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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/15/2019 in Blog Entries

  1. 2 points
    I have been a trader since 1980. I started trading options in late 1983. I lost every penny of a $1.6 million portfolio in the crash of October 1987. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I have a undergraduate degree in Finance. I have a Masters degree in Economics. I have completed about half the requirements of a PhD in Financial Economics. I don't advise pursuing a PhD unless you want to be a teacher. It will not make you a better investor/trader. I developed a trading strategy involving shorting calls against GUSH in 2015 that I managed for a trucking firm to alleviate the strains of high fuel prices. Early in 2019 the owner of the trucking company sold the company and devoted his time to managing just the strategy itself. He said that he expects to make more profit in 2020 from writing calls against GUSH and writing puts and calls against his WTI contracts than his 32-truck transportation company ever did...all from his home...in his pajamas.
  2. 1 point
  3. 1 point
    These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 23,839 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through August 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Preliminary data from the state agencies already has August production at a record high (see chart above). After revisions, especially for New Mexico, I expect that August production will be revised upward to about 3.7-3.8 million bo/d. Although the horizontal rig count has fallen by 15% since the start of this year (443 to 377 in the previous week), if current drilling & completion activity and well productivity would stay constant (which they never do), production has the potential to double from current levels over time. This simple projection obviously ignores many possible constraints that could occur on the way. The “well quality” tab does show that improvements in well performance have flattened since 2016. As observed in previous posts on this basin, after normalizing production data for the increases in lateral length (which is easily done in our advanced analytics service), we see no improvement since Q2 2016. Pioneer overtook Concho in the “Top operators” overview in August. However, since the acquisition of Anadarko, Occidental is now the largest operator in the Permian (we still list both entities separately), with well over 300 thousand bo/d of operated production. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. In previous posts we shared the operators with the best performing wells. In the following screenshot, you can find this ranking for the Permian Basin, based on the average cumulative oil produced in the first 2 years on production. Only horizontal oil wells are included that began production since 2012. Operators are only shown if they completed at least 20 wells in the selected time frame. Click on the image to see a high-resolution version, which was taken from ShaleProfile Analytics. Resolute, which was last year acquired by Cimarex, shows the best results, with an average of 250 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years. In the middle of next week, we will have a new post on the Eagle Ford. Production and completion data are subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/337O2cf Follow us on Social Media:Twitter: @ShaleProfile LinkedIn: ShaleProfile Facebook: ShaleProfile