Poland closes all schools and kindergartens for 2 weeks. Children are the most efficient, stealth spreaders of coronavirus.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

6 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Vaccines are a much less dangerous way to get there. This approach of letting the virus spread will kill too many older and sick folks. Perhaps better for the NHS long term costs, but is not socially acceptable. 

You might not be too familiar with the UK, this country is run by people who are total morons and that's being polite!

If 60% of the population get it, it will mean around 390,000 deaths in the next year.

I suppose they've found a convenient way to address the 'aging population' question

[George8944 + 128]

18 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

As long as we pay for everything....

You are correct that China did not want help.  I acknowledged that, but you asked about leadership and a leader extends the offer to assist.  Yes, it may cost money but that is the price of being the greatest nation on earth (or so we were).   It's how you win friends for the long term.  I've been in sales for 30 years and I learned through experience that doing the right thing, is NEVER the wrong action.     

China is supplying aid to Italy.  They ripped-out a page from an old US playbook.  Like most of our actions, this is not generosity, it is a very clever strategic decision.  They are building trust, and developing relationships at very high levels.  What would normally take years, they will be accomplish in months.   When Italian hospitals need new MRI machines or other equipment,  do you think they will favor US based GE Medical or do you think a Chinese company will get more consideration.   China may be paying now, but Italy will pay later.

 

[George8944 + 128]

I did some prepping last night.   I bought a bottle of Everclear.   I don't know if this is available outside the USA,  but I'm sure every country that ferments anything has a locally available similar product.    The bottle I bought is 95% grain alcohol.   It is good as a sanitizer, anaceptic, pain killer and mood modifier!

If the virus passes and I don't need it, I will water it down to 80 proof and make some homemade gin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everclear_(alcohol)

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Schools closed in Switzerland.

Government was initially reluctant to take this step as they considered the increased risk for the grandparents if they  have to take care of the children when the parents are at work.

Asked why they have decided to close nevertheless the schools the health minister explained that they were convinced to do so by some recent reports of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en

Cantons are urged to set up childcare facilities for students who can’t remain at home. Home Affairs minister Alain Berset said care facilities will be made available to avoid "mixing of the generations", which would imply that grandparents are caring for the children while their parents are at work. "Our priority is to protect older people who are at risk from coronavirus".

The government also acknowledged the heavy toll the outbreak was taking on the Swiss economy, and said it was prepared to release up to 10 billion Swiss francs ($10.5 billion, 9.5 billion euros) to help companies and employees to make it through the crisis.

A full eight billion Swiss francs of that amount would be made available to cover costs related to partial unemployment.

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200313/switzerland-closes-schools-and-offers-in-aid-to-businesses-over-virus

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, George8944 said:

You are correct that China did not want help.  I acknowledged that, but you asked about leadership and a leader extends the offer to assist.  Yes, it may cost money but that is the price of being the greatest nation on earth (or so we were).   It's how you win friends for the long term.  I've been in sales for 30 years and I learned through experience that doing the right thing, is NEVER the wrong action.     

China is supplying aid to Italy.  They ripped-out a page from an old US playbook.  Like most of our actions, this is not generosity, it is a very clever strategic decision.  They are building trust, and developing relationships at very high levels.  What would normally take years, they will be accomplish in months.   When Italian hospitals need new MRI machines or other equipment,  do you think they will favor US based GE Medical or do you think a Chinese company will get more consideration.   China may be paying now, but Italy will pay later.

 

I thought China couldn’t even handle the virus in China...now they are supplying test kits, medicines, equipment internationally? Did I miss something?

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I thought China couldn’t even handle the virus in China...now they are supplying test kits, medicines, equipment internationally? Did I miss something?

You probably missed the declining number of actives cases in China. Now there are more actives cases reported  in Italy (14,955 today) than in China. (12,066).

 

[Boat + 1,323]

Taiwan embarrassed all by preparing for any virus. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3?amp

It will be interesting to see if any country did a better job in handling the virus. Time will tell if their methods will continue to be this successful. The world obviously can learn from them.

[Boat + 1,323]

My county in Texas has 3 confirmed cases. An emergency has been declared. No groups over 250 can assemble. Even weddings can’t have over 250 people. The local rodeo was cancelled along with sporting events. Visitation is being limited at old folks homes. All the grocery stores are being emptied as residents stock up for home isolation. People are encouraged to work from home if possible. And the list goes on.

[Hotone + 412]

19 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

...and your point is?

I am surprised by this question.  I thought that the Americans on this forum have decided that the CPC is pure evil and an existential threat to the USA and the rest of the world?

Anyway, if you are in Malaysia, be careful.  It is now starting to spread because of the lack of precautions by certain groups of people

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/13/covid-19-14500-malaysians-attended-sri-petaling-mosque-programme-not-5000

And other social events like big group prayers against the COVID19

Edited March 14, 2020 by Hotone

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

You probably missed the declining number of actives cases in China. Now there are more actives cases reported  in Italy (14,955 today) than in China. (12,066).

 

So they are betting on no new cases and somehow, after a few weeks, now have a large surplus of test kits, masks, gloves, etc...? Sounds a bit suspect to me.

Wouldn’t you want to test all those who have been quarantined? Or are they convinced that after a certain amount of time that nobody can be a carrier?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

56 minutes ago, Boat said:

My county in Texas has 3 confirmed cases. An emergency has been declared. No groups over 250 can assemble. Even weddings can’t have over 250 people. The local rodeo was cancelled along with sporting events. Visitation is being limited at old folks homes. All the grocery stores are being emptied as residents stock up for home isolation. People are encouraged to work from home if possible. And the list goes on.

The knee jerk reaction to media fear mongering is ludicrous. The victim mentality is taking hold.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

57 minutes ago, Hotone said:

I am surprised by this question.  I thought that the Americans on this forum have decided that the CPC is pure evil and an existential threat to the USA and the rest of the world?

Anyway, if you are in Malaysia, be careful.  It is now starting to spread because of the lack of precautions by certain groups of people

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/13/covid-19-14500-malaysians-attended-sri-petaling-mosque-programme-not-5000

And other social events like big group prayers against the COVID19

I think I’ll continue to do what I, and most others in KL, are doing. Masks are optional, life goes on, no mass hysteria, no hoarding...

[Marcin2 + 725]

On 3/12/2020 at 8:40 PM, 0R0 said:

You should take the kids out to the woods or fields for outdoor time. They should not be in contact with other kids in urban environments, or you defeat the purpose of the school closures.

Only one or two other children at best besides mine at this playground so I can control contacts.

[Marcin2 + 725]

12 hours ago, George8944 said:

I did some prepping last night.   I bought a bottle of Everclear.   I don't know if this is available outside the USA,  but I'm sure every country that ferments anything has a locally available similar product.    The bottle I bought is 95% grain alcohol.   It is good as a sanitizer, anaceptic, pain killer and mood modifier!

If the virus passes and I don't need it, I will water it down to 80 proof and make some homemade gin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everclear_(alcohol)

Each alcoholic drink at 70% or over could have a very beneficial antiseptic influence. But below 70% it does not work. Drink just 30-50 grams each evening. It should be very small amount , not to get intoxicated. I generally only drink beer or wine, vodka only at special occasions, so find this barbaric, but somehow it works.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Drinking anti-freeze prevents the corona virus as well. The side effects are pretty rough, but only for a short period of time.

[Marcin2 + 725]

10 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Drinking anti-freeze prevents the corona virus as well. The side effects are pretty rough, but only for a short period of time.

Douglas, 

This is a stereotype that is not true for over 30 years. Yes, in communist times some Poles were drinking anti-freeze as it was cheap and available while vodka was not. But even then it was not as wide spread as is thought cause  people preferred alcohol from illegal private production, often of a really good quality.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

17 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Douglas, 

This is a stereotype that is not true for over 30 years. Yes, in communist times some Poles were drinking anti-freeze as it was cheap and available while vodka was not. But even then it was not as wide spread as is thought cause  people preferred alcohol from illegal private production, often of a really good quality.

I was not stereotyping! Why does each comment need to have some nefarious, hidden meaning? This was simply a ‘tongue-in-cheek’ comment.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

17 hours ago, El Nikko said:

You might not be too familiar with the UK, this country is run by people who are total morons and that's being polite!

If 60% of the population get it, it will mean around 390,000 deaths in the next year.

I suppose they've found a convenient way to address the 'aging population' question

A 60% herd immunity requirement may may well be much higher as there are variables we don't know (and they haven't told us the variables in their model).  They are using the formula (1-x)y<1 where y is the number of infections each infected person passes on, and x is the percentage of people required for herd immunity. With 2.5 people infected by each case, if you solve for x you get 60%.

The problems are:

• Most countries are reporting 3.25 people infected, so solving for x becomes 70%
• It does not take into account that people may not have complete immunity. Anyone who's immunocompromised may relapse or be reinfected.
• It doesn't take into account mutations. China seems to have had two strains and there are signs that Iran may have that as well.

So the government's 60% number could be 70%-90%, and that's just with problems I'm coming up with.  It's entirely possible that Johnson's spreadsheet modellers are right, but they need publish the models and have them peer reviewed to have any scientific standing.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I thought China couldn’t even handle the virus in China...now they are supplying test kits, medicines, equipment internationally? Did I miss something?

We gave China a really hard time about their slowness to respond, but when they did respond it was like nothing we've ever seen before. I'd encourage everyone to listen to the system they created during SARS. It's absolutely incredible.

• When someone thinks they're infected, they don't go to the hospital, they go to an annex. Nobody in the hospital is contaminated.
• Their temperature is checked and they are given a hand-held CT scan that shows two slices of the lungs within 2 minutes.
• If the scan is shown something, they are swabbed immediately. They sit and wait for 3 hours while the onsite lab tests are done. They are not allowed to go home and infect their family.
• Someone comes along, suits them up, and has them do dancing, raising their arms, etc., because their scientists discovered that this helped clear their lungs and keep them healthy.

Now China's shutting down its temporary hospitals - the 2200 beds that it built in 12 days - because the infection rate has gone down so rapidly. They now have technology that we can only dream of and while their tactics may be unsavoury, they worked.

Here's an interview on the processes that China set up.  Sorry about the Maddow link, I promise she doesn't say much https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/how-a-country-serious-about-coronavirus-does-testing-and-quarantine-80595013902

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

14 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I thought China couldn’t even handle the virus in China...now they are supplying test kits, medicines, equipment internationally? Did I miss something?

You probably missed the declining number of actives cases in China. Now there are more actives cases reported  in Italy (14,955 today) than in China. (12,066).

In typical China fashion they delayed for two months, had a tough time producing tests and masks and gloves to prevent spread and went to full out quarantine. Then, having invested heavily in producing test kits and and safety goods, they have a much smaller case load, fewer people to test, and test kits coming out their ears. So they flood the market. 

However, there was an article about false positives and several about false negatives from the tests, at least those from China. 47% false positives on a single run, and about the same number of false negatives. Due to the false negatives, standard practice is to administer up to 4 tests to confirm a negative, thus opening up an 80% chance (or worse) of a false positive if a positive result is obtained within 3 tests. 

Hopefully the Roche automated test reagents will do much better in the big machines.  

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

2 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

A 60% herd immunity requirement may may well be much higher as there are variables we don't know (and they haven't told us the variables in their model).  They are using the formula (1-x)y<1 where y is the number of infections each infected person passes on, and x is the percentage of people required for herd immunity. With 2.5 people infected by each case, if you solve for x you get 60%.

The problems are:

• Most countries are reporting 3.25 people infected, so solving for x becomes 70%
• It does not take into account that people may not have complete immunity. Anyone who's immunocompromised may relapse or be reinfected.
• It doesn't take into account mutations. China seems to have had two strains and there are signs that Iran may have that as well.

So the government's 60% number could be 70%-90%, and that's just with problems I'm coming up with.  It's entirely possible that Johnson's spreadsheet modellers are right, but they need publish the models and have them peer reviewed to have any scientific standing.

The whole herd immunity thing sounds like a load of made up bullcrap to me.

Every year people catch colds and flu because they mutate and this one probably wont be different.

They are stopping mass gatherings like football yet keping schools open...it is totally idiotic and I'm not in the panic camp

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

8 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

The whole herd immunity thing sounds like a load of made up bullcrap to me.

Every year people catch colds and flu because they mutate and this one probably wont be different.

They are stopping mass gatherings like football yet keping schools open...it is totally idiotic and I'm not in the panic camp

The problem is that the US and UK executive have not been doing their jobs, so they are pushing all the responsibility onto their citizens.  Between that and the hiding of information / refusal to test - how did you know if a model is accurate unless you have data to verify it?

The Northern European countries have generally done a better job, but we won't really know the seriousness in each country for another 2-4 weeks.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 minute ago, Geoff Guenther said:

The problem is that the US and UK executive have not been doing their jobs, so they are pushing all the responsibility onto their citizens.  Between that and the hiding of information / refusal to test - how did you know if a model is accurate unless you have data to verify it?

The Northern European countries have generally done a better job, but we won't really know the seriousness in each country for another 2-4 weeks.

I couldn't agree more, they are absolutely not testing people, where I live we know there is a case on the island but they are keeping it secret. One of my friends was told about 2 weeks ago that the hospital on the mainland was preparing for a case so there could have been someone with it in Wales a while ago. I think there are probably 10,000 or even more and that figure came from some NHS doctor who has been following this from the beginning.

[George8944 + 128]

On 3/13/2020 at 1:36 AM, 0R0 said:

Chinese banned CDC from seeing anything nor obtaining samples.

That has no bearing on what I suggested.  The topic is leadersip. We offered and they refused. It's the difference between leading and dictating.  Not everyone one will want the help.

[George8944 + 128]

On 3/13/2020 at 6:29 PM, El Nikko said:

If 60% of the population get it, it will mean around 390,000 deaths in the next year.

This is one of the "benefits" of socialized medicine.  We (citizens) are viewed as a fiscial liability.  The question is not, how do we help all these people, but how can we possibly afford this.   

Multi-provider,  partial pay systems like what we have in the US aren't perfect in cases like this ether.  Many don't seek medical attention early enough due to the cost.