Why Trump Is Right to Re-Open the Economy

[surrept33 + 609]

I really dig the use of things like Kinsa's thermometers, and I think that definitely seems like the way of the future,  but I worry about overgeneralizing results from it yet. I figure a internet-enabled smart thermometer oversamples certain demographics than others and creates a sampling bias. But I might be wrong and maybe they have higher penetration that I figured.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, timamtti said:

I'm a person writing in an internet discussion group just like @0R0. Nobody here is "answerable" to anyone. On the other hand, people are allowed to challenge claims made by other writers as long as it stays in topic.

Your post was a pure personal attack against me that contributed nothing to the discussion about coronavirus that I was discussing with @0R0. 

I was encouraging @0R0 to publish his analysis as it would be quite ground-breaking as it would show a completely different picture of the coronavirus than what is told by CDC for instance. He didn't want to do that. His analysis is based on the temperature data from Kinsa and the Kinsa CEO has published his own analysis of the situation based on the exact same data. It would be very useful if these two talked to each other and compared notes rather than this being buried here in anonymous posts in an obscure discussion board. 

Maybe you don't understand that the value of this analysis, if correct, is far far greater than any discussion here. That's why I'm encouraging him to publish it wider. 

If I can "chase off" @0R0 to show his analysis to CDC or at least Kinsa and if his analysis turns out to be correct and Kinsa CEO's wrong, then I've achieved much more than you will ever do in your life. 

I had a reply all typed up 2 hours ago but the buggy interface ate it. Bottom line Kinsa sells thermometers, everything they're doing is to drive those sales. While their data is clearly flawed, it is vastly superior to anything the bunglecrats at the CDC have released to date. No need for @0R0 to publish, and you're being a jerk about how you're "asking". You're still nobody, you've posted a meager handful of messages here, you've done nothing to earn my respect, quite the opposite in fact. @0R0 has done plenty so put that in your wumao pipe and smoke it. 

[timamtti + 17]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Bottom line Kinsa sells thermometers, everything they're doing is to drive those sales. While their data is clearly flawed, it is vastly superior to anything the bunglecrats at the CDC have released to date.

I'm not talking about the data. I assume @0R0 and the CEO of Kinsa have the same data. The point is that their analyses come to complete opposite conclusions. @0R0 claims that his analysis shows that pretty much entire New York has already had the virus. CEO of Kinsa says that the analysis shows that social distancing is working and limiting the spread of virus. These two statements are in contradiction and only either one of them can be true. It would be very useful if @0R0 were in contact with Kinsa people instead of debating on an obscure discussion board. 

 

7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

No need for @0R0 to publish

I don't know what you refer here as "need". In my opinion it has huge economic value if he publishes (or at least talks to CDC, Kinsa or New York) about it. If his analysis is correct and they (Kinsa CEO, CDC and New York) are wrong, the approach that New York should take is completely different than what they are taking at the moment. There would be basically no need to continue social distancing except for maybe some people belonging to the vulnerable groups. 

I don't understand why you're so obtuse at understanding the implications of 80% of New Yorkians having already had the virus instead of a couple of percent (or less than 1% that is the current confirmed positive to total population ratio). 

Of course all this assumes that people actually care about what happens in real world. If the whole point is just typing conspiracy theory messages to like-minded anonymous people in obscure internet discussion groups and getting them tapping the like-button and it doesn't matter what happens in real world as long CDC and other deep state organisations are shown to have been wrong, then fine, there's no need to do anything else. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, timamtti said:

So, Trump couldn't actually fire the CDC pandemic response team? So, why is it not there as it was there during Obama?

 

Where did you get this? When there is a transition of power in European countries, the heads of different agencies don't usually get fired like in the US. In the US, Trump has put his cronies in place of leading several agencies. 

I haven't checked the details, but if I recall correctly, the CDC simply got its funding for the pandemic response team cut as the President didn't apply to congress to fund it. Congress has the sole power to decide whether to put in the funds. If it was indeed him firing it, which was done before, as the team was not engaged in useful activity but instead wrote reams of regulations for theoretical pandemics - which included nothing for something with asymptomatic carriers.. Nobody could apply their work. It didn't disappear, it is still on file at the CDC and hospitals. If they wanted or could use their plans then they could have. So far as I understand, nobody has done so. 

Trump has been unable to appoint heads of agencies or departments because the Senate must confirm them and the Dems generally don't allow that to happen. The rejection rate is 75%. Most positions are either holdovers or acting substitutes. Of the nearly 4000 appointed positions the president can appoint, only a fraction were successfully filled.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

26 minutes ago, timamtti said:

don't understand why you're so obtuse at understanding the implications of 80% of New Yorkians having already had the virus

Talk about obtuse. There's a difference between 80% of New Yorkers being exposed to the virus and having already had the virus. Learn a little about R0 and get back to me. 

Recognize the CEO of Kinsa benefits from the pandemic. So do a lot of actors in this drama frankly, including democrats who feel it is their God given right to every aspect of citizen's lives. Dr. Fauci would be a losing answer on Jeopardy if not for this pandemic.  

[timamtti + 17]

31 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Trump has been unable to appoint heads of agencies or departments because the Senate must confirm them and the Dems generally don't allow that to happen.

And how does that "not allowing to happen" work when Dems don't have the majority in the senate? 

[timamtti + 17]

5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Talk about obtuse. There's a difference between 80% of New Yorkers being exposed to the virus and having already had the virus. Learn a little about R0 and get back to me. 

This is what he wrote.

On 4/9/2020 at 1:48 PM, 0R0 said:

I would expect 40-80%.

You can check from the text that he was talking about temperature data, which of course would know nothing about "being exposed". 

Earlier he wrote:

 

On 4/7/2020 at 3:33 PM, 0R0 said:

The CDC said - your interview is from a week ago. That US penetration is estimated at 5%. That is probably true but a low ball value, but it reflects rural and exurban America at 1-2% suburbia 2-5%, metro areas 20% to 50%, and dense metro commuters at 70-80% the way I see it.

For the argument, it makes little difference if the number is 50 or 80%. The point is that it's in the herd immunity level unlike the other estimates that would put it at a few percent at most. 

And if it's that high especially for the "metro commuters" then they can all go back to work as they are no longer danger to get it themselves (and not spreading it in metro as pretty much everyone there also has it). 

13 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Recognize the CEO of Kinsa benefits from the pandemic.

Well, he would benefit even more if the data from his devices told the decision makers something that's completely in odd with what they are thinking is the situation and if he were right. At best he would sell a massive number of devices in the future as they would be the only way to tell the real situation, not the other ways that are being used. I don't know how much a device would cost, but it could be that it would be cheaper for the US government to buy one to every citizen and give it out for free if that shortened the pandemic by a couple of weeks. 

Could you explain how is he benefitting from touting a false conclusion from the data of his devices? In the future we will know if he or @0R0was right. If he knows that the situation is indeed what @0R0 says and not what he is saying, then he will be shooting himself in the foot as CDC or whoever are not going to be relying on him in the future. 

[Pierre Castro, P. Eng. + 1]

I wish we can get back to work, but sorry to say it might be a while. Past cured folks of Covid-19 are now reactive again. Looks like the only way to stop this is through Vaccine.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-112256381.html

[Radha + 262]

Looks like Sweden is handling this situation a lot better than most other countries

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, timamtti said:

Could you explain how is he benefitting from touting a false conclusion from the data of his devices? In the future we will know if he or @0R0was right. If he knows that the situation is indeed what @0R0 says and not what he is saying, then he will be shooting himself in the foot as CDC or whoever are not going to be relying on him in the future. 

The CDC "or whoever" are not relying on him NOW. They likely don't know that he exists, or if they do, they wish he'd go away, he's raining on their parade. You're conflating outcome with methodology. How many units, total, do you believe they've sold? The downloads are even more suspect, because smartphones aren't at all setup to take human temperatures accurately. Think they've sold 10,000 units or 10% of that? Were the units perfectly distributed or are they clustered in the hotspots? My guess, clustered. 

My reading of the same words you seem to have trouble with, indicate exposure. English likely isn't your native language, given how you write. "Completely in odd" doesn't bode well for your bona fides. Not bad for a wumao though. 

China's CCP fired the first shot in this war, they sent people out like suicide bombers and they expect to win the war of attrition that will follow. Or the CCP will be lined up and shot for crimes against humanity. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 4/7/2020 at 9:46 AM, D Coyne said:

Tom,

The post I was referring to was the one with the Chinese person hoarding ppe. Such a post incites racists to attack Asians.  No explanation needed, imagine your wife was in the US, perhaps you would not post that crap in that case.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-china-virus-coronavirus-asian-americans-attack-activism-a9422721.html

Guess what chum, my wife is in the US and she's Chinese and she not I sent that same video out to everyone she could. I'm fluent enough in mandarin to understand what the woman was saying, and it didn't escape my notice that she's married to a white man. Her behavior was doubly reprehensible, first for hoovering up all the PPE she could find but secondly for bragging about it while filming herself! Your ire should be directed at her not Tom. 

As for supposed attacks? I don't believe any democrat, ever when talking about racial attacks. Every so called racist attack they've been involved with have turned out to be hoaxes! But I'm not seeing you or anyone complaining about that! Selective outrage indeed. 

[timamtti + 17]

47 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

The CDC "or whoever" are not relying on him NOW. They likely don't know that he exists, or if they do, they wish he'd go away, he's raining on their parade.

He's not. I already linked before his article on medium. He is completely in agreement with what CDC is saying. It's @0R0 who is disagreeing with Inder Singh and CDC. 

50 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

How many units, total, do you believe they've sold?

I have no idea. I'm sure that would increase manyfold if he could tell reliably from the analysis of his data that New York can go back to work. That was my point. Singh (and @0R0 if he wanted to go public) would become an instant hero if the thermometer data showed that New York has achieved herd immunity and don't have to worry about the virus anymore. This of course assuming that the analysis by @0R0 is correct. 

51 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Think they've sold 10,000 units or 10% of that? Were the units perfectly distributed or are they clustered in the hotspots? My guess, clustered. 

So, are you now saying that the analysis that @0R0 presented is most likely based on unreliable or even false dats? If so, why were you defending him earlier? If, on the other hand, the data is good, then what is your point? 

54 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

"Completely in odd" doesn't bode well for your bona fides.

Well, I'm sorry that that expression misses one letter "s". I don't proofread my posts and the automatic spell-checker that underlines wrongly spelled words with a red line doesn't notice if word is in single when it should be plural. I've never seen that kind of grammar nazism anywhere. If I go through your 1524 posts that the counter says that you have posted here and find one where you have missed an s from the end of the word, does that make you an non-English speaker? 

[surrept33 + 609]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Social distancing works to restrict virus propagation to a small trickle with overall active infections falling. Symptomatic tests will not show the change till about 2 weeks later. 

In low density urban environments you need PPE on public transport and restrict school gatherings and mass congregations to control the spread, but it is far slower than it is in high density areas. But unrestricted conduct did result in expanding numbers in e.g. West Michigan. They never reached clogged hospitals as they did in Detroit, but distribution of positive tests is relatively high. 

I am convinced as you are, that we should just go on with business as usual with an effort to restrict transmission via PPE (masks and gloves) and serious efforts at sanitation at work and retail. And avoiding crowded conditions, which is hard in the dense center city.

I suspect eventually what we'll find out when this all blows over is that specific "super-spreading" events (who knows what, but likely mass gatherings in close proximity) caused mass infections in specific situations in specific communities (this is like throwing accelerant in a fire), then there was a gradual diffusion from those events when the city was not on lockdown.  If you look at the distribution of cases in NYC for example, by far the worst hit areas (in dark blue below) are parts of Queens in the Elmhurst/Jackson Heights area that have fairly tightnit ethnic communities.

During the SARS outbreak there were some cases like this which were identified.

 

 

In Westchester and Dutchess counties, which have the highest per capita cases in NY, there were specific communities where the virus seemed to spread like wildfire.

 

Per capita cases / 100k people per county in NY:

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

You're lying. His exact words concerned the DNC claiming that he had done nothing about the virus being another one of their hoaxes like the Russian hoax and the phone call hoax. Your TDS is showing, and not in a good light. 

That's correct, Ward:

Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

23 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

It is a cult, Trump flips, they flip too, so Fortunately their minds are not polluted by congnitive dissonance.

Now, there is belief that all the misery in US is caused by Chinese communists domestic cover up of virus seriousness in early January 2020.

I am Polish not American, and at this forum since September 2019 so till CoVID19 it was at times fascinating to observe otherwise fantastic and smart people under influence of something that looked like bad spell.

After CoVID19 and all the casualties in US and real hate I observe towards culprits - Chinese it No longer is interesting, but just frightening.

Look at older threads, observe their radicalization, for a European , this reminds me well known other country in early 1930s.

It's basically precisely that, a cult. Psychology has documented how cultists switch off rational thinking when talking about the matters of the cult and their leader, so it's a waste of time to confront them with facts. Trump lies literally every day, and they do not mind one bit. Every new wild shot he fires, they mindlessly parrot it after him, like zombies. Trump has little to lose - Hydrochloroquine, a miraculous cure? Why not, if it is by some wild chance effective, Trump will present it as a success, painting himself a savior of the people. If it's not effective, he will say he wanted give people hope. If it kills some people, he will say they would die anyway. As a bonus, he shares a nice bag of money with his friends from Bayer. There is no scientific basis, recommending it is irresponsible? Trump does not care. They know whatever he says, it will be like a god given commandment to his cult, since they never doubt him (that's an important characteristic of a cult - lack of doubt). 

Robert de Niro said about him correctly that he is a "fraud that does not do his homeworks." He is ignorant about most topics he talks about - one day, the virus is "just a flu", another day, it's "under control", the next day "it will just go away", but he does not care one bit. That way, he saves a lot of energy, because normally, people are usually compiling data, looking for arguments, using logic to prove or refute them, but he does nothing like that - he just throws around random statements, probably depending on his mood. He does not care about facts, his cultists do not care about facts, and he nor his cultists care about other people - so they let them speak, and they again say what they said before. Unfortunately, it's also the end of the age of reason, democracy and civilized society, because it's the end of rational discussion and looking for consensus in public matters. 

Basically, it's nothing new - cults operated like that for ages, it's the same mechanism:

 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

That's correct, Ward:

Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?

Yeah, now you are obsessing about the word "hoax", but the fact remains that Trump seriously downplayed the seriousness of the threat, calling it "just a flu, something under control which will go away". All those statements are lies - it's not just a flu, becuse it is both deadlier and more contagious, leaves lasting damage on organs. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/

The fact remains that as a leader responsible for managing the crisis, he failed miserably. 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Yeah, now you are obsessing about the word "hoax", but the fact remains that Trump seriously downplayed the seriousness of the threat, calling it "just a flu, something under control which will go away". All those statements are lies - it's not just a flu, becuse it is both deadlier and more contagious, leaves lasting damage on organs. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/

The fact remains that as a leader responsible for managing the crisis, he failed miserably. 

 

I thought this was my first comment on this topic, but I guess that is obsessing.  Okay!

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, timamtti said:

I don't know what you refer here as "need". In my opinion it has huge economic value if he publishes (or at least talks to CDC, Kinsa or New York) about it. If his analysis is correct and they (Kinsa CEO, CDC and New York) are wrong, the approach that New York should take is completely different than what they are taking at the moment. There would be basically no need to continue social distancing except for maybe some people belonging to the vulnerable groups. 

 

Yes, that is the idea. The hurdle is that my estimates are rough and need actual field data from tests to be worked out. From the % positives numbers, the trend was a steady number around 40% for NY State, starting at 22% 3.17 rising to 50% at 3.30 and falling back since then to now 40% 4.9. NJ, most  of which (population) is in NYC Metro, is showing 45% up from about the same starting point. Similar to Queens borough. Both being commuters into Manhattan. Queens proper was showing a 57% positives rate last week 56.4% last reading. As the long end of people retaining virus is 3-4 weeks, we should start seeing a drop in % positives among symptomatics similar to the elevated temperature chart. . 

 An interesting point is the Copenhagen, Denmark bloodbank antibody test on CV19 which gave a 2.7% prevalence among 1000 samples. The results corresponds to greater Copenhagen, where the population density is about 5000/sq mile (about the same as Detroit) vs. the city proper which is 18000 (like Milan). Presumably the center provides a higher rate than the outlying parts of the metro areas. A test in an outlying town of low density gave no positives among 246 odd samples. 

If the R0 distribution Bill Ackman quotes is dominated by population density and the median is at 5.7 with the median hot spot city being at about 5000 people/sqm, then trying to get the relationship sized in the same way the collisions rate the scales to pressure for a gas to the power of 2/3 to turn a 3d to a 2d collision plane then for NYC at 70k/sqm vs median 5k would give an R0 for NYC of the order of 18. Though the densest area being Manhattan has a lower rate than commuter cities with 20k densities (which is why I suspect commuting is the source of most of the transmissions or a large minority). Using that relationship to try to gauge the order of magnitude of infection prevalence we would get 2.7% at R0 5.7 going to essentially everyone at R0 of 18 within 2 weeks. If the baseline is the assumption that all the cases came from the center of the city, corresponding to R0 of 7.5, the number infected in NYC would be 2100 fold, or still just about anyone not sequestered. Looking at the median R0 as perhaps overestimated due to NYC dominance in numbers then say the more appropriate R0 median would be say 4, so we have a number to work with, then that corresponding to a population density of 5000/sqm would get you to 400 fold number of infections and still just about everyone.  

With a weaker relationship assumed for population, (again, we still don't have the data itself) we might come up with something less than everybody for NYC. 

Looking at 2.7% prevalence on a 2 million population (assuming nearly all the cases were in greater Copenhagen) That would imply 54k infections, of which 4830 symptomatics tested positive, thus per one positive there are 11 infections. Applying that to NY state statistics at 170k positive would give 2 million infected, mostly in NYC metro. We are surely expecting NYC to have a substantially higher prevalence than Copenhagen. The question is then what is the ratio of symptomatics tested to total infected, would we expect more  or less?. 

Median age in Copenhagen is 41.8, in NYC it is 34.2 so we would expect a significantly larger portion of the infected to show symptoms in Copenhagen than in NYC. Thus the prevalence vs. positive tests (essentially of symptomatic cases)  would be higher in NYC. So infections vs. positive tests should be substantially higher because few under age 40 show any symptoms that would get them tested, and the most likely to get infected are of the asymptomatic age groups. The asymptomatic age group in NYC is ~60-65% of the population, but just under 50% of Copenhagen's population. So the infected to tested positive ratio should be higher by at least that proportion, or 13-14 fold vs 11 fold in Denmark. So would suggest 2.2-2.3 million infected in NY State. But that presumes all symptomatics are tested in NYC as they are in Copenhagen. That requires a look. 

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247505420488507396

 

Temp and humidity survival of CV 19 on surfaces

https://aem.asm.org/content/76/9/2712

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, timamtti said:

I have no idea. I'm sure that would increase manyfold if he could tell reliably from the analysis of his data that New York can go back to work. That was my point. Singh (and @0R0 if he wanted to go public) would become an instant hero if the thermometer data showed that New York has achieved herd immunity and don't have to worry about the virus anymore. This of course assuming that the analysis by @0R0 is correct. 

 

Range of possible outcomes I can calculate is not sufficiently narrow to make a decisive statement. But it keeps looking more likely that the infection rate is far higher than anyone had imagined. The most conservative value I could come up with was just under 30% when the quarantine in NY started. Possibly in the high 40s % by now. But the calculation method becomes increasingly irrelevant as you progress from the start of quarantine. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, surrept33 said:

I suspect eventually what we'll find out when this all blows over is that specific "super-spreading" events (who knows what, but likely mass gatherings in close proximity) caused mass infections in specific situations in specific communities (this is like throwing accelerant in a fire), then there was a gradual diffusion from those events when the city was not on lockdown.  If you look at the distribution of cases in NYC for example, by far the worst hit areas (in dark blue below) are parts of Queens in the Elmhurst/Jackson Heights area that have fairly tightnit ethnic communities.

During the SARS outbreak there were some cases like this which were identified.

 

 

In Westchester and Dutchess counties, which have the highest per capita cases in NY, there were specific communities where the virus seemed to spread like wildfire.

 

Per capita cases / 100k people per county in NY:

Very much in line with such disasters as the big party at Westchester that traced 38 infections to one guy. Particular churches too. But the big deal to me is public transportation. Particularly during the rush hours when you are exposed to 4-6 people's exhalations (or worse) at a time. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, timamtti said:

And how does that "not allowing to happen" work when Dems don't have the majority in the senate? 

Filibuster. You need 60% to stop one. Dems have over 40% of the Senate. Thus can block anything so long as they are a united block. Fortunately that is not always the case. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

29 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

7 hours ago, timamtti said:

I have no idea. I'm sure that would increase manyfold if he could tell reliably from the analysis of his data that New York can go back to work. That was my point. Singh (and @0R0 if he wanted to go public) would become an instant hero if the thermometer data showed that New York has achieved herd immunity and don't have to worry about the virus anymore. This of course assuming that the analysis by @0R0 is correct. 

  7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Range of possible outcomes I can calculate is not sufficiently narrow to make a decisive statement. But it keeps looking more likely that the infection rate is far higher than anyone had imagined. The most conservative value I could come up with was just under 30% when the quarantine in NY started. Possibly in the high 40s % by now. But the calculation method becomes increasingly irrelevant as you progress from the start of quarantine. 

There is the basic issue of relating the temperature data to infection prevalence. The flu baseline provides you with a guide in that in 2018 it just about overwhelmed NYC hospitals. Prevalence was estimated at a bit under 20%. Compared to the baseline, the CV19 temperature anomaly ratios show double the the baseline, which is mostly composed of the 2018 flu season. So was the first indication that CV19 virus prevalence would be that much higher - in the 40% range. 

The big mystery to me is where is the huge FL breakout that appears so starkly in the temp. charts. Can the population density of Miami being 2k vs 70k for Manhattan actually mean that they get a "get out of covid 19 jail free" card? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

It's basically precisely that, a cult. Psychology has documented how cultists switch off rational thinking when talking about the matters of the cult and their leader, so it's a waste of time to confront them with facts. Trump lies literally every day, and they do not mind one bit. Every new wild shot he fires, they mindlessly parrot it after him, like zombies. Trump has little to lose - Hydrochloroquine, a miraculous cure? Why not, if it is by some wild chance effective, Trump will present it as a success, painting himself a savior of the people. If it's not effective, he will say he wanted give people hope. If it kills some people, he will say they would die anyway. As a bonus, he shares a nice bag of money with his friends from Bayer. There is no scientific basis, recommending it is irresponsible? Trump does not care. They know whatever he says, it will be like a god given commandment to his cult, since they never doubt him (that's an important characteristic of a cult - lack of doubt). 

Robert de Niro said about him correctly that he is a "fraud that does not do his homeworks." He is ignorant about most topics he talks about - one day, the virus is "just a flu", another day, it's "under control", the next day "it will just go away", but he does not care one bit. That way, he saves a lot of energy, because normally, people are usually compiling data, looking for arguments, using logic to prove or refute them, but he does nothing like that - he just throws around random statements, probably depending on his mood. He does not care about facts, his cultists do not care about facts, and he nor his cultists care about other people - so they let them speak, and they again say what they said before. Unfortunately, it's also the end of the age of reason, democracy and civilized society, because it's the end of rational discussion and looking for consensus in public matters. 

Basically, it's nothing new - cults operated like that for ages, it's the same mechanism:

 

You are still getting it all wrong. You are reading highly biased sources. 

Agree that Trump is remarkably uncurious and relies entirely on experts to inform him (much preferably on one page) .

You seem to miss entirely that the Trumpists lump together the Dems, media, the medical system, regulatory agencies, social sciences in academia, the international organizations, and the CCP as various colors and intensities of the same thing. It is what they call "the swamp". 

Bayer BTW made no money, their HCQ was donated to the national stockpile and then the German govt. banned exports of HCQ. Since unlike Democrats, they didn't think it lost its effectiveness the moment Trump mentioned it. 

By calling all on the other side of the debate irrational and cultist you are solidly placing yourself in "the swamp". Particularly when you align with CCP propaganda talking points, which Marcin falls for quite often as well. 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I thought this was my first comment on this topic, but I guess that is obsessing.  Okay!

Dan, you will need to take into account that TDS skews rational thinking.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Filibuster. You need 60% to stop one. Dems have over 40% of the Senate. Thus can block anything so long as they are a united block. Fortunately that is not always the case. 

That is incorrect. In 2013 the rule was changed and only a simple majority is required for cloture on all nominations except SCOTUS. Very few Trump nominees have been rejected or withdrawn, it requires Republican help. 

Most of the nominating and confirmation effort has been directed at the judiciary, from whitehouse.gov:

HISTORIC RESTORATION OF THE JUDICIARY: President Trump is transforming our judiciary – appointing a historic number of Federal judges who will interpret the Constitution as written.

Working with the Senate, President Trump has now had 158 judicial nominees confirmed to the Federal bench – a historic transformation of the judiciary.

President Trump has nominated and had confirmed, two Supreme Court justices, 44 Circuit Court judges, and 112 District Court judges.

President Trump has appointed more circuit judges by this point in his presidency than any president in recent history.

Approximately 1 out of every 4 active judges on United States Courts of Appeals has been appointed by President Trump.

This historic transformation is only accelerating, with President Trump on pace to have more judges confirmed this year than in 2017 and 2018 combined.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-appointing-historic-number-federal-judges-uphold-constitution-written/

Edited April 11, 2020 by Jay McKinsey