A $2 Trillion Saudi Aramco IPO Keeps Getting Less Realistic

Friday’s news that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince vows a $2 trillion IPO of Saudi Aramco within a few years may provoke a sense of déjà vu. It’s essentially the same headline that flashed around the world in early 2016, when he first raised the idea.  Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reaffirmed plans for the biggest-ever IPO, and talked about much else besides, in a Bloomberg News interview late last week. Might it actually happen in “late 2020, early 2021,” as he now says? Maybe, but we’ve gone through a few deadlines already for the debut of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. It was interesting to read that the prince expects global oil demand to keep rising until 2030 “by above 1 percent, 1 to 1.5 percent, maybe more.” Take the midpoint of that range, and it would imply the world using 120 million barrels a day in 2030.  Indeed, this was the essential subtext to the prince’s original IPO declaration almost three years ago. 

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Digression. Did Saudi Arabia kill journalist Jamal Khashoggi? If not, who? Turkish president says Saudi Arabia must prove its claim that missing Saudi journalist left consulate in Turkey.

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So,the Aramco IPO is back!! :)

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The main question is: will MBS still be in power in 2021 ? Not so sure...

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The official line has always been the IPO is going ahead but delayed....This guy is smarter than he looks:)

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ARAMCO will probably have an IPO more than likely and about the same time frame MBS  mentioned.

They are doing a lot of "housekeeping" before they go ahead with it.

They are also investing a lot of $$$ into petchem which is their next big thing beyond oil.

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There are various 'circles' at play in the Kingdom, some of them never wanted the IPO. I think we should view this not as a done deal for an IPO (in the future) necessarily, but more as MbS' little push and pull with a specific circle of his more level-headed advisors. 

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7 hours ago, franco said:

So,the Aramco IPO is back!! :)

 

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Definitely a bit of a circus here with MbS. I mean, can you imagine being one of his advisors? A lot of the cool heads got sidelined earlier, including some of the more reasonable Aramco voices. Now it's all about who can calm him down without being seen to be calming him down. Not a job I would envy ...

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I don't believe that it will ever happen, that would mean that they would have to willingly give up the information that they have been holding so secret for so many years, and absolute control of the company, right?

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