JM

GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Boat said:

What if autonomous EV’s become the cheapest transportation for foods and products. Your rented van will drive itself home and charge itself. In areas or on some roads your battery may charge while driving. Or maybe you hop on a charger for a quick 5 min boost that will get you 200 miles. Location, location, Hollywood might have more options than Afghanistan. Going forward millions of EV.s will be produced per year. By 2030 maybe 15-20 million per year, who knows. But change it will and the infrastructure to charge it. 
My biggest hope is electricity grid demand won’t detour shutting down coal plants. That’s more of a bigger picture item for the lungs of us all.

I almost included something about self driving cars in my response to @Ecocharger but I figured I would stick to solutions that work only with currently available technologies.  I also left out curbside charging, since the worst/most crowded urban areas often don’t even have enough of that sort of parking for it to be a reasonable solution.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

I almost included something about self driving cars in my response to @Ecocharger but I figured I would stick to solutions that work only with currently available technologies.  I also left out curbside charging, since the worst/most crowded urban areas often don’t even have enough of that sort of parking for it to be a reasonable solution.  

With universal EV ownership, any solution requires drastic upgrades of the grid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

If even a skeptic like you thinks that there is room to run to 25% EV penetration before hitting limits of currrent infrastructure then things are looking good. 

Older housing stock will be upgraded in one of 4 ways

by current owners for their own use

prior to sale to enhance the property value

later/last by incentives from government to assist those in poverty to be able to get new automobiles.

Lastly some buildings in generally bad shape, or with ‘special problems’ like aluminum wiring or knob and tube junctions will be torn down and replaced. This is good, it allows obsolete housing stock to be cleared out.


As for the cost of new EVs the current rise in raw materials is a mix of a ‘bump in the road’ due to unexpected demand and a general rise caused by the inflation put inept has caused.  It’s not going to progress upward forever.

Again, this is not about household wiring but community infrastructure, which is a much more costly problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, this is not about household wiring but community infrastructure, which is a much more costly problem.

It's not that big of a deal - in the USA 90+% of grid/community wiring is in the air/overhead, especially in areas of older development which are most in need of improvement.  When the penetration of EV's eventually gets high enough to strain existing grid capacity, it's a relatively simple matter of restringing the lines with thicker wire in a few key places, and upgrading (or doubling up) some of the transformers.  I live in an area where brand new infrastructure of this sort is routinely installed for new residential and commercial buildings.  It's quick and while it's not super cheap in terms of initial capital, these items are VERY long lasting.  

Imagining that it will somehow be some singular major project that requires financing and ruinous expense is a false conception of how electrical infrastructure gets upgraded - it gets done tiny bits at a time as needed, out of the operating budget of the utility system without any disruption at all.  Usually it takes place without the end users of power even being aware that it is taking place.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

With universal EV ownership, any solution requires drastic upgrades of the grid.

Yes - over the course of the next 30 years.  30 years ago, there was no infrastructure for cellular phones at all, and now we are getting 5G service at 'ruinous expense' i.e. out of the general operating budget of the cell phone service companies.  You are somehow creating problems out of thin air, when every single similar infrastructure upgrade of this sort which has taken place in the last 150 years (the original electric grids, plumbing and sewage, cell phone networks) took place with relatively little cost over the course of any particular year.  

  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

It's not that big of a deal - in the USA 90+% of grid/community wiring is in the air/overhead, especially in areas of older development which are most in need of improvement.  When the penetration of EV's eventually gets high enough to strain existing grid capacity, it's a relatively simple matter of restringing the lines with thicker wire in a few key places, and upgrading (or doubling up) some of the transformers.  I live in an area where brand new infrastructure of this sort is routinely installed for new residential and commercial buildings.  It's quick and while it's not super cheap in terms of initial capital, these items are VERY long lasting.  

Imagining that it will somehow be some singular major project that requires financing and ruinous expense is a false conception of how electrical infrastructure gets upgraded - it gets done tiny bits at a time as needed, out of the operating budget of the utility system without any disruption at all.  Usually it takes place without the end users of power even being aware that it is taking place.  

You need to find a source of electricity to transmit.

Also, I do not see any hanging wires on poles around here, everything is buried for neighborhoods less than fifty years old.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

This is pretty cool!

'AirCar': Dual-mode vehicle that can transform from a car into a plane is certified to fly after passing tests in Slovakia

https://news.sky.com/story/aircar-dual-mode-vehicle-that-can-transform-from-a-car-into-a-plane-is-certified-to-fly-after-passing-tests-in-slovakia-12524205

This is where we are now with EVs, just plans which probably will not translate into a common form of transport.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You need to find a source of electricity to transmit.

Also, I do not see any hanging wires on poles around here, everything is buried for neighborhoods less than fifty years old.

Then your area isn’t one of the older areas that is going to have issues with the transition to home EV charging.  Congratulations.

I agree, finding sources of electricity is going to be a much more interesting process.  It’s not 100% clear what the ‘winners’ for electricity generation wil be long term.  Certainly wind and solar are some of them, but there will be others also, and it’s not clear which ones.  Nuclear? (In various possible flavors) Grid scale batteries? Pumped storage? Natural gas?  Each will probably see some level of success.  Will any of them become the ‘go to’ default method of storage & generation that coal was for the 20th century?  I have no idea.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The US press is beginning to grasp the stark reality as to what is coming..This pivot will be a very difficult for many in the industry.

The US Refuses to Fall in Love With Electric Cars

As China and Europe lead the race to make electric vehicles mainstream, America lags behind. This is a problem.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Then your area isn’t one of the older areas that is going to have issues with the transition to home EV charging.  Congratulations.

I agree, finding sources of electricity is going to be a much more interesting process.  It’s not 100% clear what the ‘winners’ for electricity generation wil be long term.  Certainly wind and solar are some of them, but there will be others also, and it’s not clear which ones.  Nuclear? (In various possible flavors) Grid scale batteries? Pumped storage? Natural gas?  Each will probably see some level of success.  Will any of them become the ‘go to’ default method of storage & generation that coal was for the 20th century?  I have no idea.

Nuclear....no thank you. Natural gas and coal will be the go-to sources.

No, we lack capacity for 100% overnight, they have to dig it up and expand capacity for a universal system. And find new sources of electricity, new thermal plants using coal.

Very expensive.

Edited by Ecocharger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Nuclear....no thank you. Natural gas and coal will be the go-to sources.

No, we lack capacity for 100% overnight, they have to dig it up and expand capacity for a universal system. And find new sources of electricity, new thermal plants using coal.

Very expensive.

I was looking in a global aspect. Plenty of places have already chosen nuclear, and are continuing to do so.

Not sure why you would expect coal to make a comeback - ever.  It's the most expensive option out there right now in places where natural gas is available, and trending more expensive in more and more places as the global LNG trade picks up, and the ability to construct solar and wind in more places becomes possible.

  China is trying to cut it down - they have the worlds highest coal production and price.  They haven't succeeded yet, but they probably will within the next 20 years or so.  India and Indonesia will see some modest increases in coal mined for the next 20 years or so, but everywhere else it's on the way out fast and hard.  

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Nuclear....no thank you. Natural gas and coal will be the go-to sources.

No, we lack capacity for 100% overnight, they have to dig it up and expand capacity for a universal system. And find new sources of electricity, new thermal plants using coal.

Very expensive.

coal will be the go-to sources.???? what country are you living in???? North Korea??? new thermal plants using coal.???? you are not dealing with reality..... Coal is dead in North America...... and Europe.....and.......Australia.....and in just about every corner of the globe with China and India working hard to stop all new coal fired plants.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 1/19/2022 at 1:41 AM, Wombat One said:

How about a death tax of 90% on anybody worth more than $10 billion? Perhaps combine it with a $1m bounty? If they didn't begin as criminals, then that is what they all became? Warren Buffett actually thought it was crazy that his secretary paid a higher percentage tax than he did. In economics, this is called a "highly regressive" tax system.

The problem currently are the trust funds, pension plans, etc which DO NOT DIE.  Trusts etc needs sunsets where 100% is taken by the government or must have a total capital of no more than what 10-->100X average workers over their lifetimes make at most.  Might have heard of the Rockefeller trust etc... The dude dies 100 years ago and his inheritors still run said fund completely skewing things as said "high society" as they call themselves(same in Europe) are completely out of touch with reality.  Why we did away with the Nobility in the 19th century.  Today, the "nobility" are the eternal trust fund babies. 

  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I was looking in a global aspect. Plenty of places have already chosen nuclear, and are continuing to do so.

Not sure why you would expect coal to make a comeback - ever.  It's the most expensive option out there right now in places where natural gas is available, and trending more expensive in more and more places as the global LNG trade picks up, and the ability to construct solar and wind in more places becomes possible.

  China is trying to cut it down - they have the worlds highest coal production and price.  They haven't succeeded yet, but they probably will within the next 20 years or so.  India and Indonesia will see some modest increases in coal mined for the next 20 years or so, but everywhere else it's on the way out fast and hard.  

China is opening up vast new coal fields to provide electrical supply going forward, that trend will continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Oil prices will continue to push up caused largely by misguided ESG rules, and the Green guy in the White House will be the one paying the price for it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Inflation-Could-Push-Oil-Supply-Into-The-Danger-Zone.html

"According to a Reuters analysis, the European Central Bank had assumed an average Brent crude price of $77.5 per barrel for this year, falling to $69.4 by 2024 no doubt thanks to the surge in renewable energy capacity and the mass adoption of EVs that will kill millions of barrels in oil demand. This is a good illustration of how precarious forecasting the future, even the near future, actually is, especially if you base your projections on desired rather than realistic outcomes.

Since the start of 2022, despite the surge in Covid infections, crude oil prices have gained 10 percent, confirming OPEC's expectations that the effect of the Omicron virus on oil demand will be short-lived and, as such, insignificant. And they may have further to go even if the geopolitical hotspots cool off, all because of that OPEC spare capacity problem.

The cartel has been undershooting its production targets for months, and that's despite higher prices, which would normally spur everyone into action to pump more. But if even higher prices cannot motivate OPEC members to fulfill their quotas, there must be some bigger problem: the problem of dwindling spare capacity.

The less spare capacity for oil production there is in the world, the bigger the risks for the security of supply as demand growth shows no signs of abating for now. This, in turn, means continued inflationary pressure from the energy segment, interfering with central bank efforts to tame consumer prices."

Edited by Ecocharger
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, notsonice said:

coal will be the go-to sources.???? what country are you living in???? North Korea??? new thermal plants using coal.???? you are not dealing with reality..... Coal is dead in North America...... and Europe.....and.......Australia.....and in just about every corner of the globe with China and India working hard to stop all new coal fired plants.

China and India expanding coal supplies...this trend will continue as natural gas prices ratchet upwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

China is opening up vast new coal fields to provide electrical supply going forward, that trend will continue.

Can you tell me where?  honestly.  I did a short research report about Chinese coal production and electricity generation not that long ago.  there are some new areas I know of being opened up,  but they are replacing depleted mines/areas elsewhere - not increasing supply to my knowledge.  

Edited by Eric Gagen

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

Can you tell me where?  honestly.  I did a short research report about Chinese coal production and electricity generation not that long ago.  there are some new areas I know of being opened up,  but they are replacing depleted mines/areas elsewhere - not increasing supply to my knowledge.  

I gave the links already above, vast new coal fields are planned in China. That will continue as natural gas prices increase.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

The EV revolution has already bumped up against supply constraints, the average American will not be able to afford an EV.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/US-Solar-Boom-Stumbles.html

"U.S. solar industry is dealing with significant cost increases and supply constraints

Some forecasters are beginning to doubt that the U.S. government’s ambitious plans for adding 21.5 GW of utility-scale solar this year could be unrealistic"

Edited by Ecocharger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I gave the links already above, vast new coal fields are planned in China. That will continue as natural gas prices increase.

Do you recall which page or thread this was on? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

China is opening up vast new coal fields to provide electrical supply going forward, that trend will continue.

What happened to your Mongolian coal. Wasn't that vast as well? How much is two vasts…..vast+?.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

So if China adds more nat gas than coal is nat gas addition more vastier? So is China coal vaster than Mongolian coal. Does that make Indian coal vast less but still a version of coal yet to be named later? You foreigners get quite confusing.

Edited by Boat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Do you recall which page or thread this was on? 

China orders coalmines to raise production to address power crunch

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/china-orders-coalmines-to-raise-production-to-address-power-crunch

Extract from the NY Times

China is expanding mines to produce 220 million metric tons a year of extra coal, a nearly 6 percent rise from last year. China already digs up and burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. The effort is infused with patriotism.28 Oct 2021

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-provinces-still-planning-over-100-gw-new-coal-projects-greenpeace-2021-08-25/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Worst Is Yet To Come For UK Households As Energy Prices Soar

By Irina Slav - Jan 18, 2022, 6:00 PM CST

When in December the UK government discussed raising a ceiling on household power utility bills, a warning immediately ensued, stating that such a move would throw millions into energy poverty. Now, the government is mulling over a second ceiling adjustment, and it won’t be downward.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Worst-Is-Yet-To-Come-For-UK-Households-As-Energy-Prices-Soar.html

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.