Recommended Posts

Does anyone else feel that this whole corona virus thing is being blown out of proportion?

  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to this article, which was published a few days ago, none of the Germans who have been infected by the Coronavirus suffered any serious illness.  The effect on one of the victims was a sore throat, muscle pains and fever, but he recovered after 2 - 3 days.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/study-reports-first-case-of-coronavirus-spread-by-asymptomatic-person/

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Douglas Buckland said:

Ron,

I am not saying the corona virus is not a problem, but compare the number of fatalities to say the common flu every year.

What worries me is that a person can be a carrier for up to two weeks and not even know it or have a light case and still spread it. It is also now found to be spread via hands and eyes. 

I am also amazed how it is affecting economies around the world. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t think that the real issue is the virus entering North America or Europe (for example), countries with robust health and medical infrastructure. The concern is if it gets traction in ‘under developed’ African or Asian countries and becomes a pandemic.

As you say, the symptoms may show up in 24 hours, but you have been a carrier for that time.

Why do you think that the markets are reacting so strongly?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/influenza-and-pneumonia-death-rate/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}

Rate of death by flu: 14/ 100,000 in US on average.  That's .014%.

Corona Virus mortality rate: 2%.  It's definitely a lot more infectious than SARS.  If it's as infectious as the flu, then we have the Spanish pandemic, part II.  2% of 1 billion people is a lot of people.

Also, no one wants to be the last person out of the door, so the market always over-reacts out of caution.

EDIT: However... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9-UXsvPBY

It depends on the number of people infected. It's possible that 10x more people got infected, but didn't get sick so it's possible the mortality rate is .2%.  

Edited by Zhong Lu
  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Ron,

I am not saying the corona virus is not a problem, but compare the number of fatalities to say the common flu every year.

I don’t know what your version of blown out of proportion is but 16 cities with around 46 million people are in lockdown in China. They seem to be taking it seriously.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Boat said:

I don’t know what your version of blown out of proportion is but 16 cities with around 46 million people are in lockdown in China. They seem to be taking it seriously.

So they are, but that does not necessarily mean that it has not been blown out of proportion....unless they know something about this virus that the rest of the world does not.

In the West it would be physically and politically impossible to ‘lock down’ a major city, let alone 16 of them. As 5 million people had already left Wuhan prior to the lockdown (who knows how many left the other cities) it seems to be a case of ‘shutting the barn door after the horses got out’.

Building. 1000 bed hospital in 5 days is simply a stunt to make the rest of the world think they are effectively tackling the problem. Anywhere else the would have commandeered a school, mall, indoor area that was already built and had water, power and sewer.

I will make a bet that there is more to this virus than the Chinese are admitting.

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

So they are, but that does not necessarily mean that it has not been blown out of proportion....unless they know something about this virus that the rest of the world does not.

In the West it would be physically and politically impossible to ‘lock down’ a major city, let alone 16 of them. As 5 million people had already left Wuhan prior to the lockdown (who knows how many left the other cities) it seems to be a case of ‘shutting the barn door after the horses got out’.

Building. 1000 bed hospital in 5 days is simply a stunt to make the rest of the world think they are effectively tackling the problem. Anywhere else the would have commandeered a school, mall, indoor area that was already built and had water, power and sewer.

I will make a bet that there is more to this virus than the Chinese are admitting.

No doubts there is more to this than China is letting out, why go to such radicle measures as hospitals built in days etc, something is afoot. As for over reacting I thing the reaction from the rest of the world is that there is no vaccine and dirty people who mistreat animals and eat exotic beasties should be baracaded in and made to deal with it. I would ban all unnecessary Chinese travel until this is sorted out. Isolationist ideals work in all dimensions.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thing is, the Chinese are acting, rightly or wrongly, like the coronavirus could create a pandemic. That being the case, as well as all fatalities (I believe) occurred in China....it is only rational for other countries to ban people from China from entering or quarantining them on arrival. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BEING RACIST OR ANTI-CHINESE...it is simply a common sense action to take. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

So they are, but that does not necessarily mean that it has not been blown out of proportion....unless they know something about this virus that the rest of the world does not.

In the West it would be physically and politically impossible to ‘lock down’ a major city, let alone 16 of them. As 5 million people had already left Wuhan prior to the lockdown (who knows how many left the other cities) it seems to be a case of ‘shutting the barn door after the horses got out’.

Building. 1000 bed hospital in 5 days is simply a stunt to make the rest of the world think they are effectively tackling the problem. Anywhere else the would have commandeered a school, mall, indoor area that was already built and had water, power and sewer.

I will make a bet that there is more to this virus than the Chinese are admitting.

One of those cities has 11 million in it. If you can pass the virus before symptoms show on the patient what alternative do they have? Let the virus rip through the world? It may be unstoppable no matter what they do, what anybody does. 
Most have no problems surviving but the virus seems deadly to the elderly with respiratory, heart problems, already weak, diabetes etc. 

The world worries about the demographics of an aging population. A pandemic may bring an early end science has said. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So by quarantining that single city, you are essentially creating 11 million carriers that you either need to find a cure for...or simply let the virus run it’s course.

Keep in mind that it is virtually impossible to keep 11 million people in lockdown mode, some will always get out.

Furthermore, from what has been said, they now have 16 other similar situations.

This is not looking good for China from either a health, environmental, economical or political point of view. Even if this virus runs it’s course or a cure is found, China will have lost a massive amount of trust (and ‘face’) globally.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I will make a bet that there is more to this virus than the Chinese are admitting.

I think you're right. To imagine the scenario that this was just a random zoonotic virus that jumped genus and species lines in some worker at the seafood mart would be doable . . . . . . were the food mart not in such close proximity to the only Level 4 Virus Biosafety Lab in China. Senator Tom Cotton--a China hawk, granted--said the first patient wasn't a food mart worker. He hinted that ground zero was the lab. 

Like Zhong Lu pointed out, this virus seems to be about a hundred times as bad as the common influenza virus that we currently have (not the Spanish Flu of 1919, which was awful, caused a lot of late Parkinsonism). Tony Fouci of the CDC said 25% of infected needed intensive care. That's the definition of one mean virus. 

So, I don't think building that new hospital so fast was for show, but necessity. The Chinese seemed to know right off that this was an exceptionally dangerous virus. The pandemic (and it is one now) epicenter being so close to their level 4 lab sure raises a lot of eyebrows. Our CDC has this bug under the microscope, and they're looking hard at its genome for splices. If it's a genetically-engineered virus they already know. Dr. Fouci is on this: you can bet that his preliminary report is already in President Trump's hands. If this was--God forbid--a fiddled-with virus, there's going to be hell to pay. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/2/2020 at 9:22 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Does anyone else feel that this whole corona virus thing is being blown out of proportion?

This is worth listening to, hard to tell so early on but as Zhong Lu points out it's very infectious and 20x deadlier than common flu and also people are still very infectious after recovering apparently.

I've got to say this is a real kick in the teeth for anyone in the industry right now, as if things weren't bad enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=z05ZrMfKUDc&feature=emb_logo

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, It is a new flu thats it. Its a scare tactic to bring the price of OIL down, thats it. Oil was on a rebound and America/Trump wanted a lower price. The flu is real but, watch the price of oil as soon as the oil prices start to recover NEW bull-shit news on crono comes out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/4/2020 at 7:26 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

I will make a bet that there is more to this virus than the Chinese are admitting.

^

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You all should know this Oil Price.com website is purely liberal trash. I say this being in the US and knowing that the Coronavirus has extremely affected China's "demand" for OIL & GAS. 

The "British Version" of what's going on in this whole world of our's is way off base & I mean the liberal base.

TRUMP Is changing the world & it solely involves "Fair Trade"!!  The Chinese, Europe & of course England have been on a "Free Ride" for decades. IT IS COMING TO A SCREATHING HALT, as I write this !!! Their are many other leeches with have been bleeding our country (US) dry but it is ending, PERMENTLY!!!

The US is now the largest exporter of Oil & soon Natural gas in the world. WE DO NOT IMPORT crude from any country we are independent NOW!!  

OPEC will be a non-controlling entity i a very short time.  The US is now calling the "SHOTS", sort-of-speaking with the price of oil stabilizing and holding a working level so no one country can control its price!!

With all this in mind one can start to see the "Art Of The Deal" in Trump's plan for the United States & the world.

GO TRUMP !!!

  • Rolling Eye 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can`t believe somany Americans are idiots.

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see the topic of overblown concerns over the Wuhan coronavirus has been rightly abandoned. 

It is a real concern. It is doing real damage. And the Chinese policy reaction is telling us that the confirmed case numbers don't tell the story. Perhaps another leak on Tencent will give us an update, as 154k cases, 25k dead and 80k suspected was scary enough the prior Saturday. 

Hopefully the test kit production in Wuhan will give us better quality confirmed case numbers starting today or tommorrow. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^

Truer words were never spoken. This virus is probably even more infectious now than when it first hit. Then, the R Naught was said to be 2.2, which is middle of the road, but I suspect the real number was much higher (the reproductive index of poliovirus was 4, then climbed to 6).

With Xi and the communist regime turning a cold shoulder to WHO and failing to invite the CDC in, as a world community we're getting very close to the point where we have to knock down the doors and have a look-see, while helping to control this thing. In other words, it may well be necessary to go to ground zero with the full medical resources of the world in order to put this back into its nasty little box. 

I am always loath to criticize our president, but now, at this dispositive point in history, I don't think it's enough to have a phone conversation with Xi and declare him bright and focused and determined. For Xi to lock down 50 million people, sending people to die in their homes for lack of medical personnel and equipment, we're possibly staring right down the barrel at a pandemic. The Bill and Melinda Gates Seminar on just this possible scenario, at Johns Hopkins, back in Oct or Nov, established a likely global death toll of several million people if a rogue coronavirus got loose.

Well, one got loose. And while I realize that Xi has tight control over his country, he is very rapidly turning China into the Europe of Black Plague infamy. Xi wanted hegemony, but I'm not sure this is what he had in mind.

  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/5/2020 at 7:06 AM, El Nikko said:

This is worth listening to, hard to tell so early on but as Zhong Lu points out it's very infectious and 20x deadlier than common flu and also people are still very infectious after recovering apparently.

I've got to say this is a real kick in the teeth for anyone in the industry right now, as if things weren't bad enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=z05ZrMfKUDc&feature=emb_logo

This is the first I have heard about it being infectious after recovery. My wife is a nurse practitioner and says that common flu is not normally spread by patients post recovery.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Not quite.  Look at the EDIT in my original post (Youtube).  The mortality rate might be .2% or even .02%, comparable to the flu.  The issue is how many people got infected by the corona virus but didn't get sick and showed no symptoms.  These people won't show up in the initial mortality ratios, skewing the current mortality rate to be too high.  

Still, given the scale of the Chinese government's response, a lot more people died from this corona virus then the government is willing to admit.

There are reports from reputable scientific sources like Nature that corona virus is 99% identical to another virus found in pangolins.

Edited by Zhong Lu
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

I posted a comment over on the China Gets Caught subject a couple of hours ago.  I think it's relevant here:

It is very interesting what industrious human beings can and do accomplish, especially when conditioned to consider the group more important than the individual. Combine that with indoctrination, yes it's a strong word; but it fits, that leads the group to believe that the entire world outside your borders has gravely wronged your great country throughout history and is in fact responsible for most of the woes that have befallen your Great nation (read Party, and now President for Life), or will do so into the future.  It seems that this all too often evolves into a mass group of individuals carrying out the bidding/ideology of the few at the top of what is called "leadership", or government, or CEO/C-suite, etc.

Did anyone else notice that the protesters in Hong Kong, and any supporters they may have had, have been made impotent by all of this?  Does anyone in the Middle Kingdom doubt the State's power and control at this stage?  Do you think it is lost on the citizens that the government claims all rights to being the saviour, and that argument about this point could cost you your life?  The figures vary, but somewhere around 100 million citizens have been effectively imprisoned in and around a number of Chinese cities, and what goes on inside the prison is virtually unverifiable.  I'd wager that no other country on earth could carry out such a "quarantine" at such a scale as the Chinese.  

It is my opinion that this whole affair, when it is boiled down to nuts and bolts, is a warning from the ruler(s) to the ruled.  And, to a certain extent, to the world at large.  You can call this conspiratorial madness, but you have not seen the forces of the government of China unleashed upon its own people the way I have, and you have not seen how the world at large was impotent at doing a damn thing about it.  This is not China of 1890 anymore.  This is evolution in a dangerous direction.

(rant over!)

 

Edited by Dan Warnick
  • Like 2
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.