WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I do have their number 

Hasan Hafidh
Head, PR & Information Dept.
Tel. +43-1 21112-3302 or
+43-1 21112-3301

but have yet to speak to Hasan

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Saudis-Cap-Oil-Supply.html this article which  says Saudi is capping the supply, is 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Indeed i speak only of where prices can go, not for how long. For traders even if it reaches it for 1 minute its enough.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

But from what i see, oil prices are indeed headed for 59.5 or so, for now. 

[William Edwards + 708]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Indeed i speak only of where prices can go, not for how long. For traders even if it reaches it for 1 minute its enough.

You are right, of course. Further, the investors who throw their money at adding production capacity usually use the spot spike as a data point on their curve showing the way up forever.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well i focus on trend, and then i focus on where that trend goes. Usually if prices will hit a price point, it will take quite a wile for the trend to reverse. So lets look at wti when it was at 75, yes it reversed 10 bucks, but it took 40 days for it to start its new downtrend even though it had started at 75, so this is how it works. It works in mysterious ways, but fun ways, it confuses the heck out of people, but as long as you know how to listen, and change your view quickly, producers should be ok, and not get hurt too much. Problem is they don't listen, and then the market comes in and wacks them for like 100 mill. Like they say, history repeats itself. and the market brings that lesson home daily. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see say i have a valuable employee, someone who has an anger problem. So i can either make him angrier by telling him no no, you can't do that, no you are a bad employee. Or i can find out what bothers him, and give him the loan for his daughters operation. So i could either listen to myself and follow our policies and lose the employee, or, listen to the situation and work with it. In the markets, people listen to their egos, people serve themselves and their dreams, if someone comes in, say the market comes in and don't want to play by their rules, they don't care, just average down, the market will have to listen to me eventually. This is a guaranteed path to failure. Look at kodak, ariba, ericson, nikolai tesla, just to name a few.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see say i have a valuable employee, someone who has an anger problem. So i can either make him angrier by telling him no no, you can't do that, no you are a bad employee. Or i can find out what bothers him, and give him the loan for his daughters operation. So i could either listen to myself and follow our policies and lose the employee, or, listen to the situation and work with it. In the markets, people listen to their egos, people serve themselves and their dreams, if someone comes in, say the market comes in and don't want to play by their rules, they don't care, just average down, the market will have to listen to me eventually. This is a guaranteed path to failure. Look at kodak, ariba, ericson, nikolai tesla, just to name a few.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So in summary, here is why most producers  cant hedge properly, or why the hedge funds don't get it. Understand firstly how they think, (figuratively), they hire top grads who are good in analysis, and analyzing the news, thats all they do, the same that hedgefunds do. Now do you really think all the news that is fit to print is fit. Maybe it is a way a reporter sees it, maybe its a view of a ceo. So now their move is based on a faulty perception. Do you think these people have hasan's, phone number, and if they did, do you think he would give them the time of day. Me he does give the time of day, since whenever we meet i buy him his favorite kabab, all kidding aside. So this is why we have failures and bankrupcies in the oil producing markets. Over investments, at the wrong time, buying fields when oil is at 100, taking out big loans and then giving it all back as oil drops to 40. Misjudging the Iran sanctions, not guessing the gulf war, not guessing maybe potential future wars. And this is how corps lose billions, or make billions less by not perceiving correctly and quickly what is happening. So if someone started an energy co. and they could be in the right trend most of the time, they could quickly get to the top. By energy co, I mean being the middle man, no production, no headaches. Simply doing contracts from producers to refiners.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

repeat

Edited August 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

wti now 64.64, will hit 64, a small support there, and then head down for 62. If that  breaks 59.5 could be in play. I'm playing the targets safe, not going out like $10 in one shot, since as i have stated it moves, but then counter moves, sometime those counter moves extend, before a continuation. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see say i have a valuable employee, someone who has an anger problem. So i can either make him angrier by telling him no no, you can't do that, no you are a bad employee. Or i can find out what bothers him, and give him the loan for his daughters operation. So i could either listen to myself and follow our policies and lose the employee, or, listen to the situation and work with it. In the markets, people listen to their egos, people serve themselves and their dreams, if someone comes in, say the market comes in and don't want to play by their rules, they don't care, just average down, the market will have to listen to me eventually. This is a guaranteed path to failure. Look at kodak, ariba, ericson, nikolai tesla, just to name a few.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I want to show what the top oil hedge trader is saying about oil prices, so far he has won some awards, thats for risk management and performance. So lets see what he thinks. So i found 20 links where he says oil to hit 300. Here is someone else who is pretty good and he says oil will go above 80, this from when prices where 70s. Now they are looking more out in the horizon.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see say i have a valuable employee, someone who has an anger problem. So i can either make him angrier by telling him no no, you can't do that, no you are a bad employee. Or i can find out what bothers him, and give him the loan for his daughters operation. So i could either listen to myself and follow our policies and lose the employee, or, listen to the situation and work with it. In the markets, people listen to their egos, people serve themselves and their dreams, if someone comes in, say the market comes in and don't want to play by their rules, they don't care, just average down, the market will have to listen to me eventually. This is a guaranteed path to failure. Look at kodak, ariba, ericson, nikolai tesla, just to name a few.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so i tracked the dollar, and the wti or oil prices. Right now in Asian, (probably some of you wonder if i ever sleep), the Dollar went down and then the oil prices went up 50 cents. So it seems oil prices is correlated to the movements of the dollar, and as the dollar went down the eur went up like 50 cents too. However, it looks like the dollar small move down will stop here, and then continue up tomorrow, which for now by default make the oil prices go first to about 65.xx and then down below 64.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just looked at the dow and sp, they are both doing a very bad reversal, it actually looks more fake than a dead cat bounce, so well see later if the selloff continues. But for now the 250 point reversal on the dow, looks fake. Dow is now 25,275, from what i see they will bring it up to 25,350 - 60 and then pull the plug, and drain the swamp.

[mikeaaa 0]

Is it still going to 80 after 62 or 59? JJ you have made great calls so far. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok Mike. So right now we are going down. Where to well first 65.xx, then 62 eventually 59.5 maybe 55. I know my target was 62.5 but as we get closer i see more info on the charts and can get more accurate.  Now around the 50s somewhere, the prices should reverse again. This is what I see now, but if even 50 gets broken then I would need to change my long term target. See so its hard to predict the trend and then before it break to predict the trend reversal. But if I don't try who will, wink.

[mikeaaa 0]

Thanks JJ-- can not wait to see how it plays out.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I just checked my profile looking for an earlier post about analysts oil targets, still cant find it, and noticed i had followers, this is the first time i even realized this, I usually dont have time to see what i wrote about myself, which is nothing.

I came to this site when i shorted oil at 74, 75 to learn more about oil, so i signed up to get oil alerts. That is when I realized I could reply to some posts, and then I started posting. Unfortunately as you can see, I don't sleep  much as my mind races, and I watch other things besides oil, so when I see something in oil, unfortunately I am compelled to write what i see to put myself on the spot, this way if i am wrong, I can learn from my mistakes.

I kind of feel embarrassed that i have followers, especially a veteran like tom,, that never was my intention.  Tom Kirkman was the first person  (subject expert), i spoke to when i got here.

I guess now we just need to see if the dow corrects a bit, well by 1500 points. If the S and P corrects a bit,a and if in fact oil hits 62.5, or lower i think somewhere in the fifties, after which point for now I see it reversing back up, towards 80s. But for now lets leave the 80 price alone, I first see 50s, once that hits, it will take some time for it to reverse, and then well see if 80s are in the cards. Ok now i hate to give dates of targets, but I will give it a try this is my best estimate. So I see 50s in August / September, and I see 80s sometimes after the sanctions start in full, or worse if we have a war break out.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I guess now we just need to see if the dow corrects a bit, well by 1500 points. If the S and P corrects a bit,a and if in fact oil hits 62.5, or lower i think somewhere in the fifties, after which point for now I see it reversing back up, towards 80s. But for now lets leave the 80 price alone, I first see 50s, once that hits, it will take some time for it to reverse, and then well see if 80s are in the cards. Ok now i hate to give dates of targets, but I will give it a try this is my best estimate. So I see 50s in August / September, and I see 80s sometimes after the sanctions start in full, or worse if we have a war break out.

Bare your soul.  On the record, as you said.  Respect.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes Dan i do see it hitting those tops twice, its called a double top, but in many cases is a useless pattern, albeit used by many day traders, sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt. but there are much more pertinent factors showing the move should go down, later, so end of week or early next. I never use double top, its a waste of time, but once in a while you get lucky with it.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Yes Dan i do see it hitting those tops twice, its called a double top, but in many cases is a useless pattern, albeit used by many day traders, sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt. but there are much more pertinent factors showing the move should go down, later, so end of week or early next. I never use double top, its a waste of time, but once in a while you get lucky with it.

Good to know.   Thanks.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So sometimes the key is to see if you can find a correlation between an instrument and another makes your life easier. So for now my correlation to oil is the dollar index. As i mentioned it was going down, and now I see it going back up. Which would mean oil goes  back down, after it makes an upward adjustment first maybe to 65 area. From here im looking for the magic 62.50. And then if we break that, oh boy, its the Sputnik 1 era, sorry its the fifties. Sputnik 1, a russian contraption was sent to space in the 50s, though Im not a  witness, this is what i was told. I will try and look at the dow closer to the open of the stock market. But it should go up first by about 70 points and then I see it heading down and trying to break 25,000. You know they say the higher the go the lower they fall, right? So it has to go up first to pull the rubber band all the way back and then woosh.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Here is a link to all patterns or at least most known to man, link I may subscribe to part of it, but i generally use a completely different way. Many of these patters u see here i can show you 10 places these patterns dont work, for every time it works. So i dont pay much attention to it, but indeed this stuff would be the bread and butter of traders, long term and day traders.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader