.

[turbguy + 1,543]

16 minutes ago, wrs said:

Which is why I have purchases a generator and am waiting on a meter disconnect order so we can install it.  We had three power disruptions this past Thursday for about 5 minutes each and I found out they were ERCOT related.

Does your generator installation include an auto-transfer switch?

I'm on "ranch power", which tends to be less reliable as there are no backfeeds to employ in the distribution system.  I'm at the end of a loooong distribution branch/circuit.  If one stepdown transformer on my circuit branch has a "bad day", it trips the entire branch.  At least we can see the smoke in the distance.

When we call the REA operator to report an outage, she answers "We'll get right on it, as soon I find out who has the truck today".

PLANNED distribution outages (where the REA notifies you that power will be intentionally off for system maintenance) occur about once or twice a year.

13 KW Generac here (nat gas fired), at this altitude, it's derated to 9.5 KW (on a warm day).

Edited April 18, 2021 by turbguy

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

3 hours ago, wrs said:

Which is why I have purchases a generator and am waiting on a meter disconnect order so we can install it.  We had three power disruptions this past Thursday for about 5 minutes each and I found out they were ERCOT related.

I did see that on foxnews, which normally wouldn't make the news. I bet in near future ERCOT will be broken up and new management for fixing the ''broken'' system. Too many lawsuits in near future will kill the old system. It really did suck when the temp was 2F and no power at the RV park 1 mile west of Ft. Stockton. I burned 60 gallons of diesel just so my bus would freeze up, or me lol. Ice coated everything... You are smart getting genset, and get the auto-transfer. Worth it !!!

[nsdp + 449]

7 hours ago, turbguy said:

Does your generator installation include an auto-transfer switch?

I'm on "ranch power", which tends to be less reliable as there are no backfeeds to employ in the distribution system.  I'm at the end of a loooong distribution branch/circuit.  If one stepdown transformer on my circuit branch has a "bad day", it trips the entire branch.  At least we can see the smoke in the distance.

When we call the REA operator to report an outage, she answers "We'll get right on it, as soon I find out who has the truck today".

PLANNED distribution outages (where the REA notifies you that power will be intentionally off for system maintenance) occur about once or twice a year.

13 KW Generac here (nat gas fired), at this altitude, it's derated to 9.5 KW (on a warm day).

I figure living in Big Sky country is worth a few minor inconveniences such as 70 miles to the nearest Walmart like my nephew. Your REA,available nat. gas  and telephone beats my  grandfather's old wind charger and coal stove and smoke signals.   Hard to believe Randal county has nearly 200,000 people these days. "Pave Paradise an put up a parking lot"

[nsdp + 449]

4 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I did see that on foxnews, which normally wouldn't make the news. I bet in near future ERCOT will be broken up and new management for fixing the ''broken'' system. Too many lawsuits in near future will kill the old system. It really did suck when the temp was 2F and no power at the RV park 1 mile west of Ft. Stockton. I burned 60 gallons of diesel just so my bus would freeze up, or me lol. Ice coated everything... You are smart getting genset, and get the auto-transfer. Worth it !!!

How far is it from Ft.  Stockton to Van Horn?  EPE had their act together so you would have electricity.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I did see that on foxnews, which normally wouldn't make the news. I bet in near future ERCOT will be broken up and new management for fixing the ''broken'' system. Too many lawsuits in near future will kill the old system. It really did suck when the temp was 2F and no power at the RV park 1 mile west of Ft. Stockton. I burned 60 gallons of diesel just so my bus would freeze up, or me lol. Ice coated everything... You are smart getting genset, and get the auto-transfer. Worth it !!!

Ah the schadenfreude! You guys need to get some of the California utilities to come in and fix your broken grid. 🙂 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

7 minutes ago, nsdp said:

How far is it from Ft.  Stockton to Van Horn?  EPE had their act together so you would have electricity.

70 miles, all of which is Texas New Mexico power. 

[nsdp + 449]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ah the schadenfreude! You guys need to get some of the California utilities to come in and fix your broken grid. 🙂 

Having participated in the US Bankruptcy Trustee's criminal task force back in 2002 and the 2011 NERC review of ERCOT February and august failures. I will definitely trade you.  Both have had corrupt governors (excluding Arnie) since 2001, Both PUC's need Grey's anatomy and a geology text to tell their posterior from a hole in the ground and maps to find the latrine. But CAISO is reasonable honest and the federal monitor prevents most game playing on prices.   ERCOT does what  ever  Daddy Warbucks wants on we have no monitor with teeth.

[turbguy + 1,543]

9 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

70 miles, all of which is Texas New Mexico power. 

I'd say it's time for some competition for ERCOT, eh?

El Paso Power looking to expand its service area??

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by turbguy

[nsdp + 449]

7 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

70 miles, all of which is Texas New Mexico power. 

Yes but Ft. Stockton is connected to EPE by 69kv.  That is WECC not ERCOT.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

1 minute ago, nsdp said:

Yes but Ft. Stockton is connected to EPE by 69kv.  That is WECC not ERCOT.

Well, I think is intertwined as 10,000 plus whirly gens, and tens of thousands of acres of solar all power going east....

[nsdp + 449]

6 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I'd say it's time for some competition for ERCOT, eh...

 

That is what  Rick Perry(R)  and Greg Abbott(R) and Dan Patrick(R) claim we have.  Remember Pete Wilson (R) competition although Gov. Moonbeam (D and Gavin (D) are just as screwed up in their pet projects they sponsor.   Ours are honest; they engage in outright thievery.

Edited April 18, 2021 by nsdp

[nsdp + 449]

7 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Well, I think is intertwined as 10,000 plus whirly gens, and tens of thousands of acres of solar all power going east....

PUCT would not let EPE extend  power lines past Van Horn. Keep it all for Texas(Last time I looked El Paso was in Texas but Beto lives there).

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

3 minutes ago, nsdp said:

PUCT would not let EPE extend  power lines past Van Horn. Keep it all for Texas(Last time I looked El Paso was in Texas but Beto lives there).

Ft. Stockton is east of Van Horn 70 miles on interstate 10. Do a google satty view of the area in 60 miles circle around 79735. Fairly up to date.

[nsdp + 449]

31 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

70 miles, all of which is Texas New Mexico power.

I was thinking may be start the bus and drive to Van Horn for the week.   Unless things have changed forTNP,  in that area is/was served though a 13kv tie with Southwestern Public Service at a tie in Jal NM.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,245]

5 minutes ago, nsdp said:

I was thinking may be start the bus and drive to Van Horn for the week.   Unless things have changed forTNP,  in that area is/was served though a 13kv tie with Southwestern Public Service at a tie in Jal NM.

That was back in Feb, 15th at 1:30 am.......we all lost power. That's how I came to the conclusion that TNMP is tied into the grid of ERCOT. It was a nasty ice storm then 2 days of freezing fog that killed all the turbines. From north of Lubbock to Abilene clear down to Ft. Stockton, not a blade was gonna turn. And all the solar panels were iced over, so i guesstimate about 10GW lost and like dominoes, one fell then chain reaction. Overloaded circuits tripped and even the NG gens died then the Coal was frozen and everything from West Texas to Houston died, even the Nukes....  Some on here blame NG freezing that started the mess but should check the facts as to what fell first and dominos fell next and so on. It's been hashed a ton here but some don't to admit the Green Energy fell first and started the tripping and overloads. But some understand, eh @Ward Smith

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Texas Politicians Aim to Penalize Wind and Solar in Response to Outages. Are Renewables Now Strong Enough to Defend Themselves?

One of the groups taking a stand is the Partnership for Renewable Energy Finance, which includes tech companies that are major consumers of renewable energy, like Amazon and Google, and financial companies that are heavily involved in renewable energy projects, like Goldman Sachs and and BlackRock. The group sent a letter this month to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the Republicans who are in charge in the state House and Senate.

“Our companies have invested tens of billions of dollars in the state partly because of our confidence in Texas’ historically friendly business environment,” the group said in the April 6 letter, signed by Gregory Wetstone, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy, the lead organizer of the energy finance group.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17042021/texas-politicians-wind-solar-natural-gas-winter-storm/

[turbguy + 1,543]

1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

That was back in Feb, 15th at 1:30 am.......we all lost power. That's how I came to the conclusion that TNMP is tied into the grid of ERCOT. It was a nasty ice storm then 2 days of freezing fog that killed all the turbines. From north of Lubbock to Abilene clear down to Ft. Stockton, not a blade was gonna turn. And all the solar panels were iced over, so i guesstimate about 10GW lost and like dominoes, one fell then chain reaction. Overloaded circuits tripped and even the NG gens died then the Coal was frozen and everything from West Texas to Houston died, even the Nukes....  Some on here blame NG freezing that started the mess but should check the facts as to what fell first and dominos fell next and so on. It's been hashed a ton here but some don't to admit the Green Energy fell first and started the tripping and overloads. But some understand, eh @Ward Smith

I hope you don't expect solar to perform very well after sunset.  That's kind of a reliable expectation. 

Overloaded circuits tripped?  Perhaps. Source??

The chart of generation outages vs time at the time you reference (in reasonable granularity) was posted many pages back. But here it is below.  EACH ONE OF THOSE DARK GREEN DOTS NEEDS AN EXPLANATION!!

I might have been a  participant of the initial load shed order. Or you might have been subject to a localized distribution system failure (tree limb, squirrel, corn snake).

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,543]

42 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Texas Politicians Aim to Penalize Wind and Solar in Response to Outages. Are Renewables Now Strong Enough to Defend Themselves?

One of the groups taking a stand is the Partnership for Renewable Energy Finance, which includes tech companies that are major consumers of renewable energy, like Amazon and Google, and financial companies that are heavily involved in renewable energy projects, like Goldman Sachs and and BlackRock. The group sent a letter this month to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the Republicans who are in charge in the state House and Senate.

“Our companies have invested tens of billions of dollars in the state partly because of our confidence in Texas’ historically friendly business environment,” the group said in the April 6 letter, signed by Gregory Wetstone, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy, the lead organizer of the energy finance group.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17042021/texas-politicians-wind-solar-natural-gas-winter-storm/

Thy need to own up to some ancillary service costs.

[nsdp + 449]

3 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

That was back in Feb, 15th at 1:30 am.......we all lost power. That's how I came to the conclusion that TNMP is tied into the grid of ERCOT. It was a nasty ice storm then 2 days of freezing fog that killed all the turbines. From north of Lubbock to Abilene clear down to Ft. Stockton, not a blade was gonna turn. And all the solar panels were iced over, so i guesstimate about 10GW lost and like dominoes, one fell then chain reaction. Overloaded circuits tripped and even the NG gens died then the Coal was frozen and everything from West Texas to Houston died, even the Nukes....  Some on here blame NG freezing that started the mess but should check the facts as to what fell first and dominos fell next and so on. It's been hashed a ton here but some don't to admit the Green Energy fell first and started the tripping and overloads. But some understand, eh @Ward Smith

I have OATI https://www.oati.com/  which is a real time log in for the Canadian, US and NERC portions of CFE, and that tells me two things. First there was only 3650mw of wind on line and 1780 of that was in the South Texas zone and never went off line.   870 mw in scattered wind farms  is not enough power loss to trip any emergency  settings on any circuit at 345kv much less start load shedding.  CPS lost Spruce 2(972mw coal) prior to that due to a frozen coal pile.  Two more coal plants failed and then South Texas #1 went off with a frozen condenser feed pump.  None of the wind trips changed either the grid frequency or the grid inertia so as to exceed relay settings http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html and start the cascade.  The drop in grid frequency to 59.4 hertz for 4+ minutes was a function of one of the WA Parish units tripping  and several NG units.   Second , posters here aren't smart enough to understand either MVARS, inertial moment, or angular rotational mass as components of grid stability. https://www.nerc.oati.com/NERC/sys-login.wml

Second no one uses facts when they contradict their personal bias. At its worst, over 17,000 MW of natural gas was offline in this preliminary data. This occurred in the early morning of February 15th. https://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF03/20210324/111366/HHRG-117-IF03-20210324-SD023.pdf

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 4/17/2021 at 9:42 PM, nsdp said:

One way is a statistical analysis of production by county. Lea. Eddy, and Chaves counties (Permian basin producing counties)in NM suffered less than a 10% reduction.  Andrews, Borden and counties served 100% by Southwestern Public Service and/or Golden Spread Electric Coo,p as part of the Southwest Power Pool show about 12% drop.   Other counties?  Well that seems to be a different story. The freeze offs seem to be located in counties served by ERCOT members whether in the Permian,  Woodbine, Eagle Ford, Barnett or older plays in Texas.  But none in the Anadarko/Granite Wash.   GSEC customers in ERCOT froze too.  

turbguy,

Wonder if Austin will waive excess royalties on state lands and severance taxes on  all production?   State stands to collect a lot of extra money (several billion) from the overcharges.   Louisiana tried that  back in the late 1970's and lost.   Maryland vs Louisiana., 451 U.S. 725 (1981). I still remember Carmack Blackmun' s face when  Whizzer White broke the news.  Louisiana had to pay 12 % interest on the tax  refunds too.

I've explained this in detail months ago. In order, this is what happened. The cold weather and freezing rain came with a large wind system. Wind turbines had been spinning nicely but the freezing rain and snow shut them down. The 20 gw they had been producing, now suddenly gone was to be made up by Gas turbines. However, the demand due to the cold was more than 70 gw and there wasn't nearly enough gas electric production to meet that demand.

ERCOT started shedding load, which included the power supplies running the compressors the gas producers needed. No power, no gas, no gas, no electricity, no electricity, more shed load, lather, rinse, repeat. See my post just days ago about the EPA forcing the gas companies to not have the option you yourself want to have which is a backup generator running most likely on natural gas with a possible dual fuel option for liquid fuel if the gas is interrupted. No power, no gas. The idea that gas lines froze was from a single article talking about a single gas processing plant. The majority of gas losses was from no power to run compressors. The remaining gas turbine producers requested waivers from the DOE and EPA to exceed their exhaust limits and be heroes. They were told to pound sand and that excess pollution would be fined. Thanks Xiden! 

But yeah, you're blaming fossil fuel. Move to Minneapolis, they need your ilk there running riots. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 4/18/2021 at 7:12 PM, nsdp said:

I have OATI https://www.oati.com/  which is a real time log in for the Canadian, US and NERC portions of CFE, and that tells me two things. First there was only 3650mw of wind on line and 1780 of that was in the South Texas zone and never went off line.   870 mw in scattered wind farms  is not enough power loss to trip any emergency  settings on any circuit at 345kv much less start load shedding.  CPS lost Spruce 2(972mw coal) prior to that due to a frozen coal pile.  Two more coal plants failed and then South Texas #1 went off with a frozen condenser feed pump.  None of the wind trips changed either the grid frequency or the grid inertia so as to exceed relay settings http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html and start the cascade.  The drop in grid frequency to 59.4 hertz for 4+ minutes was a function of one of the WA Parish units tripping  and several NG units.   Second , posters here aren't smart enough to understand either MVARS, inertial moment, or angular rotational mass as components of grid stability. https://www.nerc.oati.com/NERC/sys-login.wml

Second no one uses facts when they contradict their personal bias. At its worst, over 17,000 MW of natural gas was offline in this preliminary data. This occurred in the early morning of February 15th. https://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF03/20210324/111366/HHRG-117-IF03-20210324-SD023.pdf

FYI full of horse feathers. Don't care about your marketing link, irrelevant considering Texas isn't part of it. Then you blowhard about how much power was being produced by wind. But your number is crap. Then you pretend to understand what's going on by finally linking to ERCOT, which at least keeps track of much of Texas (but not El Paso).

Here's the live snapshot at ERCOT. See how the wind number is vastly higher than your number? Why is that? 

[turbguy + 1,543]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

ERCOT started shedding load, which included the power supplies running the compressors the gas producers needed. No power, no gas, no gas, no electricity, no electricity, more shed load, lather, rinse, repeat. See my post just days ago about the EPA forcing the gas companies to not have the option you yourself want to have which is a backup generator running most likely on natural gas with a possible dual fuel option for liquid fuel if the gas is interrupted. No power, no gas. The idea that gas lines froze was from a single article talking about a single gas processing plant. The majority of gas losses was from no power to run compressors.

 

I believe that is a potential root cause.  It is of course more complex than that simple explanation.

I have yet to see any data that actually shows that is what occurred.  All I have seen is anecdotal remarks.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

I believe that is a potential root cause.  It is of course more complex than that simple explanation.

I have yet to see any data that actually shows that is what occurred.  All I have seen is anecdotal remarks.

The fundamental problem is all these whiz bang wonderful devices that keep track of and notify us of things run on electricity. Take that away and they're so many paperweights. I recently had a power outage and the utility's website said they were aware of the problem and anticipated repairs to finish in 8 hours. I hooked up my generator, with the same setup that @Jan van Eck described and put my cell number in the notification queue, since I'm now disconnected from the mains. Hours go by and I keep checking the site, which keeps saying 8 hours to go even though 3 have gone by. Long story short, my neighbors asked me why I was running the generator when the power was back up. Turns out the utility's system wasn't getting or giving updates, because no power. I've now given them advice on how to resolve these issues in future. But we live in modern times and count on modern conveniences. The poor IT guy at the utility putting together the notification system bought off the shelf equipment that all runs on electricity. Until you stress test the system, you don't know where the weak links in the chain are. Once power was restored the routers needed rebooting etc. It all looks good on paper I'm sure. 

It's going to take serious effort in Texas to find those weak links in the chain. It's a big state, lots of moving parts. I also wonder, given the litigious nature of things, whether everyone is interested in saying everything they know, facing Monday morning quarterbacks looking over their shoulders using months to analyze decisions made in seconds in the heat of battle. 

[Ecocharger + 1,473]

On 3/23/2021 at 3:03 PM, Ecocharger said:

Here is a California (YES! California!) research team and some further evidence of climate change related to solar variables. This is the new frontier for climate change research.

Published in November 2020, recent material indeed.

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/8/11/130/htm

Consistent with the work of the Russian scientist cited earlier, this study anticipates an imminent cooling phase, which will settle the argument conclusively against the Anthropogenic hypothesis of global warming, and in favor of natural climate cycles related to solar variables.

Time to call off the panic attack, buy some good mittens and ear-muffs, and break out those new model SUV's with thick rubber tires (over 60% carbon sourced).

This groundbreaking work is actually a further stage of a study from 2017 by the same scientist, showing that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are not related to climate change.

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/4/76

So all this fuss and despair over climate change related to CO2 is unnecessary. 

Perhaps we should worry about negative consequences from reducing atmospheric CO2 beyond a safe level, where agricultural productivity begins to fall off and famines kick in.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Ecocharger

[nsdp + 449]

15 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

FYI full of horse feathers. Don't care about your marketing link, irrelevant considering Texas isn't part of it. Then you blowhard about how much power was being produced by wind. But your number is crap. Then you pretend to understand what's going on by finally linking to ERCOT, which at least keeps track of much of Texas (but not El Paso).

Here's the live snapshot at ERCOT. See how the wind number is vastly higher than your number? Why is that? 

Because you took you screenshot  12:49 AM on April 20th dummy. The problem was at 0100 hrs on Feb. 15th some 64 days BEFORE your screenshot.   You are two months late to the party.