On Venezuela

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

venezuelan people dont want civil war simply is not our nature but Maduro has handed out many weapons and created ipopular militias and urban gangs coupled with his deals with guerrilla groups in Colombia which could be a dangerous cocktail for any potential civil war. 

President Trump could take a long term activist strategy if he is reelected. Especially if Republicans control the Senate and House.

Edited February 29, 2020 by ronwagn

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

venezuelan people dont want civil war simply is not our nature but Maduro has handed out many weapons and created ipopular militias and urban gangs coupled with his deals with guerrilla groups in Colombia which could be a dangerous cocktail for any potential civil war. 

How strong is cooperation between America, Columbia, and Venezuela's neighbors? I think a few thousand Venezuelan rebels trained and supplied across the border would allow the people to free themselves.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Vladimir vladimirowicz Putin is going to be here till about 2032 , 2027 at least. This is already planned in Russia. Xi will leave the stage about 2030.

Xi is Emperor for life. Putin is in charge even if not with the title. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

President Trump could take a long term activist strategy if he is reelected. Especially if Republicans control the Senate and House.

What is your definition of ‘activist strategy’?

Invasion is not an option due to the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq (neither of which were an invasion but painted as so).

The Venezuelans MUST invite the US to participate in ANY action!

Asymmetric warfare is the only option if a peaceful solution can not be reached.

Any participation by the US must be well thought out and an exit strategy in place before ANY operations are undertaken.

The Venezuelans MUST take the lead in any operations.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What is your definition of ‘activist strategy’?

Invasion is not an option due to the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq (neither of which were an invasion but painted as so).

The Venezuelans MUST invite the US to participate in ANY action!

Asymmetric warfare is the only option if a peaceful solution can not be reached.

Any participation by the US must be well thought out and an exit strategy in place before ANY operations are undertaken.

The Venezuelans MUST take the lead in any operations.

I am talking about arming Venezuelans who have fled to neighboring countries. They need all equipment and weapons. It should be supplied by neighboring countries and the United States. Maduro only been able to continue to enslave Venezuelans by rewarding his friends. He has broken all the rules of his former democracy. The average Venezuelan is suffering from medical neglect, semi starvation and extreme poverty due to socialist dictators. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by ronwagn
punctuation

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Agreed. Furthermore, training ‘indigenous’ personnel is the ‘bread & butter’ of our Army Special Forces (aka Green Berets).

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

10 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Just a junior partner with teeth.

Welcome to the Chinese century.

China seems to have eaten Tibet and Taiwan.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

They haven’t gotten Taiwan yet!

[jose chalhoub + 388]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

How about the oil glut and low price and poor future outlook on prices? Venezuelan oil is more needed in the next decade it seems to me. That is a long time requiring financial support. Low oil prices hurt the Russian economy far more than the United States economy. 

https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/chinas-coronavirus-crisis-hits-russian-energy-sector-02282020111833.html

venezuela stil is the largest oil reserve of non conventional and heavy oil, has always been a stable country at least aside from the volatility and instability of the Middle East and other oil hotspots and yes i believe the country will always represent an attractive spot for global oil investors despite the bleak outlook for the medium term at least this year depending on the political dynamics and if no major political change occurs and yes if prices continue to drop and with a cost of production per barrel around 30$ for Venezuela it will inflict more pains than what already we are going through since our forex reserves are dwindling, the government is doing fire sales of gold reserves for liquidity and coupled with sanctions things could get even worse in coming months that could push a forced political change. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What is your definition of ‘activist strategy’?

Invasion is not an option due to the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq (neither of which were an invasion but painted as so).

The Venezuelans MUST invite the US to participate in ANY action!

Asymmetric warfare is the only option if a peaceful solution can not be reached.

Any participation by the US must be well thought out and an exit strategy in place before ANY operations are undertaken.

The Venezuelans MUST take the lead in any operations.

excellent argument sir and personally i dont want any foreign intervention or a wide military intervention that could cause many loss of lives. I still believe in a negotiated political change although Maduro insists on clinging to power. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

How strong is cooperation between America, Columbia, and Venezuela's neighbors? I think a few thousand Venezuelan rebels trained and supplied across the border would allow the people to free themselves.

just some exiled low level military officials are thought to be ready to plan an uprising against Maduro but allegedly Guaido and his team abandoned them and left them without resources in the border city of Cucuta. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

14 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Nope, Russia got clear directives, Venezuelan oil will be Russian , this means Chinese.

Russia will got Putin state of dictatorship for Venezuelan oil for 150 years in return. Russians will do anything China will order them to do. 
just straight junior and senior guys relations.

No i still think Russia has other more relevant geopolitical objectives than Venezuela they are still holding here to get cheap oil and possibly take over some assets for the debts Venezuela has with the Kremlin but Eurasia remains the most direct goal to take for Putin, its his strategy, Venezuela is clearly a mess and a faraway country, still russian economy is not that strong as that of China for example which is adopting a more pragmatic strategy on Maduro. Sooner or later Moscow will leave Maduro alone. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

They haven’t gotten Taiwan yet!

LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, is Taiwan.  This old chestnut from June 2017 is always an eye opening read:

FIRST STRIKE China’s Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Going by the findings in that report, if world affairs did sink to the level of all out military action by the Chinese, for whatever reason, they would presumably first take out the U.S. defenses in the area with relatively few boots on the ground.  And then the invasion of Taiwan would be a relatively small affair.  AND once taken (not if) it would provide them with a forward buffer against further action from outside militaries.

I would go so far as to say no other power on earth, even an alliance of powers, could hope to defeat the Chinese over Taiwan, again if world affairs warranted the fast occupation (and accompanying slaughter of any who resist).  The Chinese are supremely well equipped and positioned to do just that, right now.

I hope nothing of that scale ever comes to be, but it would be foolish to think Taiwan is "safe".  Ask any Taiwanese citizen....

 

[BLA + 1,666]

On 2/28/2020 at 4:14 PM, jose chalhoub said:

For now there is not a chance since this has been a failed script in the past even if there is indeed discontent in the lower ranks of the armed forces towards the well connected generals and colonels making fortunes out of controlling key sectors of the economy and even if they think about turning against Maduro it could be trusting they wont be touched or jailed or chased and they dont trust Guaido either, unless they see there is no more chances to get advantages of an already crippled economy in a critical state as is now venezuela's. 

I hear Maduro does not trust his military and surrounds himself with Cuban soldiers he rents from Castro.

[frankfurter + 562]

On 2/28/2020 at 3:47 PM, Marcin2 said:

US, Russia and China just want to grab this 18 trillion dollars underground bounty.

The rest is just bullsh*t ( not your post just the topic of human rights etc., US cares about human rights in 10 countries and does not care in 160 countries, somehow first group is rich in hydrocarbons)

Chinese and Russian narrative is about sovereignty, just because they are still weaker than US, and this solution gives access to oil for everyone.

US on the other hand could and will block oil exports if convenient.

Not directly, some strikes or unhappy event at installations will occur, or red tape, or whatever.

The curse of oil again.

The curse of oil America again.   Venezuela has every right to sell her oil to whomever she chooses.   It is a basic sovereign and human right.  

[frankfurter + 562]

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, is Taiwan.  This old chestnut from June 2017 is always an eye opening read:

FIRST STRIKE China’s Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Going by the findings in that report, if world affairs did sink to the level of all out military action by the Chinese, for whatever reason, they would presumably first take out the U.S. defenses in the area with relatively few boots on the ground.  And then the invasion of Taiwan would be a relatively small affair.  AND once taken (not if) it would provide them with a forward buffer against further action from outside militaries.

I would go so far as to say no other power on earth, even an alliance of powers, could hope to defeat the Chinese over Taiwan, again if world affairs warranted the fast occupation (and accompanying slaughter of any who resist).  The Chinese are supremely well equipped and positioned to do just that, right now.

I hope nothing of that scale ever comes to be, but it would be foolish to think Taiwan is "safe".  Ask any Taiwanese citizen....

 

China has never stated its missiles were developed to threaten the US.  This is your assertion.  The missiles were/are developed to act as a deterrent against US aggression and invasion attempt.

China will not cause the world to sink into all out military action.  Only the USA would sink to this level. The US is steadily losing share of world GDP.  The attitude of Americans is, if we go down we are taking the rest of you with us. 

The US has declared China to be the prime enemy of the USA: China has not declared the USA to be her enemy.  Ponder that.

fyi, the true name for Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC).  PRChina has and continues to claim the ROC territory shall be returned by peaceful means. The trigger for military action will be a ROC declaration of independence. 

You might be surprised to learn the average ROC person would welcome the chance to be rid of the mafias known as political parties, who continue to rape the 'country' of its wealth.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, is Taiwan.  This old chestnut from June 2017 is always an eye opening read:

FIRST STRIKE China’s Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Going by the findings in that report, if world affairs did sink to the level of all out military action by the Chinese, for whatever reason, they would presumably first take out the U.S. defenses in the area with relatively few boots on the ground.  And then the invasion of Taiwan would be a relatively small affair.  AND once taken (not if) it would provide them with a forward buffer against further action from outside militaries.

I would go so far as to say no other power on earth, even an alliance of powers, could hope to defeat the Chinese over Taiwan, again if world affairs warranted the fast occupation (and accompanying slaughter of any who resist).  The Chinese are supremely well equipped and positioned to do just that, right now.

I hope nothing of that scale ever comes to be, but it would be foolish to think Taiwan is "safe".  Ask any Taiwanese citizen....

 

I think they neglected deliberately (unless I missed it) to mention small single warhead tactical nukes that would be ideal for anti missile barrage. Forcing a sequencing of the missiles such that a thicker missile defense system would do the job. 

Second deterrent is a constantly ongoing targeting of all motorized vessels in the S China sea that China may control so that they can't expect to actually reach anywhere to take possession of territory. 

Third is giving Taiwan nukes. 

Taiwan is never safe. Never was.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, frankfurter said:

China has never stated its missiles were developed to threaten the US.  This is your assertion.  The missiles were/are developed to act as a deterrent against US aggression and invasion attempt.

China will not cause the world to sink into all out military action.  Only the USA would sink to this level. The US is steadily losing share of world GDP.  The attitude of Americans is, if we go down we are taking the rest of you with us. 

The US has declared China to be the prime enemy of the USA: China has not declared the USA to be her enemy.  Ponder that.

fyi, the true name for Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC).  PRChina has and continues to claim the ROC territory shall be returned by peaceful means. The trigger for military action will be a ROC declaration of independence. 

You might be surprised to learn the average ROC person would welcome the chance to be rid of the mafias known as political parties, who continue to rape the 'country' of its wealth.  

To quote you, "prove it"..

Chinese speeches and documents that have made it out of China indicate precisely that its leadership is belligerently  paranoid and is constantly aiming to get the US out of the S China sea and if the opportunity arose, they would take the US for their own territory in order to feed their people. Russia is option no.2 if relations were to sour.

The world is developing. The US has its own internal problems and corruption.

Thanks for positing the official China Ministry of Propaganda position.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, frankfurter said:

The curse of oil America again.   Venezuela has every right to sell her oil to whomever she chooses.   It is a basic sovereign and human right.  

It would be if their elected president actually got to take his position.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

“LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place thePLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, isTaiwan.”

 

Yep, you are correct, which begs the question, ‘Why haven’t they?”

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

47 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

“LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place thePLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, isTaiwan.”

 

Yep, you are correct, which begs the question, ‘Why haven’t they?”

I could go into a long drawn out discussion on this, but the simple answer is: Patience.  Peaceful reunification is the preferred way, and if that takes a hundred years or so, that's okay.  Not to mention it very possibly could bring the world to the brink of World War 3.  Nobody wants that.  The scenario in "First Strike" is, I believe a worst case one.  Only to be used if China believed beyond a reasonable doubt that they were about to be attacked on a massive scale (non-nuclear).

[jose chalhoub + 388]

15 hours ago, BLA said:

I hear Maduro does not trust his military and surrounds himself with Cuban soldiers he rents from Castro.

yes this is true and the discontent is real as i stated especially in the low ranks of the armed forces and security departments. Also criminal gangs and bands are common in the capital city Caracas and they even have more firepower than the police and this was enhanced by the government in order to quell any attempt of protest by the people. So yes Maduro must be too distrustful of his inner circle and military forces. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Peaceful unification, which may take 100 years, while keeping Taiwan out of the UN and forcing other nations to choose between dealing with China or dealing with Taiwan is not my definition of peaceful reunification.

Recognizing that Taiwan does not want to be part of China and has never been part of Communist China would be a logical first step. But like the 9 Line Map, logic doesn’t enter in to the debate.

[BLA + 1,666]

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

“LOL!  (Sorry, Douglas)  Say what you will about the Chinese military, the ONE place thePLA/PLAN/PLAAF could absolutely overwhelm in very short order if push came to shove in world affairs, isTaiwan.”

 

Yep, you are correct, which begs the question, ‘Why haven’t they?”

Chinese Navy is more quantity than quality.  Still formidable.

Side story: A friend of mine is a Merchant Marine. He took an assignment on a ship contracted by U.S. military .  They had the job of dropping hundreds of sophisticated sonar buoys in Asia waters.  He said the entire time they were followed by Chinese subs and frigates.  He said they were not shy about showing their presence.  

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

4 hours ago, BLA said:

Chinese Navy is more quantity than quality.  Still formidable.

Side story: A friend of mine is a Merchant Marine. He took an assignment on a ship contracted by U.S. military .  They had the job of dropping hundreds of sophisticated sonar buoys in Asia waters.  He said the entire time they were followed by Chinese subs and frigates.  He said they were not shy about showing their presence.  

 

I think there may be a wee tactical issue with subs not being shy about showing their presence. Not a military expert, but that seems counter-productive for a sub...😂