WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

World's Top Oil Trader Says No One Will Avoid Iran Sanctions

He is  basically saying oil prices will go up, and i agree him.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/world-s-top-oil-trader-says-no-one-will-avoid-iran-sanctions

[catch22 + 244]

8 hours ago, NAPHTA said:

Catch22, Thanks a lot. I knew about the support line and trading it, but I have never even attempted to bet on or trade the pivot point. That piece was absolutely interesting to read. Thanks for sharing really. It seems that you are of the opinion that pivot point is significant only on a weekly basis. How about intraday? IF the movement can be compared with both hourly, 9 or 20 days averages, do you think a pivot point can be established or is reliable for a 4 hour intraday chart? 

Most definately useful for intraday trading. Like i said tho - its only useful if the market is ranging. The pivots just give you zones to look for and when you get confluence with other indicators - you can decide to enter a position with all the ducks in a row. If you only have 1 duck - generally its not good enough reason to do something...

[catch22 + 244]

WTI is cuurently at the current 61% Fibo retracement and its not looking like stopping just yet. The 50% fibo retracement of the previous bull run is the next target - which is about $72.20. I doubt it will continue lower than that so if your long term position is bullish - then wait for it to get down to that level and wait to see what price action is doing. If you get upward movement from there- the next bullish run may be beginning again. Remember - this downward move had to happen and most would have expected it. The question the smart money is asking is where will go from there - keep going down or turn bullish again. Personally i have to favour another bullish run from the 72.20 zone due to political risk on iran and russia.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

With all the talk about how serious the Trump administration is about enforcing Iranian Sanctions(!), I thought the following statement from October 4th makes the President's position quite clear.  Nothing new really, just a reiteration in case anyone had forgotten what his position it.

Statement from the President

Likewise, I ended United States participation in the horrible Iran deal, which had provided a windfall for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies, funding Iran’s malign activities throughout the world. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Iranian output tracking shows more serious decline than previously reported, according to this Reuters report.

Rocked by Trump's sanctions, Iranian oil exports drop further

The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd.

That's down from at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before President Donald Trump in May withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

World's Top Oil Trader Says No One Will Avoid Iran Sanctions

He is  basically saying oil prices will go up, and i agree him.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/world-s-top-oil-trader-says-no-one-will-avoid-iran-sanctions

Just couldn't resist the headline, could you?  LOL!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

wink

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

what i find amazing even though crude dropped 3 bucks since last week all the news are telling us why crude is going up. Are they trying very hard to keep the prices up. Are they on someones payroll? This is why following fundamentals is like a waste of time. Crude is like getting clobbered and all the news is only that oil is going through the roof. But come up with a news story why crude is dropping, oh they will but only after it hits 68. Watch.

Edited October 8, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

10 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

what i find amazing even though crude dropped 3 bucks since last week all the news are telling us why crude is going up. Are they trying very hard to keep the prices up. Are they on someones payroll? This is why following fundamentals is like a waste of time. Crude is like getting clobbered and all the news is only that oil is going through the roof. But come up with a news story why crude is dropping, oh they will but only after it hits 68. Watch.

That's right.  Who owns the media?  Whose payroll are the reporters on?  The news is dicey at best and if you're lucky you can gleen a few pieces of reality.  If you're lucky.  Funny?  Not really, because there are still a lot of folks who think the news people report news.  The 2008 crash was not reported by the MSM until well into 2009 when most of it was over.  Turn it around and sheer the sheep.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

what i find amazing even though crude dropped 3 bucks since last week all the news are telling us why crude is going up. Are they trying very hard to keep the prices up. Are they on someones payroll? This is why following fundamentals is like a waste of time. Crude is like getting clobbered and all the news is only that oil is going through the roof. But come up with a news story why crude is dropping, oh they will but only after it hits 68. Watch.

Check out this narrative from the latest U.S. State Department briefing, where Heather Nauert, Spokesperson for the State Department, has a discussion with a reporter about how they don't even write their own headlines:

MS NAUERT: Matt, are you saying that you believe all the headlines that you read?

QUESTION: Heather, I read – I believe everything I read, absolutely everything.

MS NAUERT: I know you do not believe the headlines that you read.

QUESTION: But it said UN – same-sex – same --

MS NAUERT: And hold on, hold on a second, though. Reporters, you’re all the ones who are telling me that you don’t write your own headlines, that there are other people who do it.

QUESTION: I was --

MS NAUERT: And you rumble as much as anyone, if not more than anyone else in Washington, about those headline writers, who will often misinterpret stories that you yourselves have written. So I just wanted to highlight that.

QUESTION: That is neither here nor there, but I was joking when I said I believe everything I read. But I just wanted you to say – I mean, some of this stuff is like same-sex people were going to be ripped from their families and if they don’t get married they’re going to be deported. The people on the call said that that was not correct, that there would be exceptions made for people who were in tenuous circumstances, but I – but they were all on background. No one was willing to put their name to it. So can you say from the podium --

Department Press Briefing - October 2, 2018

Funny what you can find out when you go to the source.  I wasn't looking for this type of exchange, but there it was and it was telling.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok maybe i exaggerated a bit, i do watch the news but only if i have a barf bag nearby.

[Bradtech + 3]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

what i find amazing even though crude dropped 3 bucks since last week all the news are telling us why crude is going up. Are they trying very hard to keep the prices up. Are they on someones payroll? This is why following fundamentals is like a waste of time. Crude is like getting clobbered and all the news is only that oil is going through the roof. But come up with a news story why crude is dropping, oh they will but only after it hits 68. Watch.

I was talking with my Dad about this last week.  There is so much oil being drilled out of the ground where we live Rigs going up everywhere. Roads destroyed by oilfield trucks. You can't get on a major highway without seeing oilfield truck after oilfield truck.  You keep seeing build ups & all the money people can talk about is why it should be $100+.  I remember reading something about Goldman believing oil would be $90 by Christmas at the beginning of this year. If all these money people have long term bets on oil being that & they have a ton of money. They will be buying all the bloggers +  media folks to write fear monger stories.

  So there is so much fear of <insert boogeyman predictions>.  If it wasn't Iranian sanctions it would be something else.  There's so much inflation in oil price right now based off hysteria of things that never came to pass. First it was  Trump was going to blow up something oil related in Syria when he attacked Assad.  That never happened and it never corrected. Then the hurricane Harvey runup when there wasn't any oil infrastructure really out there.  Iran sanctions did come to pass but people have made up most of the loss of oil from that even though it wasn't all of it.  The boom+bust nature really hurts the local economy here. I hate to see people lose their jobs in the oil & gas industry.

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

good point

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

@Bradtech  Welcome.  Always good to have someone on the ground to lend some reality.  Sorry for your community's boom or bust issues, but at least there are jobs for now.  Save and invest in U.S. treasuries, at least, to protect some of the money made during the boom cycle.

What do you guys know about the pipeline situation?

[NAPHTA + 33]

2 hours ago, catch22 said:

WTI is cuurently at the current 61% Fibo retracement and its not looking like stopping just yet. The 50% fibo retracement of the previous bull run is the next target - which is about $72.20. I doubt it will continue lower than that so if your long term position is bullish - then wait for it to get down to that level and wait to see what price action is doing. If you get upward movement from there- the next bullish run may be beginning again. Remember - this downward move had to happen and most would have expected it. The question the smart money is asking is where will go from there - keep going down or turn bullish again. Personally i have to favour another bullish run from the 72.20 zone due to political risk on iran and russia.

Don't know what happened at WTI but Brent bounced up at 82,67, quite far from the support line (approx.81.8).

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 hours ago, catch22 said:

trend line support is beginning to break just now... just cracked below 74 and not yet candle closed on the 4H so it still could bounce yet. as this is asian session only, the bigger move will come when europe and US sessions open... what cannot be known is whether this is the needed pullback from previous overbought levels OR is it the beginning of a new downward trend... it is futile to attempt to make accurate predictions on the latter and how far it will go.

Nice move up this morning.  I remember you've said it has done this at the beginning of the session on most days, these last few weeks.  What do you see with the candles at this point?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

good point

What do you make of this up move this morning?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Nothing. all that is, is someone put a big order at 74.25 and was buying it up from 73,50 Opportunity buying, and. But eventually should drop., once those orders are filled will drop again,.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

@Osama Did you get out of your short?  Or are you waiting/hoping/praying for more more more?  (That's what I'm doing since I need it to go back up to 74.50-75 to break even on my long.  LOL!  Hmmm......)  🙃

[ATK + 355]

54 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

@Osama Did you get out of your short?  Or are you waiting/hoping/praying for more more more?  (That's what I'm doing since I need it to go back up to 74.50-75 to break even on my long.  LOL!  Hmmm......)  🙃

I was wondering why you were ignoring some of the bearish news last week!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, ATK said:

I was wondering why you were ignoring some of the bearish news last week!

Yeah, I still think WTI will go up to @ $90 and my contract still has 18 days to expiry.  But really, I got bored sitting on the side and decided to put my money where my mouth was.  Damned mouth.

[ATK + 355]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yeah, I still think WTI will go up to @ $90 and my contract still has 18 days to expiry.  But really, I got bored sitting on the side and decided to put my money where my mouth was.  Damned mouth.

Net long positions jumped in the past two weeks by 50%. Right now we have to perfect storm for a nice long squeeze

with the majority of the people opening positions recently, I'm sure it won't take much in terms of pushing this lower to get a bunch of them to close which would further push the price down. On top of that if we can hit some stop losses as well, could cause a cascade effect and shoot the price down more! That's what I'm hoping for haha

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK i really see wti going down. down down down. but then up up up to maybe 99.97 or higher. we shall see.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

ATK i really see wti going down. down down down. but then up up up to maybe 99.97 or higher. we shall see.

Timeframe?

[NAPHTA + 33]

7 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yeah, I still think WTI will go up to @ $90 and my contract still has 18 days to expiry.  But really, I got bored sitting on the side and decided to put my money where my mouth was.  Damned mouth.

Open another LP tomorrow!...if you get the chance. Today is a holiday and volumes relatively low.