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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0ejxH2D1Q

These days, sifting fake from real news is darn difficult. The vid appears to be a plea from a concerned individual, alleging a massive cover-up of the covid19.

So far, this flu season, CDC reports 26 million cases, 250,000 hospitalisations, 14,000 deaths, with maybe 3 months yet to go.  Apparently, a good portion of the flu victims were 'tested' and found not to have the normal corona flu, but suspected to have the covid19.  Seems NYC and LA have implemented emergency bylaws for inspections. 

Any truth to this? 

 

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Main issue is that the Flu has an anti virus and Novel Corona Virus has no cure as of yet, despite the death toll comparisons this is the driving factor and press coverage.

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Keyword search 'Russian misinformation campaign blaming US for Corona Virus'.

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BREAKING: my live on the ground report:

Folks that call in sick return to work (or have REALLY good body doubles) 😅

No mass quarantines, nobody turning up missing, no unusual 'duck and cover' warnings from the government, no elderly relatives dying unexpectedly in the NW, SW, NE, SE, or MW.   No rush to get kids to hospitals. 

Stay tuned for more on my segment Nothing Out of the Ordinary USA.

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On 2/23/2020 at 2:48 AM, frankfurter said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0ejxH2D1Q

These days, sifting fake from real news is darn difficult. The vid appears to be a plea from a concerned individual, alleging a massive cover-up of the covid19.

So far, this flu season, CDC reports 26 million cases, 250,000 hospitalisations, 14,000 deaths, with maybe 3 months yet to go.  Apparently, a good portion of the flu victims were 'tested' and found not to have the normal corona flu, but suspected to have the covid19.  Seems NYC and LA have implemented emergency bylaws for inspections. 

Any truth to this? 

 

Idk that I would call this 'massive' (especially compared to China actually arresting people for things like this) but it wouldn't surprise me to find the US - especially the media - is suppressing information to fulfill an agenda.

I actually can't believe it's somehow NOT here - way too much regular travel between the US and China. The thing I see is that we're 1)not testing people who don't have a direct connection, and 2) with a 14-34 day latency period, were only starting to get people with symptoms.

I expect this to grow rapidly in the western world in the next month... but we'll see. I'd love to be wrong.

On 2/23/2020 at 9:36 AM, GunnysGhost said:

BREAKING: my live on the ground report:

Folks that call in sick return to work (or have REALLY good body doubles) 😅

No mass quarantines, nobody turning up missing, no unusual 'duck and cover' warnings from the government, no elderly relatives dying unexpectedly in the NW, SW, NE, SE, or MW.   No rush to get kids to hospitals. 

Stay tuned for more on my segment Nothing Out of the Ordinary USA.

And yeah - currently. No one seems to think this is that bad. I keep seeing references to the 'flu' season trying to minimize how bad this is.

This was in China starting November, but didnt' really hit until ~2 months later in mid January. 

Are you thinking we've so far dodged the bullet?

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31 minutes ago, Otis11 said:

Are you thinking we've so far dodged the bullet?

Mostly. Again, this is a virus that attacks the alveolar cells, those surrounding the air pockets in the lungs. Smoking damages the integrity of alveolar cells. So does pollution. The more you smoke and the more carbonaceous pollution you're exposed to, the worse shape your alveolar cells are in. 

The higher smoking rates in China and Iran have undoubtedly contributed mightily to their high mortality rates. 

The eventual upshot from this? Well, the Chinese are a smart people. A drive will almost certainly result, against smoking. They have almost 5,000 mostly small utility plants that almost uniformly use coal. I imagine they're going to rethink that. Hopefully, they'll switch to LNG, which is quite a bit cleaner-burning than pipeline NG. I would imagine they will push harder than ever for EV's and renewables. 

We coming up on spring: sunshine, warmer temps, humidity--all good antivirals. Additionally, Greffex supposedly has a vaccine--just waiting for some animal trials. 

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8 hours ago, Otis11 said:

I expect this to grow rapidly in the western world in the next month... but we'll see. I'd love to be wrong.

And yeah - currently. No one seems to think this is that bad. I keep seeing references to the 'flu' season trying to minimize how bad this is.

This was in China starting November, but didnt' really hit until ~2 months later in mid January. 

Are you thinking we've so far dodged the bullet?

I'm not saying that it can't or won't get established here.  

But I suspect the OPs M.O. was to spend 3 days finding a way portray the situation in the US as similar to China's massive co_k-up to make China look less stupid.  

And in that vein I'd call this a swing-and-miss ;) 

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On 2/23/2020 at 12:48 AM, frankfurter said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0ejxH2D1Q

These days, sifting fake from real news is darn difficult. The vid appears to be a plea from a concerned individual, alleging a massive cover-up of the covid19.

So far, this flu season, CDC reports 26 million cases, 250,000 hospitalisations, 14,000 deaths, with maybe 3 months yet to go.  Apparently, a good portion of the flu victims were 'tested' and found not to have the normal corona flu, but suspected to have the covid19.  Seems NYC and LA have implemented emergency bylaws for inspections. 

Any truth to this? 

 

lol, 417 views? I wonder how many your post drove there? 

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22 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Mostly. Again, this is a virus that attacks the alveolar cells, those surrounding the air pockets in the lungs. Smoking damages the integrity of alveolar cells. So does pollution. The more you smoke and the more carbonaceous pollution you're exposed to, the worse shape your alveolar cells are in. 

The higher smoking rates in China and Iran have undoubtedly contributed mightily to their high mortality rates. 

The eventual upshot from this? Well, the Chinese are a smart people. A drive will almost certainly result, against smoking. They have almost 5,000 mostly small utility plants that almost uniformly use coal. I imagine they're going to rethink that. Hopefully, they'll switch to LNG, which is quite a bit cleaner-burning than pipeline NG. I would imagine they will push harder than ever for EV's and renewables. 

We coming up on spring: sunshine, warmer temps, humidity--all good antivirals. Additionally, Greffex supposedly has a vaccine--just waiting for some animal trials. 

I sure hope you're right Gerry... Right now my stock bets are starting to pay off, but I'd gladly take a loss to be wrong on where we're headed.

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22 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The eventual upshot from this? Well, the Chinese are a smart people. A drive will almost certainly result, against smoking. They have almost 5,000 mostly small utility plants that almost uniformly use coal. I imagine they're going to rethink that. Hopefully, they'll switch to LNG, which is quite a bit cleaner-burning than pipeline NG. I would imagine they will push harder than ever for EV's and renewables. 

China needs to have headroom in their current accounts and capital accounts and "capital leakage" to be able to displace coal with LNG. As of end 2019, there was no room for more LNG (or oil for that matter) their trade commitments can only be met with huge capital inflows or with a huge export spurt, or a cutoff of outgoing tourism.  In order to conserve forex they have already moved steel production to local low grade ores that are blasted as opposed to high grade ores from Brazil and Australia that produce high grade steel via arc furnaces. Coal fired electricity and steel are expanding still. 

They essentially have a full month of only 20% of normal export revenue. We will have to see what their reserve position is at the next publication. 

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14 hours ago, GunnysGhost said:

I'm not saying that it can't or won't get established here.  

But I suspect the OPs M.O. was to spend 3 days finding a way portray the situation in the US as similar to China's massive co_k-up to make China look less stupid.  

And in that vein I'd call this a swing-and-miss ;) 

Should have looked at the empty headed actions in Japan. All folks should take their best practices guidelines from Singapore. Particularly aggressive testing and full transparency and disclosure. 

CDC is deliberately "not looking".

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5 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

China needs to have headroom in their current accounts and capital accounts and "capital leakage" to be able to displace coal with LNG. As of end 2019, there was no room for more LNG (or oil for that matter) their trade commitments can only be met with huge capital inflows or with a huge export spurt, or a cutoff of outgoing tourism.  In order to conserve forex they have already moved steel production to local low grade ores that are blasted as opposed to high grade ores from Brazil and Australia that produce high grade steel via arc furnaces. Coal fired electricity and steel are expanding still. 

They essentially have a full month of only 20% of normal export revenue. We will have to see what their reserve position is at the next publication. 

Xi has likely already figured out that the mortality with this zoonotic virus is <1% in people with healthy lungs but jumps up >10% in those with unhealthy lungs. Heck, the whole world knows this by now. If an alveolar cell surrounding the air pockets has membrane integrity issues due to smoking or microscopic particulate matter of a carbonaceous nature, it's going to result in a high mortality/morbidity. 

The economic toll from shutting down his country has been massive--enough that converting coal-fired utility plants to LNG would be a pittance in comparison. He is in a position of not having an option: SARS, now this. Next year there will be another one--these single-stranded RNA viruses coming from wildlife are emerging as the #1 threat to the global community. 

Xi is very likely going to get past this one. But if his country comes up with another one in 2021, nobody in their right mind will want to use China as a trading/building partner. Xi knows this. It has always been as daffy as can be, an EV parked in a charging station providing electricity that came from lignite-fired coal utility plants. But man, after this, it's just nuts. Sometimes you just have to apportion money differently than you had figured. This is such a time for President Xi.

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4 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Xi has likely already figured out that the mortality with this zoonotic virus is <1% in people with healthy lungs but jumps up >10% in those with unhealthy lungs. Heck, the whole world knows this by now. If an alveolar cell surrounding the air pockets has membrane integrity issues due to smoking or microscopic particulate matter of a carbonaceous nature, it's going to result in a high mortality/morbidity. 

The economic toll from shutting down his country has been massive--enough that converting coal-fired utility plants to LNG would be a pittance in comparison. He is in a position of not having an option: SARS, now this. Next year there will be another one--these single-stranded RNA viruses coming from wildlife are emerging as the #1 threat to the global community. 

Xi is very likely going to get past this one. But if his country comes up with another one in 2021, nobody in their right mind will want to use China as a trading/building partner. Xi knows this. It has always been as daffy as can be, an EV parked in a charging station providing electricity that came from lignite-fired coal utility plants. But man, after this, it's just nuts. Sometimes you just have to apportion money differently than you had figured. This is such a time for President Xi.

The problem for that is that Chinese energy demand is the reflection of infrastructure and lending stimulus (construction) activity which is essential for preventing recession. So they can't cut it down without a recession - which in their leveraged condition would have to morph into a depression - unless they monetize the debt in a big way, which means hyperinflation and a weak Yuan. So they have little choice but to continue. They can't afford the amounts of LNG that would displace their coal consumption substantially. They have never had enough exports to cover that sort of forex bill. Particularly as export revenues are only partially repatriated and SAFE (the forex arm of the government) has to twist arms and make threats and break into HK banks in order to get those funds onto the PBOC books.

2018 coal use was <2000 Mil TOE, 1 toe = 39,683,205.411 British thermal units (BTU) or about 79 Billion MMBtu.  Which at $4/MMBtu is $317 Billion, at a more likely price for this marginal increase in volumes $5/MMBtu it is $400 B then you get say $132 B/Q - meaning they would be in the hole all the time. They already import (2018) 123 Bil. MMBtu. Note that their current account turned negative in 2018 when their NG imports were peaking. They have since imported less NG. If you add in the errors and omissions average for last 4 quarters is -$60 B, so net current account is -$15 B/Q. So that the additional amount of NG imports would get China to a -$150B/Q which would drain reserves rather heavily and affect the currency. 

I think that Emperor Xi's court will gladly sacrifice his people's health for financial and geopolitical power gains just as they had so far. 

Annual

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Monthly 

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Current account balance, k = $Billion, quarterly

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Errors and Omissions, quarterly k= $Billion

?type=area&period=10y&lang=en

 

 

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28 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I think that Emperor Xi's court will gladly sacrifice his people's health for financial and geopolitical power gains just as they had so far. 

No, No, it's not just that. It's that one more event like this one is going to turn China into a pariah state, rightly or wrongly. We've gone through SARS, Avian flu varieties, Swine flu varieties, but now with this COVID-19, the whole world is aware that the wet market culture sets the stage for the escape of these zoonotic viruses. 

This is gut-check time. I get your point, which is well made, but Xi simply will come to the reckoning that he has no options but to clean it all up. 

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1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

No, No, it's not just that. It's that one more event like this one is going to turn China into a pariah state, rightly or wrongly. We've gone through SARS, Avian flu varieties, Swine flu varieties, but now with this COVID-19, the whole world is aware that the wet market culture sets the stage for the escape of these zoonotic viruses. 

This is gut-check time. I get your point, which is well made, but Xi simply will come to the reckoning that he has no options but to clean it all up. 

So that means his situation is dire. If he does as you say, his hardliner politburo will demand his head and shut down the country from the world.

While the coastal industrial metros and even upriver Wuhan can survive in a negative cash flow China, they can't carry the inland provinces under those circumstances (they suck money out of the coastal metros in ever increasing amounts, so add this negative cash flow burden and the amounts are just too big) and would pull the coastal provinces away from the center and Beijing. China's unity would be threatened. Which would be an existential threat to the CCP. It may end up isolated in its little corner with all the weak provinces trying to hang on to it as has been the Emperor's fate for the vast majority of China's existence. .  

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12 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Xi has likely already figured out that the mortality with this zoonotic virus is <1% in people with healthy lungs but jumps up >10% in those with unhealthy lungs. Heck, the whole world knows this by now. If an alveolar cell surrounding the air pockets has membrane integrity issues due to smoking or microscopic particulate matter of a carbonaceous nature, it's going to result in a high mortality/morbidity. 

The economic toll from shutting down his country has been massive--enough that converting coal-fired utility plants to LNG would be a pittance in comparison. He is in a position of not having an option: SARS, now this. Next year there will be another one--these single-stranded RNA viruses coming from wildlife are emerging as the #1 threat to the global community. 

Xi is very likely going to get past this one. But if his country comes up with another one in 2021, nobody in their right mind will want to use China as a trading/building partner. Xi knows this. It has always been as daffy as can be, an EV parked in a charging station providing electricity that came from lignite-fired coal utility plants. But man, after this, it's just nuts. Sometimes you just have to apportion money differently than you had figured. This is such a time for President Xi.

A couple years ago China was making a big deal about switching to natural gas Too bad they changed their mind. I would like to know the backstory on that. The upside is that Western manufacturers will look for non China suppliers. 

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23 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

A couple years ago China was making a big deal about switching to natural gas Too bad they changed their mind. I would like to know the backstory on that. The upside is that Western manufacturers will look for non China suppliers. 

They didn't change their minds, they just couldn't afford to.

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18 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Should have looked at the empty headed actions in Japan. All folks should take their best practices guidelines from Singapore. Particularly aggressive testing and full transparency and disclosure. 

CDC is deliberately "not looking".

Virologist Principle Investigator for NIH directly told me that they were receiving samples from Wuhan for study with permission from CDC, but please go on about how actively "not looking" into this 🙄

 

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6 hours ago, GunnysGhost said:

Virologist Principle Investigator for NIH directly told me that they were receiving samples from Wuhan for study with permission from CDC, but please go on about how actively "not looking" into this 🙄

 

They were not arranging kits for front line hospitals, hence the comment "not looking". Just as they didn't guide testing for non China travelers. So that no secondary community spread could be detected by test.

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8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

They were not arranging kits for front line hospitals, hence the comment "not looking". 

That's not an accurate portrayal.

The CDC maintains the kits themselves through the IRR.  The IRR responds to suspected 'front lines'. 

You're just naming your own process as criteria for 'looking'.  

They are indeed looking and continuing to refine the test kits. 

Not every hospital can have hundreds or thousands of test kits since manufacturing only started in January.  It's not realistic.  

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On 2/23/2020 at 2:54 AM, James Regan said:

Main issue is that the Flu has an anti virus and Novel Corona Virus has no cure as of yet, despite the death toll comparisons this is the driving factor and press coverage.

The "cured" patients can have recurrences of the coronavirus. 

https://news.yahoo.com/japan-woman-tests-positive-virus-recovery-062631746.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kcnVkZ2VyZXBvcnQuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAH36ax_MHrOHfURicC6dKOXXTgN3MEKV58RSR67g52tuE81sH17FqT2PSB1yJ9YYEW_RvPaRvSCFzY7kVciL_GhJEsQvRiYVa_M5h2cCxiLwrh0Y2s06FH4P6oRka0wrB5TYf1dRVpD_yFM1Co86sRUYS9x636ayYXrlNesP6jv_

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