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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/15/2019 in Blog Comments

  1. 3 points
    My current WTI portfolio is long and drawn out. I am new to the site and I'm not sure of the interest in options trading from the market makers perspective. If anyone is interested just let me know and I'll post it.
  2. 2 points
    a bachelor's degree in finance and a master's degree in economics are also complete shit for trading ... I laugh when morons from banks and companies require this garbage from workers ... a trader with a system is a gift from God😍
  3. 1 point
  4. 1 point
    Dec 10 2019 WTI Financial Report The Jan WTI contract is currently trading at $58.91. Since I am short the Jan 58 call the value of the contract is maxed a out at $58.00 should today be expiration date which it isn't. The premium I collected gor the Jan 58c was $1.25 so this gets added to the $58.00 netting a Sale Price of $59.25. The Net Purchase Price for the 2 Jan contracts is $50.15. If today was expiration my profit on the Jan Options Strategy would be $59.25 - 50.15 = 9.10 per barrel/contract or $18,200 for the 2 Jan contracts The Feb Options Strategy Profit is $58.00 + 3.00 ( short 58c at $3.00 ) = Net Dale Price of 61.00 - the Net Purchase Price is $49.83 = $11,170 per barrel/contract or $22,340. March Strategy: Short 4 March contracts at $56.75. Currently $58.57 for a loss of $7,280. WTI Trading Profit for the Jan-March contracts: $18,200 + 22,340 - 7,280 = $33,240 Strategy going forward : As US refinery inputs continue to be weak in comparison to 2018 exports take up the slack. US production is at a record high and it will continue to set records led by the shale drillers. Offshore will continue to stagnate. As a result of these dynamics I anticipate WTI to trade $56.00 +/- 3.50 for the foreseeable future. We are at the high end of the range. The Jan options expire in 6 days and I will sell the Jan contracts at that time. Since I anticipate WTI to be 58ish I will short 2 more March contracts at that time. My short prices were 56.00 then 57.50 and perhaps 58.00 on this next opportunity giving me 6 short March contracts at an average of 57.17 with 2 Feb contracts long with 58 calls at 3.00 shorted against them. Building a short position at higher and higher prices. The Feb contract has 2 options between now and its expiration date. 1) It can go higher from here and as a result my Feb contracts get called away at $58.00 but I keep all $3.00 of the Feb 58c netting a Sale Price of $61.00. I would then roll over into 2 more short March contracts giving me a total of 8 short March contracts. 2) It heads down to where my Buy to Close 2 Feb 58 calls at 75 cents executes and I collect $3.00 - .75 = $2.25 which I deduct from the Net Purchase Price of $49.83 or $49.83 - 2.25 = $47.58. At that point I would not have any puts or calls shorted against the position, but I will have orders in for both. This is when I'm at my busiest. The only way this strategy works is to be short options against the contracts. As I am closing one short-option I am looking to establish a short position in the opposite option. Time is very very expensive in WTI. That's why I am ALWAYS a seller of time. I am 0-3 in long-options in WTI. I have never had a losing trade on the short side in 14 months, probably about 30 trades. Not bragging. It's the mechanism of the market. It's like this. No matter how sharp I am I'm going to fail going long WTI options. 100%. I've been out on Bourbon Street getting tipsy putting in trades for the next day and having them execute only to wake up and look at them and think WTF. And the trades work out fine. If you notice I always use 54 puts and 58 calls. I would like to experiment with maybe 53s and 57s but the current strike prices seem to be working just fine so maybe when I get a few more contracts I'll experiment. Like I said. There is no blueprint for me to go by. If the market maker does it I want to mimic it. He has all the numbers. All the months. Once I get 5 months with 2 contracts each I'll start adding one at the end month so my contract distribution from closest month's expiration will go from 2 2 2 2 2 to 2 2 2 2 3 to 2 2 2 3 3 to 2 2 3 3 3 and so on.
  5. 1 point
    I talked to management about the situation and this is what they said in a nutshell. Having experienced traders on Investing.com only has a negative influence on Investing.com ad revenues. That's how investing.com makes money. They make it from novice traders using their sponsors and thus generating revenue for their sponsors who in turn continue to advertise on Investing.com. I do not utilize any of their sponsors. Traders with my experience do not "pay" for systems/advice. It's all a gimmick. If all traders on Investing.com were elite traders Investing.com would go out of business in a matter of months unless it went to a pay site. I go back every few days and see new IDs asking "Up or down" with IDs I've never seen either giving them advice. Massive turnover. Not at all what interests me. It's better to have quality as compared to quantity in everything you do. I added a discussion today in " Latest Duscussions".
  6. 1 point
    Greetings Gary and RRH . Miss you very much Gary and thanks to Red’s effort I found you at last . Something is not right with investing. Com when they have moderators in collusion with ignorant traders. Some kind of hidden agender or just bad management when they believe the ignorant and forgo the truly excellent . It’s their loss .
  7. 1 point
    Dec 6 2019 Today the Jan WTI contract is trading at $59.58. If today was options expiration ( but it's not ) my Jan contracts would get called away from me at $58.00 since I am short Jan 58 calls against them at $1.25. As a result I get to keep the entire $1.25 call premium I received netting a Sale Price of $58.00 + 1.25 or 59.25. The net purchase price for the Jan contracts is 50.15 so the profit on the Jan Options strategy is $59.25 - 50.15 or $9.10/barrel/contract or $18,200 profit on the pair. If today was options expiration and I had closed my Jan contracts I would then short 2 March contracts at the current price of $59.16. This trade would be averaged in to 4 March contracts at $56.75 thus giving me 6 short March contracts at an avg of 57.55. At 6 × ( 59.16-57.55) this would be a current loss of $9,660. When the Feb options expire I will do the same as to roll over 2 more March contracts giving me 8 short March contracts.
  8. 1 point
    Thanks Robinhood. That's a kind gesture, but Investing.com has become overrun by "people" that have no clue to what they are doing and as a result are even more cluelese about what I do. S'ok by me. Not in search of "followers". I was expecting that some traders would take an interest in the WTI options strategy but most were content to just be combative or liars. This site is more conducive to sharing strategy. I go back occasionally to WTI and see fresh faces doing the same one-upmanship. That's why I moved to the OVX board. And then that became polluted. Much better off here. I don't need a crowd. I don't need adulation. What I need is someone to kick my *** in trading so I may learn something new. There is no knowledge on the WTI board that will enable me to further my strategy. It's just nickle and dimers. In the reality of trading that's considered " crumbs". Only 5% of traders make a living on crumbs. It's a never ending cycle for them. If they don't trade their income goes to zero immediately. I am preparing to sail the Caribbean next fall and anticipate being out of range for a week or so at a time. My strategy is very simple and low maintainence. It will allow me the peace of mind to enjoy myself in the company of dolphins instead of combative lying traders.
  9. 1 point
    Yes. For example, I own the Jan contracts at $54.86. On Wednesday as WTI went up my order to "Sell to Open 2 Jan 58 calls at $1.25" executed. WTI was about 57.70 when this order executed. This means I sold someone the right to buy my Jan contracts from me at $58.00. In return I received $1.25 per barrel or $1,250. I sold ( shorted ) Jan 58 calls against both of the contracts I own. These calls expire in 11 days. I recieved a total of $2,500. This is mine to keep. It goes directly into my cash account. I can withdraw this money immediately and go have fun on it. If I do nothing else and WTI is above $58 at the time of expiration I only receive $58,000, but I keep the $1,250 I received so my net Sale Price is $58.00 + 1.25 or 59.25. If WTI is below $58.00 I get to keep the $1.25 AND the Jan contracts. I have three days after options expire to liquidate the contracts. I also have the option to "Buy to Close" the 2 Jan 58 calls. This is my normal strategy. I usually place an order to Buy to Close at ~25% of the premium I received. In this case I have an order to "Buy to Close" 2 Jan 58 calls at 25 cents. Should this order execute I will profit $1.25 - .25 or $1.00 ( $1,000 ) per call. Should this order execute the profit from the call trade gets subtracted from my original purchase price. If this order doesn't execute that means WTI continued up in price and thus I get to keep all $1.25 of the call premium. I don't anticipate this happening but there is that probabilty.
  10. 1 point
    Gary, I am here too. I found you! Btw nobody posted you were gonna be here but I do not blame them... I tried leading a petition to get your account back but my posts keep getting deleted (your "fans" must have reported my posts obviously). If you wanna go elsewhere like stocktwits or slack, just let us know. I have been posting my analysis over there but tired of the swine who mock me and then profit off it.
  11. 1 point
    You won't learn this from anywhere else. Many many years ago I complained to my mom that my education in Finance and Economics seemed to give me enough knowledge to consistently get beaten trading options. She said that "People that can "do" do. People that "can't" teach. In other words the knowledge I wanted to acquire was not going to be taught to me in college. Anybody that had this knowledge would be utilizing it and not teaching it. It was going to be taught to me under fire. It was up to me to figure it out. I figured it out. Took decades. Still tweaking the system. No one to learn from. I have never ever met someone that trades as I do. My main bread and butter is shorting puts and calls against my WTI holdings. To do this I have to own the contract outright. If it's $58.20 a barrel I pay $58,200 to buy one contract. This stops EVERYBODY from doing it. This is by design. The market makers don't want you stepping on their toes so they make it cost prohibitive. The market offers great leverage/margin for "newbies" to trade from the retail side. This is by design. Since 90-95% of new WTI traders wash out within 6 months market makers need a constant new source of traders. This system will change your life. Understanding how lopsided the oil market is in favor of the market makers is imperative. I'm not sure if my system helps a retail trader. It is a knowledge-based system, not a system that benefits a day traders strategy. Are you ready for Lesson #2 ?
  12. 1 point
    I don't have a position in anything now. Unfortunately I'm a newbie and I only trade futures for now. I only understand your strategy partially, sufficient to understand that you make $$$ in a much safer way than me and most others. I knew about your strategy before I ran into you on investing. My intent is to one day do what you do but cannot at the moment due to lack of options understanding. I looked for educational material, institutions where I could learn options but have not found anything yet. I inquired with Online Trading Academy but they did not provide me enough confidence that they could teach me what I want.
  13. 1 point
    Gary, it does not look like it will go into 54s this week.
  14. 1 point
    Dec 4 2019 Calculation of the Feb Options Strategy Profit: Bought 2 Feb contracts at $53.00 Sold to Open 2 Feb 54 puts at $4.22 Bought to Close 2 Feb 54 puts at $1.05 Profit per contract: $4.22-1.05= $3.17 Sold to Open 2 Feb 58 calls at $3.00. Target: 75 cents. Currently $1.82 Feb contract currently $56.89 Purchase Price - Put trade profit= Net Purchase Price. $53.00-3.17= 49.83 Subtract the unrealized profit from the short-58 call of $3.00-1.82 that is still working and the Net Purchase Price becomes $49.83-1.18 or 48.65 The Feb contract is currently at $56.89 so the profit per contract at this time is $56.89-48.65 or $8.24/barrel/contract or $16,480 for both Feb contracts so far.
  15. 1 point
    Evaluation of Feb WTI Option Strategy: Bought to Close my 2 Feb 54 puts on Tuesday Nov 26th at $1.05. These 54 puts were Sold to Open at $4.22 at the time when the Feb contracts were purchased at $53.00. The profit from the short-put trade ( $3.17/ barrel ) reduces the purchase price to $53.00-3.17 or 49.83. I Sold to Open 2 Feb 58 calls at $3.00 which are still active. The Feb 58 calls closed at 1.27 on Friday 29. The target is 75 cents and a Buy to Close order has been placed at 75 cents for the 2 Feb 58 calls. I have also placed a Sell to Open for 2 Feb 54 puts at $3.00. They closed at $2.06 on Friday. The Feb WTI contract will have to be close to $52.50 for this trade to execute. The Feb WTI contract closed at $55.37 on Friday the 29th.
  16. 1 point
    95% of WTI "scalpers" wash out within 6 months of beginning. I would say my strategy of shorting puts and calls against WTI contracts compares favorably. In the 14 months that I've been utilizing this strategy my portfolio has gone from one contract to 8 contracts. Could a trader scalp and produce a higher return on the same number of contracts ? Probably. It's not rocket science. I get asked that question all the time. And those that ask the question are scalpers...and they eventually disappear. What they attempt to do is to outtrade me. Fine by me, but like I said they all disappear. I "know" how to scalp. I am better at it than 90% of them. They don't know options trading so they have no other choice. I have a choice. Traders that do as I do no longer scalp. No need to regress once you experience it in action.
  17. 1 point
    Nov 30 2019 Evaluation of the Jan WTI Options Strategy. Bought to Close my 2 Jan 54 puts on Tuesday Nov 26th at 40 cents. These 54 puts were Sold to Open at $2.86 at the time the 2 Jan contracts were purchased at $54.86. The profit from the short-put trade ( $2.46/barrel ) reduces the purchase price of 54.86 by 2.46 to $52.40. Eventually I Sold to Open 2 Jan 58 calls at $3.00 each. A Buy to Close order on the 2 Jan 58 calls at 75 cents executed Friday Nov 29 2019. The profit from the trade ($2.25/barrel/contract) is deducted from the current purchase price of 52.40 making the new purchase price of $50.15. The current 2 Jan contracts currently have no puts or calls shorted against them. The closing price on Friday for the Jan contract was $55.42. My original purchase price was 54.86. Based on that, my profit on a buy and hold strategy would for my 2 Jan contracts would be 55.42 - 54.86 or $1,120 profit on the 2 Jan contracts. However, utilizing a short-option strategy I was able to lower my net purchase price significantly and thus increase my profit to 55.42 - 50.15 or $10,540...almost 10 times the profit of a buy/hold strategy. So as of now my 2 Jan WTI contracts have zero options shorted against them. I have used the Black-Scholes calculator to calculate the price of the Jan 54 put should WTI get down to my target of 52.50 by Dec 4th as $2.00 and I've placed an order to Sell to Open 2 Jan 54 puts at $2.00. Should this order execute I will place a Buy to Close order at 50 cents thus profiting $1.50 and lowering my net purchase to $50.15 - 1.50 or $48.65. First things first though. Sixteen days until the options expire. A lot will happen between now and then.
  18. 1 point
    Nov 29 2019 Jan WTI closed down $2.67 to 55.42 today. My 4 short March contracts at $56.75 closed at 55.42 turning a $3,800 loss into a $6,120 gain overnight. The 3,000 share- position of DWT closed up 55 cents ( 12.88% ) to $4.82. The trade is currently in loss of $1,440 which is a reduction of more than half in one day. Very pleased. My 11,500 short position in RIG was down 4 cents to 4.98. I expected more to the downside. The current loss on the RIG trade is $2,070. This portion of my portfolio is $2,610 in profit. If all three targets for these financial instruments are achieved the profit will be $39,535. Dividing my current profit by my target profit $2,610÷39,535 = 6.6%. So...my score on this portfolio is a 6.6. Flunking. But it went profitable today. Baby steps.
  19. 1 point
    There are a few traders on Investing.com WTI and OVX boards that are seriously missing my trading posts. I got banned for pointing out the deception and fraud of dozens of posters on the WTI board. The OVX board is the Oil Volatilty Index. All my trades are posted there up until a week ago. Post that Gary LeBlanc is at OilPrice.com. I can't. The wolfpack will appreciate it.
  20. 1 point
    Nov 27 2019 EIA reported their production figures today. US crude production hit a record 12.9 mbd on the fewest rigs since March 31,2017 at 664 rigs. Production has increased from 9.2 mbd in the week ending 3/31/2017 to 12.9 mbd currently on the same number of rigs. So for those that think a lower rig count means lower production that is the data to refute that hypothesis. EIA also reported that refinery run rates at 16.334 mbd. This is a decrease of 1.22 mbd from the same time last year. This decline in US consumption coincides with a 4thQ GDP estimate constantly being revised downward. The current 4thQ estimate is .5%. Despite what you may read the US is heading towards a recession if this trend doesn't reverse. Jan WTI closed today at $57.94. The 2 Jan 58 calls ( Sold to Open at $3.00 ) shorted against my 2 Jan contracts ( bought at $54.86 ) closed at 1.56. Target to Buy to Close on the 2 short Jan 58 calls is 75 cents. Feb WTI closed at 57.88. The 2 Feb 58 calls ( also Sold to Open at $3.00 ) shorted against my 2 Feb contracts ( bought at 53.00 ) closed at 2.38. Target to Buy to Close on the 2 short Feb 58 calls is 75 cents. I currently have no short-put position against either months' contracts. My short 4 March contracts at $56.75 closed at $57.70. Down $3,800 on the trade overall. My 11,500 share short position closed at $5.02. Down $2,530 on the trade overall. My 3,000 share short position of DWT closed at 4.27. Down $3,090 on the trade overall. Losses on all these positions. Lets see what happens by the end of Dec. I will calculate the profit/loss on the Jan and Feb options strategies on the close of Friday Nov 30th.
  21. 1 point
    Nov 26 2019 Bought to Close 2 Jan 54 puts at 40 cents that I had Sold to Open at $2.86. This netted $4,920 in profit and allows me to Sell to Open Jan puts against the position in the future at my discretion. Also Bought to Close 2 Feb 54 puts at $1.05. I had Sold to Open these puts at $4.22. This trade netted me profit of $3.17/contract or $6,340. Other than my WTI contracts I am also short 4 March WTI contracts at 56.75. Target: 52.50. Short 11,500 shares of RIG at $4.80. Target: 3.01. Long 3,000 shares of DWT at 5.30. Target: 5.95. Happy Trading
  22. 1 point
    Nov 26 2019 Today WTI is currently $58.38. Up about 40 cents. My 2 Jan 54 puts which I "Sold to Open" at $2.86 are now trading at 39 cents. The 2 Feb puts which I "Sold to Open" at $4.22 are now trading at 1.00. I will "Buy to Close" both positions. I will do both trades at approximately 10:30 EST. The trading logic behind doing this is I've captured 80-85% of the original premium and by closing these short-put positions it allows me to put the same trade on if an opportunity arises. I am by no means obligated to close these trades out at this point. The 58 short-call position for both months caps my profit on the contracts at $58.00, but remember I collected $3.00 for each call so if the contracts get called away due to being above $58.00 my net sell price will be $58.00 + 3.00 but that's a few weeks away. Good luck trading today. If you are thinking of buying WTI puts or calls I would highly advise against doing that, because you'll be on the opposite side of me and my kind ( traders with 40+ years experience )
  23. 1 point
    Ok. This is my current portfolio in WTI Options Stategy. All these trades and positions can be verified for transparency on Investingdotcom. Search the "OVX" board which is the Oil Volatility Index board that I adopted as my own. Had 2 Oct contracts and 2 Nov contracts where the 2 Oct 54 puts and 2 Oct 58 calls along with the same for the 2 Nov contracts all were Bought to Close and the contracts were sold. When the Oct contracts expired I shorted 2 March contracts at $55.88. The Nov contracts expired a month later and WTI was still in the upper 57s and I sold the 2 Nov at 57.50 and I shorted 2 more March contract at 57.50 giving me 4 short March contracts at 56.69. Since that time a trailing stop kicked in at 56.50 for a miniscule profit and repositioned 4 short March contracts at 56.75. The target for these contracts is 52.50. When I cover them I will then go long 2 March contracts and 2 April contracts. The reason I am skipping Jan and Feb because I am already long 2 each of those with 2 Jan 54 puts Sold to Open at 2.86 and 2 Jan 58 calls Sold to Open at $3.00. I Sold to Open 2 Feb 54 puts at 4.22 and Sold to Open 2 Feb 58 calls at 3.00.
  24. 1 point
    Gary, have you read much Ray Dalio?
  25. 1 point
    This is where you square up and close the longs at daily supply 🤑
  26. 0 points
    So many new bulls asking for tomorrow's price. All will get crushed. Good luck. My target is in the 53 range for WTI.
  27. 0 points
    Dec 9 2019 5:45 a.m. EST Pre-market ( NYSE ) shows RBOB leading the way down at $1.6280 with WTI at 58.62. As EIA has reported builds in RBOB over the last three weeks WTI continued to rally. This week that corrects itself. Anticipating RBOB dropping below $1.60 today and WTI to test $57.50 for support. WTI closed Friday at $59.18. Refinery inputs are down 4% from this time last year yet WTI is 8.5% higher. Just a matter of time until the bubble bursts. Added 3,500 shares short to my RIG position at $5.45 giving me 15,000 shares short at $4.95. RIG closed at 5.63 on Friday. Target: 3.01
  28. 0 points
    I only short options against long positions in futures. When I'm short I can't write ( short ) any options. I am exposed to market risk just like anybody else.
  29. 0 points
    Do you currently have a position in WTI ? My Jan and Feb contracts both have 58 calls written against them. My 4 short March contracts at $56.75 are hedged against any loss up until about $57.75 on the March. All contracts have plenty of time left. I sell time. I'm very patient. My orders are placed. If you're drawing a conclusion of where WTI will be just by looking at the current price you're looking in the wrong place. You have to be in it to win it. If Jan contracts expired today at 58.35 my 2Jan contracts would get called away at $58.00 but I would keep the $1.25 I received today from Selling to Open the 2 Jan 58 calls. My net sell price would be $58.00 + 1.25 or 59.25. The net Purchase Price is 50.15 so my profit is $9.10/barrel/ contract or $18,200. I would have $118,500 in my cash account. I am currently short 4 March contracts at 56.75. The March contract closed today at $57.95. I would short 2 March contracts at this price giving me 6 short March contracts at avg of 57.15. Remember I still have 2 long Feb contracts at $53.00 with 58 calls written against them at $3.00 with a target of 75 cents. Feb contracts are about 58.15. I'm not that tied in to contract prices as I am in my strategy. This is not retail trading. I hold my contracts all the way to expiration. So obviously the price of the contract is not that relevant. Retail traders find it nearly impossible to comprehend that. It's all about the options. If WTI continues up and the Feb contract expires at, lets say for example $60, then my Feb contracts get called away from me at $58 but I keep the $3.00 from the 58 call I received giving me a sell price of $58.00 + 3.00 or $61.00. The net purchase price for the Feb contracts is 48.65. The profit on the trade would be $61.00-48.65= $12.35/barrel/contract or $24,700. I would then short 2 more March contracts giving me a total of 8 short March contracts somewhere in the high $57s for an average. If my target of 52.50 is achieved the profit will be in excess of $40,000.