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Creative macro analysis on a range of subjects.

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OILESS

Oil use is overestimated. Our perceived outlook on the importance of oil is completely distorted.  Humans have a hard time looking both into the past, and also into the future.  Unless someone has done extensive research on history of all eras, and had real conclusions on just how the world works, until someone has then used this same historical approach and applied it to the future, how then can one really have a bearing on where they stand in the scale of things.  OIl is a revenue generator, like war.  The speed at which humans can transform, especially today, is unprecedented, even in a sequence of long changing systems- computerization, social media, free thinking, healthy cultural development, are contributing to this impending correction of industries.  Historically speaking, industry was much more dependent. Thankfully populations rarely exceeded industry potential, and when such circumstances arrived- (human biological surplus), the ruling elite would simply go to war.  Still Today, in certain regions of the planet, military is the only option of employment, and this will barely be the food you eat.   Industry development is part of the healing process of our Fu%$ed up degraded systems that create military heroes, who in and of themselves have endured years of physical and psychological abuse.  War in and of its self is the most disgusting part of humanity.  Religion has accentuated the problem.  Judaism, Catholicism, Islam are basically a SEX and VIOLENCE club.  Many people are confused between being religious and being philosophical.  Many philosophers think they are religious, because this is what society has eluded to- in relating to deep and introspective thinking. Believe in yourself before believing in god.  Oil is poisonous.  WE are slowly poisoning ourselves to death.  Climate change is a secondary issue, when compared with air pollution. Rising sea levels is the best thing that could happen to hummanity.  Air pollution is not.  FYI, the rising seas, and the increasing natural disasters are one of the best things that could be happening.  AS many of you know, many cities are built on the ocean, and these cities have been using dykes, canals, and managing water systems for thousands of years.  A rising sea, and coastal region vulnerabilities have been on the minds of humanity for a long time.  And as an economist, it appears to me, we are about to embark on the largest infrastructure projects on the planet.   China is leading the way with whats possible with infrastructure.   However, to become carbon neutral, we will have to completely re imagine our priorities for infrastructure  Furthermore, and you heard it here first,  we are going to line, where necessary, the entire coastlines of the planet. We are going to build automated dike systems along major rivers, and along coastlines, that are literally going to be built along the entire stretches of important coast lines, and around islands. literally automated walls coming out of the ground, with unlimited height, and to such a degree that the automated dike system on the southern eastern coast of the USA, the walls will extend 100s of feet high to withstand hurricane winds.    WE will have automated domes with 10km diameter circling a vulnerable community. as the storm approaches, with incredible infrastructure we will combat the natural disasters.       ......................automated walls that line the important and neccesarry coastlines.   The amount of copper, iron, lithium, zinc, graphite, cobalt, steel, aluminum and every other mineral we are going to need to embark on these projects is incredible.  Im long term bullish on all the minerals. Im bullish on oil, because, like a dying lion, oil will push and push hard.   Electricity will replace oil.  Im bullish electricity. Gold will be a safe haven during so much confusion among currencies and economies.

Danial Gable

Danial Gable

 

Crumbling america

Under certain conditions the economy becomes very wasteful, and this is a recipe for disaster.   The public debt load is unsustainable under the current economic conditions. They are reasonable under real growth, but currently, the US is not under stable conditions.  The largest Us global corps are falling deeply behind the rest of the world. Companies like Lockheed and Boeing are large employers in the arms trade. This is an extremely vulnerable industry. The oil and gas, coal and even natural gas, are going to produce unmanageable expenses  related to pollution.  The health care system has so much potential, but the system seems unsustainable.  Pharmecuetical corporations are loosing, and obviously so! as potent pharms are unsustainable for the consumers.   An economy needs strong social tenets. Capitalism is great, if those in charge are capable.  Capabilities  are dependent on teaching and learning. Although the US likes to admit they are leaders in science and tec, this is not entirely true. These are multinational companies, acquiring the brightest minds from around the world.  Religion tends to relinquish personal power, and therefor diminishes our own personal capabilities.  Charity culture pervades the united states, and as people feel sorry for them selves, they miss out on the great adventure of life.  Unabated science is the best and most realistic avenue for growth.  The united states is along ways away from this reality.   near term, long term Short USD long gold

Danial Gable

Danial Gable

 

Bull Run Not Over?

Oil is on an upward climb. I dont see this bull run easing. In my opinion, This industry only has so much life left in it, as we can all clearly see a carbon free future. With so little time, and still so much money to make, it makes more sense to drive up the price real high. This is beneficial on many levels, as it encourages green tec development, almost real time with each increase in price.  Also, then the billions of dollars produced will and can help catapult society into a green era.  It will produce capital expenditure, but only to a degree, with the forsight of the industry completely ending, develpoment today is much different then 30 years ago. Even the 2014 oil crash is still fresh on the minds of many explorers, on just how vulnerable the indusrty is. The capital expenditures and prospective projects are probably going to be moderate, and with carbon goals, the industry has to be careful or they could loose out big time.   

Danial Gable

Danial Gable

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