CoV-19: China, WHO, myth vs fact

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

10 hours ago, frankfurter said:

wow, amazing. For the 1st time I am in agreement with a declared enemy.  Should I be prosecuted for treason?

Ah you had me with Batman classic. 

I don't want to be anyone's enemy but admit to strident language.

I'm old now and jumping to conclusions is some of the only exercise I get anymore. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

In fairness, smallpox was found in an unprotected storage room in the USA.

I couldn't open the link but isn't this a very old story?

I recall reading about something like this at least five years ago. 

Smallpox would certainly be worse than the coronavirus but I think this is rehashed old news.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

51 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I couldn't open the link but isn't this a very old story?

I recall reading about something like this at least five years ago. 

Smallpox would certainly be worse than the coronavirus but I think this is rehashed old news.

It was 2014 - somewhat dated yes, but I wouldn't call it very old.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Bob D said:

 

Link #2    Zero viral agent releases.  Simply updating safety measures.  Who doesn't agree with this? 

 

 

If the continuous improvement (a requirement for ISO labs) was initiated by the lab - kudos to them.

However, that wasn't the case, they had their license revoked after a failed audit.

 

"last month the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – the government’s public health body – stripped the base of its license to handle highly restricted “select agents”, which includes Ebola, smallpox and anthrax.

The unusual move follows an inspection by the CDC at Fort Detrick which found several problems with new procedures used to decontaminate waste water."

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Okay, so here's the complete story. Back when I was still working with viruses, there was X amount of smallpox virus. The US and the then USSR got together and agreed upon dividing all the known smallpox in the world between them. The US stock went into the CDC in Atlanta. Soon thereafter--I can't tell you the exact date because I don't remember it--the Soviets built an equivalent of the CDC in Siberia. They named their level 4 lab the Vector Institute. 

They have had a few problems and so have we. As you pointed out, some smallpox was found in a lab, or a cloakroom, or something here in the US. In about 1970 the Soviets had a problem too: a little mini-epidemic of smallpox in a village close to the Institute. Many thought they had been preparing a bio-weapon. Than, about 20 years ago, one of the now Russian lab workers pricked her finger and died from Ebola. Last year they had a gas explosion at the Vector Institute. 

Bottom line: just as you would expect, when you work with something highly infectious and tiny and you're in a highly sophisticated environment, things happen. They just do. I don't think, for example, that the careless smallpox vial found in the US was the only one. 

Various agencies have been after an agreement to destroy all the known smallpox for a very long time--after all, nobody is immune anymore. But if the CDC destroys its smallpox, and Vector says they have but didn't really, the CDC would be at a very severe disadvantage should they ever need to form a vaccine. Ebola, Marburg, smallpox, rabies, SERS, all these bad-assed viruses are all stored both in the Vector Institute and the CDC and God knows where else--but almost certainly the Wuhan lab has some if not all of these too. And they always will be dangerous and possibly even for sale if a rogue country gets one.

And some day there will be an epidemic from a virus that escaped a lab somewhere. That's the reason it wasn't all that crazy to query whether one had escaped the level 4 lab in Wuhan, but when I mentioned it about twenty people jumped down my throat, so the hell with it.

But if you think it's outrageous that a sealed vial of smallpox was found lying around, think several labs around the world, with several folks dealing with them. It's a precarious world out there! 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

If the claim is that accidental release is what makes the Chinese Communist Party utter morons, I don't believe that's the case.

What makes them utter morons is their response, and their lack of respect for human dignity.

They are indeed locking people in their homes via strong chains and welding doors shut. 

https://twitter.com/freddie1999/status/1226289264129867777

 

Communist China will kill FAR more Chinese through fire/starvation than Coronavirus. 

[Bob D + 562]

1 hour ago, GunnysGhost said:

Communist China will kill FAR more Chinese through fire/starvation than Coronavirus. 

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/14/breaking-news/japanese-man-confirmed-as-coronavirus-patient-after-returning-from-hawaii-vacation/

I hope you're right GunnysGhost.  The next 20-30 days is going to be very important for the coronavirus and humanity.

[GunnysGhost + 157]

50 minutes ago, Bob D said:

1 hour ago, GunnysGhost said:

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/14/breaking-news/japanese-man-confirmed-as-coronavirus-patient-after-returning-from-hawaii-vacation/

I hope you're right GunnysGhost.  The next 20-30 days is going to be very important for the coronavirus and humanity.

Agreed.  I see the biggest issue is if it stays viable on airplane seatbelt buckles for longer than a few hours (i.e. another route of transmission than person-person)

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050068/coronavirus-your-toilet-how-hong-kong-policy

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Well, there's this: pretty soon springtime will be coming--I saw a few buds this morning. Sunshine and rising humidity are nature's best antivirals. 

There is always light at the end of the tunnel. But the IEA is jumping on the bandwagon, in their inimitable fashion. 

And I hope China begins to recover. Like the US in the aftermath of the poliovirus epidemic, I hope they join hands with the other countries of the world to try to make sure this doesn't happen again. Our CDC is the finest in the world. But Chinese people are generally very smart, so there's no reason not to share data and try to squelch this thing. Last I heard, they had still refused our CDC in there . . . and there's just no way to spin that but negatively, because the CDC is really the greatest organization regarding communicable diseases in the world. 

The greatest shot in the arm to the world economy and certainly to the oil and gas market would be to work together. And damn it, if they can't use some LNG right now, everyone should just back off and eat it. Later on, when they are on their feet, they pay a little more. That's just me. I'm probably an idiot in business.

[frankfurter + 562]

Nobody would dispute the CDC reputation.  If the CDC is uninvited, you can attribute this to the immense hostility coming from your media and government.  You may ponder the consequences of this hostility. 

But, as I know someone in the CDC, I can say no foreigner is too keen to work at the front line in the epicentre.  Would you? 

 

[frankfurter + 562]

12 hours ago, GunnysGhost said:

If the claim is that accidental release is what makes the Chinese Communist Party utter morons, I don't believe that's the case.

What makes them utter morons is their response, and their lack of respect for human dignity.

They are indeed locking people in their homes via strong chains and welding doors shut. 

https://twitter.com/freddie1999/status/1226289264129867777

 

Communist China will kill FAR more Chinese through fire/starvation than Coronavirus. 

So what would YOU do to resolve this crisis?   

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

On 2/14/2020 at 8:18 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Various agencies have been after an agreement to destroy all the known smallpox for a very long time--after all, nobody is immune anymore.

Nobody is fully immune to smallpox anymore, but there's a good likelihood that vaccinated people have enough immunity to ward off death.

Imagine the long term consequences of that, though.  Potentially 30% of workers under 40 die while all of us old codgers are there demanding our social security and pension cheques.

[GunnysGhost + 157]

12 hours ago, frankfurter said:

Nobody would dispute the CDC reputation.  If the CDC is uninvited, you can attribute this to the immense hostility coming from your media and government.  You may ponder the consequences of this hostility. 

But, as I know someone in the CDC, I can say no foreigner is too keen to work at the front line in the epicentre.  Would you? 

 

 

8 hours ago, frankfurter said:

So what would YOU do to resolve this crisis?   

 

You seem to have the answer right in front of you. 

For starters, I wouldn't be the CCP: unprepared & ignorant on biodefense.  All this despite having been devastated by SARS and bird flu in recent memory.  Fool CCP once - shame on CCP, fool CCP twice, thrice....  same.

 

The reason that virology experts are 'meh' on the thought of an Ebola outbreak in the US is that the CDC has rapid response teams and perform audits of hospitals, which are required to have enough stocks of anti-virals for each hospital to start providing CARE to hundreds of patients at a time until the CDC provides backup.  CARE is a concept the CCP seems completely foreign to. 

It's not even worth addressing 'how would you provide care for 60,000 patients' because, as we've all already stated, the CCP being understaffed, under trained, and had no testing centers or test kits available, and immediately started quarantining sick with non-sick is the reason it ever got to epidemic proportions. 

Not to mention jailing the journalists whose only crimes was interviewing hospital staff to discover they have no ability to test and confirm the illness. 

 

The reason I stated that even 3rd world countries would have better responses than the draconian CCP, is that they would relinquish control and put the military and police and health services at the disposal of foreign experts like, say, the CDC.  In that way, even West Africa can nip Ebola in the bud. 

The CDC would indeed not go to the front lines to be 'extra sets of hands' or 'butts in seats'.  They react to hot zones by taking control.  That's what they are good at. 

So being 'powerful yet stupid' is what is exacerbating this issue, because the last thing the CCP will ever do is relinquish any form of control.  The Chinese people are once again the victims of their apparatchik.  So communism goes....

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 2/13/2020 at 4:34 AM, frankfurter said:

The hysteria surrounding the CoV-19 virus is mounting, certainly in this forum. But what are the facts versus myths?

From the U.S. Military Times:

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic

In this week's briefing, American coronavirus evacuees from China arrive at U.S. military bases, Marines try out new amphibious combat vehicles, a wounded Navy destroyer returns to the sea, and troops may get purple hearts for injuries received from Iran's missile attack. Those stories and more on The Briefing for the week of Feb. 7, 2020.

 

U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.

An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.

The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.

U.S. Northern Command said Wednesday it was directed the Joint Staff Feb. 1 to commence “prudent planning” in their assigned role synchronizing the department’s plans for pandemic flu and disease.

But in no way “does the planning indicate a greater likelihood of an event developing. As military professionals, planning for a range of contingencies is something we owe the American people," Navy Lt. Cmdr. Mike Hatfield said.

"We coordinate with other combatant commands to assess potential impacts in the event of a pandemic and we ensure the U.S. military is poised to respond as required,” Hatfield said in a statement. “The military profession fosters a culture of planning, and the fact that we are coordinating planning efforts across the geographical combatant commands is consistent with how we prepare to respond, if directed.”

According to the Marine Corps message MARADMIN 082/20, commanders are to review their disease containment plans and take “preparatory and precautionary actions” to protect service members, installations and ships.

This includes ensuring that the plans contain procedures for “response, isolation, quarantine, restriction of movement and community based intervention” as well as developing measures to contain and treat those possibly exposed.

The Marine Corps’ mission, according to the message, is to “prepare for potential outbreaks of [COVID19].” The service must “mitigate, respond, and recover from the effects in order to maintain force readiness.”

COVID19, the flu-like virus that originated in Wuhan, China, is now responsible for killing more than 1,100 people and sickening at least 45,000. While the rate of new cases has fallen in the past several days in Wuhan and Hubei province, the death toll continues to climb, topping more than 100 in a single day Monday in China.

The number of cases in the U.S. remains at 13.

DoD 3551-13 calls for preparing for a pandemic and ensuring open lines of communication in the community, diseases surveillance and detection, response and containment.

According to the service messages, military commanders have been asked to confine any service member who has been to China since Feb. 2 to their residences or, if they live in an open barracks or share a bathroom with others, restrict them to a temporary lodging facility for 14 days.

The restricted service members will be assessed daily for fever by medical personnel by phone or in person and wear protective gear if they personally conduct the medical checks, according to the messages. Should they display symptoms, they must seek medical attention, but call their military treatment facility first to inform them of their travel.

The Marine Corps message advises civilian employees and contractors, as well as any family members returning from China, to follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance to detect the virus and prevent its spread, which include voluntarily remaining at home, limiting close contact with people and animals, self-monitoring and seeking medical care if symptoms develop.

The Navy has included visits to Hong Kong and Macau as part of its directive and gives commanders the flexibility to decide whether they need to confine a service member who has had close contact with a person who has traveled to the region.

The Marine Corps also has told commanders to work with military treatment facilities on developing and executing any response and stay up-to-date on CDC guidance regarding the virus.

The Army issued a service-wide message Jan. 31 on the coronavirus advising its members on the illness’s symptoms and instructing them on reducing their risk of catching the infection. The message was issued the same day the Pentagon released an advisory about how service members can reduce the risk of catching the disease.

It does not publicly release its service-wide messages and has not issued any since the executive order.

The Air Force does not publicly disclose its service-wide messages.

Since the outbreak began in late December, individual commands, especially those in Asia, have enforced confinement of service members with a travel history to China. Earlier this month, U.S. Forces Korea began confining troops who had traveled to China for 14 days.

Also earlier this month, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command restricted all Defense Department travel to mainland China and recalled all travelers to the country home.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Monday that the likelihood of more cases being diagnosed in the U.S. of COVID19 is high, but added that the chance of contracting the disease outside China remains low.

She said the biggest infectious disease threat to the American public this year remains the influenza virus, which has sickened more than 22 million and killed at least 12,000.

Precautions against the coronavirus, which include hand-washing, staying home if ill and sneezing or coughing into a tissue or sleeve, also cut down on flu transmission.

“We are taking all appropriate precautionary measures to prevent any potential spread of the virus,” U.S. Forces Korea commander Army Gen. Robert Abrams Feb. 2. “Key for everyone is to follow standard hygiene protocols, and if not feeling well — get screened ASAP!”

 

=========================================

Defense secretary Esper issued an executive order for NORTHCOM implementing plan 3551-13 (department of defense implementation plan for pandemic influenza).

If you would like to see the unclassified details search Homeland Security:

https://www.hsdl.org/?search=&searchfield=&all=department+of+defense+implementation+plan+for+pandemic+influenza&collection=public&submitted=Search

 

Unclassified 2006 PDF version attached:

Department of Defense Implemenation Plan for Pandemic Influenza - Aug 2006 .pdf

 

[Bob D + 562]

On 2/15/2020 at 10:20 PM, frankfurter said:

Nobody would dispute the CDC reputation.  If the CDC is uninvited, you can attribute this to the immense hostility coming from your media and government.  You may ponder the consequences of this hostility. 

But, as I know someone in the CDC, I can say no foreigner is too keen to work at the front line in the epicentre.  Would you? 

 

You are one confused, biased and illogical man.  The CDC is the preeminent organization for identifying, controlling, and advising on disease.  PERIOD!!  That they are uninvited shows the utter lack of respect for humanity of your beloved Chinese communists.   

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

From the U.S. Military Times:

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic

In this week's briefing, American coronavirus evacuees from China arrive at U.S. military bases, Marines try out new amphibious combat vehicles, a wounded Navy destroyer returns to the sea, and troops may get purple hearts for injuries received from Iran's missile attack. Those stories and more on The Briefing for the week of Feb. 7, 2020.

Thank you so much, Tom.  While I know what I can expect of our Armed Forces in situations like this, it is damn reassuring to see it in writing.  Thanks again.

[BJblue + 12]

I don't think any of us doubts the ability of either the US or China to always fully maintain total control of these killers. But, all the consequential evidence leads me to believe this "killer" was accidentally released from that BSL-4 lab in Wuhan. What scares me most is the CCP seems willing to do anything to hide and deny this into eternity.   We shall see.  

[George8944 + 128]

Just call me insensitive and greedy.   I am less concerned about the human death toll, then the economic toll.   As we are seeing in China, it is hard to restart an economy while people are still getting sick.  Personally, I think this will eventually crash the markets if China can't reboot very soon.  

I put very tight stop loss orders on everything in my 401K and IRAs.  Since I'm still at risk to a real, big time, gap-down crash,  I'm still concerned.  My other alternative is going to cash, which, depending upon my alcohol consumption, sometimes sounds like a very good idea.   I've pretty much written off this year.  If I can close out 2020 with as much money as I started, I will be dang happy.   

[Bob D + 562]

55 minutes ago, George8944 said:

Just call me insensitive and greedy.   I am less concerned about the human death toll, then the economic toll.   As we are seeing in China, it is hard to restart an economy while people are still getting sick.  Personally, I think this will eventually crash the markets if China can't reboot very soon.  

I put very tight stop loss orders on everything in my 401K and IRAs.  Since I'm still at risk to a real, big time, gap-down crash,  I'm still concerned.  My other alternative is going to cash, which, depending upon my alcohol consumption, sometimes sounds like a very good idea.   I've pretty much written off this year.  If I can close out 2020 with as much money as I started, I will be dang happy.   

I won't call you insensitive or greedy because I think you are absolutely correct.  The devastation to humanity will be far greater if the world economy crashes than if coronavirus reaches pandemic stages.  How many die of starvation, violence, cold/heat and isolation if economic pipelines for food, medicine and energy are disrupted.  

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 hours ago, BJblue said:

I don't think any of us doubts the ability of either the US or China to always fully maintain total control of these killers. But, all the consequential evidence leads me to believe this "killer" was accidentally released from that BSL-4 lab in Wuhan. What scares me most is the CCP seems willing to do anything to hide and deny this into eternity.   We shall see.  

Well we got to see how well the mullahs handled shooting down a civilian airliner. Oddly enough they're still in power. 

[Hotone + 412]

On 2/17/2020 at 1:18 AM, GunnysGhost said:

 

You seem to have the answer right in front of you. 

For starters, I wouldn't be the CCP: unprepared & ignorant on biodefense.  All this despite having been devastated by SARS and bird flu in recent memory.  Fool CCP once - shame on CCP, fool CCP twice, thrice....  same.

 

The reason that virology experts are 'meh' on the thought of an Ebola outbreak in the US is that the CDC has rapid response teams and perform audits of hospitals, which are required to have enough stocks of anti-virals for each hospital to start providing CARE to hundreds of patients at a time until the CDC provides backup.  CARE is a concept the CCP seems completely foreign to. 

It's not even worth addressing 'how would you provide care for 60,000 patients' because, as we've all already stated, the CCP being understaffed, under trained, and had no testing centers or test kits available, and immediately started quarantining sick with non-sick is the reason it ever got to epidemic proportions. 

Not to mention jailing the journalists whose only crimes was interviewing hospital staff to discover they have no ability to test and confirm the illness. 

 

The reason I stated that even 3rd world countries would have better responses than the draconian CCP, is that they would relinquish control and put the military and police and health services at the disposal of foreign experts like, say, the CDC.  In that way, even West Africa can nip Ebola in the bud. 

The CDC would indeed not go to the front lines to be 'extra sets of hands' or 'butts in seats'.  They react to hot zones by taking control.  That's what they are good at. 

So being 'powerful yet stupid' is what is exacerbating this issue, because the last thing the CCP will ever do is relinquish any form of control.  The Chinese people are once again the victims of their apparatchik.  So communism goes....

The US has 'upgraded' China from being a strategic competitor to being a strategic enemy.  It is now waging war against China on multiple fronts.   https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/16/618822/US-waging-war-against-China

There is no way the CDC can be allowed into China.  Just recall the harm that the US has done to do many other countries recently and think of the mischief that they want to wreak on China.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

NYT subscription article.  Full article saved on Archive.today for free.

CCP is going to be furious.

U.S. Designates China’s Official Media as Operatives of the Communist State

[Bob D + 562]

US Confirmed cases jumped from 15 to 29 overnight.  The entire increase is in Omaha Nebraska.  This has to be a quarantine issue right??  

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

36 minutes ago, Bob D said:

US Confirmed cases jumped from 15 to 29 overnight.  The entire increase is in Omaha Nebraska.  This has to be a quarantine issue right??  

Omaha always gets the infectious cases--special hospital.