OPEC and Russia could discuss emergency cuts

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, J.mo said:

You're delusional man. Who is going to do their part? The guys barely making it, or trying to get bigger? Or the fat cats, who eventually feed the competition both domestically and abroad. 

 

Aren’t there more ‘adult’ responses than to accuse someone of being “delusional” when you disagree with something they state as an opinion?

Furthermore, “The guys barely making it, or trying to get bigger?”, is not a question.

[J.mo + 165]

9 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Aren’t there more ‘adult’ responses than to accuse someone of being “delusional” when you disagree with something they state as an opinion?

Furthermore, “The guys barely making it, or trying to get bigger?”, is not a question.

I'm sure there are much more in depth articulated responses, but why go to those lengths when that basically sums it up. 

You are free to disagree with me. 

Edited February 24, 2020 by J.mo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I didn’t say that I disagreed with you, I inferred that your response was childish, confusing and grammatically incorrect. A whole different ‘kettle of fish’.

[Rob Plant + 2,635]

On 2/8/2020 at 1:39 PM, Capt. Lauren Dowsett said:

You all should know this Oil Price.com website is purely liberal trash. I say this being in the US and knowing that the Coronavirus has extremely affected China's "demand" for OIL & GAS. 

The "British Version" of what's going on in this whole world of our's is way off base & I mean the liberal base.

TRUMP Is changing the world & it solely involves "Fair Trade"!!  The Chinese, Europe & of course England have been on a "Free Ride" for decades. IT IS COMING TO A SCREATHING HALT, as I write this !!! Their are many other leeches with have been bleeding our country (US) dry but it is ending, PERMENTLY!!!

The US is now the largest exporter of Oil & soon Natural gas in the world. WE DO NOT IMPORT crude from any country we are independent NOW!!  

OPEC will be a non-controlling entity i a very short time.  The US is now calling the "SHOTS", sort-of-speaking with the price of oil stabilizing and holding a working level so no one country can control its price!!

With all this in mind one can start to see the "Art Of The Deal" in Trump's plan for the United States & the world.

GO TRUMP !!!

The "British Version" of what's going on in this whole world of our's is way off base & I mean the liberal base.

How so? You lump the whole of Britain into "liberal" this is way off the mark. We have just elected Boris by a landslide who is anything but liberal so your comment is just plain wrong. If you are talking about the British media (ie BBC) then you should know that they are very left wing in their bias. Dont believe everything you see on the telly or in our papers, its mostly crap!

You clearly are a massive Trump fan which is fine by me, however I suggest you take your blinkers off for a while and try to see a less biased viewpoint.

TRUMP Is changing the world & it solely involves "Fair Trade"!!  The Chinese, Europe & of course England have been on a "Free Ride" for decades. IT IS COMING TO A SCREATHING HALT, as I write this !!! Their are many other leeches with have been bleeding our country (US) dry but it is ending, PERMENTLY!!!

I agree that China has been heavily involved in tech theft and that many countries in Europe and also Canada don't pay their way into NATO, but England/UK does and always has. How is England on a "free ride" I would be genuinely interested to know.

Your comment on not importing oil is incorrect. Your assessment on OPEC we will have to wait and see, although certainly Saudi in particular is looking much weaker and needs the support of Russia.

Personally I think Trump is very good for the US economy and he is slowly starting to understand foreign policy.

He isn't the messiah though

Just saying

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 2/12/2020 at 3:25 PM, Dan Warnick said:

accept nothing less than a General Stormin Norman Schwarzkopf War!  Get in, smash the enemy, declare unconditional victory, and go home, in less than a year total if at all possible.

Personally a huge fan of the Colin Powell doctrine. And it worked in GW 1 because of the overwhelming force, and clear, limited mission. Battles are easy, wars, be careful what winning causes.

When asked about taking over Iraq and getting rid of Saddam the answer was "and then what?" If we aren't willing to pursue a Marshall Plan, take over, run the government, and rebuild to our values, then winning doesn't work so well. See . GW 2 as an example of a total shit show for the overall effect. Still playing kissy face with that tar baby.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/4/2020 at 1:57 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Ron,

I am not saying the corona virus is not a problem, but compare the number of fatalities to say the common flu every year.

Doug, the coronavirus likely to infect 3-5 billion people, with death rate of 2%, that = 60-100 million! That is on top of the flu. Personally, I am guessing that the true death rate around 10% but authorities covering up to avoid panic. Having a well-equipped hospital with O2 and ventilators etc may reduce death rate to 2%, but that won't help if hospitals overwhelmed? That is why we need to widen our travel bans but our govt's are too gutless to do it. The evil bastards aren't even interested in trying to reduce the damage.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/2/2020 at 4:25 PM, ronwagn said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/opec-russia-could-discuss-emergency-cuts-as-coronavirus-crushes-oil.html

 

OPEC, Russia could meet to discuss emergency cuts as coronavirus crushes oil price

Buyers win, producers lose. 

PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 31 20204:49 PM EST

Umm Ron, I thought you were American? If producers lose and US already biggest producer, doesn't that make US biggest loser?

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/4/2020 at 11:12 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

So by quarantining that single city, you are essentially creating 11 million carriers that you either need to find a cure for...or simply let the virus run it’s course.

Keep in mind that it is virtually impossible to keep 11 million people in lockdown mode, some will always get out.

Furthermore, from what has been said, they now have 16 other similar situations.

This is not looking good for China from either a health, environmental, economical or political point of view. Even if this virus runs it’s course or a cure is found, China will have lost a massive amount of trust (and ‘face’) globally.

China is using drones with loud-speakers to warn hungry people to get back in their homes.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/12/2020 at 5:13 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Get out the Sterno and Aspirin for the next rogue virus, eh?

Gerry, do you know if Relenza or Tamiflu of any use against new corona virus?

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

No, I'm sorry, I don't know.

I doubt it, but I'll bet they've been tried. They innocuous to use, for the most part, so I'll bet they're throwing everything at this thing.

I keep hearing that Greffex has a vaccine. They did that with an NIH grant, so they're legitimate. I am equally sure that many labs are working on a vaccine. The window may be closing as it takes a while to run animal trials, then human safety trials. All the while, this thing is trying to break containment. 

Vaccines are hard to make for these RNA zoonotic viruses. And they mutate very rapidly. I think our best bet is an early spring, frankly.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^^^^^^ Read the below right after I answered your question. This was in some article on the CNN website:

Biotech company AbbVie (ABBV) has said that it has seen promising results for treatment using a mixture of two of its HIV medications and Tamiflu, which is made by Swiss pharma giant Roche (RHHBF) and Japan's Chugai Pharmaceutical Co (CHGCY).

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Doug, the coronavirus likely to infect 3-5 billion people, with death rate of 2%, that = 60-100 million! That is on top of the flu. Personally, I am guessing that the true death rate around 10% but authorities covering up to avoid panic. Having a well-equipped hospital with O2 and ventilators etc may reduce death rate to 2%, but that won't help if hospitals overwhelmed? That is why we need to widen our travel bans but our govt's are too gutless to do it. The evil bastards aren't even interested in trying to reduce the damage.

Look at the date I posted my comment on. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Umm Ron, I thought you were American? If producers lose and US already biggest producer, doesn't that make US biggest loser?

It makes consumers from individuals to corporations the biggest winners. The lowest priced producers will survive. Production will drop until prices increase enough for reasonable profits. That is my understanding of capitalism. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

It makes consumers from individuals to corporations the biggest winners. The lowest priced producers will survive. Production will drop until prices increase enough for reasonable profits. That is my understanding of capitalism. 

Ah yes but lowest priced producers are the Arabs, $1 bbl compared to US cost = $60/bbl? Do u really want to shoot your own country in the foot? Why do u think Trump is putting sanctions on other countries here, there and everywhere? Didn't you stop to think he might be trying to protect US market share? The oversupply of oil so great he is runnin outta countries to sanction?!? Think about it.

[Wombat + 1,028]

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Look at the date I posted my comment on. 

Yes, that is second time u have reminded me but u still seem a little confused about the seriousness of the situation, not so much in terms of the human tragedy, but the threat to the oil market and economy in general. I am simply trying to warn you that we have only seen "the tip of the economic ice-berg" so far. Dec 19 GDP figures will come out and everythin seem fine. 3 months later, WHAMMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Like a super-volcano blew its top or we got pummelled by a large meteor! Beware the calm b4 the storm! If u own oil shares, get out now! BUY GOLD! Just my opinion of course, but I think this forum great for sharpening the mind, and I find many of your comments useful so just tryna return the favour

[wrs + 893]

3 hours ago, Wombat said:

Yes, that is second time u have reminded me but u still seem a little confused about the seriousness of the situation, not so much in terms of the human tragedy, but the threat to the oil market and economy in general. I am simply trying to warn you that we have only seen "the tip of the economic ice-berg" so far. Dec 19 GDP figures will come out and everythin seem fine. 3 months later, WHAMMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Like a super-volcano blew its top or we got pummelled by a large meteor! Beware the calm b4 the storm! If u own oil shares, get out now! BUY GOLD! Just my opinion of course, but I think this forum great for sharpening the mind, and I find many of your comments useful so just tryna return the favour

You can't eat gold, wear it, put it in your tank to run your car, wipe your ass with it or pretty much anything useful. It's just a cold metal in some form like coins or bars, what good is it?  Other than you think it's valuable but that's just your opinion, right?  You might share that opinion with others but it doesn't mean you are right in your view.  Some people think stocks are valuable also but you really don't have anything there at least you can get your coins out and look at them.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

Ah yes but lowest priced producers are the Arabs, $1 bbl compared to US cost = $60/bbl? Do u really want to shoot your own country in the foot? Why do u think Trump is putting sanctions on other countries here, there and everywhere? Didn't you stop to think he might be trying to protect US market share? The oversupply of oil so great he is runnin outta countries to sanction?!? Think about it.

When you figure in the price of transport from the Middle East, I am sure that we can meet their price. Correct me if I am wrong. That is just my guess. I am not interested in exporting oil as everyone seems to think it will be running out. 

[D Coyne + 305]

On 2/24/2020 at 11:21 PM, ronwagn said:

It makes consumers from individuals to corporations the biggest winners. The lowest priced producers will survive. Production will drop until prices increase enough for reasonable profits. That is my understanding of capitalism. 

Ron,

Your understanding of capitalism is not very good then.  The "efficient markets" hypothesis for a capitalist system depends on market clearing prices where businesses can depend on relatively stable prices so that they can plan effectively and allocate capital efficiently.  The problem is that the "hypothesis" uses silly constructs such as an "auctioneer" that is used to find market clearing prices in every market to allow the assumptions of the Walrasian model to be correct.

Just like the Matrix where "there is no spoon", in capitalist economies "there is no auctioneer".

Without market clearing prices we get an inefficient allocation of capital and without government intervention can have long term depressions where no capital is invested due to lack of aggregate demand.  

The entire system is far less self regulating than Adam Smith envisioned in 1776.

Consumers won't be happy when a lack of investment results in a shortage of oil and oil prices rise.  In 3 to 5 years we will be back to oil prices over $100/bo, so think carefully when deciding on your next vehicle purchase, or just lease so you can get rid of the vehicle easily in 3 or 4 years.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Ron,

Your understanding of capitalism is not very good then.  The "efficient markets" hypothesis for a capitalist system depends on market clearing prices where businesses can depend on relatively stable prices so that they can plan effectively and allocate capital efficiently.  The problem is that the "hypothesis" uses silly constructs such as an "auctioneer" that is used to find market clearing prices in every market to allow the assumptions of the Walrasian model to be correct.

Just like the Matrix where "there is no spoon", in capitalist economies "there is no auctioneer".

Without market clearing prices we get an inefficient allocation of capital and without government intervention can have long term depressions where no capital is invested due to lack of aggregate demand.  

The entire system is far less self regulating than Adam Smith envisioned in 1776.

Consumers won't be happy when a lack of investment results in a shortage of oil and oil prices rise.  In 3 to 5 years we will be back to oil prices over $100/bo, so think carefully when deciding on your next vehicle purchase, or just lease so you can get rid of the vehicle easily in 3 or 4 years.

 

I like my take on free and fair markets. I never did believe in price fixing. I think everything balances out for fair pricing. It is indeed painful, but we have all experienced ups and downs. That is the nature of life IMHO. I am no expert economist, but those who were, destroyed the markets and brought us Obama to "fix" it. They are also the ones who said Trump would crash the economy. Go figure. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

9 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I like my take on free and fair markets. I never did believe in price fixing. I think everything balances out for fair pricing. It is indeed painful, but we have all experienced ups and downs. That is the nature of life IMHO. I am no expert economist, but those who were, destroyed the markets and brought us Obama to "fix" it. They are also the ones who said Trump would crash the economy. Go figure. 

So essentially if you plan for an unstable market because life isnt perfect and dont run the tread off your greed wheels you'll succeed and supply to wants and needs along the way. 

[George8944 + 128]

On 2/2/2020 at 4:22 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Does anyone else feel that this whole corona virus thing is being blown out of proportion?

I think it depends the metric.  In terms of loss of life, yes I think it is very overblown.  In terms of economic expense I think it is under estimated.  The issue is the infected are sick for several weeks. During that time they are not being normal consumers and they aren’t being productive ( working ).  This impact is just beginning to be felt.  The panic is riding ahead of reality at this point, but reality will catch up.  I’m so confident in this thesis I’m in 90% cash.

[Heitor + 3]

I honestly can't understand the panic created around this virus thing. C'mon guys, let's be honest: just like ANY OTHER virus, corona one kills. Comparatively, it's more contagious but still people survive. Different situation to SARS, MERS and even Influenza, more deadly infections. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

16 hours ago, Heitor said:

I honestly can't understand the panic created around this virus thing. C'mon guys, let's be honest: just like ANY OTHER virus, corona one kills. Comparatively, it's more contagious but still people survive. Different situation to SARS, MERS and even Influenza, more deadly infections. 

That is what we DON'T know. Mortality in Iran is already high. Survival outcome stats from China, if one is to believe them, are still showing 8% dying vs 92% recoveries.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/25/2020 at 7:39 AM, wrs said:

You can't eat gold, wear it, put it in your tank to run your car, wipe your ass with it or pretty much anything useful. It's just a cold metal in some form like coins or bars, what good is it?  Other than you think it's valuable but that's just your opinion, right?  You might share that opinion with others but it doesn't mean you are right in your view.  Some people think stocks are valuable also but you really don't have anything there at least you can get your coins out and look at them.

That reminds me of some of the stories about people with gold dying of thirst out in the desert. I prefer commodities that I have physical possession of. Food, water, machinery, implements, guns and ammo, paper goods, soap, medical supplies, medications etc. 

Owning a paid off house and vehicles with an extra garage never felt better. Both of us with medical training too. 

I highly recommend nursing as a first or second career. You can get a license with a two year degree from a community college. You can go beyond that in many specialties with a B.A. and M.A. You can become a nurse practitioner or go to medical school. It is nice to know that you can help friends, family, and others when they need medical advice. It is also nice to know what you can do to keep yourself healthy and live longer. 

Here is my topic on Nursing Careers, it might be useful for your kids or friends kids. I realize many of you are very successful already. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yCYyMNU6CWLg2vOI2857JsG8WSVhZanAQmeLVzrNkOI/edit

Edited February 29, 2020 by ronwagn

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I think they will cut production by 1 milion barrels.

In the current situation, shale oil production has slowed down and I think that the increase in shale oil production in this respect that shale production is growing so fast that shale supply exceeds global demand will not be a problem.

An additional problem for American producers is that they produce in this way lighter and lighter oil with higher API oil and more and more gas and the fact that we also have overproduction of gas also kills the economics of shale oil production. You should not forget about problem with oil quality because there is too much light oil in the market and we need more heavy oil. Shale oil has increasing API density and thats becoming a problem.

In this situation, OPEC may cut production without risking the Third Shale Revolution, so the situation seems to me more advantageous for the cartel because cutting production now will not give away market share to other producers.