CCP holding back virus data . . . . . . Spanish Flu 1918 MUTATED, Came in 3 waves, Lasted 14 months and killed upward 5% World population

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

”Major problem I see is the US thirst for hydrocarbons, nearly 5 tons of oil equivalent per capita isunsustainable.”

This is an odd way to look at oil useage. By industry or compared to GDP would be more informative. If your population is largely composed of peasants, this skews this comparison.

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

And Please do not tell me that some third  countries may want it otherwise like request US or Chinese military presence. Just simple power theory with 2 players dominating the globe, No 3rd country can say anything. Anybody that does not agree and have anything meaningful will be invaded by one of hegemons with or without help of the other.

I tend to agree with this, just take Crimea as a recent example. This was just taken by Russia although it was Ukraine territory.because Russia was the super power on the doorstep and wanted it, so they took it.

Regarding "foreign" military bases in other countries this is usually a symbiotic relationship where it is to the benefit of both countries. Most of these smaller countries do not have the military might to have any defence of their lands and therefore are vulnerable to attack, so the leader(s) of said country "invite" a stronger ally to have a military base on their land. In return the "foreign" country gets a strategic military and political base (outpost). These smaller countries become nothing more than political and military pawns on the global political landscape. Does the US or Russia (or even China) care about Syria? I doubt it other than from a strategic position in a very unstable territory.

China, Russia and the US are no different in this regard IMO.

However to suggest that Japan would accept Chinese military bases on the Ryuku islands is crazy. This could only happen if there was a war between China and Japan.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

If these ‘smaller’ countries do not like being “pawns”, they can always dicontinue the lease on the base, which is what the Philippine government did with the Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air Base. They are sovereign countries and are not forced to keep these bases.

Subic Bay and Clark Air Base contributed significantly to the local and national economies. Once those damn, Imperialistic Yanks left, this became brutally apparent.

Firthermore, by having these bases (not specifically American), the host country gets a defense capability at no cost and the monies they would have spent on arms, training, maintenance, etc... can now be spent to address other issues.

Whenever Americans have been asked to leave, they have. Except, apparently, the Golan Heights...🤔

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@Marcin2 and @frankfurter
 

Are you gentlemen suggesting and supporting the idea that the US should remove itself from ALL it’s overseas endeavors? It is apparent that you both disagree with the US foreign policy, so I am assuming that you support the US following an isolationist agenda, is this correct?

If you do not suggest a total exit from the world stage by the Americans, which policies or programs would you like to remain in place?

This is not an attempt to start an argument, I am interested in your views regarding the above.

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

26 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Firthermore, by having these bases (not specifically American), the host country gets a defense capability at no cost and the monies they would have spent on arms, training, maintenance, etc... can now be spent to address other issues.

Yes exactly my point Douglas!

Its a win for both countries

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

South China Sea behaviour of China is a very moderated, probably because China still needs time to develop and feels pressure of current hegemon US. 

Nope.  Unless you have actually lived in the South China Sea region, then I would say you are inventing a false narrative.

I lived in Malaysia (part of the South China Sea region) for almost 2 decades.  China is a huge bully to its neighbors there, but the smaller countries must kowtow meekly to China as their largest trade partner, and no country in the South China Sea region can go head to head against China's military.

China is way out of bounds with its 9 dash line land (sea) grab.  CCP (China Communist Party) is living up to its name, as Communists, seizing economic control over other countries.  CCP's Communist expansionist compulsions may very well be the biggest existential threat there is to Asia. 

China's One Belt One Road is a predatory debt trap, pure and simple.  Designed to extract natural resources from other countries as impossible loans are defaulted on.

9 Dash Line is a predatory economic invasion into the economic sea zones of other countries.  Parasitic feeding off of the sovereign economic zones of other countries.

CCP is a menace.  CCP is a parasite.  You don't like my words?  Well, then you might be part of the problem if you support and glorify the China Communist Party.

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

7 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Bullshit.

Haha get off the fence Tom!

As you have direct experience of this region for decades I bow to your knowledge on this.

I actually agree with all of what you say anyway, especially on the OBOR comment👍

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I have lived in Malaysia for 16 years now...Tom’s comments are accurate.

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

37 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I have lived in Malaysia for 16 years now...Tom’s comments are accurate.

Too hot and humid for me there, well it was in KL anyway.

[Passthekoolaid + 5]

On 2/28/2020 at 9:04 AM, BLA said:

Hoping warm weather brings relief.

BUT NOBODY HONESTLY KNOWS.

XI JINPING MUST END VIRUS DATA SECRECY.

After the Spanish Flu mutated it became extremely virulent.  It subsided and re-emerged in three waves and lasted more than a year.   Killed between 50 million to 100 million.  

Vaccines not discovered yet.

(1) Spanish Flu first recorded in March 1918.  Very contagious. Deaths resulted. 

(2) By July 1918 the flu abated.  All was good.  All clear.

(3) August 1918 the Second Wave of a MUTATED Spanish Flu appeared and was both contagious and exceedingly deadly.

(4) Third wave , also a mutation, started November 1918. Not as deadly as 2nd wave, but more than the first wave.   This continued until Spring 1919. Some reports say still killed until 1920. 

Don't think it can't happen again ? Better to be prepared.

ALL THE MORE REASON CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY (CCP) NEEDS TO PUT ITS PRIDE ASIDE AND WORK WITH ALL THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS

Chinese nationalist pride comes before the life of their own people.

U.S.  CDC repeated requests for data to help develop vaccine has been turned down or ignored. 

The Chinese have not let the WHO (World Health Organization) visit the infected area.

The Chinese have not let U.S. CDC top viral scientist into their country.  There is a 3 person resident  CDC office in Beijing that Chinese will not share important data.  

The only viral sample the U.S. has is from the Seattle patient.  The U.S. does not know if the virus has mutated.  They do not know how long the virus lives outside of the body. How long it survives on wood vs stainless steel vs etc.  

Some U.S. scientist think it can be transmitted airborne. It appears to be quite easily transmittable. 

THE CHINESE COMMUNIST HARDLINER NATIONALIST  ARE INSISTENT THAT CHINA MUST DEVELOP THE VACCINE.   NOT U.S. 

THE CCP PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE YESTERDAY STATING , " THE VIRUS DID NOT ORIGINATE IN CHINA" 

Bull

In the meantime President Trump has spoken to Xi Jinping three times trying to solicit more cooperation while not insulting their sensitivity which could trigger even greater secrecy.

There are groups within Chinese Medical and Scientific community that want to work with outside organizations.  But the CCP RULES.

CCP forcing some factories to go back online.  Imagine what this virus is doing to their economy. Could be premature and cost thousands of additional lives.  CCP hope and a pray for warmer weather end of April that cures what ails them.  The Spanish flu lasted 14 months. SARS lasted 9 months.

We all hope the virus ends soon 

Xi Jinping can end this secrecy .  He should act immediately.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/02/19/coronavirus_more_proof_china_is_unfit_for_global_role.html 

Excellent post and spot on. The Chinese numbers are grossly understated. The two "random samples" pulled from Wuhan, i.e. the 165 German evacuees and the 200 Japanese evacuees, showed infection rates of 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. Apply that to the 10M + population of Wuhan and you get around 200k  Covid19 positive patients as of end of January.

Per studies by the Imperial College of London, the number of infected doubles approximately every 5 days. So the likely numbers at the moment are in the millions.

Given that the Coronavirus Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is estimated to be between 0.005 and 0.02, that translates into a mortality rate of approximately 5 x to 20  x compared to the regular flu. But that is not where it ends. Covid19 is also up to 10 x more transmissible than the flu. While somewhere between 8% to 10% of US normally gets the flu, the Coronavirus could potentially infect as many as 80% of Americans.

So total expected death toll will range between 5 x 5 to 20 x 10 or 25 to 200 x the death toll of a normal flu season. 

https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/harvard-scientist-coronavirus-pandemic-likely-to-infect-40-70-of-the-world-x6i9u9poZkKxs6KoFUFcKw

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

I might get shouted at for saying this but flu season is almost over, the spread of Coronavirus is going to slow right down in the coming weeks as we enter spring if it's similar to the spread of flu which I would imagine it will be.

I know it's 'worse' than flu, it spreads quicker, there's no vacine to protect people who are more vulnerable to pulminary disease, and it does seem to kill at a higher rate but so far there's still only 40-50k uncured cases (if we believe the figures) and less than 15k known cases outside of China half of which are in Korea.

I also read it dies in temps over 26/27 degrees so the likelyhood of a massive epidemic in Africa seems unlikely...again if we are to believe that is true.

I personally think the panic will be over in 3-4 weeks.

Edited March 4, 2020 by El Nikko

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Too hot and humid for me there, well it was in KL anyway.

YOU PUSSY!😂

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

YOU PUSSY!😂

Ever shovel snow in a kilt?  My brother does (part Scottish, among other things).

https://burst.com/2wk84e9b

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

No...did it in a pink tutu once. The neighbors were unimpressed.

Cool house in the background!

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

12 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

YOU PUSSY!😂

I f**kin hate humidity!

Yeah I guess I'm a pussy, got me there Doug🤣

[Rob Plant + 2,632]

3 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Ever shovel snow in a kilt?  My brother does (part Scottish, among other things).

https://burst.com/2wk84e9b

Never got the whole skirt wearing thing for blokes!

Maybe he suffers with sweaty bo**ocks and enjoys the cold air round em

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I f**kin hate humidity!

Yeah I guess I'm a pussy, got me there Doug🤣

Saudi and Bahrain were horrible in summer, close to 60 degrees C and pretty much 100% humidity

No matter what we tried it was impossible to go to a meeting and not look like you'd been dragged through a hedge backwards

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

Never got the whole skirt wearing thing for blokes!

Maybe he suffers with sweaty bo**ocks and enjoys the cold air round em

I've never worn a kilt, and don't much think I would like it during snow time.  Then again, my brother is built like a bull.  He's a farmer who has been lifting weights for 20 years and weighs around 300 pounds.  His upper arms are about the size of my upper legs.  So I'm guessing he doesn't feel as cold as I do in the snowy weather.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/04/worst-china-traffic-travel-pollution-pick/

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 3/2/2020 at 7:20 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Iran to the rescue !!!!

Hoo boy, this should end well.   < eye roll >

Iran’s minister of health: tomorrow 300,000 people with equipped gear will come to every house and we will eradicate corona. #COVID-19

Iran’s minister of health: tomorrow 300,000 people with
equipped gear will come to every house and we will
eradicate corona.

 

وزیر بهداشت: با ۳۰۰ هزار اکیپ مجهز در سراسر کشور از پس فردا به تک تک خانه‌ها مراجعه و بیماری #کرونا را ریشه کن می‌کنیم

— خبرگزاری ایسنا (@isna_farsi) March 1, 2020

 

 

Welp, that went well  < eye roll >

Iran Temporarily Frees 54,000 Prisoners As Covid-19 Devastates Overcrowded Jails

In under two weeks Iran's leaders have gone from denial, to a seeming attempt at cover-up, to in some cases getting sick themselves to now talking a major military and volunteer mobilized response. This as the official death toll as of Wednesday has risen to 92, including 2,922 confirmed cases as overnight 586 new cases were reported.

And in the latest sign that desperation and panic have kicked in as coronovirus victims' bodies pile up at local morgues, Tehran is actually freeing prisoners on a mass scale in what appears a sign that Covid-19 is rapidly spreading among the country's crowded prison population.

"Iran has temporarily released more than 54,000 prisoners in an effort to combat the spread of the new coronavirus disease in crowded jails," the BBC reports.  ...

[Wombat + 1,028]

10 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I don't expect China to be a pole in a bipolar world. It is acting like a French empire. It is not acting like a future Hegemon. It is also not capable of being one. The economics of it don't play out. 

It will never happen.

China under the CCP can not develop into a high margin economy that can fund Hegemony. All it can do under that regime is squash other country's economic margins down, not something they will allow any longer. The CCP is the enemy of China's economic future and its potential place as a pole in a bipolar or multipolar world. Its contradictions of internal isolation and great economic "openness" are also not sustainable. Neither is the contradiction of a friendly supplier of arms and population surveillance and control and builder of infrastructure, vs. its ruthless exploitation of resources, financial debt traps and repossession  of national trophies that they built for their "friends". They need to choose between control and cooperation. So far, cooperation seems to fade quickly in each binary relationship and turns sour as soon as China senses it can exercise control. There are only so many times you can do that. 

I think the threats China exercises against EU and the UK will ring hollow after the coronavirus debacle and their insane methods to contain it. In 5 years, China will be bypassed by the global supply chains and its lack of consumer market growth will remove its last attraction. It will only have its cheap rare earth minerals as a competitive advantage. Its labor is no longer cheap, and its finances are weak. As their boomer generation retires, the savings cash flow  will dwindle and their financial system will have to live off of the profits from its investments. Those profits have been out for most of the last decade of profitless growth. There is no reason to believe they will magically appear without major restructuring of China's SOEs, meaning 20% unemployment. So a financial restructuring is not going to be enough, the actual operations will have to be made efficient.  

Their current attempt to curtail credit expansion via EMU style "bail ins" will create the same problem that the EU banking system has. Nobody can keep large deposits and crucial cash for corporate liquidity in the banking system. The original bail in program for Baoshang bank was a 30% haircut for corporate and financial depositors. They cut it to a 10% penalty when many companies reported they would not survive the loss. The experience has everyone in business scrambling for a solution. In Europe it was to hold sovereign bonds that the ECB would buy or repo, and reliance on the Eurodollar system. There may be a run for China sovereign credit, but that is not enough, using the Eurodollar system for liquidity for large China depositors might work, but is difficult to implement unless the company is a China multinational,because SAFE imposes capital controls, and will not let companies take their liquidity into the Eurodollar system (i.e. out of China). Perhaps they will use gold among other things, perhaps oil reserves. But there are not going to be any more large private depositors in the China banking system. The regulators there have made the banks "radioactive".None of that is conducive to China's continued development. 

At this point, China can't feed itself, can't power itself, and has proved itself unreliable. The climb up the value chain CCP style just eliminates the value in the chain. So will not produce a substantial growth in incomes for China. Not the makings of a superpower.

 

That sounds like wishful thinking to me! Let me assure you, the Pentagon and any serious foreign policy analyst does not share your optimism. I have heard many reasons as to why China will fail over the years, all of which have turned out to be wrong. They are well on their way to global domination and the US is set to become a very distant 2nd. Indeed, India may displace the US as 2nd within 25 years.

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If these ‘smaller’ countries do not like being “pawns”, they can always dicontinue the lease on the base, which is what the Philippine government did with the Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air Base. They are sovereign countries and are not forced to keep these bases.

Subic Bay and Clark Air Base contributed significantly to the local and national economies. Once those damn, Imperialistic Yanks left, this became brutally apparent.

Firthermore, by having these bases (not specifically American), the host country gets a defense capability at no cost and the monies they would have spent on arms, training, maintenance, etc... can now be spent to address other issues.

Whenever Americans have been asked to leave, they have. Except, apparently, the Golan Heights...🤔

Well, things are different. In the Trump math, when Duterte, the Philippine president, went to get the US bases back, Trump asked for him to cover part of the cost ($50 Bil). Duterte was miffed and showed up in Beijing the next week to try and get some kind of offer to counter the US and get more favorable terms. 

The Trumpian, and general US math is that the old order costs too much from the US side, particularly in mercantile terms, what Trump calls unfair trade practices and one sided tariffs. Thus each bilateral relationship has trade military and international relations components and the key is a mercantile benefit to the US and/or a cover of US military costs. A "no China trade agreement" clause is part of any relationship. This the successor model to the WTO.

The Golan Heights presence is a post 1973 war cease fire agreement under the UN's auspices as peacekeepers agreed by both sides. In return for this, Syria got its Western half back so that the border with Israel didn't run through Damascus' suburbs. 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

The Golan Heights presence is a post 1973 war cease fire agreement under the UN's auspices as peacekeepers agreed by both sides. In return for this, Syria got its Western half back so that the border with Israel didn't run through Damascus' suburbs. 

Only a moron, or a particular brand of sausage would claim the USA is sitting with an army in the Golan Heights. You'd think a person making such an abject mistake would slink away in humiliation. I certainly hope he gets paid extra to reng dao lian. 

When the US was ordered out of the Philippines, we left. The citizens immediately looted the bases, leaving a wreck behind. The impact to their economy was devastating with all those dollars no longer being spent on rent and bar girls.  

Given how we were treated, Trump did exactly the right thing. The Philippines would be even bigger morons to invite China to build military bases there, the invasion would be half over before it started. They're already having trouble with China over fishing and offshore oil. China's case for "owning" that water is even more laughable than @frankfurter's ridiculous rambling posts here. He's a good little wumaodang, I'll give him that. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Ward Smith

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,135]

On 3/3/2020 at 2:11 AM, frankfurter said:

What they want is freedom from the West's interference, threats and self-righteousness.

🤣🤣🤣 Easy: Stop selling to the West.  Or buying.  🤣🤣🤣

[Bob D + 562]

FinTwit:

Notes from a Morgan Stanley hosted event with John Hopkins Chief Epidemiologist.

JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring...


My comment

World Population 8.0 Billion
Low case
40% infected 3.2 Billion
0.1% death rate 3.2 Million

High Case
60% infected 4.8 Billion
0.5% death rate 24.0 Million