WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

question is where to enter? right now its at 64.84 So safest place to enter is you see u want to wait for a retrace since if you enter now u could get killded. now i wont be here when it is a perfect entry and i can predict the exact price. howver what i gave u is the target of 64.17 the entry unfortunately will be your judgement the way i trade i would not short here. good luck. 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Osama + 248]

6 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

question is where to enter? right now its at 64.84 So safest place to enter is you see u want to wait for a retrace since if you enter now u could get killded. now i wont be here when it is a perfect entry and i can predict the exact price. howver what i gave u is the target of 64.17 the entry unfortunately will be your judgement the way i trade i would not short here. good luck.

I see...

I think....as you hint...it will be better to wait for a retrace upwards and then short from there.....and wait till your next target of $57?!

Edited November 1, 2018 by Osama
Spelling

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

no 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

if you shorted at 67 u should have kept your short

[Osama + 248]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

to know when to enter u need to watch the price action, so daily what happens when prices drop is buyers buy and prices spike, so its watching for when those spikes are over, as u know crude can jump 200 points in the other direciton for no reason. so since im not watching it  all the time and im in  now  all the way from the 67s i dont need to watch anymore for a good entry point. Now my entry point since im looking for long trades wont be good for others for are looking for 15 points with 10 points stop, i take longer stops. since i dont have a trading room, i cant monitor wti all day.

$67 was a very (very) good entry point indeed!!

[Osama + 248]

3 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

if you shorted at 67 u should have kept your short

Yes...I am learning...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

daytraders lose by taking small profits and big losers. u have to take big profits and small losers

[Osama + 248]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

if you shorted at 67 u should have kept your short

But the thing is I don't want to miss this fall till $57s.

US and China are expected to discuss a cessation of trade war at G20 summit. Concerns regarding global growth are mounting up---many are expecting another stock market rout....this totally supports your technical analysis of oil dropping further.

[Osama + 248]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

daytraders lose by taking small profits and big losers. u have to take big profits and small losers

Indeed!

I completely agree....

[Osama + 248]

4 minutes ago, Osama said:

But the thing is I don't want to miss this fall till $57s.

US and China are expected to discuss a cessation of trade war at G20 summit. Concerns regarding global growth are mounting up---many are expecting another stock market rout....this totally supports your technical analysis of oil dropping further.

Also, I was reading that the bullish bets have been reduced to a 15 month low. Moreover, concerns are now diverting for oversupply rather than a supply shortage....this is significant in that the November 4th is almost here. The fact that Saudi Arabia has hinted that they will probably extend the Vienna agreement in December also points that there is enough supply out there.

All bearish factors/news.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Osama said:

When WTI was $76 you said it'll touch $67-$64---it did.

Now $57---why not!

So, I might go for this as well.

But the question is --- is this a good point to enter?

@Dan Warnick---what do you think?

The short answer is yes, it is in my opinion a good time to short.  I believe WTI and Brent will both go down @ $5/barrel in the near term, but it of course might see a $1-$2 rise on the way there.  I am also still waiting for the IRANIAN SANCTIONS misinformation campaign to kick back in.  I'm actually surprised it hasn't already, but maybe there will be a push after they kick in.

[Osama + 248]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

I am also still waiting for the IRANIAN SANCTIONS misinformation campaign to kick back in.  I'm actually surprised it hasn't already, but maybe there will be a push after they kick in.

IRANIAN SANCTIONS....Indeed.....but as I mentioned above in a comment....there are many bearish news right now...however, a retrace upwards to $67s but as I don' have technical data to back my claim..I might be wrong

[catch22 + 244]

i would caution selling crude right now... its getting into rather oversold territory and there is also a shift in the broader market with USD looking like its about to turn south after a really strong rally over the last 2 weeks. A weaker USD will be bullish for crude and a broader shift in sentiments seems to be showing in other markets with trend reversals happening across the board. I would not sell it from where it is now, im thinking it will retrace  upwards a bit before any moves to continue further down. Of course i could be wrong, but its never a good move to sell into an oversold market. There is also some considerable prior resistance levels where it is now - it will struggle to break lower if it tries and will probably be met with buyers...

Iran has been very quiet lately - with high oil prices all the producers have been loving life. Now its getting uncomfortably close to the $60 mark - iran is probably only getting $50 for their black market oil, and they will start getting antsy. So will many other oil producers... Once its starts getting too low they will start trying to talk it up again and Iran may start its sabre rattling just to deliberately bring it up as its retaliation for sanctions - I expect we will see some jaw boning by more than just iran once were back below 60 and OPEC will start touting production cuts etc etc...

winds of change are coming...

Edited November 1, 2018 by catch22

[oilexpert.nl + 36]

17 minutes ago, catch22 said:

i would caution selling crude right now... its getting into rather oversold territory and there is also a shift in the broader market with USD looking like its about to turn south after a really strong rally over the last 2 weeks. A weaker USD will be bullish for crude and a broader shift in sentiments seems to be showing in other markets with trend reversals happening across the board. I would not sell it from where it is now, im thinking it will retrace  upwards a bit before any moves to continue further down. Of course i could be wrong, but its never a good move to sell into an oversold market. There is also some considerable prior resistance levels where it is now - it will struggle to break lower if it tries and will probably be met with buyers...

Iran has been very quiet lately - with high oil prices all the producers have been loving life. Now its getting uncomfortably close to the $60 mark - iran is probably only getting $50 for their black market oil, and they will start getting antsy. So will many other oil producers... Once its starts getting too low they will start trying to talk it up again and Iran may start its sabre rattling just to deliberately bring it up as its retaliation for sanctions - I expect we will see some jaw boning by more than just iran once were back below 60 and OPEC will start touting production cuts etc etc...

winds of change are coming...

Iran is facing less volumes to sell at lower prices. Bigger problems for them. Not for the buyers. Opec admitting production cuts will in my opinion bring prices down, as they generally lag behind the market. Saudi politically better in current circumstances to stay friends with Trump and thus keep oil prices "low". Therefore I expect coming weeks slide to continue, difficult to see news pointing to future shortage. I would not be surprised the EU will not be sanctioned for taking Iranian volumes as US knows pain for Iran is more than enough. If Iran plays there street of Hormuz card, they will be ending up selling zero volume, without taking advantage of the higher market prices.....

[Osama + 248]

43 minutes ago, catch22 said:

but its never a good move to sell into an oversold market.

if it is an over sold market...yes ..point taken. 

 

however, I still think that given the trade war and G20 meeting..which will result, most probably, in yet another disappointment might triggr another sell off in the stocks as well as oil. I opined that it will happen in September...however it didn't....the effect came but after a month!

[catch22 + 244]

indeed- the trend is still down for sure - however if you wish to to take a short position i would wait for a bounce up then sell into that. Its just too low (too much risk) to go short right now... i think it could bounce up to $66 which could be a good point to enter short.  When/where the bounce occurs- I think this may play out before the weekend and then next week will likely see resumption of slide lower... But usually when market gets oversold/overbought there will be a correction - magnitude is often bounded by the fibo retracement levels. The magnitude of the retracement often gives an indication of the strength of the larger trend (bearish now). So if we see a really poor retracement before resumption of down trend 38% or less - it can indicate the bearish trend is very strong. If the retracement is significant (greater than 61% fibo) then there is some doubt as to the strength of the current trend and market could be looking for a reversal. Too early to tell - so we wait and let the market tell us

11 minutes ago, Osama said:

if it is an over sold market...yes ..point taken. 

 

however, I still think that given the trade war and G20 meeting..which will result, most probably, in yet another disappointment might triggr another sell off in the stocks as well as oil. I opined that it will happen in September...however it didn't....the effect came but after a month!

It not a good policy to try and predict the outcome of events for which we have no control. In general - i avoid trading when there is news - which is why i have important news feed data pinned to my charts - and the reason is the results are completely unpredictable without a crystal ball Sure get it right and youll make a mint- but also get it wrong and you hit your stops. This brings up another problem when important news events happen - your stops have to be wider as there is always increased volatility preceeding and following the event. Without wide stops you face getting stopped out even when you get the direction correct as there is violent swings before or after the event. So to trade news events, the bottom line is you also have to assume more risk.

[ATK + 355]

Sold my USO 14.0 puts (exp Nov 2)

250 contracts bought when the premium was $0.07 on monday, today''s premium $0.54

54 x 250 = $13,250

Initial investment =$ 1,750

Profit= $11,500 (657% return)

I do a new option trade every single week, some of my best trades have been day trades also! 

 

Everyone post how your trades went! I'm guessing the majority of you probably did amazing this week! I mean there was no way you couldn't with how everything was posted in this forum!

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

9 hours ago, Osama said:

$67 was a very (very) good entry point indeed!!

To bad he said to close a short from 67.4x at 67, I even went back and reposted it

[NatGasDude + 94]

I think that there is a good chance of a reversal back into the gradual uptrend oscillation next week after elections pressure settles down.

The dollar index just reversed its NE direction yesterday at 6pm EST, and if it continues to calm down, this will apply upward pull on WTI/Brent.

It looks like classic election forces as well. In 2016, World crude supply went from 96 to 98.2 mb/d from Q2-Q4 just in time for elections, then it dropped for Q1 down to 96.5. Coincidence?

Demand has been flat this year, from 98.6 Q4 '17, to 98.2Q1 18, to 98.4Q2, supply increased at a higher rate, yet oil prices have been going up.

What happens when the supply rush cools down after elections, and a possible dollar index correction? I wonder. Not so bearish...

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i will probably cover at 61 and call it a trade for now.

[JP9 + 3]

7 hours ago, oilexpert.nl said:

Iran is facing less volumes to sell at lower prices. Bigger problems for them. Not for the buyers. Opec admitting production cuts will in my opinion bring prices down, as they generally lag behind the market. Saudi politically better in current circumstances to stay friends with Trump and thus keep oil prices "low". Therefore I expect coming weeks slide to continue, difficult to see news pointing to future shortage. I would not be surprised the EU will not be sanctioned for taking Iranian volumes as US knows pain for Iran is more than enough. If Iran plays there street of Hormuz card, they will be ending up selling zero volume, without taking advantage of the higher market prices.....

Hello All,

I recently started following this thread and find myself looking at it several times a day so I decided to take part. All of you post some very insightful data from which we can all benefit.

I'm with DR on the idea that OPEC and/or Non Opec will release news on possible production cuts or make Iranian sanctions worse than it is. I can't see them letting WTI/BRENT get much lower from where is at. Trump wanted lower prices for mid terms and OPEC gave it to him so now what's Trump gotta give (hint: allow higher oil). 

Does anyone here trade GUSH,DRIP,UWT, DWT? These are 3X ETFs on oil exploration and Crude oil respectively. 

Once again, thanks for the daily insights.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

57 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

i will probably cover at 61 and call it a trade for now.

Be careful.  Might not get there, or only just.  I don't know if charts can foresee world events.  Hell, I can't either, but forces are lining up I think.  We might see a super hyped up reversal to the upside.

[Bob White 0]

Hi guys.  This is my first post on this forum.  I'm a natural gas trader but have been dabbling into oil to diversify a little.  (and relieve my boredom)

Where do you guys see a bottom in the short term or a reversal?

 

Regards,

Bob

 

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Bob White

[JP9 + 3]

Bob,

I believe next week you will begin to see the reversal and possibly followed by a smaller build or maybe even a draw. The maintenance season for refineries should be coming to a close and their operating capacity should begin to increase. I believe this is the main cause for all the builds as opposed to market believe that there is a surplus or lack in demand. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well if you guys remember i said back in middle of october the reversal would happen about november 12th.