WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Not really, Pres. Trump knows if prices go down too far, produces especially small ones will go bankrupt. Reducing prices is not up to the govt. unless they floor the market with sprs. He needs to please the consumer, but not at the expense of the corporations. The breakeven for shale more or less is $50. Based on my charts, 50s ranges for now is the lowest they will go, before going back up, towards 80s.

I would disagree with you there.  Producers go bankrupt every day.  Shale seems to be the biggest gamble there is and saying $50 is breakeven goes against most of the information presented so far.  I say he needs votes for the party and $4 dollar/gallon gasoline hurts, so just like when he pressured the Saudis and the Russians, he will do more to get it down even more.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Since so many want to be a day traders, and i watch so many daily. I looked for videos on internet on education. Very few know what they are talking about, many are just marketers for their site, and you can tell, they are new to this, and probably never traded a day in their life. Especially they ones speaking like the used to work for the HSN, home shopping network. But from the good ones they do have some good points, mostly about risk, this is info most traders know, but may not follow. Some teach strategy, but even from the best, they really don't know a lot, but just the basics, which i guess could be a good start. Now some teach stocks, some teach forex, some teach futures, so they come from different experiences. Some teach 1min, and 5min charts, some long term, so its like the wild west out there. So in short the risk management they teach is nothing new, and is part of gambling psych know for eons. The strategy they teach, many I know don't work, and some are simply subjective. I would say if you want to trade, there is a lot to learn, and I can't even tell you, who is good out there.  However, its surprising how many of these have a large following, and talk all over the world, to large groups.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

As regarding 50 being the breakeven i gave a link there, but here are some more. link. Now Trump is a very sensible business man, and would not want the producers to go in the red, this is my view of him. He will win the election anyways, he knows that, so there is no reason to hurt the producers.

[சோழன் + 2]

Maybe 62  coming 2 week posiible supply till 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes the bottom should be at high 50s - 62.5 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So it is not that the break even price of shale production is $50, and therefore I don't think oil can't sink below. The charts simply don't show this as a possibility. This would change of course if we would see lots of weakness once the the $60 gets broken, and prices don't act that they are about to recover. In the 50s range its is possible for the prices to just range. So my view is simple, right now WTI is about 65-66. I see it hitting the 62.5  target and then slowly drifting lower to 50s range, where it will find lots of support.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I don't doubt your $50 prediction, I'm just saying it may go further since oil prices in many cases overshoot predictions after many actions have been started, sometimes many months in advance.  Here is a good article I just read which should help send prices lower:

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20180819/us-says-conserving-oil-is-no-longer-an-economic-imperative

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I said 50s not 50, 50 would be terrible. I think the oil prices will be protected in the 50s, why? My charts say so. Now I read the article, but that means they won't mind if oil goes into a free fall. I will agree to that if the 50s prices don't hold. For now, a free fall is not in the cards. I can only foresee a couple of weeks out, 2 months or so,  not years, and as those weeks come to a close, more data is available and I can determine again, where we are headed. For now as I said, we hit 50s - 62 range, then after a while, (could be weeks), slowly start moving up again. Now if that move up fizzles out, which i can't tell yet, then you could be right.

[mikeaaa 0]

I am interested to see how the market will interpret the new EPA memo about the mileage mandate:

1. Higher demand of oil due to more less-fuel-efficient cars/trucks so that the oil price will go up in the mid-to-long term. 

2. The statement suggests that there are plenty of oil reserves which will make the oil a less valuable resource.

3. The policy will likely slow down the shifting from ICE to electric cars. In my opinion, the transition to EV is the single most important bearish factor for oil prices in the long term. This policy is therefore a plus for oil bulls.

 

[marcin lehmann + 1]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Not really, Pres. Trump knows if prices go down too far, produces especially small ones will go bankrupt. Reducing prices is not up to the govt. unless they floor the market with sprs. He needs to please the consumer, but not at the expense of the corporations. The breakeven for shale more or less is $50. Based on my charts, 50s ranges for now is the lowest they will go, before going back up, towards 80s.

That's true but Putin is not in favor of seeing $50. The Russia budget is calculated with assumption of the oil price as low as $40 although Russia considers $60 as "fair price". 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Breakeven of shale is slowly getting more efficient. One day it may be $30. Countries will go bankrupt if oil prices collapse, below not their breakeven point but also the price they need to run their country, if their main export is oil, like Venezuela, Iran, Russa and others.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Not a person.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

When i look for a course in trading what i look for is, who is the boss, what is their experience. I look for trading experience, maybe the person is well known, maybe wrote some books. Even then all they teach you is strategy, that really is just 1 part of making money, most traders i meet are very smart in other things, they know how to program, how to build things, but when it comes to trading, they lack seriously, even if they show me the most sophisticated (in their mind), chart. I have set next to top day traders who wrote books, and out traded them, they simply where in the wrong direction, and where blind to the fact. So strategy is important, but more than that is discipline. Most traders are like super physicked, no control, full of emotions, don't know probability and are additive traders. Some know that and trade $500 accounts, so even if they mess up, they don't feel bad. I would say if you are smart, disciplined and not crazy, and can control your emotions, I would take you 3 years to day trade, as an average trader. But if you just want to go long for long term, then it would be easier. So like buying a mutual fund, is no big deal, get the right info, look at track record, make sure you are in a growing sector and walla. However most day traders, never really have a good strategy, they average down, they dont understand roulette probabilities, they are addictive gamblers, and have no control, so even after 3 years if they haven't mastered the other parts of trading, most never do, they still won't make it. Like I said i know people with 30 years experience, well disciplined, not crazy, but they simply didn't figure out strategy.

Edited August 19, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Found a link that shows only why oil is down, and also shows a chart explaining why it's down.

As I explained many times, once oil goes down, many reasons can be given why, any will work, and even charts can easily be constructed after the fact. It is always harder to construct a chart that shows future price trends.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Found a link that shows only why oil is down, and also shows a chart explaining why it's down.

As I explained many times, once oil goes down, many reasons can be given why, any will work, and even charts can easily be constructed after the fact. It is always harder to construct a chart that shows future price trends.

That website is good for definitions and brief explanations.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Indeed, that site does teach all kinds of good stuff. Speaking about good stuff,

Been up all night creating some automated trading programs, that will trade a variety of currencies during different time frames, i have back tested them back years, and will only be using the ones that have given me 150% return with about 20% drawdowns. Some are 400% returns. Will test them on my accts for  a month, make sure its profitable and if i get good results, may put the trades on face book. It is just too hard for me to stay up all nite and all day and watch the charts. Possibly could do it for oil too, but for now just to see how it works on the currencies. It looks too good to be true, but that what the test is for. This assumes future volatility will be the average of the last 4 years. So far it picked an auto trade on eur which is up $220. I have yet to set up all the other auto trade systems. Though the c++ programs are done.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So basically created about 7 systems different pairs, with start account of 5k, trading just a small amount, a mini = 1/10 of a position. The net returns i think i used just 2 or 4 years backtest, right now my brain forgot, from 19k profit to about 11k profit. And i'm sure if i spend some more time i can fine tune it even more. So this is past results, but you never know if future results will give the same results. So far another trade kicked off, on a cable short. What is weird is both the eur long is profitable and the cable short. Twilight zone.  For now I don't believe this actually works, but well see end of September or maybe end of August. What is the point of all this, I can easily apply this to oil, and just let it autotrade.

[ATK + 355]

Hey everyone, interesting price action we are seeing (although not surprising). I still see any potential upside for this week being very limited and attribute the current rise to the drop we have seen in the dollar (although it's been holding steady this morning) and due to speculation over trade talks this week. But really it all comes down to EIA's estimates again this week and given that fact that rig count has largely remained the same, I'm expecting production to be somewhat similar to last week. Additionally, it's becoming more clear that China has ramped up its buying from Iran which I expect it to again attribute to crude stock piles.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, ATK said:

Hey everyone, interesting price action we are seeing (although not surprising). I still see any potential upside for this week being very limited and attribute the current rise to the drop we have seen in the dollar (although it's been holding steady this morning) and due to speculation over trade talks this week. But really it all comes down to EIA's estimates again this week and given that fact that rig count has largely remained the same, I'm expecting production to be somewhat similar to last week. Additionally, it's becoming more clear that China has ramped up its buying from Iran which I expect it to again attribute to crude stock piles.

Hello, ATK.  All valid points, and I agree (hope!) that oil is going to drop at least a few dollars by the end of the week.  U.S. stock numbers were also up today to something like 6.8 million barrels, so that old ruse of the market has been put to bed for now.

[ATK + 355]

4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Hello, ATK.  All valid points, and I agree (hope!) that oil is going to drop at least a few dollars by the end of the week.  U.S. stock numbers were also up today to something like 6.8 million barrels, so that old ruse of the market has been put to bed for now.

Are you referring to EIA's report last week or are you saying it rose by another 6.8 million barrels?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, ATK said:

Are you referring to EIA's report last week or are you saying it rose by another 6.8 million barrels?

Could be one and the same.  I've been trying to find the article but have not so far.  Sorry if this added confusion, rather than additional news.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, ATK said:

Are you referring to EIA's report last week or are you saying it rose by another 6.8 million barrels?

I found it and yes it was the EIA report, data that's a week old now.  Sorry.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Sorry no time to look at oil or us. But as mentioned Oil is ranging, until the next move down, maybe later in the week, (at least how I see it), and the dow as mentioned on the way to making new highs. I won't be able to look at those two too much since I need to work on getting the programs working, and may have to rent some servers, since these programs could crash my workstations. Plus i need the servers to be up 24/7.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Sorry no time to look at oil or us. But as mentioned Oil is ranging, until the next move down, maybe later in the week, (at least how I see it), and the dow as mentioned on the way to making new highs. I won't be able to look at those two too much since I need to work on getting the programs working, and may have to rent some servers, since these programs could crash my workstations. Plus i need the servers to be up 24/7.

Got yourself a nice project going there, eh?  Let us know how it goes.

[ATK + 355]

13 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Sorry no time to look at oil or us. But as mentioned Oil is ranging, until the next move down, maybe later in the week, (at least how I see it), and the dow as mentioned on the way to making new highs. I won't be able to look at those two too much since I need to work on getting the programs working, and may have to rent some servers, since these programs could crash my workstations. Plus i need the servers to be up 24/7.

Do keep us posted, but yeah too little has changed from the previous week to think any meaningful impacts will be made this week in terms of decreasing supply. Adding 6.8 million barrels is a big increase meaning there are much larger factors at play here rather than a weekly drop in demand (most likely due to the large amount of importing and lack of demand from China).