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Russia removes special military forces from Venezuela . . . . Maduro gone by September ? . . . Oil starts to flow ? Think so . .

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(edited)

 Russia made a point of announcing they are removing the group of military "advisors" they sent to Venezuela a couple of months ago.

Unrelated, U.S. has substantially increased oil imports from Russia in recent months.

. . . . documented reports detail unnamed tankers transferring oil ship to ship in the Caribbean with the newly loaded ship making delivery to U.S. Gulf coast refineries 2000 miles away ? Is that the increased Russian exports to U.S. ?

Unrelated, Russia just denied Iran's request for AS-400 Missile Defense System

Unrelated, US Sec Pompeo met with Russian Foreign Minister 3 weeks ago. Foreign Minister stated, " It's up to the Venezuelan people to bring democracy to Venezuela."  Sounds very accomadating. 

Just my opinion,  This Is The Beginning Of The End For Maduro.

Probably Rosneft and Chevron rebuild the petro infrastructure.  ( stiff the Chinese)

Everyone is happy

PS "Experts" think it will  take a long time to rebuild Vz oil industry.  They're wrong. New technology and engineering will fix sooner then thought.  After conflict in Columbia it took 2 years to rebuild.  Venezuela will happen faster if Guaido works with Rosneft and Chevron to finance . Back to pre-sanction levels quickly then work on increasing  to heyday 4.2 mm bbls/day or better.

Pompeo and Lavrov meeting on May 14th was the latest development of the renewed U.S. / RUSSIA cooperation.  

You will see a lot of public posturing . . . . but it's the behind the scene agreements that will bear fruit.  Russia help with Venezuela and refusal to sell Iran an AS-400 Missile Defense System will just be the start.  The question is how does US reciprocate  ? Crimea ?  First act of good will probably Putin release of the Ukrainian sailors that Pompeo asked him to consider.  Will be interested to see who Trump sits with at G20 dinner ? Putin or Xi Jinping.

ALJAZEERA ARTICLE

14  May 2019

Putin tells Pompeo he wants to 'fully restore' US-Russian ties. US secretary of state met Russian president and foreign minister to discuss Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela and Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would like to "fully restore" relations with the United States and believes that his US counterpart Donald Trump wants to do the same. Putin on Tuesday told US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo he came to that conclusion after a phone call with Trump a few days ago  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .   Earlier, Pompeo met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi in hopes of finding common grounds in strategic issues over Iran, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/pompeo-meets-lavrov-hope-improved-russia-ties-190514135223686.html

 

Edited by Falcon
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And China may be too preoccupied with the trade dispute with the U.S.,  so I'm not anticipating China to swoop in and collect long overdue debts from Venezuela and seize PDVSA infrastructure.

China may have failed in this particular debt trap for Venezuela.  Haircut.

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2 hours ago, Falcon said:

 Russia made a point of announcing they are removing the group of military "advisors" they sent to Venezuela a couple of months ago.   ......End For Maduro.

Probably Rosneft and Chevron rebuild the petro infrastructure.  ( stiff the Chinese)

Everyone is happy

PS "Experts" think it will  take a long time to rebuild Vz oil industry.  They're wrong. New technology and engineering will fix sooner 

Guido is no different than Maduro.  Same policies being pushed; different face.  Maybe he smiles/lies better? 

I'll bet international boys will get all excited, inflow some capital; poof, it will be gone and Ven will be right back where they started.  << Cough Argentina playbook Cough >>

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58 minutes ago, Wastral said:

Maybe he smiles/lies better? 

Oh, well, he's younger and better looking, I suppose, but this also means he's stupider because he's younger. 

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(edited)

9 hours ago, Wastral said:

Guido is no different than Maduro.  Same policies being pushed; different face.  Maybe he smiles/lies better? 

I'll bet international boys will get all excited, inflow some capital; poof, it will be gone and Ven will be right back where they started.  << Cough Argentina playbook Cough >>

Guaido is a socialist  . . . but I wouldn’t say he’s no different.

Maduro turning more Fascist. 

I think Guaido will give more autonomy and control to Chevron and Rosneft .  .  . He will have to if he wants to rebuild oil industry and economy. 

This all could happen before September. Maduro already had his luggage packed and reservations to Cuba before Russia talked him out of it. Russia just looking to secure their loan. That is now done

Edited by Falcon
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4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

And China may be too preoccupied with the trade dispute with the U.S.,  so I'm not anticipating China to swoop in and collect long overdue debts from Venezuela and seize PDVSA infrastructure.

China may have failed in this particular debt trap for Venezuela.  Haircut.

I agree. They're in the fight of their life in regards to the trade war. The current Chinese leadership do not want to make significant changes to it's economic policy. I do wish Robert Lighthizer, the US Trade Representative, would hold weekly meetings articulating the major points and demonstrating the American position publicly. Even the Chinese are using the media. The public only hears the word "tariffs" from the American side and it's starting to sound like a cry wolf event (public disregards as another stunt). 

The Chinese are not well know for their haircuts ;) but in this case you may be correct. (terrible double entendre, I just had to)

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4 hours ago, Falcon said:

Guaido is a socialist  . . . but I wouldn’t say he’s no different.

Maduro turning more Fascist. 

I think Guaido will give more autonomy and control to Chevron and Rosneft .  .  .

Might wish to look up what a Fascist is before using the term.  Both are Socialist, but Fascist still plays make believe that you own private property and can distribute goods how you wish, though in fairness, many socialists claim this is true as well.  Vast majority of socialists also demand complete control over the distribution of goods(price fixing) as well as the production. 

In other words, a Socialist is Fascist, but a Fascist may not be fully Socialist...

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(edited)

On 6/3/2019 at 12:39 PM, Marc Savoie said:

The Chinese are not well know for their haircuts ;) but in this case you may be correct. (terrible double entendre, I just had to)

The Chinese took a hair cut in Canada. They bought a large Tar Sands oil company and were promised a west coast export facility would be built.

They were also fleeced in Libya where they built a railroad and we're guaranteed oil exploration contract.

Don't know how Guaido handles China. My guess is he honors and expands Chevron and Russia's Rosneft agreements and stiffs China.

Edited by Falcon
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(edited)

3 hours ago, Wastral said:

Might wish to look up what a Fascist is before using the term.  Both are Socialist, but Fascist still plays make believe that you own private property and can distribute goods how you wish, though in fairness, many socialists claim this is true as well.  Vast majority of socialists also demand complete control over the distribution of goods(price fixing) as well as the production. 

In other words, a Socialist is Fascist, but a Fascist may not be fully Socialist...

Chevron owns 39 % of Petroboscan a PDVSA joint venture.

I was out sick with measles the day they taught fascisism in 8th grade history class.

Edited by Falcon
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5 minutes ago, Falcon said:

Chevron owns part 39 % of PDSV. 

🤣

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8 minutes ago, Falcon said:

Chevron owns part 39 % of PDSV. 

Hey, I have a business which sells products to oil guys.  I am small time.  Got a new product for swamp land and bridges into my inventory.  Interested?  Great price!

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8 hours ago, Falcon said:

 PS "Experts" think it will  take a long time to rebuild Vz oil industry.  They're wrong. New technology and engineering will fix sooner then thought.  

Hope you are correct, but I think just acquisition lead times for getting in the right pumps, rebuilding infrastructure, is pretty darn significant. Just think of the lead-times involved with expanding significantly in healthy reservoir.  I think we are years from a healthy Vz industry. I wish I kept the file from Woodgate with size of proven reserves, and size of economically proven reserves. Vz was number 1 for proven reserves, but not even top ten for economically proven because of what it would take to get things right again. 

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(edited)

3 hours ago, John Foote said:

Hope you are correct, but I think just acquisition lead times for getting in the right pumps, rebuilding infrastructure, is pretty darn significant. Just think of the lead-times involved with expanding significantly in healthy reservoir.  I think we are years from a healthy Vz industry. I wish I kept the file from Woodgate with size of proven reserves, and size of economically proven reserves. Vz was number 1 for proven reserves, but not even top ten for economically proven because of what it would take to get things right again. 

Both Rosmeft and Chevron have been working in Venezuela for some time. I have to believe they have a prioritized list of exactly what is needed to bring the operations up to speed.

It's not like operations have been completely stopped for extended periods of time

We can reasonably presume getting production up to pre-sanctions volume should happen quickly.

 

Edited by Falcon
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8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

And China may be too preoccupied with the trade dispute with the U.S.,  so I'm not anticipating China to swoop in and collect long overdue debts from Venezuela and seize PDVSA infrastructure.

China may have failed in this particular debt trap for Venezuela.  Haircut.

It seems to me that Russia has a lot more to gain by playing with the West than relying too much on an alliance with China. China could harm Russia in many ways. Imagine if they stopped buying their natural gas and oil.  

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(edited)

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

It seems to me that Russia has a lot more to gain by playing with the West than relying too much on an alliance with China. China could harm Russia in many ways. Imagine if they stopped buying their natural gas and oil.  

China would love to swallow Eastern Russia.  So would Japan and Korea for that matter.  All have at one time or another held territory there. EDIT: I suppose we have to include land locked Mongolia but.....🤔

Edited by Wastral
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2 minutes ago, Wastral said:

China would love to swallow Eastern Russia.  So would Japan and Korea for that matter.  All have at one time or another held territory there. EDIT: I suppose we have to include land locked Mongolia but.....🤔

The Chinese army could easily take over the area north of them but Russia could easily incinerate China. It is a MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction scenario. 

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I just hope Trump didn't sell out Ukraine in any way to get this Deal done.

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(edited)

Latest : Russia upset  with Trump. Trump referenced Russia advisors leaving Venezuela.  This was an "off the record" arrangement that needed  to play out over a few months.  There is good reason,  Russia can't be viewed as abandoning Venezuela.  The story has been confirmed by reliable sources.  When originally questioned about the Wall Street Journal version Russia stated no comment.  After Trump let the cat out of the bag the Russians were forced to deny.  Plausible deniability.  Think it all works out in the end.  Might take a little bit longer now. 

This is not the first time Trump has betrayed a confidence.  One more faux pas. 

Edited by Falcon
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1 hour ago, Falcon said:

Latest :  Russians upset Trump referenced Russia advisors leaving Venezuela.  This was an "off the record" arrangement that needed play out over months.  There is good reason,  Russia cant be viewed as abandoning Venezuela.  The story has been confirmed by reliable sources.  When originally questioned about the Wall Street Journal version Russia stated no comment.  After Trump let the cat out of the bag the Russians were forced to deny.  Plausible deniability.  Think it all works out in the end.  Might take a little bit longer now. 

This is not the first time Trump has portrayed a confidence.  One more faux pas. 

Lots of faux pas but they usually end up working out well for President Trump. 

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04.06.2019 в 19: 46, Falcon сказал:

Последнее: Россия расстроена Трампом. Трамп ссылался на советников России, покидающих Венесуэлу. Это была" неофициальная " договоренность, которая должна была разыграться в течение нескольких месяцев. Есть веская причина, что Россию нельзя рассматривать как отказ от Венесуэлы. История подтверждена достоверными источниками. При первоначальном опросе по поводу версии Wall Street Journal Россия заявила об отсутствии комментариев. После того, как Трамп выпустил кота из мешка, россияне были вынуждены отрицать. Правдоподобное отрицание. Думаю, в конце концов все получится. Это может занять немного больше времени.

Это не первый раз, когда Трамп предал доверие. Еще одна ошибка.

 У меня на эту тему другое мнение, - Трамп и Путин играют в Венесуэллу: 1.Трампу нужно снижение добычи там чтобы поддержать своих нефтяников, 2. Трампу нужно чтобы заводы ориентированные на тяжёлую нефть (как из Венесуэлы или России) не простаивали, 3. Трампу нужно чтобы цена на бензин на заправках в США не была слишком высокой - трудная задача, а решается 1 приёмом. Трамп объявляет "Мадуро плохой" и объявляет санкции. В Венесуеле падает добыча на ПВДСА, Роснефть развивает (наращивает) добычу и продаёт "российскую" тяжёлую нефть в США. В этом случае Гуайдо просто ширма в этой игре.

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04.06.2019 в 19: 46, Falcon сказал:

Последнее: Россия расстроена Трампом. Трамп ссылался на советников России, покидающих Венесуэлу. Это была" неофициальная " договоренность, которая должна была разыграться в течение нескольких месяцев. Есть веская причина, что Россию нельзя рассматривать как отказ от Венесуэлы. История подтверждена достоверными источниками. При первоначальном опросе по поводу версии Wall Street Journal Россия заявила об отсутствии комментариев. После того, как Трамп выпустил кота из мешка, россияне были вынуждены отрицать. Правдоподобное отрицание. Думаю, в конце концов все получится. Это может занять немного больше времени.

Это не первый раз, когда Трамп предал доверие. Еще одна ошибка.

 

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(edited)

On 6/4/2019 at 7:43 AM, tldpdb1 said:

I just hope Trump didn't sell out Ukraine in any way to get this Deal done.

I dont want to make you sad but thats probably  part of the deal.

Russia will NEVER leave Ukraine alone  so if you really want to make some deal about anything with Russia you must first  resolve this problem.

Its simple  matter of national security and all you need is WW3 if you want Ukraine to join NATO. Joining EU may be  another matter but Ukraine in hostile military alliance is out of discussion and no sane russian leader can allow this to happen if he wants to stay in power. Doesnt matter westernphile or sinophile democratically elected or not. Doesnt matter because its matter of national security.

So the best way for Ukraine is to be neutral because other option is  never ending international  conflict about Ukraine and internal conflict between western and eastern Ukraine. And finally Ukraine divided on Dniepr river because its historical border between East and West.

I think Henry Kissinger is right about that. 

 

 

 

Edited by Tomasz
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The first 200 or 300 thousand barrels per day wil come back online within a couple of months. Getting back to one million barrels per day will be relatively easy, but fixing the lack of human capital and total devastation of facilities and infrastructure will take much longer. If they open up the industry to foreign investment with clear legal and comercial rules and incentives Venezuela could ramp up to 5 million barrels per day by 2025. The question is whether they are smart enough to take corrective action to make it happen or stupid enough to continue on the socialist path?

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3 hours ago, Manfred Kruger said:

The first 200 or 300 thousand barrels per day wil come back online within a couple of months. Getting back to one million barrels per day will be relatively easy, but fixing the lack of human capital and total devastation of facilities and infrastructure will take much longer. If they open up the industry to foreign investment with clear legal and comercial rules and incentives Venezuela could ramp up to 5 million barrels per day by 2025. The question is whether they are smart enough to take corrective action to make it happen or stupid enough to continue on the socialist path?

Agreed. A big part of the problem is the fractious electorate. As previously posted there are probably 30 or 40 pols that think they should replace maduro. 

The support of the military might determine the next successor.

I think we will find out sooner than later.

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On ‎6‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 10:59 AM, Tomasz said:

I dont want to make you sad but thats probably  part of the deal.

Russia will NEVER leave Ukraine alone  so if you really want to make some deal about anything with Russia you must first  resolve this problem.

Its simple  matter of national security and all you need is WW3 if you want Ukraine to join NATO. Joining EU may be  another matter but Ukraine in hostile military alliance is out of discussion and no sane russian leader can allow this to happen if he wants to stay in power. Doesnt matter westernphile or sinophile democratically elected or not. Doesnt matter because its matter of national security.

So the best way for Ukraine is to be neutral because other option is  never ending international  conflict about Ukraine and internal conflict between western and eastern Ukraine. And finally Ukraine divided on Dniepr river because its historical border between East and West.

I think Henry Kissinger is right about that. 

 

 

 

The Geopolitical problem here is Much more a Putin Problem.  Russia's Geographical and Historical Position is Different than Europe's. Ukraine as a part of The EU would check Putin's Westward expansion and is Generaly all that is Truly needed.  Hopefully in time The Russian People will come to there senses and get rid of there Eastern Biases and Rid themselves of the Dictatorial Yoke that has held them Back for a Millennium. The Ukrainian's should have let The Crimea go back to Russia a long time ago.  This Mess could have been avoided.

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