Tom Kirkman

Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House

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As the political and trade games between Trump and Xi (and a side game of North Korea) continue on, thought I would share regular updates from Conservative Tree House, as an alternative to the amusingly off-base Mainstream Media, for your consideration.

While I fully expect that most will not agree with CTH analysis on this political and trade chess game between Trump and Xi, hopefully a few lurkers may realize that there are far better opinions and viewpoints than what is generally presented on MSM such as CNN and Washington Post.  Fox News is mostly crap in my opinion as well, just another form of disinformation - but with a conservative disinformation slant rather than a liberal disinformation slant.

I'll share a link starting in the next comment.  We'll be back after these commercial messages from our sponsors.

 

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Today's update from Conservative Tree House, excerpt below:

Trump and Xi G20 Meeting Saturday – U.S. Position: “No Concessions” – Sad Panda

Sometimes we just read and think; sometimes we just read and laugh. This is the latter.

China continually looks at President Trump and the U.S. trade position through the wrong prism. Those around Chairman Xi genuinely seem to be incapable of understanding a U.S. President who independently represents long-term U.S. larger interests, and simultaneously leverages the U.S. market as a customer in a one-sided transaction.

The disconnect in Beijing analysis of the dynamic is really quite something.

After last weeks strategic magnanimous panda maneuver, Beijing was shocked, shocked, that President Trump continued to maintain “wrong thinking” toward the upcoming discussion with Chairman Xi.

It appears China fully expected some reciprocal trade bargaining based on their implied promise to release North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un from manipulation; but Trump didn’t flinch.  Instead, of acquiescence to magnanimous panda, President Trump sends Chairman Kim a letter filled with “excellent content“. Beijing was snubbed.

So yesterday as a follow-up Beijing indicates a willingness to revisit the prior agreement by putting the face of Vice-Premier Liu He back into their negotiation position:

...

 

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Lurkers, here's a continuing dose of independent, alternative analysis of the Trump / Xi (+ North Korea) trade battle.  This is far different than what is generally presented on Mainstream Media.

While I do not expect lurkers to agree with this continuing analysis, my hope is this general viewpoint may help counterbalance the general "Orange Man Bad" bias presented by MSM, and provoke some thinking.

As usual in this thread, excerpt below, full analysis and commentary in the link:

Secretary Ross Discusses China Issues Ahead of G20 Summit

In the dynamic of President Trump confronting Chairman Xi over Chinese trade and manufacturing practices there are critical members of the U.S. team, each with a role to play.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are the most important members.

Secretary Ross explains the position of the U.S. team as they head to the G20. WATCH:

As we discussed yesterday, Chinese anxiety is off-the-charts.  When China gets into this high-anxiety disposition, they immediately -predictably- drop the Panda mask, and lash-out with Red Dragon antagonisms.  This is happening right now.  ...

 

... As President Trump has moved from negotiation to confrontation, Beijing’s leadership is starting to realize their opponent isn’t their typical weak U.S. government negotiators; nor is it the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who will cut the ‘deal’ for their Wall Street clients and DC lobbyists regardless of Main Street’s best interests.

As a direct consequence, the team around Chairman Xi have a much more difficult time trying to outwit the U.S. delegation.   President Trump has brought “killers” from the U.S. corporate and business community, into the battle – to fight on behalf of America.

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Today's update, role reversal time as Trump outmaneuvers Xi again:

Inflection Point – Questioned on New China Tariffs Trump Takes Nothing Off Table

"... It would appear President Trump is in full confrontation mode, albeit diplomatically, as the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi is going to take place at 10:30pm tonight.  We are likely, heck, almost guaranteed, to see a complete reversal in position between the two leaders as President Trump wears the panda mask to cover the Eagle glare.  This truly is the dance with the dragon.

After several years of background strategy, President Trump now has Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in a tenuous position while the ramifications of the U.S-China trade dispute unfold around him and seemingly begin to collapse the One-Belt/One-Road supply chain Beijing has carefully planned.  Actual manufacturing and investment is now retreating from China as the U.S. President continues to use access to the U.S. market as leverage to retract the tentacles of Chinese economic expansion. ..."

 

"... Beijing never says “meet us halfway”, it’s not even part of their outlook; nor do they have a perspective of negotiation that includes such a disposition.  This is a key signal that Beijing is starting to realize the scale and scope of their tenuous position.

Into this mix we now see the importance of Modi beginning to surface.  If President Trump can get India to commit to an Indo-Pacific alignment that is less favorable to China, then in combination with the ASEAN groundwork already in place, the geopolitical circle will be closed.  Beijing will be isolated.  ..."

 

"... And there you have it.  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the fulcrum for the reset. The ASEAN partners to include Vietnam, South Korea, Phillipines, and Japan are positioned as the economic investment beneficiaries.  India then closes the snare and Panda’s grand one-belt/one-road is trapped.

trump-modi-and-abe.jpg?w=584

The meeting tonight between Chairman Xi and Presideent Trump (10:30pm EDT) will be very interesting.  No doubt Xi see’s his vulnerability… he must remain engaged and cannot be cut-out of the critical discussions.

This dynamic; this understanding by Xi, was visible yesterday in the video of the first group photo assembly.  Watch Chairman Xi approach President Trump, the power dynamic has shifted.  This is all new territory for Xi Jinping:

Watch Chairman Xi:

 
Embedded video
 

Leaders and attendees take part in a photo session at the #G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. 

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On 6/26/2019 at 5:58 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are the most important members.

Tom, you want to be careful not to pimp these guys, they are not exactly America's Finest.  These guys are cynics, and care nothing about their "fellow Americans."  Ding battle with the Chinese is nothing more than an exercise in self-aggrandizement, at the expense of everyone else.  Personally, I conclude that Donald has real problems attracting and keeping quality help in the White House. 

Your analysis that The Donald is a President cut from a different cloth is spot on.  He will continue to surprise on the world stage. Cheers.

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10 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Your analysis that The Donald is a President cut from a different cloth is spot on.  He will continue to surprise on the world stage. Cheers.

Thanks Jan. 

As I have repeatedly said, ad nauseum, my views tend to be far different from mainstream, and I do not expect others to agree with my views.  But hopefully I can provoke some critical thinking.  The Orange Man Bad filter can be difficult to break through.

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Heh heh, and Trump trolled Xi just now:

97a6b880664972c12381360d29b560001783370ebbd561cd4ce7eda6f182943d.png

 

Related earlier meme:

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22 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Heh heh, and Trump trolled Xi just now:

97a6b880664972c12381360d29b560001783370ebbd561cd4ce7eda6f182943d.png

 

Bwahahahahaha, Trump's trolling can be amusing : ) 

(apologies for the Rothschild F bomb, it's in his Tweet, and it is simply too funny of a reaction for me to blur it out)

fd2786a78bb999ff9a48dfeb1dd7b46ea22597a989bb5db653b55fe52850fec0.png

 

P.S. the threat of nuclear war with North Korea is apparently over.  Well done, Trump.

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32 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Thanks Jan.  This morning I am currently in the midst of a WhatsApp exchange with one of my brothers in the U.S. who dislikes Trump (that is a severe understatement) and I directed him to this thread for lurking.

Your brother, as well as millions of others, is in a clouded mental space.  I suggest that that is because The Donald is a very complex person.  Folks think they have a handle on him, yet they do not.  Trump continues to surprise.  One thing for sure: he is cut from a far different cloth.

So far, Trump actually seems to be pulling it off.  Amazing.  I suspect the Clintonites feel deeply chagrined.

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36 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

But hopefully I can provoke some critical thinking. 

You assuredly do that!

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This is from 2 weeks ago.

https://mobile.twitter.com/chefdanken/status/1139641048467042304?s=12

Direct link to video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1139641048467042304

Seems to me the DMZ meeting in North Korea suggested by Trump today is what he was referring to 2 weeks ago.  Preplanned.

Looks like the Korean War is finally going to be defused, along with the nuclear threat from North Korea.

If you have been paying attention here, the nuclear threat from North Korea has long been a strategic chess piece wielded with a vengence by China.

North Korea was a dangerous puppet controlled by China.

It now appears those puppet strings by China are cut, North Korea is edging toward freedom, China loses its North Korea nuclear threat chess piece, and Xi is seriously backed into a losing corner.

I'm looking forward to the photo op of Trump and Kim shaking hands in Korea DMZ and mainstream media losing their minds about it.

 

● China lost.

● North Korea nuclear threat disabled, with no shots fired.

● Xi is looking for the "least losing" options for China.

Will the Mainstream Media report fairly about these remarkable events, or will they double down harder on "Orange Man Bad" rhetoric?

 

Oh, and don't forget that Trump and Putin toasted each other at G20 dinner.  Which will also drive MSM nuts.

trump-putin-toast-600x400.jpg

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

You assuredly do that!

Thanks Jan : )

 

I just saw this new update, worth reading in full as a followup to Trump's tweet and Rothschild's tantrum kneejerk reaction.

Excerpt below, but the whole article is worth reading in full for some background, especially if you are a new lurker here:

Epic Strategery – The “Excellent Content” Plan – President Trump Meeting With Kim Jong-Un

As President Trump begins day-two at the G20 he happens to tweet a public message to Chairman Kim Jong-Un about a quick meet-and-greet at the DMZ.  You know, if you’ve got a few minutes… LOL.

trump-tweet-kim-jong-un-meeting.jpg?w=58

Too darned funny….. Obviously this possibility was the subject of the letter which President Trump recently sent to Chairman Kim which the North Korean leader described as “excellent content“.   Trump had this tweet timed for this moment. As we noted at the time, this was predictable.

By President Trump announcing the possibility of a visit with Kim Jong-un before Xi has a chance to sell his DPRK influence for a better trade outcome, President Trump has essentially removed any value.  Chairman Xi, the hostage taker, has been tricked by the hostage rescuer.

On the hostage dynamic – last week the hostage taker (Chairman Xi), finally positioned the public optics of Chairman Kim as the hostage; and indicated a likelihood Beijing would negotiate terms for release (better trade deal) with President Trump. Therefore the rescuer (Trump) countered with communication with the hostage (Kim), and set up an entirely different geopolitical background.

President Trump has totally out-witted Chairman Xi.

trump-kim-summit-11.jpg?w=584

BACKGROUND – President Trump no longer has to worry about missiles from the military within North Korea that is controlled by Beijing. Kim no longer needs to worry about missiles being fired from his regime. Chairman Xi has taken ownership of all hostile military action from inside the DPRK.

Remember, generally speaking President trump held two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim hostage); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.

President Trump now moves to phase two of the plan.

...

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1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Seems to me the DMZ meeting in North Korea suggested by Trump today is what he was referring to 2 weeks ago.  Preplanned.

There is one tidbit from the election campaign (2016) that sticks in my mind.  At one point Mr. Trump had declared that he would go anywhere and meet with anyone, specifically including US enemies and Mr. Kim Jong Un, to advance American interests, which were broadly defined to include defusing war situations.  When the questioner turned to Mrs. Clinton, asking is she would meet with Mr. Kim, the emphatic answer was:  "Absolutely not!"  Then there was some comment about "demeaning the Presidency" and not granting allure or limelight status to reprehensible figures.  

The upshot of that was that Mrs. Clinton would end up perpetuating a state of frozen war, literally forever, and Mr. Trump was the man who saw past that and found the breakthrough. 

Now, you don't have to "like" Mr. Trump, you can call him a sexist, a boor, a social klutz, a braggart, an egotist, a man who sleeps with hookers, a man who sleeps with women who have less scruples than hookers, whatever names you want to go hurl, but let's remember: he was the guy who pulled it off.  Would Mrs. Clinton?  No chance. Now, what do you want:  success, or a bureaucrat with mendacity and stalemate?  You tell me. 

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32 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

There is one tidbit from the election campaign (2016) that sticks in my mind.  At one point Mr. Trump had declared that he would go anywhere and meet with anyone, specifically including US enemies and Mr. Kim Jong Un, to advance American interests, which were broadly defined to include defusing war situations.  When the questioner turned to Mrs. Clinton, asking is she would meet with Mr. Kim, the emphatic answer was:  "Absolutely not!"  Then there was some comment about "demeaning the Presidency" and not granting allure or limelight status to reprehensible figures.  

The upshot of that was that Mrs. Clinton would end up perpetuating a state of frozen war, literally forever, and Mr. Trump was the man who saw past that and found the breakthrough. 

Now, you don't have to "like" Mr. Trump, you can call him a sexist, a boor, a social klutz, a braggart, an egotist, a man who sleeps with hookers, a man who sleeps with women who have less scruples than hookers, whatever names you want to go hurl, but let's remember: he was the guy who pulled it off.  Would Mrs. Clinton?  No chance. Now, what do you want:  success, or a bureaucrat with mendacity and stalemate?  You tell me. 

 

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(edited)

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Thanks Jan : )

 

I just saw this new update, worth reading in full as a followup to Trump's tweet and Rothschild's tantrum kneejerk reaction.

Excerpt below, but the whole article is worth reading in full for some background, especially if you are a new lurker here:

Epic Strategery – The “Excellent Content” Plan – President Trump Meeting With Kim Jong-Un

As President Trump begins day-two at the G20 he happens to tweet a public message to Chairman Kim Jong-Un about a quick meet-and-greet at the DMZ.  You know, if you’ve got a few minutes… LOL.

trump-tweet-kim-jong-un-meeting.jpg?w=58

Too darned funny….. Obviously this possibility was the subject of the letter which President Trump recently sent to Chairman Kim which the North Korean leader described as “excellent content“.   Trump had this tweet timed for this moment. As we noted at the time, this was predictable.

By President Trump announcing the possibility of a visit with Kim Jong-un before Xi has a chance to sell his DPRK influence for a better trade outcome, President Trump has essentially removed any value.  Chairman Xi, the hostage taker, has been tricked by the hostage rescuer.

On the hostage dynamic – last week the hostage taker (Chairman Xi), finally positioned the public optics of Chairman Kim as the hostage; and indicated a likelihood Beijing would negotiate terms for release (better trade deal) with President Trump. Therefore the rescuer (Trump) countered with communication with the hostage (Kim), and set up an entirely different geopolitical background.

President Trump has totally out-witted Chairman Xi.

trump-kim-summit-11.jpg?w=584

BACKGROUND – President Trump no longer has to worry about missiles from the military within North Korea that is controlled by Beijing. Kim no longer needs to worry about missiles being fired from his regime. Chairman Xi has taken ownership of all hostile military action from inside the DPRK.

Remember, generally speaking President trump held two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim hostage); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.

President Trump now moves to phase two of the plan.

...

Looks like the Korean War is finally going to be defused, along with the nuclear threat from North Korea.

 

Edited by JR EWING
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And now to deal with the American threat!

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Here’s the Transcript from Lengthy G20 Press Conference – Osaka, Japan

The ‘People’s President’ Donald Trump delivered comments and held a lengthy press conference at the conclusion of the G20 summit prior to traveling to South Korea.

There were hundreds of international media in the audience and President Trump answered deliberate and clarifying questions from a variety of foreign and domestic journalists for well over an hour.  The President was comfortable taking all questions, and was in complete command -often humorous- over all content and subject matter.

Here’s the transcript – Warning: It’s a long read (14,000 words)

trump-g20-japan-1.png?w=584

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. It’s been a really great period of time. I’ll be leaving now, as you know, for South Korea. Some of you will be coming with us.

I understand that we may be meeting with Chairman King — Kim. And we’ll find out. We spoke with the people. Kim Jong Un was very receptive. He responded. And so, we’ll see. Because tomorrow we’re going to the DMZ. I said, “While I’m there, I’ll shake his hand.” We get along. There’s been no nuclear tests. There’s been no long-range ballistic tests. Gave us back our hostages, which was great. And a lot of good things are happening over there.

So I let him know we’ll be there, and we’ll see. I mean, I don’t — I can’t tell you exactly, but they did respond very favorably.

... 

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And here we go, Mainstream Media is clueless, as usual.  Will MSM report factually about the progress being made?  I remain sceptical. 

As usual, intro excerpt below from the independent Conservative Tree House, and fuller analysis in the link:

President Trump Tweets Details of U.S. -vs- China Status – Talks Resume, Tariffs Remain, Ag Purchases and Non-NatSec Tech

President Trump has tweeted the high-level status of the negotiation restart.  Essentially the outcome is as we expected.

  • Trade talks resume from former stalled point. [Likely Vice-Premier Liu He is back representing Chairman Xi Jinping – Beijing retreat]
  • Current enhanced tariff’s remain in place. [The tariffs that were raised when talks collapsed will remain raised and in force. – Beijing retreat]
  • China resumes AG purchases. [Likely soy beans will be priority – Beijing retreat]
  • U.S. will allow trade purchases, exports, to Huawei of non-National Security tech. [Ross likely to determine products – Trump modifies position]

trump-tweet-china-tariffs-june-29.jpg?w=

From this summation it would appear President Trump has created an exit ramp for Chairman Xi Jinping that allows him to save face.  However, obviously with retention of the recent tariff increases, the benefits beyond optics all favor President Trump.

trump-xi-g20-osaka-1.jpg?w=584

We are assuming with the high visibility of Vice-Premier Liu He at the G20; and the fact that Liu He was directly engaged with U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during the G20 sideline meetings; means the prior negotiated place of agreement is the starting point for renewed talks.

If the assumption is accurate, this indicates a significant retreat by Beijing.

If Beijing was not going to accept the closed chapters of the prior negotiation; a position they previously rebuked; then there would be no essential starting point between the Chinese and U.S. teams.  We don’t like to make too many assumptions, but common sense would indicate the agreements between all parties, prior to the collapse, is now the agreed starting point.

If accurate (obviously details to be identified later) this would indicate that the hawks in Beijing, those who formerly balked, have now retreated from their antagonistic position toward the agreement negotiated by Liu He.

It is likely they saw the building ramifications and consequences over the past 30+ days.  In essence, after getting a taste of what was coming, Beijing saw a cycle of continual collapse of their position as their future; and they had no option but but to try and stop the downward spiral.

This internal outlook, overlaying their historic zero-sum perspective, would make sense given the latest developments.  Party because with the reality of an increasingly losing position as their new baseline, a cessation of further damage was their best scenario.

● ● ● Summary: Trump forced Beijing to see less-loss as the better loss.

However, as noted in the attitude of President Trump, he retains the larger tariff level despite China’s re-engagement.  Trump has allowed the restart to be the face-saving Xi needed, yet he retains the prior tariff gains.   Team Trump yielded nothing back.

Do not take this dynamic lightly.  China has never negotiated for, let alone accepted, less-loss before.  Understanding this is new ground for them, we can only imagine the anxiety within the internal discussions etc.  Vice-Premier Liu He, cannot turn to the Beijing Hawks and say ‘I told you so’; he can only start again and hope the same outcome does not repeat.  ...

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On pins and needles this weekend, waiting to see if Trump can actually pull this off...

0dd55e4bb0c8350d6f93887d7127835e254664b07dea8bb84ff6d52eee9437d0.png

 

South Korea President just now at the joint press conference with Trump:

"I want President Trump to go down in history as the President who secured peace on the Korean Peninsula." -Moon

 

"President Trump is the MAKER OF PEACE on the Korean Peninsula" -Moon

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=s6a5ao_R5iM

 

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Yeee haaaa !

 

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20190630_152221.jpg

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North Korea

 

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South Korea

 

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