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Trump reinvented tariffs and it worked

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1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

15 years ago the expectation was that integrating China into the global market would alter China into a more democratic and rules led society and open government. Instead it instituted Chinese methods of capturing commercial business by subsidies and theft of IP and industrial espionage. It corrupted the world trading system and transnational organizations and didn't temper the CCP. Its hardliners kept key power centers and when things turned, demoted the reformers and consolidated power as China's demographics started to slow their growth. They created a new Mao figure and concentrated power hierarchy, to reassure them of the strength of their position and then went all out to apply technology to suppress dissent and track everyone.

^ nailed it.

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1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

15 years ago the expectation was that integrating China into the global market would alter China into a more democratic and rules led society and open government.

This was likely the case 40 years ago. In my view 15 years ago we just didn't take believe China would rise as quick as they did and the West believe that we could stay one step ahead for eternity. 

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

he CCP, as the last remaining "communist" organization of size, is very much aware of their precarious position. Their paranoid surveillance state and social scoring system is distorting discourse to the point of neither society, business nor the party itself being able to get a picture of reality in any sphere.

Probably some truth here, but the West is pretty disfunctional as well.

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Pls allow me a oil analogy - coming from offshore I learned the hard way that "hope is not a strategy", LTO is not automatically killing itself. There will adjustments and bumps but LTO will remain part of the energy. Same thing with China; burying our heads in sand and hoping they will implode is unlikrly to be a good strategy.

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1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:
3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

15 years ago the expectation was that integrating China into the global market would alter China into a more democratic and rules led society and open government.

This was likely the case 40 years ago. In my view 15 years ago we just didn't take believe China would rise as quick as they did and the West believe that we could stay one step ahead for eternity. 

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

he CCP, as the last remaining "communist" organization of size, is very much aware of their precarious position. Their paranoid surveillance state and social scoring system is distorting discourse to the point of neither society, business nor the party itself being able to get a picture of reality in any sphere.

Probably some truth here, but the West is pretty disfunctional as well.

I was completely certain that China would rise because of its then young demographic, the necessarily resulting higher savings rates, and the success of its espionage based R&D programs, which cost so much less than actual R&D. By 2000 I had researched the astonishing growth of agricultural productivity and the ongoing industrial production ramp up and the geometric rise in investment. I tracked their financial manipulation of the Eurodollar system via growing reserves and commodity (and gold) futures purchases using those reserves for collateral. I realized that Gibson's paradox pricing of gold was impossible under these circumstances as even marginal interest rises in a world of compressed gross margins (what China created for global industry via its exports) would instantly form recessions and gradualism would  form depressions. So I invested in gold and energy and related securities. And built up cash to have after the Western economies that China inflated via the Eurodollar system go into crisis. 

Whatever dysfunction and delusion is going on in the West, the CCP is far worse. They have a cognitive dysfunction due to their training in dialectics such that they can not connect their policies to their necessary consequences, but only see the desired expected outcome that was targeted.

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1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

 

Pls allow me a oil analogy - coming from offshore I learned the hard way that "hope is not a strategy", LTO is not automatically killing itself. There will adjustments and bumps but LTO will remain part of the energy. Same thing with China; burying our heads in sand and hoping they will implode is unlikrly to be a good strategy.

I am not hoping that China will implode. I am fearing that it has to. Then I fear what their response will do to themselves and to everyone else. 

The common argument among those who have come to the same conclusion I have, is that the CCP may hermetically seal China from the world into a N. Korea like techno-dystopia right out of Orwell's "1984".

That will be a huge blow to much of the world economy, not to speak of the Chinese people. But the CCP will be certainly better capable of cementing their power and unity of China under those circumstances. 

I fear that the coronavirus' and the resulting isolation of China may be used by the CCP as an excuse to seal the country and unplug it from the world. The motivation would be political pressure on the CCP from within to overcome an enraged peoples who don't "buy" their narrative any longer.

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1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

The common argument among those who have come to the same conclusion I have, is that the CCP may hermetically seal China from the world into a N. Korea like techno-dystopia right out of Orwell's "1984".

This raises the interesting question of how the CCP proposes to find wives for the tens of millions of young Chinese males for whom there are no women candidates.   You will recall that, during the big program to limit births to "one child per family," the families responded by fetus selection, aborting the girls.  The result: vast millions of boy births and 25 years later, no wife candidates.  If the CCP "seals off" the place, how do these men go and import wives from neighboring countries?  Or do they not?  In which case China has possibly 40 or 50 million involuntarily celibate males with no job and no wife and no house and the dreams of that middle-class life with a car and air travel and discretionary income - all gone.  And that is a recipe for big trouble. 

The Coronavirus outbreak showed us that the CCP values "stability" over everything else.  The doctor who first warned of the virus was arrested and intimidated in the jails, forced to recant and confess to "undermining social stability."  Well, turns out he got the disease and has now died!  The local officials now look stupid, but hey, it demonstrates the value that the State puts on social cohesion.  How do they propose to contain "social stability" when sealing off the country from mail-order brides?   Big problems ahead. 

I predict China will implode and break up.  The place is totally artificial: some 86 different social groups forced together after their Civil War.  The CCP thinks it can hold it together with their CCTV spy cameras and AI facial recognition systems.  I doubt it. Chaos is coming to China. 

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

This raises the interesting question of how the CCP proposes to find wives for the tens of millions of young Chinese males for whom there are no women candidates.   You will recall that, during the big program to limit births to "one child per family," the families responded by fetus selection, aborting the girls.  The result: vast millions of boy births and 25 years later, no wife candidates.  If the CCP "seals off" the place, how do these men go and import wives from neighboring countries?  Or do they not?  In which case China has possibly 40 or 50 million involuntarily celibate males with no job and no wife and no house and the dreams of that middle-class life with a car and air travel and discretionary income - all gone.  And that is a recipe for big trouble. 

The Coronavirus outbreak showed us that the CCP values "stability" over everything else.  The doctor who first warned of the virus was arrested and intimidated in the jails, forced to recant and confess to "undermining social stability."  Well, turns out he got the disease and has now died!  The local officials now look stupid, but hey, it demonstrates the value that the State puts on social cohesion.  How do they propose to contain "social stability" when sealing off the country from mail-order brides?   Big problems ahead. 

I predict China will implode and break up.  The place is totally artificial: some 86 different social groups forced together after their Civil War.  The CCP thinks it can hold it together with their CCTV spy cameras and AI facial recognition systems.  I doubt it. Chaos is coming to China. 

Wow, the idea that a it's a governments job to get men laid is laughable and disgusting.

You did correctly note that is was the parents that killed the female babies - not the government.

Involuntary celibates are such a classy group of losers. A "friend?"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incel

"Many incel communities are characterized by resentment, self-pity,[5] racism, misogyny, misanthropy, and narcissism.[1][4][5][9][26][27][36][37] Discussions often revolve around the belief that men are owed sex; other common topics include idleness, loneliness, unhappiness,[41] suicide, sexual surrogates, prostitutes and the acquisition of sex robots,[42] as well as various attributes they believe increase one's desirability as a partner such as income or personality.[25] Opposition to feminism and women's rights is commonplace, and some posters blame women's liberation for their inability to find a partner. Antisemitic beliefs are also regularly found on incel forums, with some posters going so far as to blame the rise of feminism on a plot masterminded by Jews to weaken the West.[21]"

 

Edited by Enthalpic

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“Walmart will not be pleased, and that pleases me immensely. “

Amen brother!!!!

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Why do you hate America? 

Kidding Walmart sucks - they are ruining Canada too.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

This raises the interesting question of how the CCP proposes to find wives for the tens of millions of young Chinese males for whom there are no women candidates.   You will recall that, during the big program to limit births to "one child per family," the families responded by fetus selection, aborting the girls.  The result: vast millions of boy births and 25 years later, no wife candidates.  If the CCP "seals off" the place, how do these men go and import wives from neighboring countries?  Or do they not?  In which case China has possibly 40 or 50 million involuntarily celibate males with no job and no wife and no house and the dreams of that middle-class life with a car and air travel and discretionary income - all gone.  And that is a recipe for big trouble. 

The Coronavirus outbreak showed us that the CCP values "stability" over everything else.  The doctor who first warned of the virus was arrested and intimidated in the jails, forced to recant and confess to "undermining social stability."  Well, turns out he got the disease and has now died!  The local officials now look stupid, but hey, it demonstrates the value that the State puts on social cohesion.  How do they propose to contain "social stability" when sealing off the country from mail-order brides?   Big problems ahead. 

I predict China will implode and break up.  The place is totally artificial: some 86 different social groups forced together after their Civil War.  The CCP thinks it can hold it together with their CCTV spy cameras and AI facial recognition systems.  I doubt it. Chaos is coming to China. 

Aaahh, Mr. van Eck!  Always concerned for the young men and their carnal needs.  I salute you!  (I say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

The concerns are real, but not an issue for the CCP; if the borders are sealed, and even if they are not(!), and a man makes himself a problem for ANY reason, he can easily be carted away and dealt with as per the CCP handbook (Clause "Z" - General issues not covered by Clauses A - Y).  Death by insanity.  Who's sanity?  Who cares; just get rid of the problem (I do NOT say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

Edited by Dan Warnick
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3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I am not hoping that China will implode. I am fearing that it has to. Then I fear what their response will do to themselves and to everyone else. 

The common argument among those who have come to the same conclusion I have, is that the CCP may hermetically seal China from the world into a N. Korea like techno-dystopia right out of Orwell's "1984".

That will be a huge blow to much of the world economy, not to speak of the Chinese people. But the CCP will be certainly better capable of cementing their power and unity of China under those circumstances. 

I fear that the coronavirus' and the resulting isolation of China may be used by the CCP as an excuse to seal the country and unplug it from the world. The motivation would be political pressure on the CCP from within to overcome an enraged peoples who don't "buy" their narrative any longer.

I came to a similar conclusion a long time ago: Do not take lightly the possibility that China could once again seal off its borders for all outbound travellers to all but specifically approved CCP government representatives.  When I first traveled to the Middle Kingdom in 1989 the only way any Chinese citizen could travel outside of China was 1) they had to be a party member of good standing. 2) They had to have approval at the highest levels of the local, and sometimes central Beijing, CCP relevant department (Public Security Bureau and Foreign Affairs Department, among others as necessary). They could easily re-institute these requirements.

For people that want to travel to China, it would be a simple thing to shut down the Visa approval process.

People do not want to believe that when told that the authorities in Beijing, once the rather large decision to make this happen was made, would not care if a nuclear powerplant might suffer meltdown if a foreign expert were not brought in immediately.  As Mao said at one point about a nuclear attack:  Mao: How many would die in such an attack?  (Answer given: 2-300 million)   Mao: That is acceptable.

Our Chinese friends have every confidence they could make it on their own and they have many centuries of experience to point to as proof, not that any proof is needed if the CCP leadership decides it will be done.

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(edited)

26 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Aaahh, Mr. van Eck!  Always concerned for the young men and their carnal needs.  I salute you!  (I say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

The concerns are real, but not an issue for the CCP; if the borders are sealed, and even if they are not(!), and a man makes himself a problem for ANY reason, he can easily be carted away and dealt with as per the CCP handbook (Clause "Z" - General issues not covered by Clauses A -  Y).  Death by insanity.  Who's sanity?  Who cares; just get rid of the problem (I do NOT say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

Correct.

This is hilarious! According to Amazon Fort McMurray (a shitty industrial city / oil sands work) was listed as the most "romantic city in Canada."

"Amazon said the data looks at purchases of romance novels, romantic comedies, relationship books, jewelry and sexual wellness products."

Stupid amazon - those are fleshlights for lonely men and vibrators and lube for lonely women!

https://globalnews.ca/news/6513451/fort-mcmurray-canadas-most-romantic-city-amazon/

Edited by Enthalpic
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9 hours ago, 0R0 said:

15 years ago the expectation was that integrating China into the global market would alter China into a more democratic and rules led society and open government. Instead it instituted Chinese methods of capturing commercial business by subsidies and theft of IP and industrial espionage. It corrupted the world trading system and transnational organizations and didn't temper the CCP. Its hardliners kept key power centers and when things turned, demoted the reformers and consolidated power as China's demographics started to slow their growth. They created a new Mao figure and concentrated power hierarchy, to reassure them of the strength of their position and then went all out to apply technology to suppress dissent and track everyone.

Maintaining the "all is well" meme in China is the CCP's first priority. But it works both ways, the delusion is not only among the people, as intended, but in the leadership. Information is redacted as it flows up the hierarchy to create as pretty a picture as the intermediate levels can credibly produce. 

The CCP, as the last remaining "communist" organization of size, is very much aware of their precarious position. Their paranoid surveillance state and social scoring system is distorting discourse to the point of neither society, business nor the party itself being able to get a picture of reality in any sphere. 

Some truth to this.  If you are on the outside looking inwards, the picture might be as you describe.  The reason for including China in the global economy is not for democracy, but for the greed of US oligarchs. A market of 1 billion people was simply too lucrative not to exploit.  As for IP theft, many allegations, but no proven cases yet. [Besides, China has enacted IP protect laws, and did so long before Trump].

But inside, the picture is rather different. The CCP has total power in any case, so the consolidation [as you put it] is but a redundant step. The true reason for consolidation is to deal swiftly and decisively against the corruption that was rampant prior [and the result of devolving power to local levels].  The corruption was severe and threatened the existence of China as an independent country.  This story is immense and cannot be explained in a forum such as this. 

In general, most of the world has no understanding of China. What Westerners, in particular, perceive from the outside is just that: what you perceive based upon information supplied by a racially controlled media. All too often, those perceptions are blatantly wrong. Coupled with nationalism, such as the self-laudatory claims of the exceptional nation, history proves the mix has dire consequences. 

 

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3 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

But inside, the picture is rather different. The CCP has total power in any case, so the consolidation [as you put it] is but a redundant step. The true reason for consolidation is to deal swiftly and decisively against the corruption that was rampant prior [and the result of devolving power to local levels].  The corruption was severe and threatened the existence of China as an independent country.  This story is immense and cannot be explained in a forum such as this. 

Corruption is endemic to all authoritarian regimes. China is just a somewh?at worse case of it. Democracies suffer plenty of it as well. But I do want to understand what the "corruption" was. I simply believe it to be some seperatist leaders wanting to devolve power into more autonomous regional and provincial governments that could potentially have led to opportunities for the provinces to separate out from China. 

So why not give us your picture of what happened and how it was threatening China's survival as an independent country ?

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11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Aaahh, Mr. van Eck!  Always concerned for the young men and their carnal needs.  I salute you!  (I say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

Well, Dan, you take 40 or 50 million men and no wives and you have a powder-keg of social instability.  It will be interesting to see how the CPC deals with that, if the borders are sealed.  Right now, the mail-order bride business is booming in China, with women being imported from Vietnam and Cambodia, and I suspect the other SE Asian countries.   I recall that, post-Vietnam War, there were 55,000 American soldier deaths, and that meant that 55,000 American women had no husbands.  I know some of those women and they were very resentful  (of the government, for having started that war).  Now when you multiply that by a factor of a thousand, you are in a whole new paradigm.

I also note for the readership that, yet once again, our peripatetic  Canadian loser, the coward Mr. Enthalpy (he who hides behind the mask)  the unemployed government bureaucrat from Edmonton, is back at his usual antics of putting red-arrows on my above post.  He is such an utter asshole. He sits out there, fired from a government job  (and in Canada, nobody ever gets fired from the Government, that is perpetual employment), and sits on his duff collecting the chomage. The best he can do is write his crap on Oilprice.  

Edited by Selva
see if I care
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11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

The concerns are real, but not an issue for the CCP; if the borders are sealed, and even if they are not(!), and a man makes himself a problem for ANY reason, he can easily be carted away and dealt with as per the CCP handbook (Clause "Z" - General issues not covered by Clauses A - Y).  Death by insanity.  Who's sanity?  Who cares; just get rid of the problem (I do NOT say this in jest, in case anyone doesn't get it).

Just to poke the people who believe whatever official narrative that the CCP presents to the world ... some anonymous wag (not me) commented:

20200210_094326.jpg.9d36b2a0a6c1f9a0e30554321509b842.jpg

Currently I tend to think the virus escaped accidentally from the Wuhan research lab.

Funny how the Hong Kong pro - democracy protest has miraculously disappeared.  

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@Enthalpic Traditional Fleshlights are already so passe. If get really lonely at the rig in the middle of nowhere buy a motorized version, synchronized with VR helmet. If you are freak of morality and ethics AI will also attach your wifes head on the body of the younger virtual substitute. Enjoy the ride !

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

I also note for the readership that, yet once again, our peripatetic  Canadian loser, the coward Mr. Enthalpy (he who hides behind the mask)  the unemployed government bureaucrat from Edmonton, is back at his usual antics of putting red-arrows on my above post.  He is such an utter asshole. He sits out there, fired from a government job  (and in Canada, nobody ever gets fired from the Government, that is perpetual employment), and sits on his duff collecting the chomage. The best he can do is write his crap on Oilprice.  

Not sure why you feel the need to spread lies.  Whatever - every time you post it just makes you look immature.

P.S you don't get unemployment if you resign (which I did) or get fired (which is near impossible).  You are also not considered unemployed if you are not seeking work.  I have more than enough money to last me 'til the end of my days.

Cheers.

Edited by Enthalpic
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On 2/3/2020 at 2:55 AM, Marcin2 said:

Yes Trump reinvented wheel

Policy is adjusted to current needs. After WW2 US was most competitive so free trade was meme of the day. In 21st century US is falling behind many countries in many areas so it needs tariffs again to protect domestic market.

China is against tariffs cause as the largest manufacturing hub of everything apart from semiconductors is more competitive than US.

Very simple No need to create unnecessary ideology to these simple economic interdependencies.

I'm sorry, but ANY company that has the full backing of an entire country to be able to sell it's products BELOW the cost of making them and still be able to stay in business because the government fully backs them has a VERY unfair trade practice going on, and that is exactly the reason the tariffs were instituted in the first place. It is hugely unfair to every other company in the entire world to try to compete against any company that CAN NOT lose with that sort of financial backing, they can under sell EVERYONE that way. People say they want free trade and open borders? Get rid of that kind of support and we'll think about it. Think about it this way as well, that company sold steel on the open market and undercuts everyone in the world, and eventually all the other countries with all the other companies no go under, now CHINA is the only one left making steel. What happens now? Crank it up and stick it to everyone, there is no where else to get those goods now so they get to name whatever price they want. Think about the Tungsten market and how it has been cornered by the Chinese government.... Those of you in the EU need to consider this fact and it does have a direct impact on your lives whether you like it or not. Open borders and free trade is a great idea, when everyone is playing on a level field, but nothing in China is what I would consider level. That is why we have tariffs on goods coming from China, and you can be glad it's not me doing it, everything would have gotten at least a 50% tariff from China.

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1 hour ago, SERWIN said:

I'm sorry, but ANY company that has the full backing of an entire country to be able to sell it's products BELOW the cost of making them and still be able to stay in business because the government fully backs them has a VERY unfair trade practice going on, and that is exactly the reason the tariffs were instituted in the first place.

I really do not get this argumentation about selling below market prices parroted by Americans: be it Japanese in 1980s or Chinese now, face it some economies are more competitive than United States, China has much higher productivity of labor per 1 dollar of wages than US, at least 3 times at blue collar level.

China has economies of scale not available to anybody, China will ALWAYS be the most competitive in many industries like steel, natural resources especially rare metals reprocessing (like tungsten).

Chinese steel mills could have all fixed costs in this very capital intensive industry covered by domestic demand. And also some part of variable costs, like labour - they will not change head count, whether they export 5-10% of their output capacity (and this is 100 million tons that evectively can completely kill global steel industry) or not (steel capacity is at 80%+ of utilization). So only some variable costs need to be taken under consideration in calculating break even price of the additional 1 ton of manufactured steel, and as a consequence Chinese steel is the most competitive in the world.

Is this dangerous for all smaller countries ? ABSOLUTELY

Do we have to protect our small markets against Chinese domination because we are all small countries in comparison with China (US also is small!) ? ABSOLUTELY

But please be fair and face the reality that China just has to be more competitive in some industries.

Tools used by countries around the world: tax incentives, government grants, large government procurement, competitive devaluation, difficult industrial standards, not using metric system, state share in R&D effort, industrial policies that: enhance R&D, government subsidized vocational training, clustering of industries in special privileged zones that enable more efficient creation of supply chains. Tell me of any other that China uses and is not abundant in the world. And please also argument that this tool is unfair.

 

Edited by Marcin2
typo
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Today, China is begging to have the new Trade deal signed. Trumps really and truly have great plan for America and his citizen. America is great again as Trumps doggedness is paying of in securing great economic benefits for the United state. Today, IRS and Job is up as never before. A record Job opportunity.

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14 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

@Enthalpic Traditional Fleshlights are already so passe. If get really lonely at the rig in the middle of nowhere buy a motorized version, synchronized with VR helmet. If you are freak of morality and ethics AI will also attach your wifes head on the body of the younger virtual substitute. Enjoy the ride !

Marcin, have you considered getting professional help? 😂

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“China has much higher productivity of labor per 1 dollar of wages than US, at least 3 times at blue collar level.”

When you only pay the worker a dollar a day....of course you do!

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”Tools used by countries around the world:”

Have you ever used Chinese manufactured tools and equipment? The quality and quality control is pathetic....and dangerous to the user!

I was forced to use two knock-off Chinese made copies of Oilwell A1700PT mud pumps on one job (the bean counters just looked at the relative cost). You could take a bearing/race assembly off of one pump and try to fit it on the other. It wouldn’t fit. The pockets had been machined to different dimensions! A knock-on effect of this is trying to keep suitable spares!

On another job in MENA, was forced to have a drilling spool fabricated in China. I demanded third party inspection. No problem, they hired a third party inspector from the same town the spool was being  manufactured in!

Thankfully the spool was accidentally dropped prior to installation...a multitude of radial cracks were discovered when it was re-inspected. Keep in mind that this was a pressure containing component!

I could go on and on, but you get the picture...

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(edited)

On 2/9/2020 at 12:31 AM, 0R0 said:

You do realize that the point of supply side is that the downstream margins matter more than extraction and farm profits, which is why you attempt to lower their capital costs and taxation, because the low basic material output prices increase the margins and thus real incomes of the rest of the economy, same for intermediate production. The upstream economy is low margin commodities so the effect of lower capital costs and lower taxes is to lower product prices. 

But the retaliatory tariffs and 0 quotas did in the farmers. That was China's doing. The hit to US manufacturing is temporary and would have happened anyway as China labor costs were rising too quickly while productivity wasn't. The supply chains had to leave China in any case, just that tariffs and now Coronavirus, are making that process that much more urgent. 

 

Excuses, excuses.  The results are what matters and the results show:

1. Farmers got screwed.

2. Manufactures in America aren't benefiting (though the ones in Vietnam are- Make Vietnam Great Again is indeed working).  Some supply lines might move out of China, but the majority are still there.  And when they move, they're not moving to America but elsewhere in Asia or Africa.

3. In the meantime China is extending their influence in Africa and South America.  

Personally I think the blue states should be more supportive of Trump because his economic policies have been HUGELY beneficial to them, and the red states should hate him more.  Instead, everyone's gotten brainwashed by their tribalism.  If I could have thought of an economic policy that benefits blue states at the expense of red states, Trump's would be it.  The evidence so far is clear: blue states have benefited from Trump, red states have not.  I.e. a continuation of what was going on with Obama.  

Edited by Zhong Lu
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