Electric Cars Making Gas Cars As Obsolete As ‘Flip Phones’

Last week, Wall Street Journal auto columnist Dan Neil discussed why buying a new IC engine car would be a big mistake — the equivalent of buying a flip phone in a world of smart phones. 
This financial calculus is based not just on the fact that EVs have become technologically superior in every respect and have a vastly lower operating cost. But it’s also the result of the price and performance of EVs improving so rapidly that many major countries, like China, India, the UK, and France, are planning to ban or phase out gas-burning cars in the coming years.
"Buying a gas car today would leave you with a financial "albatross" that has little resale value", warns Wall Street Journal.

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3 minutes ago, AdrianC said:

"Buying a gas car today would leave you with a financial "albatross" that has little resale value", warns Wall Street Journal.

Welp, yet another reason why I take anything the WSJ says with a few grains of salt.  This is WSJ opinion being presented as fact.

Time for me to trot out my old tagline signature again ...

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

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(edited)

Tom is right. Electric vehicles do not hold their value well as newer models with longer ranges come on the market. On the other hand, the costs of operating an EV are much lower than for an ICE vehicle both for maintenance and for energy costs. EVs have many fewer parts than ICE vehicles. And they give you a virtuous glow in some circles. Buy an EV and hold it tight.

Edited by Janet Alderton
grammar
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3 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Tom is right. Electric vehicles do not hold their value well as newer models with longer ranges come on the market. On the other hand, the costs of operating an EV are much lower than for an ICE vehicle both for maintenance and for energy costs. EVs have many fewer parts than ICE vehicles. And they give you a virtuous glow in some circles. Buy an EV and hold it tight.

Tesla's hold their value extremely well compared to similar ICE. 

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8 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Tom is right. Electric vehicles do not hold their value well as newer models with longer ranges come on the market. On the other hand, the costs of operating an EV are much lower than for an ICE vehicle both for maintenance and for energy costs. EVs have many fewer parts than ICE vehicles. And they give you a virtuous glow in some circles. Buy an EV and hold it tight.

Here's your problem with the Tesla car, Janet.  Have a minor collision with it and the car is scrap.  The bodywork does not crumple, the material shatters.  Tesla itself will not repair most collisions, and have few "authorized" repair shops, who in turn charge outrageous fees.  What buyers do not fully understand is just how fragile these cars are when hit.

Once the insurance companies develop an experience curve with Tesla, I anticipate that collision premiums will go through the roof. Then what?   

 

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Personally, I anticipate the next wave of auto development will be in steam power.  They will be boiler-less, and most will be fired by ethanol or methanol.  And if you can build one that runs on raw bitumen, hey!

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6 hours ago, DA? said:

Tesla's hold their value extremely well compared to similar ICE. 

Yes they do!  I was just down at the used car lot the other day and...................

But seriously, once you get passed the people who couldn't wait in line or afford a new one, the used Tesla market is limitless!  It's true, it's limitless, according to the data from Tesla and others.

Why, at this one website there are 1,063 used Teslas available for sale right now.  I just don't know how they're going to sell all those cars!  So many!

Used Tesla for Sale

Of course, there are more balanced views like this one from electrek:

Tesla Model 3 go to used market in impressive numbers, but doesn’t find many takers with high premiums

 

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Every dollar invested in ICE engines today is a lost dollar. The future is electric and autonomous. Car companies in general will suffer, but the public will enjoy cheap transportation.

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1 minute ago, JunoTen said:

Every dollar invested in ICE engines today is a lost dollar. The future is electric and autonomous. Car companies in general will suffer, but the public will enjoy cheap transportation.

Stellar comment!  I didn't read anyone here talking about investing in IC engines.  Most people are talking about what it would take to get them to buy an EV.  Personally, I buy cars based on what I like, how much speed/power they produce, how reliable they are, what the warranty is, and whether or not I can afford the payments (or pay cash).  I don't really care if it's an ICE or an EV, just so it meets my wants and needs and I can afford it.

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1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yes they do!  I was just down at the used car lot the other day and...................

But seriously, once you get passed the people who couldn't wait in line or afford a new one, the used Tesla market is limitless!  It's true, it's limitless, according to the data from Tesla and others.

Why, at this one website there are 1,063 used Teslas available for sale right now.  I just don't know how they're going to sell all those cars!  So many!

Used Tesla for Sale

Of course, there are more balanced views like this one from electrek:

Tesla Model 3 go to used market in impressive numbers, but doesn’t find many takers with high premiums

 

Those prices on the first article show nicely how Tesla's keep their value compare to Merc's or BMW's. The second article shows how some people were prepared at the beginning to pay far more than the sticker value of the Model 3, some of these may well have been other companies wanting to tear it apart to have a look inside.

The problem for EV's is the tech is improving so fast, as in the early days of digital cameras. You buy one and next year it seems so out of date. But for ICE's the second hand value in a few years will suddenly drop off as EV's become better and cheaper.

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1 hour ago, DA? said:

Those prices on the first article show nicely how Tesla's keep their value compare to Merc's or BMW's. The second article shows how some people were prepared at the beginning to pay far more than the sticker value of the Model 3, some of these may well have been other companies wanting to tear it apart to have a look inside.

The problem for EV's is the tech is improving so fast, as in the early days of digital cameras. You buy one and next year it seems so out of date. But for ICE's the second hand value in a few years will suddenly drop off as EV's become better and cheaper.

So I guess you ignored the tidbit about there being only 1,063 used Teslas available for sale (at least on that website), while the CarMax website alone shows 43,204 used Mercedes-Benz's.  The second link I provided also gave some valid reasons for the values being high on the Teslas.  I think you got my point.

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2 hours ago, DA? said:

Those prices on the first article show nicely how Tesla's keep their value compare to Merc's or BMW's. The second article shows how some people were prepared at the beginning to pay far more than the sticker value of the Model 3, some of these may well have been other companies wanting to tear it apart to have a look inside.

The problem for EV's is the tech is improving so fast, as in the early days of digital cameras. You buy one and next year it seems so out of date. But for ICE's the second hand value in a few years will suddenly drop off as EV's become better and cheaper.

Giggles out loud........

It’s just a matter of days, months or a few years before EV’s are so comparable, on all levels including affordability, that we see a repeat of Henry Ford’s success and everybody and their dog is buying one making ICE’s virtually Jurassic.

 

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8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The bodywork does not crumple, the material shatters.  Tesla itself will not repair most collisions, and have few "authorized" repair shops, who in turn charge outrageous fees.  What buyers do not fully understand is just how fragile these cars are when hit.  

Never seen aluminum shatter

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Just out of curiosity, how many folks on this forum have driven a Tesla?

I've driven the Model 3 and found it to be a very impressive car, and I can absolutely see my next vehicle being electric. Given that I have almost 40 years in the oil industry I think it telling that an EV could make that much of an impression.

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Just got back from a 1,500-mile four-day trip over the weekend to attend a wedding in Amarillo Texas. I am impressed with electric cars but for me, for long trips with lots of luggage, it’s still my GMC Yukon as my vehicle of choice. Saying that ICE autos are history is hard for me to believe. I'm not ready to turn over my driving to an autonomous vehicle, I want my freedom to drive. As more electrics enter the auto pool, they will temper gasoline demand and prices, thus extending the viability of the ICE auto for years to come. It’s interesting to consider that the two types of autos may actually complement each other.

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On 1/2/2019 at 5:50 PM, AdrianC said:

Last week, Wall Street Journal auto columnist Dan Neil discussed why buying a new IC engine car would be a big mistake — the equivalent of buying a flip phone in a world of smart phones. 
This financial calculus is based not just on the fact that EVs have become technologically superior in every respect and have a vastly lower operating cost. But it’s also the result of the price and performance of EVs improving so rapidly that many major countries, like China, India, the UK, and France, are planning to ban or phase out gas-burning cars in the coming years.
"Buying a gas car today would leave you with a financial "albatross" that has little resale value", warns Wall Street Journal.

Just bought my 3/4 ton Power Wagon, with a nice 400hp NA V8, and intend to keep it to my end, thank you. My son then will be highly interested taking it over, and run it past some fragile EVs out of juice...... I guarantee, it will be around and thumpin' when there is no more printed Wall Street Journal...... And when Houston floods again, there will be exactly ZERO EVs on the road.

Slide1.jpg

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(edited)

Reality check. Tesla Model 3 achieved a 5 star overall rating from the NHTSA. They also achieved 5 stars in every category and subcategory. It's worth noting that a vehicle can get a 5 star overall rating without getting 5 stars in every subcategory.

Tesla Model 3 NHTSA side pole crash test

https://youtu.be/ABEznFFbmJw

 

Edited by shadowkin
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On 1/2/2019 at 3:50 PM, AdrianC said:

Last week, Wall Street Journal auto columnist Dan Neil discussed why buying a new IC engine car would be a big mistake — the equivalent of buying a flip phone in a world of smart phones. 
This financial calculus is based not just on the fact that EVs have become technologically superior in every respect and have a vastly lower operating cost. But it’s also the result of the price and performance of EVs improving so rapidly that many major countries, like China, India, the UK, and France, are planning to ban or phase out gas-burning cars in the coming years.
"Buying a gas car today would leave you with a financial "albatross" that has little resale value", warns Wall Street Journal.

Tesla still losing money. https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2019-01-02/tesla-produced-61-394-model-3s-in-fourth-quarter

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5 hours ago, Tom Blazek said:

Just got back from a 1,500-mile four-day trip over the weekend to attend a wedding in Amarillo Texas. I am impressed with electric cars but for me, for long trips with lots of luggage, it’s still my GMC Yukon as my vehicle of choice. Saying that ICE autos are history is hard for me to believe. I'm not ready to turn over my driving to an autonomous vehicle, I want my freedom to drive. As more electrics enter the auto pool, they will temper gasoline demand and prices, thus extending the viability of the ICE auto for years to come. It’s interesting to consider that the two types of autos may actually complement each other.

Many households own more than one car, so I can see them having an EV for around town and then a gasoline or hybrid for longer trips.

I've never bought into the hype of autonomous driving and think it will be at least a decade before they can even begin to approach what the public would call acceptable, as in entrust your life to a computer to drive for you.

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1 hour ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Just bought my 3/4 ton Power Wagon, with a nice 400hp NA V8, and intend to keep it to my end, thank you. My son then will be highly interested taking it over, and run it past some fragile EVs out of juice...... I guarantee, it will be around and thumpin' when there is no more printed Wall Street Journal...... And when Houston floods again, there will be exactly ZERO EVs on the road.

Slide1.jpg

Good for you, but I don't think EV's are quite as fragile as you think. I'm a pickup owner myself (F150), and yes I'll keep it for those long trips or hauling stuff. but my next car will be electric. Don't knock them unless you've tried one.

I also seem to remember 1000's of motorists being stranded because they ran out of gas trying to evacuate ahead of hurricane Rita. 

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As an MEE I can tell you that the infrastructure will have to undergo a trillion-dollar (what's the mod word here?) oh yeah MAKEOVER to feed hungry lithium batteries. Make that double-digit trillions if power generation is included. Substitution of alternating current to direct current transmission lines and intertie points. Electrical is based on WORST CASE load scenarios.

And what pray tell will be the source of thousands of gigawatt hours of power? Nuclear is out, so is wind, hydrocarbons, including coal, natural gas, and hydroelectric. Shall I be sarcastic and bring up the words LUNAR PANELS?

Fusion has not occurred yet and probably will not for another twenty to thirty years as a reliable heat generator.

It's going to take a titanic influx of money to deal with the logistics of an electrical MAKEOVER. Something along the lines of four to five dollars per kWh. This can be compared to a large group waiting for dinner and a can of Pork & Beans awaiting the diners. Price a single Klystron Thyristor and see what awaits in the future.

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23 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Electric vehicles do not hold their value

There is data out there on the Model S, X compared to ICE vehicles that say otherwise. Model 3 it's too soon to say but I think it'll be a similar story.

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1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Tesla still losing money

Tesla was profitable last quarter at $1.75 a share. I've seen some analysts' consensus that they will again be profitable this quarter at $1 a share. Lower probably due to investments in GF3 in China. They report in about a month. We'll see.

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(edited)

16 minutes ago, David Eidell said:

As an MEE I can tell you that the infrastructure will have to undergo a trillion-dollar (what's the mod word here?) oh yeah MAKEOVER to feed hungry lithium batteries. Make that double-digit trillions if power generation is included. Substitution of alternating current to direct current transmission lines and intertie points. Electrical is based on WORST CASE load scenarios.

And what pray tell will be the source of thousands of gigawatt hours of power? Nuclear is out, so is wind, hydrocarbons, including coal, natural gas, and hydroelectric. Shall I be sarcastic and bring up the words LUNAR PANELS?

Fusion has not occurred yet and probably will not for another twenty to thirty years as a reliable heat generator.

It's going to take a titanic influx of money to deal with the logistics of an electrical MAKEOVER. Something along the lines of four to five dollars per kWh. This can be compared to a large group waiting for dinner and a can of Pork & Beans awaiting the diners. Price a single Klystron Thyristor and see what awaits in the future.

Plenty of natural gas will be used but also lots of dirty coal where it is cheaper. My preference is natural gas vehicles of all types. 

Edited by ronwagn
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15 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Personally, I anticipate the next wave of auto development will be in steam power.  They will be boiler-less, and most will be fired by ethanol or methanol.  And if you can build one that runs on raw bitumen, hey!

Maybe, but use natural gas instead. https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/148416-are-steam-cars-poised-for-an-epic-comeback

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