United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/23/2021 at 10:19 AM, Tom Nolan said:

Elon Musk Now Wants To Drill For Natural Gas In Texas

Saturday, Jan 23, 2021 - 10:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/elon-musk-now-wants-drill-natural-gas-texas

Just months after Elon Musk moved his climate-change-fighting, alternative energy, "green" automaker to Texas, the CEO now has plans to drill for natural gas.

Multiple sources reported on Friday that Musk's SpaceX intends on drilling wells close to the company's Boca Chica launchpad, according to the Dallas News. The information came out Friday during a hearing before the Railroad Commission of Texas, the state’s energy regulator. SpaceX says it plans to use methane from the ground “in connection with their rocket facility operations.”

BLOOMBERG -  SpaceX Plans to Drill for Natural Gas Near Texas Launchpad

But SpaceX isn't drilling just yet - in fact, it is being held up by a legal dispute with another energy company. SpaceX's subsidiary, Lone Star Mineral Development, "bought the 806-acre La Pita oil lease from Houston-based Sanchez Energy, which was later renamed Mesquite Energy Inc. after exiting bankruptcy." The company's plans have been called into question by Dallas Petroleum Group, which is claiming ownership of some of the wells on the land. The dispute resulted in Friday's hearing, where's SpaceX's intentions were revealed. 

"There are almost a nearby dozen wells classified as either abandoned or dry holes, Railroad Commission Records show," the report says. 

SpaceX didn't answer any questions on Friday when reached for comments and questions about what, exactly, they would be using the natural gas for. SpaceX does plan "to utilize super-chilled liquid methane and liquid oxygen as fuel for its Raptor engines," the Dallas News noted. Tesla also has a new Gigafactory being built near Austin. 

In what we're sure was Musk trying to get ahead of this ugly headline, he Tweeted out on Thursday that he planned on donating $100 million toward finding the best new carbon capture technology. We're sure the timing of this Tweet - and the news that would follow less than 24 hours later - is just a coincidence. 

ELON MUSK TWEETS:   Am donating $100M towards a prize for best carbon capture technology

And so, we have come full circle. If you're a U.S. politician and/or regulator who encouraged Musk over the last decade - or pushed for him to get any kind of "green energy" subsidy - you should feel immensely stupid. But, we're sure you won't. We're certain you'll instead act like this isn't happening and isn't a stark punch in the gut to anyone who has supported Musk's boondoggles over the last decade under the guise of helping the environment.

Drill, baby, drill.

Bravo Elon Musk!

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Enno Peters has just posted the November production numbers from Pennsylvania on his fine 'Shaleprofile' site.

To put some context on both the size and economics (gas versus oil), one might discover some surprising (astonishing?) facts continuing to emerge, as can be seen from Enno's data.

Using a conversion factor of 5.8 - indicative of the heat content of 5,800 cubic feet of gas having the same heat potential of 1 barrel of oil - Pennsylvania now has ~2,600 wells having produced over 5.8 Billion cubic feet cumulative. (This is out of a total 9,944 ... giving a 26% rate).

Put another way, one out of every 4 wells in Pennsylvania has already produced the energy equivalent of a million barrel oil well.

 

Using the HH figure - as of this posting - of $2.74/mmbtu, natgas is costing <$16/bbl oil in energy content.

There are many reasons people are starting to use the term Age of Gas.

The above facts are big reasons for this.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:58 PM, Tom Nolan said:

Why Gazprom Cut Gas Supply To Europe Amid Rising Prices

By Tatiana Serova - Jan 25, 2021, 1:00 PM CST......

...The rate of depletion of these reserves can appear worrying, considering that they were 73% full in December 2020. Gas analyst Serguei Kapitonov, cited by OSN media, argues that these reserves are expected to be sufficient for 70 more days. This situation looks like a deja-vu, reminding us of the winter 2018 when Europe got to spring with almost empty storage sites : their average level was 20% in March.   ....

NG storage in EU.  Maybe you have this data or someone else.  I have been looking for NG storage in the EU and can not find it for the last several days.  Am I blind?  (__Have joke at my expense__) << obviously I am... >>

Is this for real?  Germany has less than 1.5 months of NG storage?  If all NG supplies were cut off and they have the best NG storage in Europe and Europe is looking to INCREASE wind/solar...?  😮    IF so, I am definitely going to start playing LNG futures for Europe. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

Dbl post

Edited January 27, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Europe and Gazprom

Quote

 

 In January, Gazprom exported to non-CIS countries a historically record volume of gas for this month - 19.4 billion cubic meters, the company said.

"Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries - 19.4 billion cubic meters of gas. This is 45.4% (6.1 billion cubic meters) more than in January last year, and the best indicator for this month in history. export supplies of the company, "- said in the message

It is noted that the purchase from Gazprom was increased by such large consumers of Russian gas as Germany - by 32.4%, Italy - by 221.5%, Turkey - by 20.8%, France - by 77.3%, the Netherlands - by 21.2% and Poland - 89.9%.

GAS PRODUCTION Gas production of Gazprom in January 2021, according to preliminary data, increased by 6.4% in annual terms and amounted to 47 billion cubic meters, the company said.

"According to preliminary data, gas production is 47 billion cubic meters, which is 6.4% (2.8 billion cubic meters) more than in January 2020," the statement said.

 

Quote

 

 

Russia LNG

Quote

 

Russia’s liquefied natural gas production rose by 3.5 percent last year to a total 30.5 million tons, according to data from Rosstat, the country’s official statistics agency.

In December alone, Russian producers turned out 2.85 million tons, which was up 1.4 percent on the year and 5.8 percent on November, Rosstat also reported.

Russia is a relative newcomer on the LNG market but has already staked a solid claim, eyeing a market share of 25 percent in the medium term, Deputy Prime Minister and former Energy Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month in an interview with news outlet RBC.

Meanwhile, thanks to its abundant natural gas reserves, the country has quickly become the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter, after Qatar, Australia, and the United States. Most of Russia’s LNG comes from the Yamal LNG project, majority owned and operated by Novatek.

spite its ambitious plans for liquefied natural gas, Russia, like other exporters, felt the pinch of lower demand amid the coronavirus epidemic, with LNG exports falling sharply in 2020 from 201

Despite its ambitious plans for liquefied natural gas, Russia, like other exporters, felt the pinch of lower demand amid the coronavirus epidemic, with LNG exports falling sharply in 2020 from 2019. Now that demand is beginning to improve, Novatek and Russia’s second LNG producer, Gazprom, will likely see higher shipments, especially to Asia, where demand for the fuel is most likely to rebound quickly and start growing.

In fact, Novatek expects the LNG market to swing into a deficit of 150 million tons annually by 2030 because of the delay or cancellation of final investment decisions on new capacity, a move in response to the pandemic’s effect on energy demand.

Yet the possibility of natural gas as a whole falling out of favor because of the energy transition and "falling out of the equation is grossly overstated," Novatek’s CFO Mark Gyetvay said, as quoted by Argus this week.

In fact demand for LNG will likely grow along with global renewable energy capacity thanks to coal phase-outs and plans for much greater hydrogen production, Gyetvay said at the virtual European Gas Conference.

 

Power of Syberia to China

Quote

 

Russia ramps up natural gas supplies to China via Power of Siberia mega-pipeline

Russian energy major Gazprom pumped more gas to China in January via the Power of Siberia pipeline than it had initially planned, boosting daily supplies by as much as 2.5 percent.

“The export of gas to China through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline continues to grow. Supplies regularly exceed Gazprom's daily contractual obligations,” the company said in a statement, adding that the volume of gas delivery last month “was 2.9 times higher than in January 2020.”

The 3,000km (1864 mile) cross-border pipeline started official deliveries of Russian natural gas to China in 2019. The so-called eastern route’s capacity is 61 billion cubic meters of gas per year, including 38 billion cubic meters for export.

The agreement on gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline was reached in 2014, with Russia’s energy giant Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) inking a 30-year contract. It is Gazprom’s biggest-ever agreement and the first natural gas pipeline between Russia and China.

Gazprom exported some 2.3 billion cubic meters of gas along the route during the first eight months of 2020. It plans to boost exports by an additional six billion cubic meters.

Russia is set to further increase supplies of piped gas to China, including via the Power of Siberia 2 project. The latter pipeline entered the design stage last year, and will be capable of delivering as much as 50 billion cubic meters of gas once finished. 

Gazprom intends to become China’s biggest supplier, making up more than 25 percent of gas imports by 2035.

 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

It was a good day (Monday Feb 1st)  for me.  I had over 1,000 shares of BOIL (Natural Gas ETF).  It went up to over 20%.  Hell...I sold and bought more silver.

BOIL - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BOIL?p=BOIL

Natural Gas went up about 26 cents - 10% - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Bloomberg - Friday February 5th

Ex-Shell Natural Gas Trader Pleads Guilty Over Role in Scheme

Michael Tobin and Sergio Chapa

Fri, February 5, 2021, 8:00 AM·2 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-shell-natural-gas-trader-140000857.html

(Bloomberg) -- A former Royal Dutch Shell Plc natural gas trader in Houston pleaded guilty to a criminal charge related to his role in an illegal scheme in which he sought to profit by using non-public information obtained from the company.

From roughly 2013 to 2018, Marcus Schultz disclosed the information to other traders and brokers in a conspiracy to profit from fraudulent gas futures trades, the Justice Department said in a federal court filing in Houston. Prosecutors said some of the trading occurred around the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly gas storage report, which can move prices by signaling whether the market is bullish or bearish based on underground inventories.

Shell Energy North America assisted the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with their investigations into Schultz, the company said in an emailed statement. His attorney declined to comment.

In a related case, former gas trader John Ed James pleaded guilty on Monday to one count of conspiracy to commit commodities fraud and wire fraud, the Justice Department said in a statement. The company he worked for wasn’t identified. The trades James arranged with others generated almost $1 million in illicit proceeds, the Justice Department said. James’s attorney declined to comment.

The scheme involved offsetting trades, which are opposite transactions for an equal number of contracts of the same delivery month, prosecutors said. By offsetting, traders can cancel delivery of the underlying commodity and profit off the difference between the price of the futures contract when the trade was initiated and the price when it was offset. Schultz pleaded guilty in July to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, the Justice Department said in the statement Monday.

In September, the CFTC said it settled charges against Schultz for misappropriating his employer’s confidential information to enter into fictitious trades. The order required Schultz to pay a civil penalty of almost $670,000 and repay about $427,000.

“There is no place in our company for this kind of behavior and that individual’s employment was terminated. We have fully cooperated with the authorities,” Shell said. The company is a major gas trader and operates one of the world’s largest fleets of liquefied natural gas carriers.

The case is United States of America v. Marcus Schultz, 4:20-cr-00270, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Texas (Houston)

[Tomasz + 1,608]

When I generally look at the weather in different regions of the world, we have probably the coldest winter in the Northern Hemisphere for quite a few years.  I  dont question global warming  only in the era of LNG oversupply, it is a moment of breath for all gas exporters.

For example from begining of February to 20th February in Warsaw- minus temperatures forecasted during day, in the night even something like -10C or more. Rather extraordinary cold in February in XXI century.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

8 hours ago, Tomasz said:

When I generally look at the weather in different regions of the world, we have probably the coldest winter in the Northern Hemisphere for quite a few years.  I  dont question global warming  only in the era of LNG oversupply, it is a moment of breath for all gas exporters.

For example from begining of February to 20th February in Warsaw- minus temperatures forecasted during day, in the night even something like -10C or more. Rather extraordinary cold in February in XXI century.

The solar cycle is different.  For about a decade we will be in the Grand Solar Minimum.  The planet as a whole will become cooler.  What this means is that growing seasons and weather patterns will become more volatile.  Even earthquakes are affected by the weakened solar activity.

I do question "global warming" or "manmade climate change".  I have spent thousands of hours researching the topic over the past 15 years.  It is an agenda.  It is an agenda that is being pushed.  And like other topics, the data and information which counter the elite's narrative gets censored. 

There is a ton of information about how the Elite have lied about Man-made Climate Change here...

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/21211-the-world-economic-forum-davos-setting-the-agenda-on-fossil-fuels-global-regulations-etc/?page=5#comment-144275

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Higher on Anticipation of ‘Massive Gains’ in Heating Demand

The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at $3.005, setting up an eventual rally into $3.320.

James Hyerczyk

Feb 05, 2021 3:07 PM GMT

James Hyerczyk is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader. James began his career in Chicago in 1982 as a futures market analyst for floor traders at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and numerous brokerage firms, and have been providing quality analysis for professional traders for 36 years.

Mr. Hyerczyk is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies, to futures, Forex and stocks. He provides educational services for investors looking to improve their analysis and trading skills.

James is also the author of two books on technical analysis:  Pattern, Price & Time: Using Gann Theory in Trading Systems and Pattern, Price & Time:  Using Gann Theory in Technical Analysis.

James has a B.A. in Business Administration from St. Xavier University and an M.S. in Financial Markets and Trading from the Illinois Institute of Technology.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-higher-on-anticipation-of-massive-gains-in-heating-demand-698664

Natural gas futures are up sharply on Friday, reaffirming the uptrend after buyers took out the previous main top at $3.005. Today’s rally is being fueled by the latest weather reports that continued to point toward increased heating demand in widespread region over the next two weeks.

At 14:41 GMT, March natural gas is trading $3.204, up $0.089 or +3.03%.

EBW Analytics Group Forecast

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) wrote, “As of early Friday both the European and American weather models had posted ‘massive gains’ in projected heating demand over the previous 24 hours, enough to put this month into the top 10 Februarys of the last 70 years in terms of gas-weighted heating degree days, according to EBW Analytics Group analysts.”

“By next Friday, Arctic air is expected to blanket much of the U.S. and extend toward the Gulf Coast. Large-scale freeze-offs are increasingly likely,” the EBW analysts said.

This raises the possibility of a 300 Bcf withdrawal for the February 12-18 time frame, a projection that doesn’t even take into account potential freeze-offs, according to the firm.

Bespoke Weather Services Forecast

Bespoke Weather Services said the weather models continued to trend “astonishingly colder” overnight, pushing the firm’s 15-day forecast more than 100 gas-weighted degree days colder than normal.

“The issue continues to be the development of a very cold Arctic air mass up in Canada, which is forced fully into the U.S. underneath the strong” North Atlantic Oscillation block “on the Atlantic side,” Bespoke said. “This block has been forecast to wane after mid-month, but timing of this has slowed, keeping colder momentum going for longer.

“Our sense remains that we move back to a variable pattern late month, but, for now, the theme is longer-lasting cold versus the previous forecast.”

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

S&P Global Platts said, “A string of massive weekly U.S. natural gas storage withdrawals, starting with the 192 Bcf pull reported February 4, have the potential to unravel recent forecasts, and prompt stocks to enter next year’s heating season more than 600 Bcf below the five-year average, marking a dramatic year over year reversal.

Natural gas storage inventories fell 192 Bcf to 2.689 Tcf for the week ended January 29, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), the EIA report was expected to show a withdrawal close to 200 Bcf.

The EIA recorded a draw of 155 Bcf during the similar week a year ago, and the five-year average withdrawal stands at 146 Bcf for the period.

 

 

Daily March Natural Gas

Daily Forecast

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at $3.005. The next upside target is the November 13 main top at $3.062. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the October 30 main top at $3.320 the next likely upside target.

The three-month range is $3.320 to $2.268. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $2.794 to $2.918. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. It is now support.

Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $2.918, and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $2.794. A trade through $2.734 will change the main trend to down.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NOTE - NatGas closed at $2.88 Friday

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Meteorologists Warn 'Deep Freeze' For The US Begins Next Week

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Feb 06, 2021 - 6:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/meteorologists-warn-deep-freeze-us-begins-next-week

Update (1500 ET): On Friday, BAMWX's meteorologists have posted numerous weather models that suggest frigid air is headed for some parts of the US. 

"This is the NAEFS which is the North American ensemble forecast system. This is a loop of 5 day chunks over the next 14 days. I have never seen this product forecast even close to this level of cold it's forecasting," said BAMWX's Twitter account. 

[IMAGES AND ANIMATION IN ARTICLE]

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

As mentioned prior on this THREAD and other THREADS, we are in a GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM.  For about 10 years, we will see a cooler planet over-all, but volatility in growing seasons and weather patterns.  Even volcanic activity and earthquakes are affected by solar activity.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Reuters - Feb 5th

Analysis: Out in the cold - how Japan's electricity grid came close to blackouts

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-cold-japans-electricity-grid-082706918.html

By Aaron Sheldrick and Yuka Obayashi

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's worst electricity crunch since the aftermath of the Fukushima crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in the country's recently liberalised power market, although some of the problems appear self-inflicted.

Power prices in Japan hit record highs last month as a cold snap across northeast Asia prompted a scramble for supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a major fuel for the country's power plants. Power companies urged customers to ration electricity to prevent blackouts, although no outages occurred.

The crisis highlighted how many providers were unprepared for such high demand. Experts say LNG stocks were not topped up ahead of winter and snow disabled solar power farms.

The hundreds of small power companies that sprang up after the market was opened in 2016 have struggled the most, saying the government does not disclose the market data they need to operate. The companies do not have their own generators, instead buying electricity on the wholesale market.

Prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) hit a record high of 251 yen ($2.39) per kilowatt hour in January, equating to $2,390 per megawatt hour of electricity, the highest on record anywhere in the world. One megawatt hour is roughly what an average home in the U.S. would consume over 35 days.

But the vast majority of the new, smaller companies are locked into low, fixed rates they set to lure customers from bigger players, crushing them financially during a price spike like the one in January.

More than 50 small power providers wrote on Jan. 18 to Japan's industry minister, Hiroshi Kajiyama, who oversees the power sector, asking for more accessible data on supply and demand, reserve capacity and fuel inventories.

"By organising and disclosing this information, retail electricity providers will be able to bid at more appropriate prices," said the companies, led by Looop Co.

They also called on Kajiyama to require transmission and distribution companies to pass on some of the unexpected profits from price spikes to smaller operators.

The industry ministry said it had started releasing more timely market data, and is reviewing the cause of the crunch and considering changes.

RETHINK

Japan reworked its power markets after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, liberalizing the sector in 2016 while pushing for more renewables.

But Japan is still heavily reliant on LNG and coal, and only four of 33 nuclear reactors are operating. The power crisis has led to growing calls to restart more reactors.

Kazuno Power, a small retail provider controlled by a municipality of the same name in northern Japan, where abundant renewable energy is locally produced, buys electricity from hydropower stations and JEPX.

During the crunch, the company had to pay nearly 10 times the usual price, Kazuno Power president Takao Takeda said in an interview. Like most other new providers, it could not pass on the costs, lost money, and folded. The local utility has taken over its customers.

"There is a contradiction in the current system," Takeda said. "We are encouraged to locally produce power for local consumption as well as use more renewable energy, but prices for these power supplies are linked to wholesale prices, which depend on the overall power supply."

The big utilities, which receive most of their LNG on long-term contracts, blamed the power shortfall on a tight spot market and glitches at generation units.

"We were not able to buy as much supply as we wanted from the spot market because of higher demand from South Korea and China," Kazuhiro Ikebe, the head of the country's electricity federation, said recently.

Ikebe is also president of Kyushu Electric Power, which supplies the southern island of Kyushu.

Utilities took extreme measures - from burning polluting fuel oil in coal plants to scavenging the dregs from empty LNG tankers - to keep the grid from breaking down.

"There is too much dependence on JEPX for procurement," said Bob Takai, the local head of European Energy Exchange, which started offering Japan power futures last year. He added that new entrants were not hedging against sharp price moves.

Three people, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, were more blunt. One called the utilities arrogant in assuming they could find LNG cargoes in a pinch. Prices were already rising as China snapped up supplies, the sources noted.

FALLOUT

"You had volatility caused by people saying 'Oh, well, demand is going to be weak because of COVID' and then saying 'we can rely more on solar than in the past,' but solar got snowed out," said a senior executive from one generator. "We have a problem of who is charge of energy security in Japan."

Inventories of LNG, generally about two weeks worth of supplies, were also not topped up enough to prepare for winter, a market analyst said.

The fallout from the crunch has become more apparent in recent days, with new power companies like Rakuten Inc suspending new sales and Tokyo Gas, along with traditional electricity utilities, issuing profit downgrades or withdrawing their forecasts.

Although prices have fallen sharply as temperatures warmed up slightly and more generation units have come back online, the power generator executive said, "we are not out of the woods yet."

($1 = 105.1700 yen)

(Reporting by Aaron Sheldrick and Yuka Obayashi. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Major Winter Storm! Heavy Snow, Arctic Blast & Ice! - POW Weather Channel

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Reuters - Feb 6th

Exclusive-Amazon orders hundreds of trucks that run on natural gas

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-amazon-orders-hundreds-trucks-185607121.html

By Laura Sanicola

(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc has ordered hundreds of trucks that run on compressed natural gas as it tests ways to shift its U.S. fleet away from heavier polluting trucks, the company told Reuters on Friday.

The coronavirus pandemic caused delivery activity to surge in 2020, with truck volumes exceeding 2019 levels on average while passenger car traffic fell. But that increase in road activity means more pollution, as heavier-duty trucks emit higher levels of greenhouse gases than passenger vehicles.

Transportation companies are building their stable of electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions. Much of the nation's freight is delivered via medium- and heavy-duty trucks, which account for more than 20% of the industry's greenhouse gas emissions even though they make up less than 5% of the road fleet, according to U.S. federal data.

"Amazon is excited about introducing new sustainable solutions for freight transportation and is working on testing a number of new vehicle types including electric, CNG and others," the company said in a statement.

Amazon has ordered more than 700 compressed natural gas class 6 and class 8 trucks so far, according to the company.

The online retailer's sales rose 38% in 2020; it plans to run a carbon neutral business by 2040.

The engines, supplied by a joint venture between Cummins Inc and Vancouver-based Westport Fuel Systems Inc, are to be used for Amazon's heavy duty trucks that run from warehouses to distribution centers. More than 1,000 engines that can operate on both renewable and non-renewable natural gas have been ordered by the supplier, according to a source familiar with the situation.

Natural gas emits approximately 27% less carbon dioxide when burned compared with diesel fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Electric-powered motors are considered less viable for heavy-duty trucks than for the average passenger vehicle.

In 2019, Amazon ordered 100,000 electric vans from startup Rivian Automotive LLC. The first of those vans, to be used for last-mile delivery to customers, are to be delivered this year. The company also ordered 1,800 electric vans from Mercedes-Benz for its European delivery fleet.

Other transportation companies are also experimenting with ways to reduce emissions.

In 2019, United Parcel Service Inc announced plans to buy more than 6,000 natural gas-powered trucks over three years and step up purchases of renewable natural gas (RNG) as part of a $450 million investment to reduce the environmental impact of its 123,000-vehicle fleet.

RNG and natural gas from fossil fuel are both methane gases and can be used interchangeably. RNG is derived from decomposing organic matter such as cow manure on dairy farms, discarded food in landfills and human waste in water treatment plants. It also prevents naturally occurring methane - a powerful greenhouse gas - from being released into the environment.

Amazon shares were down 0.1% in post-close trading. Shares of Cummins rose 4%, while the U.S.-listed shares of Canada-based Westport surged, gaining 47% in the aftermarket session.

(Reporting by Laura Sanicola; Additional reporting by Tim Aeppel and Lisa Baertlein; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Daniel Wallis)

 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Nolan

The Amazon CNG truck story prompted me to revisit the adsorption ('d', not 'b') realm ... something I had not explored for some time.

Pretty exasperating to locate up to date, cutting edge developments.

 

This Amazon purchase seems - in similar fashion to UPS's purchase of 6,000 CNG vehicles - to involve dedicated runs/returning to depots where overnight refueling can be easily done.

Looking deeper, it appears Westport may be 'going their own way' in separating from Cummins due largely to their differing approaches to optimal technologies in engine applications. (Essentially, whether or not to use minimal diesel for spark ignition versus pure methane at high pressure injection).

Engineering aside, the fuel storage has always been the big hurdle in using CNG.

Right now, anyone can go online, spend a few hundred bucks and purchase hardware conversion kits to change their existing gasoline/petrol ICE engines so as to run on  methane (or, in the case of hard pressed Venezuelans with no gasoline available, propane).

The change over can be done in a few hours by any competent mechanic.

 

Viable fuel storage had always been the biggest obstacle.

However, startling advances using MOFs/COFs (Metallic/Covalent Organic Frameworks) are enabling - in laboratory settings - the achievement of the Holy Grail threshold of sub 500 psi storage for effective commercialization.

 

While the ~5 million electric vehicles currently on the road - worldwide - receive all the attention, the nearly 30 million CNG/LNG vehicles are completely overlooked.

In the US today, CNG costs run between $1.50 to $2.50 GGE (Gallon of Gas Equivalent).

An Oklahoman can fill up his empty F 150 for under 50 bucks if he used CNG.

Furthermore, with over 50 million US households using natgas for heating, sub 500 psi storage would enable re-fueling right at a residence's driveway.

Enormous savings, convenience, and change to the historical  norm will follow should natgas - in the form of CNG - be adopted in broad fashion. 

 

It will be fascinating to observe how all this plays out.

 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

RE Amazon

Turn the clock back 13 years and that was a major part of the Pickens plan. Displace gas used in electricity with wind and utilise the gas for heavy road transport 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Is Clean Gas Worth The Premium?

By Irina Slav - Feb 08, 2021, 6:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Is-Clean-Gas-Worth-The-Premium.html

Join Our Community

When a company called Jonah Energy last year reported that it had become the first to be awarded a low-methane standard by the IES, it didn’t exactly steal the headlines. Yet the report was an early sign of a transformational trend looming over gas markets: methane certification. The Independent Energy Standards Corporation said last year it was expanding its TrustWell Responsible Gas program to include methane certification just as the gas - an indivisible part of natural gas production - started garnering more attention from media, environmentalists, and regulators alike.

In Europe, a non-profit organization was set up recently for the same purpose: MiQ is an independent certifier of methane emissions, which, according to senior advisor Georges Tijbosch, can help both gas producers and regulators.

Producers want to gain a competitive edge in an environment of intensifying competitions. They can do this by offering buyers cleaner, lower-emission gas, certified by an independent body such as MiQ or IES. Regulators, on the other hand, want stricter control of methane emissions but, to put it crudely, don’t know where to start. It’s a win-win for the industry and governments, according to Tijbosch.

Interestingly enough, it is also a win for buyers. Although it might sound counterintuitive at first, it appears that some gas traders would already prefer to pay a premium for gas that has been extracted with fewer methane emissions, Tijbosch told Oilprice. That’s despite a tight spending environment across the industry and it means a lot. It means the industry may be ready for the transformation that, Tijbosch says, will lead to a differentiated gas market.

Related: Is A Career In Oil Still A Safe Bet?
Methane emission reduction costs money. It would mean additional investments for energy companies. Yet it would be money well spent as it would give these companies an advantage over competitors.

“Trusted certificates based on robust technology give companies the tools they need to turn good climate stewardship into a competitive advantage and extract a premium for emission-free molecules,” Antoine Halff, chief analyst at Kayrros, told Oilprice. Halff, who added that the analytics company was launching a working group to examine the idea of a voluntary market in methane certificates “as a way to fast-track the elimination of methane emissions.”

The news may be good for those with the means and ambitions to reduce their methane footprint, but it may be bad news for others. U.S. LNG exporters may be among the latter after last year, French Engie canceled a $7-billion deal for the acquisition of a stake in the Rio Grande LNG project of NextDecade. The cancellation, according to media reports, came after pressure from the French government, which was worried about the emissions footprint of the natural gas that would be liquefied at the facility.

Greater regulatory and public attention to methane is driving a change, and this change would be challenging in more than one way. For starters, there are multiple points of methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain, Mark Davis, CEO of Capterio – a company that provides flaring elimination services – told Oilprice. Then there is the question of the investments that need to be made in reducing these emissions.

Related: Fossil Fuels Aren’t Going Anywhere

While the latter challenge of finding the money to plug the leaky parts of the supply chain remains, the leak detection challenge already has a solution: emissions tracking systems like the ones used by Kayrros to basically create a methane emissions map of the world.

Once the data on what and where is leaking is available, it would be a lot easier for companies to plan their emissions-reduction effort. LNG producers may seem more vulnerable than pipeline gas exporters since the liquefaction process itself involves methane emissions but, as MiQ’s Tijbosch noted, pipeline gas is also vulnerable because of the leak risk.

All gas producers will be affected by the push for methane verification, Kayrros’ Halff says, although in different ways. The responsible producers will benefit from being responsible as buyers opt for the cleaner gas. The less responsible ones will get an additional incentive to clean up their act. There is even a benefit for end-consumers: in exchange for a slightly higher price, Halff says, they would be able to load up on methane-free gasoline or use methane-free electricity just like they buy organic vegetables at a slightly higher price.

The issue of the higher price is only an issue on the surface, according to Davis, Tijbosch, and Halff. Despite tighter cash availability, many buyers appear willing to pay more for cleaner gas than less for dirtier gas. 

Last month, Wood Mackenzie issued a report that said this year will be a defining one for the natural gas industry. One of the reasons for this was the decarbonization drive spearheaded by European governments but taken up by others as well.

Methane certification has the potential to help the new priorities by providing companies with the means - and motivation - to reduce their methane footprint and by helping government regulators develop rules for emissions by setting standards for these emissions. It also has the potential to change the gas market in such a way as to ensure the bridge-fuel future of the commodity now that this future is being called into question because of methane emissions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Quote

 

Against the background of record growth in gas exports in January, Gazprom raised its forecast for the average price of supplies in 2021 to over $ 200 per 1,000 cubic meters. At the end of December, the company budgeted $ 170 per 1,000 cubic meters. Analysts believe it is "somewhat reckless" to make forecasts based on one month, and are reminded of the risks of competition with LNG. Nevertheless, if Gazprom's expectations are justified, then the company's revenue from gas exports could grow 1.7 times in 2021, to $ 42.1 billion.

The average export price of gas supplies by Gazprom in 2021 will exceed $ 200 per 1,000 cubic meters, the head of the company's financial department Alexander Ivannikov said on February 9. “The budget that we adopted in December 2020 was based on scenario conditions, implying an export price of around $ 170 per 1,000 cubic meters. By the end of January, we expect an average annual export price of 200 plus, which is more than $ 30 or more than the price targets set in the budget for next year, ”he said at a conference call (quoted from Prime ).

The company's forecast changed after high export figures in January , when Gazprom supplied non-CIS countries with a record 19.4 billion cubic meters of gas for this month. This is 45% higher than the January 2020 level and 18% higher than the average for the last five years. Since most of Gazprom's long-term contracts are tied to spot prices in Europe, the rise in prices in January amid abnormal cold weather will help Gazprom to increase the average portfolio price in the future. At the same time, despite the rise in gas prices, Gazprom did not seek to increase the volume of supplies to Europe via the Ukrainian route during this period, on the contrary, “drying up” the market and encouraging consumers to take gas from underground storage facilities.

In 2020, Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries due to a drop in demand amid the pandemic fell by about 10% year-on-year, to 179.3 billion cubic meters of gas. In some months, the company supplied gas to itself at a loss at a price below $ 100 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Maria Belova from Vygon Consulting believes that it is somewhat reckless to focus only on January, which, thanks to the abnormal cold weather in Europe, showed price records, while predicting the average annual price. But Gazprom's optimism is supported by the half-empty gas storage facilities, the need to fill up from April will keep gas prices at an acceptable level, even despite the pandemic, and steadily rising oil prices, which will also have a positive effect on Gazprom's contract prices. Moreover, the estimate of $ 200 per 1,000 cubic meters is broadly in line with the average annual TTF price in 2021, according to the current forward curve.

According to Maria Belova's calculations, if the average annual export price of Gazprom in 2021 is $ 200 per 1,000 cubic meters, and supplies abroad - about 210 billion cubic meters, then revenue will increase 1.7 times - to $ 42.1 billion.

Competition with liquefied gas may cast doubt on Gazprom's expectationshttps://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4682292, says Sergey Kapitonov, an analyst at the Energy Center of the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo. “Already today, we see that the Asian premium, which reached double-digit numbers at the abnormal January peaks, has dropped to $ 1.3 per MBTU,” he says. “And the difference in the cost of summer futures in Europe and Asia is already below $ 1 per MBTU. As a result, more LNG will be supplied to Europe, which will put pressure on Gazprom's export figures. ” In addition, the analyst recalls, the supply of LNG from plants in the United States will grow this year, and "whether the Asian markets will absorb new volumes is still in question." Sergei Kapitonov also notes that Gazprom's export volumes this year will be objectively limited by "the concern's desire or unwillingness to book additional capacities on the Ukrainian corridor." Nevertheless, in his opinion, Gazprom's forecast for an average price of $ 200 per 1,000 m3.

 

r

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/22634-lng-cng-biogas-hydrogen-blends-for-new-ships/

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/8/2021 at 12:46 PM, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Nolan

The Amazon CNG truck story prompted me to revisit the adsorption ('d', not 'b') realm ... something I had not explored for some time.

Pretty exasperating to locate up to date, cutting edge developments.

 

This Amazon purchase seems - in similar fashion to UPS's purchase of 6,000 CNG vehicles - to involve dedicated runs/returning to depots where overnight refueling can be easily done.

Looking deeper, it appears Westport may be 'going their own way' in separating from Cummins due largely to their differing approaches to optimal technologies in engine applications. (Essentially, whether or not to use minimal diesel for spark ignition versus pure methane at high pressure injection).

Engineering aside, the fuel storage has always been the big hurdle in using CNG.

Right now, anyone can go online, spend a few hundred bucks and purchase hardware conversion kits to change their existing gasoline/petrol ICE engines so as to run on  methane (or, in the case of hard pressed Venezuelans with no gasoline available, propane).

The change over can be done in a few hours by any competent mechanic.

 

Viable fuel storage had always been the biggest obstacle.

However, startling advances using MOFs/COFs (Metallic/Covalent Organic Frameworks) are enabling - in laboratory settings - the achievement of the Holy Grail threshold of sub 500 psi storage for effective commercialization.

 

While the ~5 million electric vehicles currently on the road - worldwide - receive all the attention, the nearly 30 million CNG/LNG vehicles are completely overlooked.

In the US today, CNG costs run between $1.50 to $2.50 GGE (Gallon of Gas Equivalent).

An Oklahoman can fill up his empty F 150 for under 50 bucks if he used CNG.

Furthermore, with over 50 million US households using natgas for heating, sub 500 psi storage would enable re-fueling right at a residence's driveway.

Enormous savings, convenience, and change to the historical  norm will follow should natgas - in the form of CNG - be adopted in broad fashion. 

 

It will be fascinating to observe how all this plays out.

 

 

The new technologies for lighter stronger tanks has been going on for at least twenty years. The changes have been revolutionary. The adsorbent tanks have taken a long time due to technological issues beyond my ken. Another advantage they have is that they can be formed in many shapes to fit into convenient areas of vehicles and not use up too much space. 

The advantage of filling up at home or at a business is that the pumping equipment is far less expensive. 

There are four times as many natural gas vehicles on the road as electric ones and they are far larger overall. That does not include ships, which use more power than locomotives in some cases. 

http://www.iangv.org/current-ngv-stats/

http://www.iangv.org/

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by ronwagn
add

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/26/2021 at 7:00 PM, ronwagn said:

Bravo Elon Musk!

Natural gas is IMO the best solution for rapid improvement in America's air quality. Better than any large economy in the world by replacing coal plants. I do not believe that wind turbines or solar plants are substantially cleaner overall. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Dangerously Cold Temperatures Pour Into Europe This Week

Wednesday, Feb 10, 2021 - 11:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dangerously-cold-temperatures-pour-europe-week

While the Arctic blast over the central US is set to worsen in the coming days (see: here & here), temperatures in northern Europe are set to dive as low as -20 degrees Celsius (-36 degrees Fahrenheit), data firm Maxar Technologies said in a report on Wednesday. 

The pattern of exceptionally frigid air blasting parts of the US and Europe at the moment is due to a disruption of the polar vortex, which has allowed Arctic air to spill south into North America and Europe. 

Maxar said European heating degree days (HDD) between Feb. 10-14 would register around 102, which is well above the ten-year average of 82.1. HDD is a measurement designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building. 

However, there is good news following dangerously cold air that has poured into Europe since early January and sent natural gas prices sky-high - that is - temperatures are expected to return to normal by next Friday across the UK, continental Europe, and the Nordic region.

"High pressure over northern Europe will slowly move to the continent and this will slowly cut off the supply of cold Arctic air and the general flow will veer more to southwesterly directions in the course of the next week. Tomorrow through Sunday will be very cold and mostly dry with well below normal temperatures and strong night frost. Next week will start similar but daytime highs will increase and will be partially above zero especially in the west. The second half of the next week will be generally milder with near normal temperatures and the west sould see occasional light rain. A breakthrough of mild and wet weather with strong winds is not likely as high pressure seems to remain dominant over the continent," Reuters' Greg Muller said. 

The Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts cold weather for Europe through Sunday. 

Energy traders usually look at forecasts a few weeks out - so with warming trends ahead - natgas prices in the UK have recently slipped after a huge upside move earlier this year. 

 

In January, Russia's Gazprom delivered a record amount of natgas to Europe amid the cold weather. 

Climate alarmists, such as Greta Thunberg, have been absent this year to explain why Europe and the US are experiencing fridge temperatures. 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Reuters - Feb 9th

Chesapeake Energy emerges from bankruptcy and shifts back to natural gas

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chesapeake-energy-emerges-bankruptcy-shifts-215525317.html

By Jennifer Hiller

HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. shale producer Chesapeake Energy Corp on Tuesday exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy with business plan that nods to its founders' emphasis on natural gas after a recent push into crude oil.

Once the second-largest U.S. natural gas producer, Chesapeake was felled by a long slide in gas prices and heavy debts from overspending on deals. Two years ago it paid $4 billion in a bet on shale oil firm WildHorse Resource Development. But oil prices fell after the deal closed.

The company plans to focus 85% of this year's spending on gas fields in the U.S. Northeast and Louisiana, and will let its oil output decline, Chief Executive Doug Lawler said in an interview.

It aims to spend between $700 million and $750 million per year on new projects that could generate $400 million in annual free cash flow, he said.

Chesapeake filed for court protection last June and won approval last month for a plan that shed about $7.7 billion in debt.

It was unable to invest enough in operations to turn a profit while simultaneously paying down $9 billion in debt. That "led us to make decisions that weren't always the best," said Lawler, who took over the firm in 2013.

"We were never able to invest in our assets to the benefit of our shareholders," he said.

Chesapeake last week dismissed 220 workers, or 15% of its workforce, and said raised $1 billion in new debt to complete its bankruptcy exit.

Two of Chesapeake's oilfields in South Texas and in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming have kept their costly gas transportation agreements despite the bankruptcy. That makes future oil investments most likely instead in its Brazos Valley field in Central Texas it bought from WildHorse, which has cheaper transportation costs, said John Thieroff, vice president at debt rating firm Moody's Investors Service.

The company will have around $100 million in interest payments annually, down from $650 million in 2019, Thieroff said.

Chesapeake was founded in 1989 by wildcatters Aubrey McClendon and Tom Ward. As CEO McClendon snapped up drilling land across the United States in a belief that gas prices would stay high. However, McClendon stepped down in 2013, as investigations swirled into possible antitrust violations, and later died in a car accident.

(Reporting by Jennifer Hiller; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Panic Across The Plains States As Nat Gas Prices Explodes To $80

Thursday, Feb 11, 2021 - 21:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/panic-across-plains-states-nat-gas-prices-explodes-80

One look at the price of nat gas in the central states and you'd think it was a pennystock with a 1000% short interest: behold the price of Southern Star nat gas spot (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas). It just hit $38 and is normally $2. Other spot prices for the same region are more than twice as high as we explain below.

Why the stratospheric increase in prices?

As S&P Global Platts explains, the Midcontinent led the surge in US gas prices in Feb. 11 trading as a sharp rise in heating demand met a sudden collapse in supply due to regional production freeze-offs, significantly tightening balances across the much of the Central US, where many places found themselves with virtually no nat gas.

In morning trading, cash prices at hubs in Kansas, Oklahoma and eastern Arkansas hit levels not seen since 2014, with select locations hitting record highs, ICE data showed.

At One Oak Gas Transmission, Southern Star and Enable Gas, spot prices reached record highs around $85, $45 and $30/MMBtu, respectively.

At other hubs, including ANR Oklahoma, Panhandle and NGPL Midcontinent, prices hit their highest in seven years, topping $16, $14 and $12/MMBtu, respectively.

The culprit behind this unprecedented supply/demand imbalance: freezing cold.  During the upcoming holiday weekend, the Midcontinent population-weighted temperature is forecast to dip below 0 degrees Fahrenheit before slowly thawing to above freezing by the following weekend.

As heating demand from homes and businesses rises, topping 5 Bcf/d on Feb. 11, colder temperatures have also prompted wellhead freeze-offs, cutting production receipts just when they're most needed. Mid-continent gas production was estimated at 5.5 Bcf/d, down about 800 MMcf/d, or 13%, compared with the prior 30-day average, S&P Global Platts Analytics data shows.

So as regional production gets squeezed and hub prices rise, Midcon markets have sharply reduced net gas transmissions to neighboring markets – most notably Texas and the Southeast. On Feb. 11, net volumes leaving the Midcon fell by a whopping 90% to about 335 MMcf/d – down from an average 2.9 Bcf/d in the 30-days prior.

Other markets across the US – particularly those supplied by the Midcon – saw a similar, though less pronounced, uptick in gas prices in Feb. 11 trading.

Texas

In neighboring Texas, the cash price for Houston Ship Channel increased $6.26/MMBtu on the day to $10.796/MMBtu – its highest level since July 2008. Across the state, the population-weighted average temperature is expected to fall from 15 degrees F below normal Feb. 11 to 37 F below normal by Feb.15, Platts Analytics data showed.

Texas demand sat at 15.5 Bcf on Feb. 11 and was forecast to tick higher to 23.6 Bcf as temperatures continue to fall. As Texas keeps more gas at home to meet the higher demand, net outflows fell by 1 Bcf on Feb. 11 to 10.6 Bcf/d.

Rockies & West

Spot gas prices in the Rockies soared to levels rarely seen in the last 10 years. Cheyenne Hub was trading $9.07 higher at $14.70/MMBtu – the highest price since February 2014. CIG, Rockies saw a similar upward trajectory, trading $8.45 higher to $13.28/MMBtu.

Heightened demand for Rockies gas in other regions comes just as local demand hits seasonal highs. The average temperature in the Rockies was forecast to fall to 19 F on Feb. 12, plunging to 6 F on Feb. 14. Frigid temperatures pose additional upside risk for prices amid possible production freeze-offs. Cash gas prices in the Permian Basin, another production region which has seen increased competition for supply, also surged in Feb. 11 trading. Waha Hub was trading $5.88 higher at $10.42/MMBtu – also the location's highest since February 2014.

Midwest

Prices gains in the upper Midwest were muted in comparison to the Midcontinent. At Chicago city-gates, prices spiked to new highs reaching $8.11/MMBtu, up $4.13 from the day prior, to its highest level since March 2019. The spread between Chicago city-gates and Henry Hub reached a $2.19 premium, the first time a premium has been this high since January 2019, S&P Global Platts data showed.

Across the entire central US, including the Midcon and Upper Midwest, demand is projected to hit 49.5 Bcf/d on Feb. 15, an all-time high since Platts began recording data in 2005. Heating demand, meanwhile, is expected to reach its highest level since 2019 at 42.5 Bcf/d, about 29 Bcf higher than the five-year average, analytics data shows.

Northeast

Historically the most volatile region for gas prices, the Northeast remained comparatively insulated from the Feb. 11 market surge. At Algonquin city gates, prices rose $1.57 to $12.67/MMBtu; Iroquois Zone 2 rose $2.12 to $12.49/MMBtu. Both locations marked their highest prices since December 2019. According to the US National Weather Service, Boston temperatures are expected to reach a low of 11 degrees F on Feb. 12, while New York City temperatures are forecast to reach a low of 21 F – both adding upward pressure to gas prices on the day.

Frigid weather is expected to persist throughout the next week, continuing to evaporate storage inventories and likely keeping spot gas prices elevated across the region.

* * *

Needless to say, if anyone was short any midcontinent nat gas,  they just experienced a short squeeze orders of magnitude worse than the one that almost destroyed Melvin Capital. May they rest in peace.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bystander and news videos capture the scene of a pileup involving about 133 cars on a Ft Worth Texas freeway Thursday Feb 11th afternoon which left six people dead and multiple people trapped in vehicles.   Ice on roadways.

(2 minute video)