Could EVs Become Cheaper than ICE Cars by 2023?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Nothing a little squirt of WD-40 wouldn't fix.  Oops, petroleum!  Anyway, in reality these are small issues that will be fixed.  Tesla will do so and move on.

IMHO batteries in cold weather are not a minor problem. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

5 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

IMHO batteries in cold weather are not a minor problem. 

I concur. Not saying that Tesla won't figure it out, but for now, it's one of many deal breakers.

[Janet Alderton + 124]

There are other vehicle fuel sources such as hydrogen that can be produced with renewable energy.

Anyway, electric cars are very common in Norway where cold winters are not unknown. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

46 minutes ago, Janet Alderton said:

There are other vehicle fuel sources such as hydrogen that can be produced with renewable energy.

Anyway, electric cars are very common in Norway where cold winters are not unknown. 

So, do you happen to know how they deal with their cold batteries?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

48 minutes ago, Janet Alderton said:

There are other vehicle fuel sources such as hydrogen that can be produced with renewable energy.

Anyway, electric cars are very common in Norway where cold winters are not unknown. 

At double the price of other fuels and with $50,000 plus autos. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

IMHO batteries in cold weather are not a minor problem. 

Didn't you get the memo?  People that wish to buy a Tesla should have heated garages, powered by solar and Tesla storage batteries.  They should also have at least one on-site maintenance person to monitor systems overnight when extreme Fall to Spring weather may be present.  Of course, these trivial issues should have already be standard for most Tesla buyers.

Okay, I'm being facetious, but you are right.  Batteries and cold weather pose challenges whether we are talking about cars or airplanes or anything else.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, do you happen to know how they deal with their cold batteries?

With "heated garages, powered by solar and Tesla storage batteries."

[DA? + 301]

7 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Large areas of Florida are built on porous rock where a sea wall will not help.

Yup they are stuffed

[DA? + 301]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, do you happen to know how they deal with their cold batteries?

When you start to use it they warm up, no problems.

[DA? + 301]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Okay, I'm being facetious, but you are right.  Batteries and cold weather pose challenges whether we are talking about cars or airplanes or anything else

It's OK physics comes to the rescue and they warm up nicely. Nice try at some FUD though, but you must try harder, I'll give you a D- for that one.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, DA? said:

It's OK physics comes to the rescue and they warm up nicely. Nice try at some FUD though, but you must try harder, I'll give you a D- for that one.

How in the world do you come up with fear, uncertainty and doubt from my statement?  Batteries and cold weather pose challenges.  Why do you persist in taking every little thing as an opportunity to accuse and implicate?  Exhausting and childish.  Even a teenager comes to understand that they are just being irritating and nobody appreciates it.  Are you a teenager?  Thank you, I'm glad you agree!  Really?  I'll counter: I know you are, but what am I?  Jeesh!

[DA? + 301]

Just now, Dan Warnick said:

How in the world do you come up with fear, uncertainty and doubt from my statement?  Batteries and cold weather pose challenges.  Why do you persist in taking every little thing as an opportunity to accuse and implicate?  Exhausting and childish.  Even a teenager comes to understand that they are just being irritating and nobody appreciates it.  Are you a teenager?  Thank you, I'm glad you agree!  Really?  I'll counter: I know you are, but what am I?  Jeesh!

Never got past the mental age of about twelve. Really this is just the type of thing I see on renewables, EV and environmental sites posted by supporters of the fossil world. So thought a bit of pay back was due.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, DA? said:

Never got past the mental age of about twelve. Really this is just the type of thing I see on renewables, EV and environmental sites posted by supporters of the fossil world. So thought a bit of pay back was due.

Make THEM pay.  I don't go and troll those sites.

[DA? + 301]

9 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Make THEM pay.  I don't go and troll those sites.

Plenty of others do, fossil have been playing a dirty game.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 11/18/2018 at 3:30 AM, Dan Warnick said:

There you go again.  Feel better?  Go live for a month in Illinois and give the folks there a chance to show you that they do not fit the story that ANY major newspaper or "News" program in the United States prints or broadcasts.  I would never deem to write off the whole of Canada and the Canadian people the way you have done here, and yet there you go again.

Better make that "Downstate Illinois."   

Just another wry comment from the Dutchman.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, do you happen to know how they deal with their cold batteries?

Ron, cold battery packs are a big problem.  You can seriously damage a cold battery by attempting to do a large current draw. The way to deal with this is to install a hot-water circulator through the battery pack, then fit a diesel-fuelled water heater to that.  Such units are commercially available in the truck and bus industries, by brand names such as WEBASTO and PRO-HEAT.  Of course, you do need a tank of diesel fitted somewhere, and isolation and an insulated exhaust pipe.  Details.   

You want to be careful giving upvotes to DA?  He may not be who he seems.  The claim is he is "Jacob Hawtin."  There is no evidence any such person really exists. 

Getting over to Norway, it is actually much warmer in Norway than in Canada.  The temperature is moderated by the thermal mass of the Gulf Stream, which peters out into the Norwegian Sea.  There is no such warming effect in say Northern Ontario, where -40  is common enough.  You don't face those temps in Norway.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Ron, cold battery packs are a big problem.  You can seriously damage a cold battery by attempting to do a large current draw. The way to deal with this is to install a hot-water circulator through the battery pack, then fit a diesel-fuelled water heater to that.  Such units are commercially available in the truck and bus industries, by brand names such as WEBASTO and PRO-HEAT.  Of course, you do need a tank of diesel fitted somewhere, and isolation and an insulated exhaust pipe.  Details.   

You want to be careful giving upvotes to DA?  He may not be who he seems.  The claim is he is "Jacob Hawtin."  There is no evidence any such person really exists. 

Getting over to Norway, it is actually much warmer in Norway than in Canada.  The temperature is moderated by the thermal mass of the Gulf Stream, which peters out into the Norwegian Sea.  There is no such warming effect in say Northern Ontario, where -40  is common enough.  You don't face those temps in Norway.  

Jan, you are like an encyclopedia of energy issues. I have two garages that I never store vehicles in. We get down to twenty below Fahrenheit. It is not a problem in newer ICE vehicles, but I have used dipstick heaters on older ones. I imagine that most electric vehicles will have to be kept in a heated garage in cold climates. They would also get quite cold quickly when parked outside. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

22 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

There are other vehicle fuel sources such as hydrogen that can be produced with renewable energy.

Anyway, electric cars are very common in Norway where cold winters are not unknown. 

Jan encyclopedia van eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

23 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Jan, you are like an encyclopedia of energy issues. I have two garages that I never store vehicles in. We get down to twenty below Fahrenheit. It is not a problem in newer ICE vehicles, but I have used dipstick heaters on older ones. I imagine that most electric vehicles will have to be kept in a heated garage in cold climates. They would also get quite cold quickly when parked outside. 

When I operated my small 4x4 in MOntreal, which I also used for plowing  (I rebuilt the standard transmission into a 24-speed unit, with 16 forward and 8 reverse gears, so you could match the torque tothe load), I fitted it with a block heater, a battery heater, a battery tray heater, and a dipstick heater.  Then I combined all the heaters into one inlet plug and ran a hefty cord to inside.  That kept the motor operable. 

The battery heater set-up consisted of an electric tray heater fitted underneath the battery, and then a battery blanket heater wrapped around the battery and permanently fixed with long plastic cable wraps.  It allowed for high starting current draws and subsequent high charge rates without damage to the battery.  If you did not do that then you were buying new batteries every year, as the high draws and inrush currents would cause the cell separators to crack, flake and eventually fail.  One thing you never wanted was a failed battery when the weather was so severe that nobody was going to come get you.  Remember, even tow trucks start with batteries. 

You can avoid the battery-start issues by going to an air-start motor.  You will find transit buses fitted with air starters, as they will cause the engine to spin at consistent speeds even if unheated.  And you need that, as the DDEC controls on electronic diesels require a minimum crank speed before the fuel shut-off solenoid lifts, allowing fuel into the pump and injectors.  If you do not get up to minimum crank speed, the motor will crank and crank but because there is no fuel being released by the computer, itself controlled by a crank speed sensor, you will never start the bus or truck up.   Older diesels, before about 1993 with the first Detroit Diesel Penske DD-11.1 and 12.7 series 60 units, would be pure mechanical units, would always pump fuel, and would start in about 1/2 revolution of the crank.  Once the engines went to electronic controls, all that was out the window.

You can cheat and get a big DD to start with a weak battery by loosening the clamp on the rubber inlet hose, prying open the hose from the elbow pipe into the motor, leaving the dashboard key ON, and squirting a shot of ether into the intake while hitting the mechanic crank button in the back. Just be careful not to get your necktie caught in the v-belt drive to the radiator fans or you will get banged up!  Once it is running, then you have to jam that rubber hose back over the elbow and tighten up that clamp, so watch the fingers!  Diesels, ya gotta love 'em. 

Edited November 21, 2018 by Jan van Eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

20 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Jan encyclopedia van eck

It is certainly true that hydrogen can be produced with "renewable energy,"  in that ordinary water with some ions diluted therein can be converted to pure hydrogen (and oxygen at the other electric pole) by hydrolysis.  You do lose some energy doing hydrolysis, but picture the scenario where your panels or windmill is located where it is off the grid, or you deliberately avoid a tie-in, and all the power goes to hydrolysis.  You don't have interconnect problems because there is no interconnect, and if the wind blows harder then you simply end up generating more hydrogen.  So such a set-up is self-regulating. It is probably the best overall use of "renewables," other than hydro-power. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

22 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

When I operated my small 4x4 in MOntreal, which I also used for plowing  (I rebuilt the standard transmission into a 24-speed unit, with 16 forward and 8 reverse gears, so you could match the torque tothe load), I fitted it with a block heater, a battery heater, a battery tray heater, and a dipstick heater.  Then I combined all the heaters into one inlet plug and ran a hefty cord to inside.  That kept the motor operable. 

The battery heater set-up consisted of an electric tray heater fitted underneath the battery, and then a battery blanket heater wrapped around the battery and permanently fixed with long plastic cable wraps.  It allowed for high starting current draws and subsequent high charge rates without damage to the battery.  If you did not do that then you were buying new batteries every year, as the high draws and inrush currents would cause the cell separators to crack, flake and eventually fail.  One thing you never wanted was a failed battery when the weather was so severe that nobody was going to come get you.  Remember, even tow trucks start with batteries. 

You can avoid the battery-start issues by going to an air-start motor.  You will find transit buses fitted with air starters, as they will cause the engine to spin at consistent speeds even if unheated.  And you need that, as the DDEC controls on electronic diesels require a minimum crank speed before the fuel shut-off solenoid lifts, allowing fuel into the pump and injectors.  If you do not get up to minimum crank speed, the motor will crank and crank but because there is no fuel being released by the computer, itself controlled by a crank speed sensor, you will never start the bus or truck up.   Older diesels, before about 1993 with the first Detroit Diesel Penske DD-11.1 and 12.7 series 60 units, would be pure mechanical units, would always pump fuel, and would start in about 1/2 revolution of the crank.  Once the engines went to electronic controls, all that was out the window.

You can cheat and get a big DD to start with a weak battery by loosening the clamp on the rubber inlet hose, prying open the hose from the elbow pipe into the motor, leaving the dashboard key ON, and squirting a shot of ether into the intake while hitting the mechanic crank button in the back. Just be careful not to get your necktie caught in the v-belt drive to the radiator fans or you will get banged up!  Once it is running, then you have to jam that rubber hose back over the elbow and tighten up that clamp, so watch the fingers!  Diesels, ya gotta love 'em. 

JV, you never cease to amaze me. Lots of first hand knowledge too. Not just engineering. I am a big fan of renewables for off grid use or redundancy but not my favorites otherwise. 

I am in favor of redundant energy systems, transport, and localized generation. What do you think of the status of North America's energy grids, especially related to the threat of EMPs?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

JV, you never cease to amaze me. Lots of first hand knowledge too. Not just engineering. I am a big fan of renewables for off grid use or redundancy but not my favorites otherwise. 

I am in favor of redundant energy systems, transport, and localized generation. What do you think of the status of North America's energy grids, especially related to the threat of EMPs?

An EMP would wipe it out.  There is no hardening. 

Fortunately, the possibility of an EMP is very, very low.  Just about zero.  Then again, as Stephen Hawking once said, in speaking of the possibility of Earth getting whacked by an asteroid sixteen miles across  (which would seriously wreck things):

"The probability is very very very low.  But very low does not mean the probability is zero."

And, in all candor, Stephen Hawking is not a fellow you want to go argue with.  He knows more than the rest of the planet combined. Sadly, deceased now.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 11/19/2018 at 9:55 PM, Rodent said:

I concur. Not saying that Tesla won't figure it out, but for now, it's one of many deal breakers.

But remember, the boys that designed and built the Tesla machines all lived in Sunny California.  No worries there!

Edited November 21, 2018 by Jan van Eck

[ronwagn + 6,290]

45 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

An EMP would wipe it out.  There is no hardening. 

Fortunately, the possibility of an EMP is very, very low.  Just about zero.  Then again, as Stephen Hawking once said, in speaking of the possibility of Earth getting whacked by an asteroid sixteen miles across  (which would seriously wreck things):

"The probability is very very very low.  But very low does not mean the probability is zero."

And, in all candor, Stephen Hawking is not a fellow you want to go argue with.  He knows more than the rest of the planet combined. Sadly, deceased now.

I was thinking also of nuclear EMP, not just natural. We are at a solar minimum now. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

I was thinking also of nuclear EMP, not just natural. We are at a solar minimum now. 

Yes, I was referring specifically to a nuclear detonation. I think the probability of that in the USA is very low.

Not zero, but low.  If someone were to do it, your grid would be history.  The more likely event is some rolling blackout caused by grid failure, we have had a number of those,  specifically in the summer with too much power for the cables to handle, cables failing, and then power surging with no place to go, and components destructing.