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Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

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Europe import more coal

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

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There will be shortage of course. Between 11th July and 21 Nordstream 1 will be stopped for maintenance. That was planned. One reason tor building Northstream 2. The flow will be smaller. There still Turkstream till Hungary open and the pipeline across Belarus and Poland.

In my opinion it will be harder in the South, Balkan and the East Bulgaria, Romania. Poland will be hit too if those Pipeline from Norway don't get certified. There won't be flows from Germany to Poland again. for sure.

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I am not sure that I agree.

Lets start with the basics. Russia only have one place to ditch excessive gas; and that is the Europe. Absolutely I agree that Putin might shoot himself in the foot to pretend he has power, but with his deteriotating economy his space for being a bad news bear (pun intended) is shrinking rapidly.

We can look a EU reserves, roughly 15% of total reserves (Same reserves as August 2021) higher than the previous year.

Exports from the US are expanding and are likely to fill some of the gap.

I am not in the slightest interested in news flows on minor disruption, they happened in 2021, they didn't make the news then.

If I could afford the margin (I can't), I would be selling European gas all day long!

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3 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

I am not sure that I agree.

Lets start with the basics. Russia only have one place to ditch excessive gas; and that is the Europe. Absolutely I agree that Putin might shoot himself in the foot to pretend he has power, but with his deteriotating economy his space for being a bad news bear (pun intended) is shrinking rapidly.

We can look a EU reserves, roughly 15% of total reserves (Same reserves as August 2021) higher than the previous year.

Exports from the US are expanding and are likely to fill some of the gap.

I am not in the slightest interested in news flows on minor disruption, they happened in 2021, they didn't make the news then.

If I could afford the margin (I can't), I would be selling European gas all day long!

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

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On 7/1/2022 at 1:24 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

So you are saying the worlds largest importer of LNG, is no longer the worlds largest import of LNG.

How does that change price if world supply is unchanged?

Simple answer is it doesn't!

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16 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

So you are saying the worlds largest importer of LNG, is no longer the worlds largest import of LNG.

How does that change price if world supply is unchanged?

Simple answer is it doesn't!

Additional Russian exports to China are to be via pipeline, not as LNG. This is most likely to undercut the LNG prices locally, as they do now for the EU.

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LNG selling Gas from Russia will still be available after End of 2022. At this moment record high Oil sales go from Russia to Europe. This time the European Industry is buying Oil as Gas replacement and reserves.

Russia is delivering LNG to China too. The distance from Sakhalin to China is close. Both ways Sakhalin - Vladivostok by Pipeline

The third large Gas user is inside Russia for Cars

 

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