:
Example of argumentation technique:

Statement: India rules Indian Ocean ( and not US)

Arguments: I footeab know about 2 top secret Indian bases each with naval assets: 1 aircraft carier group plus 10 destroyers, plus 10 boomers.

Well by golly gee garsh, we were talking about possibilities 50 years in the future, not what will happen....  Stay up with the big boys hrmm?  Only a few areas of the world have the geography to be a super power.  USA will not be the #1 superpower for ever.  India is one of the regions of the world who could be a super power. 

Take your own advice:  You asked how India would do so.  I told you.  Geographically India has a superior position.  Only problem are Muslims/Pakistan.  China on the other hand has Korea/Japan/Phillipines/Vietnam/Indonesia/Malaysia/India to worry about.  India does not give a damn about the Pacific to become a Hedgemon let alone a superpower. 

Do I think either of them will be the dominant world super power?  Sure.  By their population alone.  The question is when and who first?

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14 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Do I think either of them will be the dominant world super power?  Sure.  By their population alone.  The question is when and who first?

The new Coronavirus may be a slight hiccup to that supposition.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

... To further understand the special population of ACE2-expressing AT2, we performed gene ontology enrichment analysis to study which biological processes are involved with this cell population by comparing them with the AT2 cells not expressing ACE2. Surprisingly, we found that multiple viral process-related GO are significantly over-presented, including “positive regulation of viral process” (P value=0.001), “viral life cycle” (P value=0.005), “virion assembly” (P value=0.03) and “positive regulation of viral genome replication” (P value=0.04). These highly expressed viral process-related genes in ACE2-expressing AT2 include: SLC1A5, CXADR, CAV2, NUP98, CTBP2, GSN,HSPA1B,STOM, RAB1B, HACD3, ITGB6, IST1,NUCKS1,TRIM27, APOE, SMARCB1,UBP1,CHMP1A,NUP160,HSPA8,DAG1,STAU1,ICAM1,CHMP5,D EK, VPS37B, EGFR, CCNK, PPIA, IFITM3, PPIB, TMPRSS2, UBC, LAMP1 and CHMP3. Therefore, it seems that the 2019-nCov has cleverly evolved to hijack this population of AT2 cells for its reproduction and transmission.

We further compared the characteristics of the donors and their ACE2 expressing patterns. No association was detected between the ACE2-expressing cell number and the age or smoking status of donors. Of note, the 2 male donors have a higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than all other 6 female donors (1.66% vs. 0.41% of all cells, P value=0.07, Mann Whitney Test). In addition, the distribution of ACE2 is also more widespread in male donors than females: at least 5 different types of cells in male lung express this receptor, while only 2~4 types of cells in female lung express the receptor. This result is highly consistent with the epidemic investigation showing that most of the confirmed 2019-nCov infected patients were men (30 vs. 11, by Jan 2, 2020).

We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

...

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”I acknowledge we will still go down the toilet, but just because China has 4 times more population than US, so their economic grip would be really tight and gettighter each year.”

Not necessarily. If you have four times the population, you need to be able to feed, clothe, water and provide energy to four times as many people or risk internal dissatisfaction and unrest. Having a huge population is a double edged sword.

Huge populations have been an albatross around the neck of China and India for decades.

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3 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

”I acknowledge we will still go down the toilet, but just because China has 4 times more population than US, so their economic grip would be really tight and gettighter each year.”

Not necessarily. If you have four times the population, you need to be able to feed, clothe, water and provide energy to four times as many people or risk internal dissatisfaction and unrest. Having a huge population is a double edged sword.

Huge populations have been an albatross around the neck of China and India for decades.

Huge populations are fine as long as they are growing at a fast enough rate (as India's is)

The problem comes when they stop growing and go into reverse, and then you have an ageing population that the working ages cannot support at the same level of wealth. This can cause extreme hardship and unrest in the populous as it is very difficult to take away someones lifestyle and replace it with poverty.

This is China's near future.

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(edited)

50 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Huge populations are fine as long as they are growing at a fast enough rate (as India's is)

The problem comes when they stop growing and go into reverse, and then you have an ageing population that the working ages cannot support at the same level of wealth. This can cause extreme hardship and unrest in the populous as it is very difficult to take away someones lifestyle and replace it with poverty.

This is China's near future.

Well they are currently IN poverty so... Nothing is being taken away.  China would probably be better off with a smaller population.  Honestly until China gets a couple more million acres of greenhouses built(already have 1 million), new ag practices implemented along with lots of new irrigation etc, they will not be a world super power as they have a couple hundred million they cannot feed currently.  Then you have the USA/Brazil casually throwing away enough calories to feed a Billion people each making ethanol...... India, sure they are mostly Hindu, but their farming practices are pretty poor so, India has ENORMOUS ability to keep growing where China does not.  So does the USA/Brazil. 

I do have to wonder about Sub Saharan Africa and their population explosion.  I'll bet this will be the leading story next decade along with gerriatrics in the developed world.  Will Next sub Saharan generation have same fertility rate as previous.   Current indications are yes, they will. 

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com
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7 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I do have to wonder about Sub Saharan Africa and their population explosion. 

Which population explosion in Africa?  Humans or the growing plague of billions of locusts eating huge swathes of crops?

A Plague Of "Billions" Of Locusts Threatens To Create Horrific End-Times Famine Across Africa

Billions of locusts are eating everything in sight in east Africa right now, and every single day many more farms are being completely wiped out.  Unfortunately, authorities are telling us that what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.  In fact, if extreme measures are not implemented immediately, authorities are claiming that this locust plague could literally get “500 times” worse in a few months.  But it is difficult to imagine conditions getting any worse than they are at this moment.  Ravenous locust swarms that are “the size of cities” are consuming crops at a staggering pace, and this could potentially cause famine on the African continent that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.  ...

 

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4 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Which population explosion in Africa?  Humans or the growing plague of billions of locusts eating huge swathes of crops?

A Plague Of "Billions" Of Locusts Threatens To Create Horrific End-Times Famine Across Africa

Billions of locusts are eating everything in sight in east Africa right now, and every single day many more farms are being completely wiped out.  Unfortunately, authorities are telling us that what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.  In fact, if extreme measures are not implemented immediately, authorities are claiming that this locust plague could literally get “500 times” worse in a few months.  But it is difficult to imagine conditions getting any worse than they are at this moment.  Ravenous locust swarms that are “the size of cities” are consuming crops at a staggering pace, and this could potentially cause famine on the African continent that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.  ...

 

Quick tell the greenies: They can get their nets out and turn them into their beef substitute burgers because they are scared of methane belching

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6 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

and this could potentially cause famine on the African continent that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.  ...

Time will tell Tom

I would temper this slightly by saying plagues of locusts aren't a new phenomena, they have been going on for millenia.

The difference being that in previous centuries there was a far greater abundance of food in general, as the climate was a lot wetter

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(edited)

O

An interesting observation

Edited by Marcin2
typo
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@Marcin

I presume you see the belt and road initiative China's way of exerting political and economic pressure on those countries directly involved. Thus ensuring their hegemony in years to come. However what will be China's strategy if there is political conflict between 2 countries in some of the regions this goes through? If pipelines or trade routes are halted for any length of time what will China do? Will they invade those lands or use political and economic will to intervene as they cannot afford for these trade routes to shutdown for any length of time.

I think we are all agreed China is in this for China alone (you cant blame them, its only like the US putting America first). What will be the fallout if military action is carried out as outlined? These territories are already incredibly unstable.

 

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