Rethinking election outcomes for oil.

[0R0 + 6,251]

A very surprising Rasmussen poll showing strong flip of black voters in response to Trump's campaign effort and debate performance.

https://onenewsnow.com/politics-govt/2020/10/24/rasmussen-poll-blacks-give-trump-46-approval-rating

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1319605958037950470

Cahaly is pointing out a persistent trend in rising Black support for trump from 8% in 2016 to likely 15% at last look. But the recent Rasmussen poll and an acknowledgement by 538 may indicate something more.

Early results in FL GA MI NC and a surge in parallel searches of "how to change my vote" Hunter Biden laptop, Biden China, Bobulinsky are indicating Trump may have more lurking voters than the measurements of poling bias are showing.

In FL rallies, surveys show Trump supporters are now turning out in greater numbers than in 2016. About 29% of rally goers did not vote in 2016, indicating a large surge of voters nobody is counting. That would be a possible 40% bigger voter turnout for Trump, if that is mathematically possible at all.

https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1319802509662294017?s=20

 

Pensacola Rally:

 

18,536 signups

 

25.2% NOT Republican

 

31.5% did not vote in 2016

Villages Rally:

 

14,225 signups

 

19.1% NOT Republican

 

27.8% did not vote in 2016

The more recent MSM polls are showing Biden's lead narrowing to within the polling error of 2016, not to speak of the much larger one today, of 10-12% according to Cahaly and a few other polsters, and by Cato's poll bias survey which indicates a 2:1 ratio, too big to be able to correct for.

By these more recent results, applying the older 6% bias estimate gets Trump well over 300 EC votes and the popular vote by a smidge.

. Early in person voting is showing a strong Republican catch up to Dem mail in ballot advantage in FL. The 387K mail in lead by registration, is being closed rapidly by a strongly skewed Re vote in person. The young black and Latino vote that carried FL for Obama, is showing up even less for Biden than it did for Clinton. The 53:26% Dem lead in mail in distribution of ballots by registration, is being close with Rep in person votes  and was 43:36 already, before the rural Trump heavy voting began.today.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135

As indications are that Biden is rapidly losing his lead in the polls and Rep. are showing a higher likelihood of both obtaining a higher turnout than before and a higher proportion of minority votes than normal, it is time to start thinking of what the Energy policy world and China relationship would look like with Trump in a second term and a Rep Senate with the House a possible tossup.

All ideas welcome.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

It is not surprising that mainly Dems voted early (and often  ).  From my perspective it was to be expected, all things considered.  Whatever they hoped to accomplish by a heavy mail in push or trying to make us believe early polling there matters, it doesn't.  That is because it is mainly die hard Dems that are doing it.  Big question:  Did most of the Dems already vote that way?  If they did then Repubs should have no problem when they all head to the polling stations.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

For the life of me, I can't see how this cannot become a landslide victory for Trump.  Even the Dem base is not enthused, no matter what the MSM would have you believe.  The Repub base however is quite enthused and take their politics seriously now that so much of the deep state initiatives have been exposed to have been true.  I suspect a lot of Dems are just not going to vote; they can't stand Trump but there's no denying that a Biden ticket may well end in disaster.  Better to not vote, and keep your conscience clear, and then just stay quiet about it.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,554]

If he wins Wisconsin, the war in courts begins. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Oil. Petroleum. Gas.  LNG.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

 Hitch your fading hope onto the Rasmussen polls if you want.  Maybe your campaign is still "rounding the corner" and any day now things will drastically improve. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

By these more recent results, applying the older 6% bias estimate gets Trump well over 300 EC votes and the popular vote by a smidge.

.

You always start with reasonable numbers, then warp the crap out of them to get the answer you want.  Why pretend there was a quantitative analysis at all?

 

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by Enthalpic

[0R0 + 6,251]

50 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

You always start with reasonable numbers, then warp the crap out of them to get the answer you want.  Why pretend there was a quantitative analysis at all?

 

 

Because I did it for real. The real clear politics poll stats for Friday came in so I plugged the numbers and adjusted for 2016 error numbers and got over 300 EC votes. I did the calculations online and plugged them into the real clear politics map. But I can do it on a spreadsheet and post it. Perhaps I will do it after then next round of polls early next week.

 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

My thinking is that Trump in a second term with the Senate is more of the status quo with increasingly extreme anti China stance. Abandoning the ME for Israel and the gulf states to arrange a containment of Iran. Or just as good, a flaming war that disrupts oil from the Gulf unless it is going through Israel to the Mediterranean and Europe.

Barring a Gulf conflagration, then shorn of green deal enmity the pipelines get built, the drilling widens and oil cycles through a number of boom bust cycles as the transition to gas/LNG progresses. EVs and solar continue gradually taking share where they make sense.

With the clear evidence of the broad collusion of Dems and businesses with China, Trump proceeds with a "retirement program" for the Obama/Biden/Clinton and friends in Dem politics. And cleans out the FBI and security agencies with some of the reforms his Libertarian technocrats have pushed onto deaf ears. Attacks on the personal piggy banks of the CCP elite outside China proceed with gusto and an effort is made to halt financial flows into China. (See Ray Dalio's piece in the FT, Trump is going to block that avenue for China to obtain dollars). Tariffs on China goods rise as they had broken their commitments of phase 1 already. On top of tariffs, automatically diminishing quotas  press China offshoring producers out of the country and into the US and Mexico.

Before 2024 Trump pulls the plug on China if it doesn't do it of its own accord as its alternative to a hostile world to the CCP was a warm Biden reception to reenter the world on the CCPs own terms. Without that option, China goes the N Korea route and cuts itself off from the world. The gambit either works to keep the country unified and surround the major economic centers around Shenzhen and. Shanghai so that they can't detach from China, or China is "helped" to fall apart by chopping up its navy and chasing it out of the Spratleys.Whereupon Beijing and the Center of China remain CCP and the coastal metros gain autonomy that is defacto independence. 

The new Chinese autonomous regions will remain highly dependent on foreign food and resources while the CCP center remains backwards but free of having to feed 1/3 of its people. They will remain fossil fuel driven, but will transition to LNG rather than Northern Chinese coal that has been choking them for decades.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Above is very well-written and thoughtful! I will attempt to take it one radical step farther, though I'm not as international as you. 

The world needs to understand that the extreme contagion of this virus was very well known in Wuhan by Christmas Day 2019 and yet the airport was kept open with 94 international destinations for another three weeks. Until the Lunar New Year began on January 15th. 

This is exceptionally important, as those 94 destinations involved all points of the world. In disseminating the virus in this manner--no matter whether it got loose from a laboratory or was carried in by a wild animal--President Xi used the virus to wage biological warfare on the world, basically declaring, de facto, WWIII. 

I'm not suggesting that the world respond militarily, as with previous world wars, but financially. Unfortunately, the China market is so large and interconnected to virtually every country's economy that such a move would be cumbersome. It could be performed, however, if the world were well enough informed to know of this very important air traffic decision. If Mr. Biden wins the Oval, it will be business as usual with China. If Mr. Trump gets four more years, he will starve China for U.S. dollars, wall off the Spratley Islands, bring home medication precursors (which are now in 90% of therapeutics) and even tech. 

All of this will obviously hurt the average Chinese, who didn't choose this. Or didn't they? Well, by tacitly approving the Chinese Communist Party and its Manifesto, they have indeed chosen this. That's an unfortunate truth. What does that mean? That the NIO will become "the car" of China, that an Apple iPhone lookalike becomes "the phone" of China, and so on. As you say above, China could very well become walled-off, an independent country that has become well adapted to international commerce but is now suddenly struggling to remain viable in the eyes of the world. They're resourceful; they will have their own vaccine, their medications, their renewables market. But not their own food. Humanitarian kindness will kick in there--in the current era, they will not be made to starve. 

But to come back to the common theme of this site, what would be their energy source? President Xi has made the deal with the devil re' Iranian oil, facilitating N. Korean nuclear sale to Iran, but striving to keep on friendly terms with KSA and Russia too. This is becoming increasingly difficult due to the shifting alliance of Arab oil states with Israel. I expect KSA to recognize Israel (if the election goes Mr. Trump's way; if Mr. Biden gets in, this sway toward Israel stops in its arc). President Xi is slowly realizing the craziness of burning high-sulfur coal to generate electricity for charging electric cars. Wind and solar won't cut it in China. Nuclear would come on strong as an energy source. In fact, with the isolation and sequestration of China, especially if Iran is shut down and KSA sways over to recognition of Israel, China could quickly become by far the nuclear energy capital of the world. 

Major omissions in warning of an infectious disease outbreak have consequences that far exceed initial pondering. I suspect that President Xi had no idea of the havoc the virus from Wuhan would wreak upon the world. I suspect that he thought it would be thought of as merely a spontaneous virus that quickly made its rounds, leveled the playing field, then hushed up and smoldered. He has to be utterly beside himself, knowing full-well the amount of human misery his tardy notification has caused--not so much because of empathy but concern about just the items I mentioned above; he's not stupid. The CCP will stop at nothing to get Mr. Biden elected--the future of China depends on it. Mr. Trump is trying, in his own way, to point this out to the world. I hope the world is watching. 

The catch is this damn virus! It has no face, but has touched almost every family in the United States. There is a lot of free-floating anger. In truth, Mr. Trump did something brilliant and prescient in blocking China air travel early (ignoring Mr. Biden's admonitions not to do so), but that message has been lost in all the anger. Mr. Trump has a face: some people are directing their virus anger toward that face.

One of the older and more accomplished posters on this site was proud of the fact that he was voting for Biden. But a vote for Biden is a vote for China. This gentleman went on to say that Biden wouldn't harm oil and gas. He should take a good look at Mr. Biden: unfortunately, an aging man who is frail and can't hold a thought or remember names and places. A vote for Biden is a vote for Kamela Harris for president. Does anyone in their right mind think we'll see an 82-year-old Joe Biden finishing up his term with grace and dignity, actually participating in policy? Just as President Xi sealed his fate (perhaps) with his decision to not notify the world of a new plague, elections have consequences. 

In this case, for the whole world. This election will decide global geopolitics for a very long time. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

Texas early vote split by party affiliation as of Friday

Little room for doubt who is leading.

Are pollsters ever going to look at the millions sampled in the election proper instead of the selected small representative samples and their weightings?

So far, looks like Biden's ghostly campaign rallies are reflected in the Dem turnout even in mail ins.

[0R0 + 6,251]

27 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Major omissions in warning of an infectious disease outbreak have consequences that far exceed initial pondering. I suspect that President Xi had no idea of the havoc the virus from Wuhan would wreak upon the world. I suspect that he thought it would be thought of as merely a spontaneous virus that quickly made its rounds, leveled the playing field, then hushed up and smoldered. He has to be utterly beside himself, knowing full-well the amount of human misery his tardy notification has caused--not so much because of empathy but concern about just the items I mentioned above; he's not stupid. The CCP will stop at nothing to get Mr. Biden elected--the future of China depends on it. Mr. Trump is trying, in his own way, to point this out to the world. I hope the world is watching. 

I have absolutely no doubt that the virus was spread intentionally with the harm intended being pre-determined and clear as there was a pandemic exercise of the WHO and major countries conducted with China at its center in 10 2019. Several international organization papers provide a chosen path of shutdowns and political actions in the context of a pandemic. They date back to 2015 in the UN. There was 0 doubt in Xi's mind that the chaos will ensue. China's military strategic plans have called for a deniable biological attack since the 1990s. There is no room for doubt that both China's industrial expansion in target industries and the pandemic are part of their perpetual war against the West and the US in particular.

Where things did not go Xi's way is that his own party is fracturing as opponents are speaking out, getting canned and continue to speak out. In the context of the US bribery campaign, there is a leaking of the blackmail material that Chinese bribery campaigns require of their assets. That is intended to have an impact on Xi's control of the CCP internally as like most of the CCP elite, his assets are abroad, and the bribery campaign's revelations are putting Xi's future in question as they flag his financial/real assets.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

All of this will obviously hurt the average Chinese, who didn't choose this. Or didn't they? Well, by tacitly approving the Chinese Communist Party and its Manifesto, they have indeed chosen this. That's an unfortunate truth. What does that mean?

This part of your comment gave me pause, and I'll try to explain why.  One must not forget, or should be informed, that most of the Chinese population over 55 years of age can personally recall 2 major events in the CCP's relatively recent history that resulted in as many as 90-100 million Chinese deaths, all at the hands of the CCP:  The Great Leap Forward (1958-1962) and the The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976).  The generation after that will also have a pretty clear understanding of those times by way of family storytelling.  Having studied these two events, and having ex-family members that had lived through them, gave me a firm understanding of what your average Chinese person sees as their limits to participation their own country's direction or, Mao forbid, most certainly their ability to make changes through opposition.  The Chinese may protest, and push further than one might imagine given that knowledge, but they know when the killings, "disappearings", and widespread economic controls upon the population begin, it is time to put your head down and concentrate on surviving.

The Chinese are hugely Nationalistic, but this is due to a number of things which cannot fully be blamed on the average citizen: Largely one-source news and records of history, having suffered horrendously at the hands of foreign powers in the not-too-distant past, their own experiences as being viewed as backward and behind the rest of the world due to locked borders, etc.  I still to this day like to see the average Chinese citizen earning some wealth, being able to travel and see the outside world, and being able to provide some sense of accomplishment and security for their young, whether or not that is entirely appreciated by those young (think one-child policy and how entitled and spoiled they tend to be.  Hmm, sound familiar?).

Anyway, all of the above and more won't allow me to think the average Chinese citizen is complicit in anything other than their own survival, even though that does tend to present itself as "get what you can while you can, before the CCP locks us down and life sucks again".  The average Chinese citizen does not really understand how the United States can be blamed for their plight or can be considered an enemy.  Japan, yes.  England, somewhat, absolutely.  Some others, a little bit.  But mostly they blame their own CCP and realize it needs to be encouraged when doing "good" and made to see "disappointed faces" when they do bad.

The average citizen may appear on video seemingly and vocally siding with the CCP, but never forget, as they never do, that the CCP is watching and listening.  And the CCP has a history...

[0R0 + 6,251]

To put the Chinese use of CV19 as an economic bioweapon here is a terrific article about the issue

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/china-covid-lockdown-propaganda

The goal was to save China from the inevitable demise of its manufacturing base due to uncompetitive labor, high input costs due to CCP and SOE monopolies. China tariffs and hopefully shut down Trump and get him out of office before he cans China's economy by killing off its access to dollar funding and trade.

The article shows how they used their influence peddling and social media expertise and broad bribery to promote lockdowns and broad breaches of civil rights to promote political instability.

and an associated one

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/technology/china-twitter-disinformation.html

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

27 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

To put the Chinese use of CV19 as an economic bioweapon here is a terrific article about the issue

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/china-covid-lockdown-propaganda

The goal was to save China from the inevitable demise of its manufacturing base due to uncompetitive labor, high input costs due to CCP and SOE monopolies. China tariffs and hopefully shut down Trump and get him out of office before he cans China's economy by killing off its access to dollar funding and trade.

The article shows how they used their influence peddling and social media expertise and broad bribery to promote lockdowns and broad breaches of civil rights to promote political instability.

and an associated one

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/technology/china-twitter-disinformation.html

 

To the CCP, the virus was looked at as pragmatically as introducing a computer virus upon a competitor's servers.  Very dispassionately, very deliberately.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

50 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

To put the Chinese use of CV19 as an economic bioweapon here is a terrific article about the issue

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/china-covid-lockdown-propaganda

The goal was to save China from the inevitable demise of its manufacturing base due to uncompetitive labor, high input costs due to CCP and SOE monopolies. China tariffs and hopefully shut down Trump and get him out of office before he cans China's economy by killing off its access to dollar funding and trade.

The article shows how they used their influence peddling and social media expertise and broad bribery to promote lockdowns and broad breaches of civil rights to promote political instability.

and an associated one

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/technology/china-twitter-disinformation.html

 

That article in The Tablet Mag is one of the most accurate depictions of the CCP I have ever read.  Before anyone discounts @0R0's comment, do take the time to read the full article and get some education.

[BLA + 1,666]

20 hours ago, 0R0 said:

My thinking is that Trump in a second term with the Senate is more of the status quo with increasingly extreme anti China stance. Abandoning the ME for Israel and the gulf states to arrange a containment of Iran. Or just as good, a flaming war that disrupts oil from the Gulf unless it is going through Israel to the Mediterranean and Europe.

Barring a Gulf conflagration, then shorn of green deal enmity the pipelines get built, the drilling widens and oil cycles through a number of boom bust cycles as the transition to gas/LNG progresses. EVs and solar continue gradually taking share where they make sense.

With the clear evidence of the broad collusion of Dems and businesses with China, Trump proceeds with a "retirement program" for the Obama/Biden/Clinton and friends in Dem politics. And cleans out the FBI and security agencies with some of the reforms his Libertarian technocrats have pushed onto deaf ears. Attacks on the personal piggy banks of the CCP elite outside China proceed with gusto and an effort is made to halt financial flows into China. (See Ray Dalio's piece in the FT, Trump is going to block that avenue for China to obtain dollars). Tariffs on China goods rise as they had broken their commitments of phase 1 already. On top of tariffs, automatically diminishing quotas  press China offshoring producers out of the country and into the US and Mexico.

Before 2024 Trump pulls the plug on China if it doesn't do it of its own accord as its alternative to a hostile world to the CCP was a warm Biden reception to reenter the world on the CCPs own terms. Without that option, China goes the N Korea route and cuts itself off from the world. The gambit either works to keep the country unified and surround the major economic centers around Shenzhen and. Shanghai so that they can't detach from China, or China is "helped" to fall apart by chopping up its navy and chasing it out of the Spratleys.Whereupon Beijing and the Center of China remain CCP and the coastal metros gain autonomy that is defacto independence. 

The new Chinese autonomous regions will remain highly dependent on foreign food and resources while the CCP center remains backwards but free of having to feed 1/3 of its people. They will remain fossil fuel driven, but will transition to LNG rather than Northern Chinese coal that has been choking them for decades.

ORO

You are extremely knowledgeable on all matters related to China, Economics and Finance.  I've learned a lot from you.

I hope all your prognoses come to be. I do not think China is as invincible as some believe , but I can't see China breaking up or abandoning their "Belt and Road" initiative even if a President Trump cuts them off. 

Did you go to the Peter Navarro School of Economics and China Policy ?

 

 

[BLA + 1,666]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

 .   .   .   .   .   

I'm not suggesting that the world respond militarily, as with previous world wars, but financially. Unfortunately, the China market is so large and interconnected to virtually every country's economy that such a move would be cumbersome. It could be performed, however, if the world were well enough informed to know of this very important air traffic decision. If Mr. Biden wins the Oval, it will be business as usual with China. If Mr. Trump gets four more years, he will starve China for U.S. dollars, wall off the Spratley Islands, bring home medication precursors (which are now in 90% of therapeutics) and even tech. .   .   .   .   .

 

My solution to China:

U.S. establish a set of "Fair Trade" Standards" for any country that exports product to U.S.

If they violate the Fair Trade Standards the U.S. gives them 6 months to correct. If they fail to abide a 10% duty on ALL products originating (can't ship to intermediate country) from that country.

Once the U.S. passes the standard allow 1 year before implementation.

All the U.S. companies that mfg in China, sell their products in the U.S.  and pay no U.S. Corp Income Tax hiding behind transfer pricing (ie Apple, etc) will tell their friends in the CCP to straighten up and play fair or we're out of here.

Keep it simple 

Duty 10% for violators

 

 

Edited October 26, 2020 by BLA

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Duty 10% for violators

They'll just adjust their currency to deal with that 10%, the solution is doubling the duty every quarter they don't comply. That will hurt enough they won't automatically cheat

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

ORO

You are extremely knowledgeable on all matters related to China, Economics and Finance.  I've learned a lot from you.

I hope all your prognoses come to be. I do not think China is as invincible as some believe , but I can't see China breaking up or abandoning their "Belt and Road" initiative even if a President Trump cuts them off. 

Did you go to the Peter Navarro School of Economics and China Policy ?

 

 

I see Navarro's POV as a geopolitical rather than an economic one. He is economically wrong but mercantile policy correct, which makes him overall correct, as in an uneconomic system such as China, the driver is not a profit motive but strategic benefit. So they will pursue dominance in an industry despite it producing copious losses that are that much worse once they have captured it.

I don't know that the BRI has gotten China anything but a surefire loss. Debt trap  "development assistance" gets you no friends and assures that you will lose your ports and dams to government takeovers. India is trying to buy off Myanmar with some Soviet era armaments. Interesting to see what they get from China's #2 client.

BRI cost China its liquid reserves. It is not a tradeoff they would have done for commercial purposes. It was an enormous boondogle serving domestic graft rather than geopolitics. Certainly not economically smart for China.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

30 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

2 hours ago, BLA said:

Duty 10% for violators

They'll just adjust their currency to deal with that 10%, the solution is doubling the duty every quarter they don't comply. That will hurt enough they won't automatically cheat

They are far more aggressive than that. They just showed us with the Aluminum tariffs. The response was to gain market share by providing Al smelters with free electricity.  So the electric companies in China lose a bucket load of money with each Al ingot shipped out of China. The SOE electric co. just borrows the money off the SOE bank and all is fine. Who needs cash flow? Well, it only works while savings volumes are rising. It doesn't when they fall. That is happening now as their boomers retire.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

My solution to China:

U.S. establish a set of "Fair Trade" Standards" for any country that exports product to U.S.

If they violate the Fair Trade Standards the U.S. gives them 6 months to correct. If they fail to abide a 10% duty on ALL products originating (can't ship to intermediate country) from that country.

Once the U.S. passes the standard allow 1 year before implementation.

All the U.S. companies that mfg in China, sell their products in the U.S.  and pay no U.S. Corp Income Tax hiding behind transfer pricing (ie Apple, etc) will tell their friends in the CCP to straighten up and play fair or we're out of here.

Keep it simple 

Duty 10% for violators

 

 

 

"Play fair, but we set all the rules."

Sounds like loser talk, personally I like winners.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

They are far more aggressive than that. They just showed us with the Aluminum tariffs. The response was to gain market share by providing Al smelters with free electricity.  So the electric companies in China lose a bucket load of money with each Al ingot shipped out of China. The SOE electric co. just borrows the money off the SOE bank and all is fine. Who needs cash flow? Well, it only works while savings volumes are rising. It doesn't when they fall. That is happening now as their boomers retire.

Canadian companies make money selling aluminum to the US. 

The US problem is lack of competitiveness.

[0R0 + 6,251]

https://yournews.com/2020/10/25/1894188/joe-bidens-campaign-calls-a-lid-on-in-person-campaigning/

Looks like Biden is preparing to leave the race.

So far they are taking him off the physical campaign stops.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, BLA said:

ORO

You are extremely knowledgeable on all matters related to China, Economics and Finance.  I've learned a lot from you.

I hope all your prognoses come to be. I do not think China is as invincible as some believe , but I can't see China breaking up or abandoning their "Belt and Road" initiative even if a President Trump cuts them off. 

Did you go to the Peter Navarro School of Economics and China Policy ?

 

 

The belt and road will dissolve into the ether and no one will speak of it in about 10 years or less (my SWAG).  It is neither sustainable nor as valuable as the CCP thinks it is, or at least want's the masses inside the country to believe.