Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 2, 2018 i have been reading this site for clues, from the experts and its just amazing, that noone is able to figure it out, they always get it wrong, and usually get on the right track 3 weeks after the trend starts. what is the point of all their analysis and expert opinions? same with traders who tell me, there is no way i can figure it out, if im not involved in the news of the oil industry. In the, beginning 3 months ago first time i ever looked at wti, that was that is why i came here, and then i realized, that the opinions here from experts, where so way of left field, it was sad, and that explains a lot why day traders will never have a chance, since after all most day traders are fundamentals, now in technicals its hard too i have seen charts or ideas posted by so called expert even by some who say i cant trade, and their ideas are again way off. So i dont blame the analysts or the traders, i dont think it is that they are iymissing parts of their mental faculties, or the analysts dont have the right qualifications ,some of the experts are the top oil traders money wise, and each mistake costs them 100s of millions. but indeed like i said before trading crude it is hard for most, it is not something that you can really figure out, as seen by traders with 20 years experience. so i cant knock them, they do try very hard, and they are honest in their approach, but its a lot harder than staying up on the news, or knowing some chart common chart analysis. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 2, 2018 11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said: So i dont blame the analysts or the traders, i dont think it is that they are missing parts of their mental faculties, or the analysts dont have the right qualifications ,some of the experts are the top oil traders money wise, and each mistake costs them 100s of millions. but indeed like i said before trading crude it is hard for most, it is not something that you can really figure out, as seen by traders with 20 years experience. so i cant knock them, they do try very hard, and they are honest in their approach, but its a lot harder than staying up on the news, or knowing some chart common chart analysis. Yet last Monday you said trading oil was easy? How many superyachts you got parked down the Bahamas JJ? Drive a Porche? If oil trading was easy you would be down there living it up, swimming in money like one of those MTV music videos complete with ganstas and bimbos-not be blowing your horn here. Quit pretending. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 2, 2018 21 hours ago, ATK said: Sold my USO 14.0 puts (exp Nov 2) 250 contracts bought when the premium was $0.07 on monday, today''s premium $0.54 54 x 250 = $13,250 Initial investment =$ 1,750 Profit= $11,500 (657% return) I do a new option trade every single week, some of my best trades have been day trades also! Everyone post how your trades went! I'm guessing the majority of you probably did amazing this week! I mean there was no way you couldn't with how everything was posted in this forum! WOAH!!! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 November 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Osama said: WOAH!!! Very impressive. I pulled $5k out of my non oil trade and thought I was doing good. 12 minutes ago, Osama said: 21 hours ago, ATK said: Sold my USO 14.0 puts (exp Nov 2) 250 contracts bought when the premium was $0.07 on monday, today''s premium $0.54 54 x 250 = $13,250 Initial investment =$ 1,750 Profit= $11,500 (657% return) I do a new option trade every single week, some of my best trades have been day trades also! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 November 2, 2018 Like a herd of cats today: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said: Very impressive. I pulled $5k out of my non oil trade and thought I was doing good. You both are still way (way) ahead of me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 2, 2018 (edited) I had an average month last month, not complaining but i made a few mistakes which i need to work on... Edited November 2, 2018 by catch22 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 3, 2018 Check out my latest for SeekingAlpha. I am expecting some good suggestions amd recommendations: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4217736-next-oil-prices 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 3, 2018 Hi Osama- did you write that article above? Can i make a suggestion? As i see it, when we talk about a barrel of oil and the price of it - we are talking about 2 things. 1. The value of the oil. 2. The value of the US dollar. The market will not accept payment nor pay for something without considering the value of the currency its priced in. Now take a look at the DXY (US Dollar basket) 4H chart over the last month or so; The USD has been steadily rising against all other majors thanks to rising rates, bond yields and a hawkish fed. This will have a profound effect on producers and physical buyers depending on where they in the world which is also compounded by the exchange rate in their local currency to the USD. In australia for example (where i live) our dollar has been falling against the USD (as nearly all currencies are) and with a 10% loss in exchange rate over the last 6 months AND a rising oil price in USD means we copping a double hit. The average retail pump price of petrol and distillate across the country is now $1.65/litre - or circa $6.60AUD / gallon, and in New Zealand - its over $10NZD/gallon! And theres plenty of other countries worse off than we are in this respect. The Chinese yuan has been crashing very hard since the trade war kicked off for example... The rest of the world outside of the USA, will be doing everything they can via buying choices to bring prices down to a fair value which accounts for the stronger USD. There doesnt appear to be any end to the current trending strength of the USD with the fed set to continue on with its rate hiking mandate to keep a lid on inflation within the US. If the DXY index keeps on marching upwards - this adds yet more weight to the bearish argument on oil prices quoted in USD... However i think we will see a narrowing spread between WTI and Brent. The way i see it, WTI producers have to pay their production costs in USD which will be also rising with the USD and selling predominately into USD denominated home markets. So the market pressure to lower the price based on USD will not be as high as their profit margin remains fairly constant regardless of what the USD is doing. Not so for rest of the world producers, so I think Brent will fall further in comparison and we will see a lower spread as their margins increase based on USD appreciation over the longer term. Over time, the big oil traders currency hedges should be gradually unwound and the price spread should narrow a bit. Based on this - i think there could be better selling opportunities on Brent related investments than WTI in the longer term also. 2 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 5, 2018 Well, what are your thoughts about these two articles? Both see another spike. Why the recent tailspin may be shortlived: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/04/investing/stocks-week-ahead-oil-prices-iran/index.html This is from Oilprice and has a better analysis: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Looks-Set-For-A-Rapid-Bounce.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 5, 2018 This is why i dont get too involved in that kind of analysis - theres good arguments both ways for price increase or price decrease. At the end of the day, price action is KING. This is why most of my trades are based on TA and ultimately price action- i put very little weight into fundamental analysis as there are too many variables to stay on top of or what the market thinks is more important at the time. The market has proved time and time again to ignore many fundamentals such as price increases whilst we see huge inventory builds like we saw during the bullish run last month. This week im looking at 2 elephants in the room for price direction rather than try to guess it - mid term election results and FOMC. i think both will have a profound effect on both the USD and oil. It is likely that the fed keeps rates on hold for NOV and leaving an almost certain hike in december- which may see some slight bearish pressure in the USD as its been bid up considerably over last week - opposite true if we get a surprise hike this week. If the dems win back one or more of the houses it will also be bearish for the USD - the opposite true if the republicans maintain a majority. It will also affect the risk sentiment in the market as trump wont be able to persue his controversial agendas so easily if the republicans loose majority. I think the market sees trump as a bit of a wildcard and will probably see risk assets higher should the dems gain the power to moderate his actions. i would not try to predict anything until after these events... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 5, 2018 On 11/4/2018 at 4:46 AM, catch22 said: Hi Osama- did you write that article above? Can i make a suggestion? As i see it, when we talk about a barrel of oil and the price of it - we are talking about 2 things. 1. The value of the oil. 2. The value of the US dollar. The market will not accept payment nor pay for something without considering the value of the currency its priced in. Now take a look at the DXY (US Dollar basket) 4H chart over the last month or so; The USD has been steadily rising against all other majors thanks to rising rates, bond yields and a hawkish fed. This will have a profound effect on producers and physical buyers depending on where they in the world which is also compounded by the exchange rate in their local currency to the USD. In australia for example (where i live) our dollar has been falling against the USD (as nearly all currencies are) and with a 10% loss in exchange rate over the last 6 months AND a rising oil price in USD means we copping a double hit. The average retail pump price of petrol and distillate across the country is now $1.65/litre - or circa $6.60AUD / gallon, and in New Zealand - its over $10NZD/gallon! And theres plenty of other countries worse off than we are in this respect. The Chinese yuan has been crashing very hard since the trade war kicked off for example... The rest of the world outside of the USA, will be doing everything they can via buying choices to bring prices down to a fair value which accounts for the stronger USD. There doesnt appear to be any end to the current trending strength of the USD with the fed set to continue on with its rate hiking mandate to keep a lid on inflation within the US. If the DXY index keeps on marching upwards - this adds yet more weight to the bearish argument on oil prices quoted in USD... However i think we will see a narrowing spread between WTI and Brent. The way i see it, WTI producers have to pay their production costs in USD which will be also rising with the USD and selling predominately into USD denominated home markets. So the market pressure to lower the price based on USD will not be as high as their profit margin remains fairly constant regardless of what the USD is doing. Not so for rest of the world producers, so I think Brent will fall further in comparison and we will see a lower spread as their margins increase based on USD appreciation over the longer term. Over time, the big oil traders currency hedges should be gradually unwound and the price spread should narrow a bit. Based on this - i think there could be better selling opportunities on Brent related investments than WTI in the longer term also. Thank you for such a detailed response. I agree and as I have written that there are many downside for oil prices than upward movement. I, however, have also faced much questions as to why do I see oil falling...almost ALL of the comments say that it will rebound to $80 again. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 5, 2018 So we have a news articel that wti is rising https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Top-Commodity-Traders-Expect-Oil-Prices-To-Drop-In-2019.html. We have gold saying on friday that prices are headed back to 80. Then we have the real top oil trader from vitrol saying next year prices will be at 65, i wonder where he got that number from 2 months after it was 76 and he said prices where going up, due to the iran sancations where now are a big nothing burger. So who do you believe? Now having said that, remember its now the winter countries need oil so they dont become extinct, ofcourse there will be a spike. But if you can time the spike youll be better off, than just swingin for the fences, or following goldman sachs $80 prediction, which indeed could happen, once the bottome is reached. At this point when you have lots of conflicting opinions its is getting near to the bottom, and most will never be able to figure it out, but will guess by about $1 - $10 from the bottom, so far the guesses by the experts have been 72, 65, next one is 63, if they get it right they will on the front page. But the comming volatility will put even the best guessers to shame. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 November 5, 2018 9 hours ago, catch22 said: This is why i dont get too involved in that kind of analysis - theres good arguments both ways for price increase or price decrease. At the end of the day, price action is KING. Can't argue with that, as usual. It would seem to be just a simple fact. Price action is KING. But would you agree that you are talking more about trading for mainly short term? I mean price action on any given day is not very useful for trading the probable price 3 weeks from now, at least in my opinion. Some traders are using different tools and instruments to trade the trend out into the longer term future so there is no one size fits all. Would you agree with that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 5, 2018 yes absolutely Dan. Although you can still use price action for slightly longer term trades by using a higher TF chart - for example the daily candle chart instead of the minute or hour charts etc. Certainly for intraday trading you use much lower TF charts than a daily chart. However using the daily chart you could do some TA for the price direction over the next week or 2... this is not something i do either as in my opinion that kind of time frame has a lot of event risk in it - trump says something, iran does something etc and all the current TA goes out the window which is why i dont trade in this way... as you can see from my previous account statement, my win rate is getting close to 100% and my losses and drawdown are very small. Im not there yet but improving month by month based on what ive found works for me. In trading - there is most certainly no 1 size fits all and what works for someone often does not for another. In fact there would be literally millions of different successful trading methods out there. Those same successful methods used by some are also unsuccessful in the hands of others due to the variable human element and emotions implementing it. All we can do is share ideas and perhaps we can take a little bit from each other to improve our own systems - thats why i engage here. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 November 6, 2018 2 hours ago, catch22 said: yes absolutely Dan. Although you can still use price action for slightly longer term trades by using a higher TF chart - for example the daily candle chart instead of the minute or hour charts etc. Certainly for intraday trading you use much lower TF charts than a daily chart. However using the daily chart you could do some TA for the price direction over the next week or 2... this is not something i do either as in my opinion that kind of time frame has a lot of event risk in it - trump says something, iran does something etc and all the current TA goes out the window which is why i dont trade in this way... as you can see from my previous account statement, my win rate is getting close to 100% and my losses and drawdown are very small. Im not there yet but improving month by month based on what ive found works for me. In trading - there is most certainly no 1 size fits all and what works for someone often does not for another. In fact there would be literally millions of different successful trading methods out there. Those same successful methods used by some are also unsuccessful in the hands of others due to the variable human element and emotions implementing it. All we can do is share ideas and perhaps we can take a little bit from each other to improve our own systems - thats why i engage here. Thanks, Catch. Good points and, even though different traders will us different trading methods, reading through your explanation almost always reveals some valuable points to consider and apply. Thanks for that! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Osama + 248 November 6, 2018 15 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said: So we have a news articel that wti is rising https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Top-Commodity-Traders-Expect-Oil-Prices-To-Drop-In-2019.html. We have gold saying on friday that prices are headed back to 80. Then we have the real top oil trader from vitrol saying next year prices will be at 65, i wonder where he got that number from 2 months after it was 76 and he said prices where going up, due to the iran sancations where now are a big nothing burger. So who do you believe? Now having said that, remember its now the winter countries need oil so they dont become extinct, ofcourse there will be a spike. But if you can time the spike youll be better off, than just swingin for the fences, or following goldman sachs $80 prediction, which indeed could happen, once the bottome is reached. At this point when you have lots of conflicting opinions its is getting near to the bottom, and most will never be able to figure it out, but will guess by about $1 - $10 from the bottom, so far the guesses by the experts have been 72, 65, next one is 63, if they get it right they will on the front page. But the comming volatility will put even the best guessers to shame. Yes...read the article. Also, there were few observers that back in May (if my memory serves me well) were saying oil to once again plunge back to $50. Now, as I mentioned, many people/traders/investors/analysts are saying it will bounce back to $80. Winter season demand of course...but will it hold its position? In my humble opinion: No. Why? I always iterate...the demand issue. Dollar is getting strengthen ...it can effect demand from emerging economies which account for more than 35% of oil demand. What do you think about sustainability of the next rally, if and when it happens. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 6, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, Osama said: Yes...read the article. Also, there were few observers that back in May (if my memory serves me well) were saying oil to once again plunge back to $50. Now, as I mentioned, many people/traders/investors/analysts are saying it will bounce back to $80. Winter season demand of course...but will it hold its position? In my humble opinion: No. Why? I always iterate...the demand issue. Dollar is getting strengthen ...it can effect demand from emerging economies which account for more than 35% of oil demand. What do you think about sustainability of the next rally, if and when it happens. Not if, but when - there will always be a next rally This is how i see things; There is confusion and divided opinion right now because everyone can see the oversold condition on the charts and common trade practice is not to sell into oversold conditions. So the 2 most likely things to occur following a selloff like weve just had is either a bounce back up driven by bargain hunters, OR the market needs some time to consolidate around current levels for a period (more or less sideways) which brings the technicals back into neutral ground before any further big moves are likely. Alot of the market makers are also watching the US midterm elections in a wait and see approach - all the markets i watch are very quiet today, noone is game to make a move. After a consolidation period - it could move up or down as there is no technical barrier either way until it gets down to the rising support line shown here on the weekly chart; Given an estimated time frame for this fall to occur (if it happens) there could be considerable support in the high $50`s as shown near the cursor if it happens quickly (weeks) - or closer to $60 if it takes a bit longer play out (months). If this support line breaks then it opens the door much lower - down into the mid forties for WTI. Now about the sustainability of the next rally, for arguments sake - lets assume the US election result (whatever the outcome) gives the bulls some motivation and we see it begin to rally. If we look at the daily and even weekly TF charts - we have been in a general upward trending market since late 2015 with the usual bumps in the road. During this time we can see higher highs and higher lows in what is an ascending channel. Rallys will likely target fibo retracement levels based off the last swing high shown here on the daily chart. There is also an extended AB=CD harmonic pattern completed at the last swing low to support these retracement levels. What remains to be seen is if the CD leg extends further down to 161% before retracement begins... if the current bottom holds and upward retracement does begin in earnest from here- then the 38% retracement to $68 seems likely in the coming fortnight. PS - ignore the bearish butterfly pattern (another harmonic pattern) it did successfully predict the current crash tho which is why i included it... i didnt notice it until just recently. Edited November 6, 2018 by catch22 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 yesterday i gave up 4k. i had 4 longs at 63.05 limit and it didnt hit went to 63,75 called broker why didnt i get filled she said, i had limits and not markets, a shame. so i shorted a while later as it was going down and so far so good. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 Why im able to predict the prices so well in crude, while experts at goldman and ventrol get it wrong over and over again. First of all though some of you think i dont know the fundamentals, and tell me i can only trade if i know fundamental and using charts is smoke and mirros, Indeed hedgefunds use 80% fundmanetals and only 20% technicals, which in all cases relies on price action. Some big institutions go easy and use the common moving averages. i usually know the fudamentals way ahead of the news, way sometimes month, all i do is i predict the best entrty point for that upcomming fundamental move, so yo u might say i have a slight edge. Now it took me some to realize that my trainding results in crude where about 10-30 times better than in forex, since i only traded crude now and then. So in forex last couple of trades where $10, 43. in oil last trades the 1.9k 5k 450, now up like 475 on last trade. So i say wow i got to drop forex and just focus on crude, Which is what im slowly doing, since to me though i like forex, but many times its dead. and a big waste of time, unless u trade the crazy pairs. which im not into. so well see how it evolves, who knows maybe one day i will live up to my name. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 So the question is now whre WTI is 63. Can it go above yesterdays high of 67.80? and then to 72? or something else? i do know the answer, but i dont want to spoil the excitement, the answer is very clear. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn November 6, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said: So the question is now whre WTI is 63. Can it go above yesterdays high of 67.80? and then to 72? or something else? i do know the answer, but i dont want to spoil the excitement, the answer is very clear. You dont seem to even know where the price went - nevermind where its going! It never went near 67.80 yesterday - nor since 28th October... what you been smoking dude??? 🤣😂 Edited November 6, 2018 by catch22 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 I think i have been giving too many freebies, but since some of you have so much nice things to say, i sometimes try to make it difficult. sorry to the nice people here. but some people wont learn any other way. Sorry for the nice guys here, but a lesson learned the hard way, especially to people who dont appreciate the few who actually know something, is a good lesson learnt. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 this was by far my best trade ever in crude. ok not up a lot only 70 points x 5 contracts, but though it went up, i knew for certain it would drop. so proud of this little system. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ November 6, 2018 sorry 140 points now x 5 contracts 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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